Congratulations if you were on-board favourite Scottie Scheffler at a best Monday price of 5/1 for the Open Championship. Scheffler has won 12 of his last 32 starts – that’s a 38% success rate – starting with the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Plus he’s finished T2 in a further 3 of those 32 starts.
Onto this week and the seventh time we have visited the 3M Open, played at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. 3M are based in Minneapolis and have sponsored a PGA Tour Champions Tour event in the area since 2001. 3M have certainly stepped up to the mark, parting with the circa $16 million required to sponsor a PGA Tour event. Jhonattan Vegas defends with Akshay Bhatia, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Max Homa, Tom Kim and Sahith Theegala in attendance.
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Course Guide: The 3M Championship had been an established tournament on the PGA Champions Tour going back to 1993, before it was promoted to the PGA Tour in 2019. Played in the northern suburbs of Minneapolis at TPC Twin Cities, this was always a tournament which produced very low scores. A 7,114 yard Par 72 was the format for the Seniors, and winning scores of -19/197 (2016 – Joe Durant), -20/196 (2017 – Paul Goydos) and -21/195 (2018 – Kenny Perry) show that this course was very much there for the taking.
After Kenny Perry lifted the trophy in August 2018, a Tom Lehman and Tim Herron-led course renovation started on this original Arnold Palmer design, with the focus of adding distance which they achieved by adding 350 yards. However across its PGA Tour schedule spot, winning scores of -21/263, 19/265, -15/269, -17/267, -24/260 and -17/267 differs with the strength of the wind. To me it’s more mid-score than resort-level scoring.
TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, Minnesota: Designer: Arnold Palmer, 2000 with Herron and Lehman renovation, 2018; Course Type: Mid-Score, Long Length; Par: 71; Length: 7,431 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-Play: 15; Number of Sand Bunkers: 72; Acres of Fairway: 28; Fairways: Bentgrass; Rough: Bluegrass with Fescue 4″; Greens: 6,500 sq.ft average featuring Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 12ft.
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
2024: 70.39 (-0.61), Rank 16 of 51 courses
2023: 69.71 (-1.29), Rank 36 of 50 courses
2022: 71.44 (+0.44) Rank 14 of 50 courses
2021: 70.44 (-0.56), Rank 24 of 51 courses
2020: 69.95 (-1.05), Rank 23 of 41 courses
2019: 69.46 (-2.54), Rank 36 of 49 courses
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for TPC Twin Cities and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
TPC Twin Cities: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:38; 300:31; 325:30; 350:36.
Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Arnold Palmer designs include:
Albany – 2015 – 2023 Hero World Challenge
Bay Hill Country Club – Arnold Palmer Invitational
Isleworth Golf & Country Club – 2014 Hero World Challenge
PGA West – Palmer Private – Host Course 2008 through 2015 Career Builder Challenge
TPC Boston – Dell Technologies Championship
Course Overview: TPC Twin Cities is part of the Tournament Players Club group of courses owned by the PGA Tour. Apart from the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass, which is the PGA Tour’s Number 1 tournament, TPC Designs tend to be quite standard and gettable. Built and operated in the main for amateur players who want to be able to play courses they see the top professionals play on TV, the course set-ups tend to be resort like in general, unless the wind blows.
And so it has proved more or less over the past 6 years. Despite course strengthening, TPC Twin Cities proved to be a total birdie-fest on its inaugural outing, and in 2020 with a couple of days with gusting 25 mph wind to contend with the winning total was -19/265. 2021 saw a -15/269 winning total with faster greens and a nagging 15mph westerly in-play all week, with Tony Finau winning at -17/267 in 2022 which saw +25mph winds on Thursday, with rain during Saturday producing a soft, scoreable course where 4 players shot -7/64. Lee Hodges won in 2024 at -24/260 by 7 clear shots, with middling to light winds and a soft course from a Friday downpour. 2024 saw Jhonattan Vegas win at more of a mid-score -17/267 with 25 mph gusting winds for the final 54 holes.
The course is wide from the tee, and despite fairways being tree-lined this is no classical layout. In fact the course sees water used as a defence on a majority of holes, giving the course almost a Florida-type look to it. I’ll add a couple of other facts. The course features pure Bentgrass green complexes, and at 900 feet in altitude, the ball flies a little further than the professionals are used to. With the calculations required, this is something that some players can work through with no issues, but undoubtedly some struggle with trusting the mathematics.
An original Arnold Palmer design, the course post-Herron/Lehman renovation now plays as a 7,431 yard Par 71, which with thinner air is short enough to take apart. Green complexes are large at an average 6,500 square feet, especially when compared to recent Tour stop-offs. With 3 par-5s measuring 594 yards (6th), 593 yards (12th) and 596 yards (18th) in length, the longest holes on the course show some resistance here, but both sets of par-3s and par-4s are easy from a PGA Tour scoring perspective.
3M Open Winners: 2024: Jhonattan Vegas (-17); 2023: Lee Hodges (-24); 2022: Tony Finau (-17); 2021: Cameron Champ (-15); 2020: Michael Thompson (-19); 2019: Matthew Wolff (-21).
Lee Hodges: MC Open/12th Scottish Open/MC Rocket Mortgage/MC Travelers.
Tony Finau: 28th Open/13th Travelers/MC US Open/2nd Canadian Open.
Cameron Champ: 11th JDC/MC Rocket/MC US Open/WD Memorial.
Michael Thompson: MC Workday/64th Rocket Mortgage/46th Travelers/8th Heritage.
Matthew Wolff: MC Rocket Mortgage/MC Travelers/50th TPC Scottsdale.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Chris Gotterup; 2) Kurt Kitayama; 3) Michael Thorbjornsen; 4) Rico Hoey; 5) Taylor Pendrith; 6) Kevin Yu; 7) Wyndham Clark; 8) Jake Knapp; 9) Hao-tong Li; 10) Davis Thompson.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
2024: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 82. Wind SE 8-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 86. Wind S 10-16 mph, with gusts to 24 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 90. Wind SSW 12-18 mph, with gusts to 28 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 89. Wind S 10-16 mph, with gusts to 24 mph.
2023: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 89. Wind NE 8-12 mph, gusting to 18 mph. Due to inclement weather, round one was suspended for the day Thursday at 6:59 p.m. CT with 21 players having not completed their round. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 89. Wind NE 8-12 mph, gusting to 18 mph. Play was suspended at 4:23 p.m. due to dangerous weather. The second round resumed at 6:20 p.m., a delay of 1 hour, 57. Play was suspended for the day at 8:53 p.m. due to darkness with six players to complete their round. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 82. Wind NW 8-14 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 80. Wind NNW 6-12 mph, gusting to 15 mph.
2022: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 86. Wind NW 12-17 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 92. Wind WSW 12-16 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Saturday: With the threat of severe weather, third-round tee times featured threesomes off tee Nos. 1 and 10 from 6:50 – 9:02 a.m. CT. Due to inclement weather, the third round was suspended from 10:57 am until 5:35 p.m. (6 hours, 38 minutes). High of 85. Wind ESE 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. 15mm rain. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 78. Wind NW 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph.
2021: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 88. Wind S 6-12 mph, with gusts to 17 mph. Due to inclement weather, round one was suspended from 11:28 a.m. to 1:52 p.m. (2 hours, 24 minutes). Play was suspended due to darkness at 8:54 p.m., with 11 players yet to complete their round. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 93. Wind SSW 10-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 90. Wind NW 10-15 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 92. Wind WNW 10-15 mph.
2020: Thursday: Due to fog, the start to round one was delayed by 19 minutes and began at 7:09 a.m. CT. Mostly sunny with a high of 81. SE wind 8-15 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 88. Wind S 13-18 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Saturday: Cloudy with scattered showers. High of 89. Wind S 14-20 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Sunday: Due to early morning storms, the original one-tee start at 7:20 a.m. was changed to a split tee start from 9:59 a.m. – noon. Mostly cloudy. High of 82. Wind NW 7-14 mph.
2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 83. Wind N 8-15 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 87. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 90. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 92. Wind S/SSW 6-12 mph.
Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Blaine, Minnesota is here.
Hot temperatures – 30-34 degrees Celsius – 86-93 Fahrenheit – with sunshine and light winds is the summary for the 3M Open this week. There is a risk of a thunderstorm on Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and with this part of Minnesota receiving plenty of rain over June and July – 57mm last week – I’m expecting lush fairway conditions and the standard watered greens. With low winds expect high-teens for contention and possibly lower winning this year.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Memorial Tournament / Austrian Alpine Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Chris Gotterup; 2) Matti Schmid; 3) Cameron Champ; 4) Michael Thorbjornsen; 5) Brendan Valdes; 6) Chesson Hadley; 7) Kurt Kitayama; 8) Kevin Yu; 9) Isaiah Salinda; 10) Maverick McNealy; 11) Jake Knapp / Thomas Rosenmueller; 13) Kevin Roy / Sam Stevens; 15) Rico Hoey; 16) Haotong Li / Jhonattan Vegas; 18) William Mouw; 19) Sam Burns; 20) David Ford / Davis Thompson; 22) Akshay Bhatia / Emiliano Grillo / Si Woo Kim / Luke List.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Ben Kohles; 2) Austin Eckroat; 3) Kurt Kitayama; 4) Paul Peterson; 5) Luke Clanton / Brandt Snedeker; 7) Tom Hoge; 8) Lee Hodges; 9) William Mouw / Victor Perez; 11) Akshay Bhatia / Thomas Rosenmueller; 13) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 14) Harry Higgs / David Lipsky / Henrik Norlander; 17) Si Woo Kim; 18) Tony Finau / Brendan Valdes / Jhonattan Vegas; 21) Rico Hoey / Maverick McNealy; 23) Sam Burns / David Skinns; 25) Adam Svensson.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Andrew Putnam; 2) Patton Kizzire; 3) Webb Simpson; 4) Phillip Knowles; 5) Sungjae Im; 6) Alex Noren; 7) Rickie Fowler / Davis Riley / Vincent Whaley; 10) Harrison Endycott; 11) Tony Finau / Taylor Montgomery / Taylor Pendrith; 14) Max Greyserman; 15) Joe Highsmith / Chandler Phillips; 17) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Wyndham Clark; 19) Erik van Rooyen; 20) Si Woo Kim; 21) Jacob Bridgeman; 22) Byeong Hun An; 23) Joseph Bramlett; 24) Thriston Lawrence; 25) Chan Kim / Peter Malnati / Camilo Villegas.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Chris Gotterup 2) Ben Kohles; 3) Michael Thorbjornsen; 4) Kurt Kitayama; 5) Cameron Champ; 6) William Mouw; 7) Rico Hoey; 8) Sam Burns; 9) Brendan Valdes; 10) Rickie Fowler / Maverick McNealy; 12) Si Woo Kim; 13) Akshay Bhatia; 14) Vincent Whaley; 15) Jesper Svensson; 16) Emiliano Grillo / Lee Hodges / Kevin Roy / Jhonattan Vegas; 20) Taylor Pendrith; 21) Luke Clanton; 22) Max Greyserman; 23) Webb Simpson; 24) Adam Scott; 25) Patrick Fishburn.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Taylor Montgomery; 2) Peter Malnati; 3) Gordon Sargent; 4) Sami Valimaki; 5) Kevin Yu; 6) Jackson Suber; 7) Sam Burns; 8) Maverick McNealy; 9) Jake Knapp; 10) Max Homa; 11) Wyndham Clark / Mark Hubbard; 13) Kevin Kisner / Nate Lashley / Ben Silverman; 16) Austin Eckroat / Beau Hossler / Patrick Rodgers / Michael Thorbjornsen; 20) Noah Goodwin / Garrick Higgo / Chad Ramey; 23) Victor Perez; 24) Alex Noren / Thorbjorn Olesen.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Michael Thorbjornsen; 2) Jake Knapp; 3) Chris Gotterup; 4) Maverick McNealy; 5) Sam Burns; 6) Jackson Suber; 7) Kevin Yu; 8) Taylor Pendrith; 9) Beau Hossler; 10) Cameron Champ / Victor Perez / Vincent Whaley; 13) Patrick Fishburn / Max Greyserman; 15) Rickie Fowler; 16) Kurt Kitayama; 17) Andrew Putnam / Kevin Roy; 19) Kris Ventura; 20) Taylor Montgomery / William Mouw / Hayden Springer / Brendan Valdes; 24) Akshay Bhatia / Wyndham Clark / Rico Hoey / Nate Lashley.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the 3M Open winners here at TPC Twin Cities gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this northern United States test:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
2024, Jhonattan Vegas (-17). SG Off the Tee: 9th, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 53rd, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 8th.
2023, Lee Hodges (-24). SG Off the Tee: 27th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 27th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 4th.
2022, Tony Finau (-17). SG Off the Tee: 3rd, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 2nd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 42nd.
2021, Cameron Champ (-15). SG Off the Tee: 39th, SG Approach: 19th, SG Around the Green: 48th, SG Tee to Green: 27th, SG Putting: 1st.
2020, Michael Thompson (-19). SG Off the Tee: 51st, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 53rd, SG Tee to Green: 17th, SG Putting: 1st.
2019, Matthew Wolff (-21). SG Off the Tee: 21st, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 18th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 39th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 25th, SG Approach: 6th, SG Around the Green: 34th, SG Tee to Green: 9th, SG Putting: 16th.
Across the 2021 to 2024 3M Open renewals, from a Strokes Gained perspective the winners gained on average 2.63 strokes per round from Tee to Green (67%) and 1.28 Putting (33%). These are pretty much the exact same splits we saw at the John Deere Classic a few weeks ago.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners of the 3M Open back to 2019 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this water very much in-play course:
2024, Jhonattan Vegas (-17). 309 yards (7th), 71.4% fairways (12th), 79.2% greens in regulation (7th), 46.7 % scrambling (69th), 1.60 putts per GIR (1st).
2023, Lee Hodges (-24). 311 yards (25th), 71.4% fairways (13th), 80.6% greens in regulation (9th), 78.6 % scrambling (7th), 1.64 putts per GIR (2nd).
2022, Tony Finau (-17). 311 yards (16th), 76.8% fairways (6th), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), (10th), 83.3 % scrambling (1st), 1.77 putts per GIR (37th).
2021, Cameron Champ (-15). 318 yards (8th), 58.9% fairways (49th), 75.0% greens in regulation (22nd), 77.8 % scrambling (6th), 1.63 putts per GIR (1st).
2020, Michael Thompson (-19). 293 yards (46th), 67.9% fairways (22nd), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 83.3% scrambling (2nd), 1.72 putts per GIR (20th).
2019, Matthew Wolff (-21). 304 yards (36th), 67.9% fairways (31st), 83.3% greens in regulation (6th), 50.0% scrambling (62nd), 1.63 putts per GIR (6th).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 23rd, Driving Accuracy: 22nd, Greens in Regulation: 8th, Scrambling: 25th, Putting Average 11th.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at TPC Twin Cities click here.
Let’s take a view from players as to how TPC Twin Cities sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Jhonattan Vegas (2024): “This is a golf course where you have to drive it well. If you can drive it well out here, you can give yourself a lot of good chances. I drove it really well that year, had a great chance to win coming down to the last and kind of left with a sour mouth. So like I said, it’s a place that I like, that it fits my game and I’m going to try to keep coming back.
My mindset tomorrow – it’s all going to depend on the weather, right? If it stays like this where it’s blowing hard, then you’ve got to put a game plan together where it’s not as aggressive and you’ve got to manage the game a little bit better. We’ll see what the weather gives us and we’ll go from there.
Yeah, I made a change of putters the week of Detroit a few weeks ago and started seeing the ball roll really good. Yeah, it’s been giving me a lot of confidence and I made some really key putts today, which it was massive to keep the round from going the other way. But that’s the kind of stuff that you have to do to win, so glad it worked.”
Max Greyserman (2024): “Once Jhonattan hit the fairway on 18, that was kind of a big moment because if you hit the fairway on 18, that really opens up your opportunity to make a birdie because it’s playing straight downwind. He probably only hit 6- or 7-iron in there into a pretty wide green. I knew at that point that it wasn’t looking good when he hit the fairway, but before that I thought I had a good opportunity for a playoff.”
Lee Hodges (2023): “I would say it’s a ball-striker’s course, like getting in the fairways and hitting it on the greens. It’s soft out there so you can really attack, like there was a ton of pitch marks right around the holes today because guys were really throwing it at the flag. It should firm up, I would imagine, but yeah, the whole golf course is a ball-striker’s course. And I think I hit it pretty nice, so I’ll take my chances around here.
I’ve got a great attitude out there. Me and my caddie, we’re 70-something on the points list, like what do we have to lose, you know? We’ve committed to every shot we’ve hit so far, which has been great. We’ll continue to do it, because what do we have to lose.”
Tony Finau (2022): “Yeah, I played really nicely. I thought it was pretty tricky. There was enough wind up there to kind of affect every shot, putting and hitting, but I steadied the ship pretty good. I bogeyed the first hole, which is not the start you want on a day where it’s playing kind of tricky, but I was able to hole some putts in the middle of that front nine and kind of get going in the middle of the round. So I held it together really nicely and my ball-striking really came through for me to kind of make the golf course gettable on a day like today.”
“2nd shot on 18, I had 230 over the water. It was a 3-iron. It didn’t come out the way I wanted, it was basically like I was hitting out of the rough. I was at the very end of the first cut, but three to six inches from my golf ball the rough was about this high. So what ended up happening is basically like I was hitting out of the rough. I hit a hard 3-iron, which is about my 250 club, and it barely covered the water. I’ll take that putt after kind of a scare with the second shot.
Cameron Champ (2021): “Yeah, I was just in a very good place. My game was trending in the right direction. The previous two days I felt like it was just kind of stress-free golf. Obviously I feel like I left a lot out there, but I knew Sunday if I just played the same way and minimized the mistakes, which I did today, I might have a chance. Obviously coming down today, the course played not as easy as it did Thursday, Friday. Obviously the wind conditions, it kind of started to firm up some and I just dug down and just tried to finish it off.”
Troy Merritt (2021): “You know, as most of the players would tell you, they think a lot of courses suit their eye, but I like bent greens, I always have. I’m not a fan of Bermuda, and obviously we don’t have it up here. Spent plenty of years up here playing on these style of golf courses and hopefully we can use that to our advantage this weekend.”
Michael Thompson (2020): “Putting, really. I really like these greens, I’ve always liked bentgrass greens. Growing up in Arizona, I grew up on kind of slow Bermuda, kind of grainy Bermuda, and so it was a treat to get to play bent. So when I get good greens like this that roll smooth, it feels like the ball is hugging the ground for a long time, I get excited because I know I’m starting it on my line and it’s easier for me to get a good feel. I think I started out the week with confidence in my putting, and I’m going to go do some work in a little bit and maintain that and just kind of keep it rolling.
It is, it is, very much like PGA National this course. You know what shots you have to hit. There’s no if, and or but about it, you’ve just got to step up and hit the shot, execute, and I’m doing that well this week. I’m happy with where I’m at, feel like my game’s really good. It was nice to get those jitters out of the way today and tomorrow, going to go have some fun.”
Matthew Wolff (2019): “This course is gettable, especially with the rain, it’s been softer. I feel like it’s a course that really suits me well, a lot of drivers. Hitting the fairway obviously sets you up in good position to hit a lot of wedges in there, and I think that’s the biggest thing today is I was really dialled in with my wedges, got the distances really spot on.”
Bryson DeChambeau (2019): “Both 18 and 9 are difficult holes.They’re very difficult holes. Look, if you hit in the fairway on 18, it’s a pretty simple hole. If you hit it in the rough, it’s a tough layup and you’ve got to wedge it close to try to make birdie. You’re giving up a shot. No. 9, it’s also a very difficult hole. You’ve got to hit a good drive. If the pin’s over there on the right on nine again, you’re going to have to think about it. It’s a very difficult hole. Just make sure you’re in the fairway, so they’re both difficult.
For sure, I think that there’s a lot of water and a lot of tedious tee shots out here and that’s a pretty good defence. The pins were tucked a couple times today and people are going to make mistakes. Piercy shooting 9 under yesterday just kind of opened the floodgates a little bit, just going, okay, we can do it out here.”
Collin Morikawa (2019): “I think my ball-striking’s kept me in this week and finally was able to make some putts. Yeah, no, I like this course, it fits my eye a lot, it fits my eye off the tee, which is really comfortable and I think that’s the most part. You’ve got to see it from the tee and see it all the way from the last shot that’s going to drop. It’s pretty much stress-free today other than the three-putt. Just hit my lines, hit a lot of good shots and played to my strengths. Ball-striking has been my strength ever since I’ve been a little kid and kept up on that.”
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
5 – Zach Johnson.
4 – Webb Simpson.
3 – Adam Scott, Jhonattan Vegas.
2 – Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Tom Kim, Chris Kirk, Troy Merritt, J.T. Poston.
1 – Sam Burns, Cameron Champ, Wyndham Clark, Emiliano Grillo, Lee Hodges, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Kevin Kisner, Matt McCarty, William Mouw, Trey Mullinax, Taylor Pendrith, Seamus Power, Davis Riley, Brandt Snedeker, Davis Thompson, Camilo Villegas, Danny Willett.
Naturally we have now seen 6 renewals here. 2019 saw Matthew Wolff deliver his first PGA Tour win at the age of 20 in only his 4th PGA Tour start. His win came off incoming form of MC/MC since becoming a professional at the Travelers Championship only 2 weeks earlier and he won at a rather tasty 175/1 best price. 2020 saw Michael Thompson win at 125/1. His inbound form read MC/64/46/8, with the top 8 finish coming at Harbour Town 4 appearances back.
2021 saw Cameron Champ win. More in the mould of a Matthew Wolff as a stellar driving distance golfer, Champ was more obvious than the previous 2 winners. 11th last time out at the John Deere Classic had seen Cameron in 3rd spot heading into Sunday. He landed the 3M Open at 150/1.
2022 saw Tony Finau fly to Minnesota direct from St Andrews after finishing 28th at the Open Championship. His form read 28/13/MC/2/4 with the runner-up finish coming at the RBC Canadian Open. With only 2 PGA Tour wins to his name, Tony was the 14/1 favourite which was a tough price to swallow pre-event for many. 2023 saw 90/1 shot Lee Hodges claim his maiden PGA Tour win by the mere matter of 7 shots. Flying back early from a Missed Cut at the Hoylake-hosted Open Championship, Hodges had flashed some form at the Genesis Scottish Open prior to that in Scotland, where he had finished 12th.
That takes us to 2024 where Jhonattan Vegas took the 3M Open out at 80/1. He hadn’t played in Scotland or either of the alternate events across the Scottish Open/Open Championship fortnight and was a little under the radar. Incoming form was pretty good as well with 27th in Canada, 25th in Detroit and 20th in Hartford, where he had been 12th heading into Sunday. The Venezuelan had finished 2nd at the 3M Open in 2021.
It’s relatively early days in terms of being able to correlate courses to TPC Twin Cities, and building your preferences solely on some tenuous links would be ill-advised, but it’s worth remembering that we are in the north of the United States. Matthew Wolff since his win popped up on the PGA Tour in Detroit (Michigan) at the Rocket Mortgage Classic birdiefest where he shot -20/268 to finish 2nd behind Bryson DeChambeau. DeChambeau of course finished runner-up here in 2019 when we were on-board at 16/1, tied in fact with Collin Morikawa. Now Bryson and Collin are both Muirfield Village winners, with Bryson also winning his first ever PGA Tour title at Deere Run in 2017. Collin went on to finish 4th at Deere Run the week after his runner-up finish here at TPC Twin Cities, and was T2 at Detroit in 2023.
Another player you can throw into this mix is Adam Hadwin. 4th and 6th here at the 3M Open, he has also finished 4th (2020) and 2nd (2023) in Detroit. The Canadian has always been the sort who likes low scoring, so 8th at Deere Run (2016) plus 4th (2019) and 6th (2021) at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas is also interesting, especially on the basis that Bryson DeChambeau won the 2018 Shriners Open and has another 3 top-8 finishes there in the Las Vegas desert suburbs.
How does this translate to Michael Thompson? Well you have to dig a little with the Arizona man, but Michael does have 8th and 14th place finishes at Muirfield Village. 12th at Deere Run fits and there’s also a 13th place finish at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas. It’s not emboldened correlating form, but it’s there. Michael also has a top-10 finish at Colonial on his CV, which again fits nicely with Morikawa (2nd 2020), DeChambeau (3rd 2020) and Adam Hadwin (5th 2015, 8th 2021).
Cameron Champ was 11th at Deere Run the outing before he won this and had also finished 12th at the 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic emboldening that correlating course line of enquiry, especially as he was also 2nd at Detroit Golf Club in 2019 going into the weekend. 14th at Colonial (2020) also links very nicely.
Tony Finau has plenty of these correlating course links as well. Tony went on to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit the week after winning the 3M Open. 2nd (2019) and 4th (2022) at Colonial is spot-on form, as are a couple of top-10 finishes at both Muirfield Village and TPC Summerlin.
Lee Hodges’ results also translate to a level. 12th at Muirfield Village last year was prior to his 3M Open victory. 44th on his first visit to Detroit in 2022 had seen him sit 3rd heading into the weekend. 27th (2022) at TPC Summerlin saw Lee 15th heading into Sunday, and since his win here in Minnesota the Alabama man has gone on to finish 12th this year at Colonial Country Club.
Jhonattan Vegas prior to winning the 3M Open had finished 5th (2011) at TPC Summerlin, 25th in Detroit 2 outings before winning the 3M Open, and naturally had the runner-up finish on the TPC Twin Cities track 3 years earlier – probably the best form of all.
My Final 3M Open Tips Are As Follows:
Sam Burns 2.5pts EW 14/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes
Sam Burns is trending for a much needed PGA Tour victory. Yes he won the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club in 2023, taking advantage of his best friend Scottie Scheffler missing a 3-foot putt on the 20th hole (2nd of extra-time) for victory in their Semi-Final. But World Number 22 Burns hasn’t won a strokeplay event since the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club and we know he tends to win on medium length to long courses and prefers easier scoring tests, with 3 of his 4 stroke play victories coming at -17, -17 and -22. TPC Twin Cities sounds perfect.
Undoubtedly Bermudagrass positive, Sam has also racked up wins and strong finishes on Bentgrass greens. His aforementioned Colonial win was on them and you can add 6th (2023) at Colonial, 2nd (2021) and 5th (2025) at TPC Craig Ranch, 4th (2022) at St George’s G&CC, plus 7th here at TPC Twin Cities on his debut in 2019, when he was 2nd after 36 holes. That was very much in Sam’s early career, 18 months prior to his first win at the 2021 Valspar Championship.
Primed and motivated to win as he currently sits outside the top 12 for Team USA Ryder Cup qualification, I love his chances just a week after seeing his best golf buddy Scottie Scheffler lifting the Claret Jug. And it’s not as if Burns hasn’t gone close of late, losing to Ryan Fox in a play-off at the RBC Canadian Open, plus leading the U.S. Open after 54 holes before finishing 7th – his best ever Major finish.
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Davis Thompson 1.5pts EW 30/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes
Davis Thompson returns to the United States with work to do after a MC at Royal Portrush and now sitting 72nd in the FedEx Cup standings.
The Georgia-based 25 year-old had a great 2024, claiming his first ever Major Championship top 10 (9th at the U.S. Open), winning the John Deere Classic to land his maiden PGA Tour victory, and making the top 50 of the FedEx Cup standings, ensuring he played all of the 2025 Signature events. Ranking 15th for Scoring Average on the PGA Tour last year highlights a precocious talent.
2025 has been solid if unspectacular with 7 top-27 finishes including a stern defence of his John Deere Classic title a few weeks back where he was 1st heading into Sunday before finishing 18th. The sort who has played and finished 13th at the Genesis Invitational, 10th at the Players Championship, 27th at the RBC Heritage, 23rd at the Truist Championship and 25th at the Travelers Championship in esteemed company in 2025, Thompson should see this step down as a real opportunity – especially as he’s outside the Play Off qualifying top 70 arriving in Minnesota.
His John Deere Classic win last year came on Bentgrass greens, as did 5th at the Shriners Children’s Open, plus I’m also drawn to 2nd at the 2023 The American Express where he shot -26/262 to end up a shot shy of Jon Rahm. TPC Twin Cities winners Michael Thompson, Tony Finau, Lee Hodges and Jhonattan Vegas have all had success at PGA West.
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Michael Thorbjornsen 1.5pts EW 33/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes
Michael Thorbjornsen should thrive this week. With plenty of space off the tee here at TPC Twin Cities, plus plenty of short par-4s including a driveable 7th Hole, Thorbjornsen – who ranks in this field across my 8-week Strokes Gained trackers in the top 5 for Off the Tee, the top 3 for Tee to Green and Number 1 for Current Form – should thrive.
Born in Ohio and based in Wellesley, Massachusetts, the Bentgrass fairways, Kentucky Bluegrass with Fescue rough and Bentgrass greens will be very much to Michael’s liking this week. Plus it’s well worth noting that despite his lack of professional experience, he’s still finished 4th (2022) at the Travelers Championship, 4th (2025) at the Rocket Classic, plus 2nd (2024) at the John Deere Classic. Up-State golf in the northern United States should not be a problem in terms of agronomy.
A 7-time amateur winner with victories across Illinois (twice), Massachusetts, New Jersey and on his Stanford University (2023 Pac-12 Men’s Golf Championships) course which features Bentgrass greens, it’s logical Thorbjornsen goes well here in Minnesota and he’s undoubtedly playing good golf in 2025.
2nd at Corales, 4th at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with Karl Vilips, 7th after 36 holes at the Quail hollow-hosted PGA Championship falling back to 41st, 4th at the Rocket Classic, plus 21st and 14th across his last 2 outings, the 23 year-old is in-line for a maiden victory – like Matthew Wolff and Lee Hodges across previous renewals. Michael showed his liking for TPC Twin Cities here last year with an opening round 66 and should feel more comfortable this week after being the heavily backed favourite at the alternate ISCO Championship a fortnight ago.
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Kurt Kitayama 1.5pts EW 35/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes
At 110th in the FedEx Cup, Kurt Kitayama needs results and now to make the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Trending after 5th at the John Deere Classic and a fast-finishing 14th at the Barracuda Championship, Kurt is playing superbly right now from Tee to Green, ranking 4th at TPC Deere Run and in the top 5 across my 8-week Strokes Gained Tee to Green tracker.
I’ve referenced TPC Twin Cities having a Florida golf course overture on the basis that 15 of the 18 holes have water in play. Well Kitayama has finished 3rd (2022) at PGA National and naturally won his one and to this point only PGA Tour victory at Bay Hill in 2023. Congaree, where he finished 2nd in the CJ Cup in another high quality affair, also has 10 holes with water in play, and Kitayama undoubtedly gets on well with courses where water frames the holes.
6th on his only outing here 12 months ago where he ranked 2nd for Tee to Green, if Kitayama keeps the Tee to Green game to its current standard then any sort of week with the putter around neutral would see him feature come Sunday.
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Matt McCarty 1pt EW 70/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes
I’ll give props to the likes of Cameron Champ (previous winner here), Jacob Bridgeman (due a win soon), Jesper Svensson (finished like a train at The Open) and Matti Schmid for the test this week, but at a tournament where the winners tend to be around the 55/1 – 66/1 mark for those who like 8 places each-way, I’m going with Matt McCarty.
Many were on McCarty when he won the Black Desert Championship last October on only his 3rd PGA Tour start at 66/1. That win naturally gave Matt full playing privileges across 2025 and 2026. So in his first full season I’ve been impressed with a results resume that includes 14th at The Masters on debut (wow), 15th at the CJ Byron Nelson, 4th at the RBC Canadian Open, with 2 further top-22 results across the Rocket Classic (19th) and the Scottish Open (22nd).
That kind of form reminds me of Lee Hodges prior to winning this in 2023, and McCarty shares his game-shape. Straight and moderate in length off the tee, Matt has been precise with his approach play over recent weeks and excels both around the greens and also on them. 1st and 3rd for Strokes Gained Putting across TPC Toronto and Detroit Golf Club (both Bentgrass/Poa Annua greens), McCarty has undoubtedly improved his results greatly when the Tour has left Bermudagrass agronomy behind.
That makes sense for a player who won 3 Korn Ferry titles in 6 events last year – he won 4 in 10 when you include the Black Desert – across the states of Missouri, Nebraska (both Mid-West) and Idaho on Bentgrass-based greens.
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