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The question on everyone's lips is whether Tom Watson can roll back the years for a sentimental win following his exceptional first 3 rounds at Turnberry. It's incredibly close - perhaps too close to call - so we've created a special version of the predictor which takes into account the current positions of those players in contention (+2 or better)
Click here to use the predictor and change the results based on your own opinions!
So, with all things considered, our predictor suggests the following top 5:
| 1 | Retief Goosen | 11/2 | Bet 365 |
| 2 | Jim Furyk | 9/1 | Bet 365 |
| 3 | Ross Fisher | 4/1 | Paddy Power |
| 4 | Lee Westwood | 9/2 | Bet Fred |
| 5 | Tom Watson | 15/2 | Coral |
Odds were correct as of 07:00BST 19.7.09 but will naturally fluctuate - click the bookmaker link (in blue) to check the current price. One point of note is that at the time of writing, Bet 365's account opening offer is back up to £200 worth of free bets. This offer comes and goes so if the graphic below is still showing £200 of free bets when you read this, and you're not a Bet 365 customer, then click on the link below to get started!
So the computer thinks that Retief Goosen will pull back a 2-shot deficit on Tom Watson to make it a hat-trick of Majors. Given the difficulty of the course, the chance of an outsider making a late charge is very slim - on that basis the winner is very likely to come from one of the guys currently close to the top of the leaderboard...
Steve Bamford's tips: (posted 14.7.09)
The Open Championship is the toughest tournament in professional golf and Turnberry is one of the very best courses in the world. A match made in heaven! Links golf is a real specialism that many in the field won’t ever grasp. Wind, rain, tremendously thick rough and dune grass, when a tee shot inevitably strays from its intended line. Add to that huge steeply faced bunkers and massive putting surfaces that are severely contoured and you start to understand what the challenge is that faces the field this week and in every Open Championship.
Other golf pundits will creatively tip Tiger Woods to win this week. What do they get paid for! However I like to offer a little value for followers with a mix of selections. We have taken Woods out of the equation on some tips by backing E/W in the w/o Woods market. Of note to everybody this week:
Paddy Power are not only offering a FREE BET of £10 BUT they are offering Top 7 each-way places for the Open. Superb! Click this Paddy Power link and get on-board.
This week’s Marking Your Card feature is superb and highlights that Masters form in April is intrinsically linked to who wins the following Open Championship in July. My selections are based around this great FREE insight.
Jim Furyk 1.5 pts EW w/o Woods @ 25-1 Paddy Power. When it comes to major championships, Jim Furyk is the real deal. Furyk is one of those rare ‘hardy’ Americans. He plays well in wind, rain or tropical 35C heat. 18 Major Top 10s and tied with Tiger Woods on 6 Open Championship Top 20s. Jim finished 5th at Royal Birkdale last year. In superb form in the US with 4 Top 10s in last 4 PGA Tour tournaments. Likely he won’t beat Woods but in the without Woods market 25-1 with Paddy Power is good business.
Kenny Perry 1.25 pts EW w/o Woods @ 45-1 Bet 365 < £100 Free Bets Promo With Furyk, Kenny Perry is one of the few who can offer a real challenge to Tiger Woods this week. To be honest I’m bemused that he’s at such a good price in the w/o Tiger market! Perry has everything needed for links golf. A superb driver and ball striker who can play well in wind and can putt beautifully. Should have won the Masters and with 2 PGA Tour victories so far in 2009, has the game to contend at Turnberry plus the experience with 3 Top 20 Open finishes in his career.
Ernie Els 1.25pts EW @ 35-1 Paddy Power < Pays out up to 7th Place The big South African is timing his run to contend for the Claret Jug perfectly. I can hear the doubters already: “Els isn’t the player he was… has had a terrible 2009.” The facts of the matter are that Els is in a different class when it comes to links golf. His record at the Open and Dunhill Links Championship at St Andrews is top draw. On top of that, his game is on an upward trajectory. 13th at Loch Lomond and 9th on his last PGA Tour outing doesn’t shout “out of form” to me.
Stephen Ames 0.75pt EW @ 125-1 Boylesports < Pays out up to 8th Place Canadian Ames always starts to show his face near the top of the leaderboard in tough tournaments where the wind blows. Forecast is for wind across both Thursday and Friday. With 2 previous Top 10 Open Championship results and 6 Major Top 10s Ames has plenty of experience.
Thomas Levet 1pt EW @ 125-1 Paddy Power < Pays out upto 7th Place Here is Levet’s recent 09 record. 1st Spanish Open - 8th Irish Open (coastal course) - 9th BMW PGA Championship – 45th US Open - 9th BMW Championship. Not too shabby. Then you look at his Open Championship record. 2nd in 02 followed by 5th in 04. I’d be extremely happy with 7th in 2009 and I’m confident Levet won’t be a mile away.
I’ll finish with three decent longer place shots.
Anthony Wall 1.5pts Top 20 @ 8-1 William Hill < £100 Free Bets Promotion This Englishman loves links golf. Plays St Andrews well every year at the Dunhill Links Championship and has finished 11th in the Open in 2006. Wall already has multiple Top 10s on the European Tour in 2009.
Robert Rock 1pt Top 20 @ 14-1 Skybet Englishman Rock who hails as far from the sea as possible in Staffordshire plays well when he gets a sniff of the sea air. Robert finished 2nd at the coastally based Irish Open when he lost out to Shane Lowry in a play off.
Tom Lehman 1pt Top 20 @ 22-1 Skybet I would not be surprised at all to see a ‘senior’ contend this week. Greg Norman arguably should have taken home the Claret Jug last year. Lehman still contends on tough courses on the main PGA Tour and loves major tough courses and conditions.
PW's tips:
I've picked a few alternative markets where I think there's value so as to dodge Tiger, plus a couple of others:
Padraig Harrington 2.5 pts EW 28-1 w/o Woods Expekt < £25 deposit bonus Can Harrington make it a hat-trick of wins? Early season form would suggest not, however he's followed his winning ritual of the previous 2 years and once again won the low-key Irish PGA last week to get himself into the right mindset. Don't be at all surprised if he's competing here once again.
Richard Sterne 2 pts Win 18-1 Top South African Totesport < £100 Free Bets Promotion 11th last week in Scotland and could well improve on that this week. His tee-to-green game is improving week after week and this will be a stern(!) test of his abilities.
Kenny Perry 1.5 pts EW 45-1 w/o Woods @ Bet 365 < £100 Free Bets Promo Agree with everything Steve said above, has a great chance of winning this market if Harrington fails in his bid.
Greg Norman 1.5 pt EW 100-1 Top Rest of World William Hill < £100 Free Bets Promotion Came close last year and can still compete at the highest level when his game is on song. This market takes virtually 3-quarters of the field out of the equation, including TW and a number of fancied Americans. Has an incredible Open Championship record and can reward EW punters once again.
Chad Campbell 1 pt EW 250-1 SkyBet < Pays out up to 6th Place The 35 year-old Texan was voted 'player most likely to win a major' in 2003 - perhaps now's the time to turn that promise into reality. Played himself into contention at the John Deere without overly exerting himself, proving his game is in good shape - if he can get close to repeating that tee-to-green performance then he'll be in contention. Lost out to Angel Cabrera in the Augusta playoff earlier this term and will have learnt a lot from that amazing experience. His best Open Championship performance came at Royal St George's in 2003 with a T-15 behind Ben Curtis - has the quality in my view to improve on that and reward EW punters at a long, long price.
All odds correct when published, but are naturally subject to fluctuation.