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Steve Bamford's tips for the 2011 US PGA Championship at Atlanta Athletic Club
The 2011 season has reached the final Major, the US PGA Championship, which this year looks set to be an absolute cracker. Whilst compiling these tips it became obvious to me that this is the most open Major championship played since Tiger Wood’s winless streak back in 2003/4. Back then Tiger went through a process of swing adjustments, split from Butch Harmon’s tutelage, fell to Number 2 on the PGA Tour money list in consecutive seasons and in September 2004 he lost his World Number 1 status to Vijay Singh when the Fijian won the PGA Championship at Whistling Straits. Amazing how golf throws up these cycles and again we find ourselves in a 'post-Tiger domination' period where a whole host of top-rank players could easily win this week on a course which in itself throws up some considerable intricacies, but more of that in a while.
Luke Donald and Lee Westwood sit atop the World Golf Rankings these days and have mustered the grand total of zero majors between them. Indeed the world of Major golf is a different place: Clarke, McIlroy, Schwartzel, Kaymer, Oosthuizen, McDowell, Yang, Cink, Glover, all first time winners. Only Augusta with El Pato (09) and Lefty (10) has generated repeat Major winners in the past 3 seasons. You’ll also notice that the Americans haven’t won any of the past 6 majors………oh the shame of it! This week’s PGA Championship though at the Highlands Course, Atlanta Athletic Club seriously favours the Americans both in terms numbers because of the entry requirements which heavily favour the PGA Tour over the European Tour and secondly the fact that the championship is being played in sweltering Georgia on Bermuda greens.
Before I go into more detail around the course and the reasoning behind this week’s PGA Championship tips, I have to highlight 188Bet’s No Risk Bet, which is perfect for covering off one of the two “big guns” Mickelson or Woods (who has still finished 4th in 3 of his last 4 majors). Open an account and they will give you a no lose £25 free bet which is fully refunded if your bet doesn’t pay out. So for the occasional golf punter place £25 on Tiger and a win returns £525 at the current price at the time of publishing. For those of you who think Mickelson will deliver (he does have a habit of delivering in Major championships) £25 delivers a £325 return. If they don’t triumph you get the £25 refunded. Backing either Mickelson or Woods with effectively 188Bet’s money is what I call a no-brainer!!! Click here for details.
The Highlands Course hosted the 2001 PGA Championship, where David Toms posted a championship record score of -15 to triumph over Phil Mickelson. Since then the original Trent Jones design has received a redesign from Rees Jones in 2006. As with all Trent Jones Senior tracks, the Highland Course is tree-lined so errant drives are heavily penalised and the course now has harsh cross bunkers positioned from 280 to 340 yards. The front 9 is “open” and has a real championship feel where scoring is possible but difficult. The longer hitters will benefit with a little more space off the tee. The back 9 though tightens considerably and feels far more like another classical Trent Jones design, Valderrama. The course itself will play to 7,467 yards and, unlike Hazeltine and Whistling Straits, we are not talking about a Par 72. Instead it’s a Par 70. Ouch!!! Holes 1,2, 8, 11, 12 and 18 are long dog leg left holes favouring a draw and the four Par 3s are punishing at 184, 207, 219 and 260 yards (the famous 15th) respectively. Don’t be fooled into thinking that the course will play it’s full length every day, but it has to favour those with controlled power.
On top of Highland’s long Par 70 format, the green surface has recently been re-laid from Bent to Bermuda. The greens on the Highlands Course are undulating and set to run at 13 on the stimp. Again the Bermuda green set-up is a Major rarity and adds a whole new dimension when picking those that will triumph. Interestingly we’re promised that the Champion Bermuda greens will respond to shots from the fairway but not the rough. Target score for the winner will be -8 to -10 and the weather itself will be tranquil but devilishly hot with 90 degree temperatures across all 4 days.
So who to go for? The PGA Championship has a history of producing winners who have already captured a tournament win in that season. It continually favours those who average over 290 yards driving and has a crazy habit of favouring form players especially those who played well and semi-contended at the Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone last week.
A number of the bookmakers are paying out 6 Places Each-Way rather than the standard 5 Places regular golf punters have to put up with for the rest of the season. So be careful who you place Each-Way bets with.
Finally our European Tour tipster Paul Williams has researched a number of truly superb PGA Championship long-shots so click here for his well researched low-down. Remember recent longshot major winners include Clarke (highlighted by us) at 200/1, Glover at 225/1, Cabrera at 150/1 and Yang at 125/1 (again on our longshots list). It happens!
Every week we use 10 staking points – it can be £1 or £1,000 – your choice on the following players for the PGA Championship:
Rory McIlroy 2pts Win 11/1 with
£100 In free bets plus 6 places Each Way, get it here:
I tipped “Rors” at both Muirfield and Congressional and he sure didn’t let me down at either. The US Open champion’s Major record is amazing. 7 Top 20 finishes including 5 Top 10s in 11 professional Major appearances is legendary and Atlanta Athletic this week will suit him down to the ground, so I’m placing a little saver bet on the Holywood boy at a market leading 11/1.
We never fancied McIlroy at Sandwich as the crazy media pressure and gnarly course was never going to produce a contending performance. However the signs were back at Firestone last week, where McIlroy averaged 315 yards off the tee and was the 4th best player in the field for Greens in Regulation. Only the Bent Poa greens in Ohio didn’t suit. That won’t be a problem in Atlanta where the fast Bermuda greens will be perfect for Rory. His first tournament victory was on the Bermuda carpet of Dubai in 2009. In fact Rory has finished in the Top 5 an amazing 9 times through 2009/ 2011 on the Bermuda greens of the European Tour in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Hong Kong and the season closing Dubai World Championship. You can also add another Bermuda 3rd behind Manassero earlier this season in the sweltering heat of Malaysia the week after his Augusta final round capitulation. If nothing else that says absolutely everything you need to know about McIlroy’s chances this week. Make no bones about it, Rory can deliver the Chubby Chandler Grand Slam this week. RESULT: T64
Steve Stricker 1pt EW 28/1 with
Get £200 in free bets plus
6 places Each Way via
this link:
You are probably as surprised as I was when I realised that Wisconsin’s Steve Stricker is the highest rated American in the World Rankings at No5 and that’s by a considerable way from Lefty who sits at 6. However it’s true to say that Stricker is a class act whose next step is to genuinely challenge for a Major title and for me it could well be this week. I’ll build my case:
2011 has produced his most consistent major performances with 11th at Augusta, 19th at Congressional and a truly credible 12th at Sandwich. 11 PGA Tour wins, a starring Ryder Cup role at Celtic Manor last year (where he beat talisman Westwood in the singles) allied to 9 Major Top 10 finishes says to me that Stricker is ready to jump to the next level. Incoming form has always been key to success at the PGA and from Muirfield onwards Steve has a form line of 1-19-1-12 and an encouraging 14th at Firestone last week. That’s key for me as it shows that Stricker has got his head around the need to “peak” for major success plus he averaged over 300 yards per drive in Ohio so when he needs it he can explode off the tee.
Yes, I’ll admit that Stricker plays best on fast Bent, but when you look at the tracks where he has performed best many of them are technical Par 70 venues with Bermuda greens: East Lake (15 minutes down the road from this week’s venue) 5th (98) & 6th (09); Waialee 3rd (96/10) & 4th (07/08), Copperhead 4th (09) & 8th (10). Extend this to his best Major performances and they are all on Par 70 tracks: 5th Olympic Course (98), 2nd Sahalee (98), 5th Pinehurst (99), 6th Winged Foot (06). Stricker knows that his best chance of major success will be in the US Open or PGA Championship on a Par 70 course so don’t be surprised to see him hanging around this weekend. RESULT: T12
Nick Watney 1.25pt EW 35/1
with
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6 places Each Way via
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Butch Harmon knows a thing or two about delivering Major winners. The names Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson say everything. His latest crop of players aren’t doing too badly either with Adam Scott capturing the Bridgestone Invitational last week and seaside specialist Dustin Johnson finishing 2nd in The Open after contending at the US Open and PGA Championships in 2010. But for me this week one of the Americans most likely to break the European domination on home soil is another Harmon coached talent, step forward Nick Watney.
The Californian who bases himself in Las Vegas close to Harmon’s Rio Secco, Nevada base has the all-round game to triumph this week and ,oh yes, he loves Bermuda greens. 4 PGA Tour wins have been gleaned in a 7 year top-league career and the courses he’s won at tell the whole story. His first triumph was in 2007 in hot sticky conditions on the Bermuda greens of TPC Louisiana. 2009 (the year where Watney hit the world scene) saw a superb victory at the classical major venue of Torrey Pines. The Florida swing that season saw a return to his favoured Bermuda greens and his world 'breakout' 2nd place finish behind Lefty at the WGC event at Doral and 4th at Bay Hill. With guaranteed Major appearances now on his schedule 2010 produced 7th at Augusta and an impressive 7th at St Andrews. Watney was white hot and he led the PGA Championship after 56 holes at Whistling Straits before almost inevitably capitulating with a final round 81. But what truly impresses me with Nick is his ability to continually learn and play well on tough golf courses, the domain of major champions. He bounced back in 2010 with a superb 4th in the Tour Championship at East Lake (translates perfectly to AAC) and hasn’t looked back in 2011 with a 3rd win at the WGC event at Doral (on Bermuda) and then in my mind the final piece of the jigsaw came with a win on the tight and technical Par 70 at Aronimink on Bent greens in July where he hit over 70% of fairways. A free-wheeling 23rd in Firestone last week was just what he needed and I think Watney will be right in the mixer this week. RESULT: T12
Sergio Garcia 1pt EW 60/1
with
£100 In free bets plus 6 places Each Way, get it here:
Sergio has resurfaced in 2011 and Atlanta Athletic Club should suit Garcia who thrives on technical Par 70 set-ups. After all, his last win was at TPC Sawgrass in 2008! Now I’m not saying that Sergio will finally capture his first Major title this week in Georgia, but at 15/1 I’m more than prepared to stake that he will be in the mix for a Top 6 finish. His recent form-line starting with 12th at The Players in May has been very impressive across June and July with 12-20-MC-7-2-9 containing Top 10s at Congressional and Sandwich, allied to an excruciatingly close play off loss to fellow Spaniard Pablo Larrazabal in Munich. In truth Garcia should have won but hey he hadn’t been in contention for a win since November 2008 when he won the HSBC Champions in Shanghai.
Garcia in his prime is true quality as 17 Major Top 10s including 9 Top 5 finishes signify and looking at his season stats I’d say the Highlands Course and it’s long technical Par 70 Bermuda set-up will suit Sergio to a tee as scoring won’t be low. After all Garcia still averages 299 yards off the tee on the PGA Tour and sits in 7th on the European Tour for Greens in Regulation. Marry those current skill stats to his 2008 PGA Tour campaign highlights: 1st TPC Sawgrass (-5), 3rd St Jude (-3), 2nd Oakland Hills - PGA Champ (-1), 2nd East Lake (-7) and you can see why I’m on El Nino this week. RESULT: T12
Kim Kyung-tae 0.75pt EW 150/1
with
£100 In free bets plus 6 places Each Way, get it here:
To close I’m taking a flyer on the precocious South Korean talent that is KT Kim. As I always say to tipping partner Paul Williams, there is often a Far East raider who gets into a major mix and 24 year old Kim is both in-form and seemingly fearless. 9 professional tournament victories including 4 on the Japanese Tour and 1 on the Asian Tour is truly amazing as is a current form-line that reads 2-12-30(US Open)-2-MC(Sandwich)-1-6. I’m certainly not surprised with the MC at Sandwich, but that was his first MC in 5 Major appearances. Take Sandwich away and you’ve got one of the hottest golfers on the planet. The 6th place finish was at the World Golf Championship event at Firestone where he ranked 3rd in Fairways Hit, 22nd in Greens in Regulation and 8th for Putts per Round.
His high driving accuracy and GIR% based game also paid dividends at Congressional where he went into the final round in 9th place. Startlingly Kim now sits in the Top 20 on the World Golf Rankings and most golf experts have hardly heard of him let alone the wider public! I’m going to take advantage and grab 37/1 on a Top 6 finish on a talent who if he finds himself in the same position as he did at the US Open in June won’t make the same mistakes in the final round. RESULT: T59
Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 19:45BST 9.8.11 but naturally subject to fluctuation
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