Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford's Open Championship Tips

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The Open Championship stands on a pedestal, sharing it only with The Masters as the Major Championship that professional golfers covet the most.

The 2026 Open Championship takes place in England this year at Royal Birkdale Golf Club, Merseyside, which we last saw in 2017 when Jordan Spieth got his hands on the famous Claret Jug.

The 154th edition of the Open Championship takes place from Thursday 16th July through to Sunday 19th July 2026. Now into our 17th season, Golf Betting System will as ever be hunting for profit with our Open tips from Paul Williams and Steve Bamford. Golf Betting System has full 2026 coverage with Open Championship tips, long-shot and alternative market selections, a full range of free course and player statistics, plus of course our famous free statistical Predictor Model.

You can also listen to our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), which is also available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and on the Steve Bamford Golf Channel, as well as across all popular podcast players.

The Open Championship winners’ list here at Royal Birkdale was the preserve of Americans and Australians until Ireland’s Padraig Harrington won here in 2008. To this point he’s the only European to win at Birkdale. Arnold Palmer (1961), Lee Trevino (1971), Johnny Miller (1976), Tom Watson (1983), Mark O’Meara (1988) and Jordan Spieth (2017) have won from the United States, with Peter Thomson (1954 and 1965) and Ian Baker-Finch (1991) from Australia.

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Open Championship Insight, Stats and Tips Research

It’s worth remembering that the Open Championship (or British Open, if you’re reading this on the other side of the Atlantic) and links golf in general is very niche; it’s a defined golfing specialism which in itself produces opportunities from a betting perspective. Mistakes can be costly, however select the right player or player portfolio and the rewards can be strong.

Golf Betting System’s goal is to provide you with informed Open Championship tips, free tournament research tools, insight and information that will help you make educated decisions about which players to back at the 2026 Open Championship. Better still, we can even help with what players to avoid in a Major where plenty of big names will not feature.

Course Information:

Royal Birkdale Golf Club, Southport, Merseyside: Designer: Frederick G. Hawtree & J.H. Taylor, with Martin Hawtree 1993, plus Mackenzie & Ebert 2023-2025 renovations; Course Type: Coastal Links, Medium Length; Par: 70; Length: 7,223 yards; Number of Holes Water is in Play: 1; Number of Sand Bunkers: 110; Acres of Fairway: 29; Fairways: Fescue with Browntop Bentgrass; Rough: Fine Fescue + Buckthorn/Dwarf Willow – Semi – 1.4”, Primary 2.75 – 3”; Greens: 6,000 sq.ft average featuring A1/A4 Creeping Bentgrass, Fine Fescue and Poa Annua mix.

Course Scoring Average:

  • 2017: 71.85 (+1.85), PGA Tour Difficulty Rank 3 of 50 courses

What to Expect at Royal Birkdale

The Open Championship is always a stern test of any golfer, but Royal Birkdale is regarded as the fairest test on the Open course rota. Yes the Open’s 1998 and 2008 visits to Southport saw over par champions in Mark O’Meara and Padraig Harrington. But those Open Championships saw some of the worst weather of any renewals. Ian Baker-Finch won the title in 1991 with a -8/262 total, whereas Jordan Spieth in the latest 2017 renewal took the Claret Jug back to Dallas, Texas after a -12/268 score. That 2017 championship was famous for Branden Grace becoming the first man to shoot 62 in a Major, achieving the feat on the Saturday on a soft golf course with minimal wind.

Birkdale links sets its stall out from the start with perhaps the most demanding Open rota 1st hole, but difficultly is a total marriage with the local weather conditions. As champion Harrington summarised in 2008, “This is a really pleasant golf course for everybody. I can understand why a lot of players would rate it very highly. It’s not tricky, there’s nothing funky about it. Everything is there in front of you. This is much, much more straightforward than that. The fairways are flatter; the greens are not severe and if there’s some slopes off them, there’s not too many.

In terms of Royal Birkdale in 2026, the course has received a Mackenzie & Ebert renovation which took place over 2023 and 2025. It’s been extended out to a circa 7,220 yard, Par 70, up 70-odd yards from 2017. In reality it’s a medium length test which features a 34-36 split, where the players’ first look at a par-5 is the 14th hole.

The new design unveiled in 2026 sees a brand new risk and reward par-4 5th hole, a redesigned 7th hole with an elevated green, and changes to the closing stretch which include the remodelled par-5 14th, which was previously the 15th. The 15th is now a new 200 yard, par-3, whilst there have also been adjustments to the par-4 16th and 18th holes.

Other changes for the 2026 Open see the bunker count reduced to approximately 110. The renovation removed a number of smaller revetted pot bunkers and reshaped the remaining hazards to create larger, more strategic bunker complexes. It still makes Birkdale one of the more heavily bunkered Open venues. So if you’re comparing the 2017 Open course to 2026 then it’s not just a lengthening project, the routing and strategic character of several holes have been materially changed for the first time in decades.

Royal Birkdale is made unique by the way it is framed by the topography of the sand dunes. As Tom Watson put it, “There is more elevation involved in the tee shots and green complexes like the 6th green which rides up out of the dunes. The western side of the golf course is just lovely, playing along the dune structure down there which is just gorgeous.”

In all you get the feeling that Birkdale is a more than scoreable test if conditions allow. From a driving perspective, the course sets up well with no blind tee shots and the statistics from 2008 and 2017 both suggest that missing fairways by a small margin – or a wide margin in Jordan Spieth’s case – offers little penalty. Fairways are flat and the real penalty off the tee is hitting well positioned fairway bunkers, which in the main are penal. Green complexes remain pretty flat and top-notch approach shots get rewarded with makeable putts. However if the wind blows…

open championship tips

Royal Birkdale home of the 2026 Open Championship.

Below are some revealing player comments about the course from previous Birkdale Open Championships:

Jordan Spieth (2017): “I like the golf course, it’s very cool. It’s a very tough but fair test, one that’s demanding off the tee. And if you get that part done, into the greens and on the greens, you can play kind of to the centre of them and putt to the corners. The greens aren’t crazy. There’s only a couple that have any kind of ridges to them. So it’s about controlling your ball off the tee in these crosswinds to give yourself the opportunity to hit the centre of the green.

I think part of this being such a fair test is the graduating rough or trouble off the tee. They’ve done just a phenomenal job here in areas where with the winds that we’re going to have, if it’s very difficult to hold a fairway, if you hit a really good shot and it creeps into the rough, there’s very little rough, you’re still fine. You get rewarded for a really good shot. And then it’s graduated rough. The further off line you hit it, for the most part out here, the more trouble you’re going to be in. And that’s tough to do in a major because you’ve got so many people coming out that trample down areas that are far off the fairways. But they’ve somehow done it here it seems, that off the tee the closer you are to the fairway, the better chance you have of hitting the green in regulation, and I think that’s fair.

A lot of crosswinds, which makes it really tough to hit fairways, but a good shot is still going to reward you. Really well-placed bunkers, ones where on some holes if you want to fly the short ones, instead of hitting iron off the tee, it’s going to be very difficult for you to fly them but leave them short of the next set of bunkers. A lot of risk/reward options off the tee out here, and if you choose for the risky, and you still hit a good shot, it really will reward you.”

Matt Kuchar (2017): It seems so playable, so fair, well designed with the different staggering of bunkers, the fairways. You feel like if you hit it down the fairway, it’s going to stay in the fairway, you’re not going to get a funny kick. You feel like quality shots are rewarded as quality shots. If you get in some trouble, they give you some room to run a ball up on the green, proper links style. A handful of greens are pitched out but they tend to be shorter holes where you’re hitting shorter irons, and fair enough to have to fly the ball on the green and stop it on those. But for the most part it seems to be a very, very fair test of golf.

Brendan Grace (2017):I would have thought I had the bad side of the draw coming in this morning. We obviously had -strong winds there the first day, and then yesterday I know I didn’t get a lot of rain, but we had five holes of proper rain out there. So it was tough.

Yesterday wasn’t going to be an easy day at all. And I think the scores shows it. Today was one of those days where we had the conditions, like you said. And just trying to shoot a number to try to get myself back in there, and have a decent finish for the week. Obviously now the mindset changed a bit. Obviously I don’t know what the guys are going to do this afternoon, but there is a lot of birdies out there. It is still very gettable out there, with some of the pins the way the winds are blowing the greens are soft, and I’m sure the guys are going to shoot also some good scores this afternoon.

But obviously yesterday was terrible. But today I think obviously The Open staff, they couldn’t get the golf course very much as they wanted – firm, fast, running. It’s in immaculate condition. It’s the best that I’ve seen any links golf in, in all the time I’ve been pro, honestly. But you know what it is, the greens are softer, still gettable. They’ve done a couple of things today that I’ve not actually seen at the Opens. Moving the tee up I think 30 yards on the 5th. Trying to give the guys a chance to go for it. Things on the 7th, they’ve moved the tee up 30 yards. So it’s giving guys an opportunity to be aggressive. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t, but I think that’s why there are low scores out there today.”

Henrik Stenson (2017):The 6th hole hasn’t got any easier. I guess for the members it’s a par-5, and we play it as a par-4. You’ve got a tee shot where you have got two options off the tee, basically, you can either layup on this big bunker there straight down the fairway off the tee, and that’s going to put you even further back and a bit of a blind shot for your second. And I would guess it’s probably 3-wood, 3-iron, something like that, if you go that way. Or you can go left and challenge that bunker and potentially another fairway bunker down the left-hand side and hit it a bit further off the tee, and that might leave you maybe a 4- or 5-iron second shot. So it’s just a long hole and you’ve got to hit two good shots to get it in position.”

Padraig Harrington (2008): “As regards to the weather, we started out Thursday morning and the weather was – that rain was as brutal as you’ve ever seen from tee to green. It wasn’t as tough on the greens because the greens had some moisture in them and the wind wasn’t that strong even though it was affecting the play because of the coolness and the dampness. It was affecting the ball travelling. The ball went better through the wind on the last two days because of the fact that it was a little bit warmer.

But I’ve never experienced the difficulty on the greens of the last two days. I found the greens quick. Even though they said they were trying to slow them up, I really found them quick, and it was difficult to get the ball to settle close enough to the hole that you had a tap-in. Every hole you seemed to have four-footers, five-footers, always trying to figure out the line. And many times changing what line you want to hit the ball on nearly as you go. So as tough as I’ve ever seen on the greens.”

Mark O’Meara (2008): Everyone talks about the major changes but I think the course has only been lengthened by 150, 155 yards. Probably the biggest changes that I saw out there were some of the mounding, narrowing up the golf course a little bit, some of the new bunkering and pushing the bunkers out a little bit farther to combat some of the length that the younger players have. The lengthening of 16, I know the green configuration of 17. But other than that, it seemed very similar to the way it was in ’98. So much depends here at Birkdale on the weather, as we know from past Open Championships. In ’98 the weather was pretty severe, pretty windy, of course out of the southwest, and of course played quite demanding you might say, and the scoring reflected that.

I think this week a lot depends on what the wind does and how severe it blows. If it doesn’t blow that hard, even though the rough is a little bit deeper this year because it’s been a little wetter of a spring, I imagine these players, as good as they are, will shoot some pretty low scores. If the wind blows, even par will be a good score come Sunday afternoon.”

Phil Mickelson (2008):I think it’s a very fair test where good shots get rewarded, primarily the 30 or 40 yards short of the green. You get much more consistent bounces, so the well-struck shots are rewarded and typically end up about where you would anticipate. I think that’s the biggest thing. There’s also a good mixture of holes that move both ways. The bunkers are perfectly placed for strategy, and it just seems to use every club in your bag. Very few blind shots, a lot of straightforward golf, even though it’s very difficult. “

Geoff Ogilvy (2008): “Yeah, I mean, you wait all day for a par-5 and you hit 15 straight into a 15-, 20-mile-an-hour wind, whatever it is. It’s borderline reachable. I guess most guys could get there yesterday. Today the wind strengthened, and I don’t think many will get there, I’m sure, a couple of the longer guys, but most of the field will be laying it up. You wait all day for that par-5 and it’s a tough layup too, because you have to lay up with a really long club, and it’s gorse on the right and long grass on the left. 15 and 17 are the obvious birdie holes so you’ve got chances to make birdies.

16 is a brutal hole. You can’t see any of the fairway from the tee. It’s quite narrow. I hit driver, 3-iron today and hit them both good. That’s a pretty long – we don’t have that many par-4s where we hit driver, 3-iron, and it could play longer. It’s a windy day today, but I’m sure it can get windier here. It was windier in ’98, at least for periods.”

Graeme McDowell (2008): “I have to say, this is up there probably in my top 5 favourite links courses around. I’ve been really, really impressed by it. It kind of reminds me a lot of some of the really good Irish links like a Waterville or kind of Ennis Anis Grove or even a Portrush, so it’s got the real rolling dunes, the real classic links feel to it. It’s not tricked up, it’s just a solid, tough test, fair. You hit good shots, you get rewarded. The place is not tricked up in any way, shape or form.

The 17th is a bit tricked up, that 17th green. It’s actually just a very difficult tricky little green. Obviously it’s a nothing tee shot. It’s a pretty straightaway tee shot, it’s a short par-5. There’s going to be bad shots that end up stone dead and there’s going to be great shots that end up in three-putt territory. It’s a funky little hole. It’s a funky little green obviously. Maybe a little bit out of character with the rest of the golf course perhaps in that the rest of the greens maybe aren’t that difficult, and all of a sudden you walk on the 17th, and you go, “Who designed who this?” It’s going to offer up some drama, no doubt about it. Like I said, there’s going to be bad shots you get away with, rolling off slopes and end up stone dead. It’s going to be interesting.”

Short Game Wizards

Let’s take the final skill statistics from Padraig Harrington and Jordan Spieth from the latest 2008 and 2017 Open Championships held at Royal Birkdale. There was no Strokes Gained data back then of course. This gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2017, Jordan Spieth (-12). 295 yards (44th), 42.9% fairways (59th), 69.4% greens in regulation (3rd), 72.7 % scrambling (4th), 1.72 putts per GIR (10th).
  • 2008, Padraig Harrington (+3). 292 yards (45th), 51.8% fairways (37th), 52.8% greens in regulation (30th), 49.6 % scrambling (13th), 1.66 putts per GIR (4th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

  • Driving Distance: 44th, Driving Accuracy: 48th, Greens in Regulation: 17th, Scrambling: 9th, Putting Average 7th.

Statistics don’t always highlight the full story, especially at an Open Championship, and traditional non-Strokes Gained stats are pretty blunt. But the last two Champions here were controlled off the tee in terms of their driving distance, but still not accurate. Scrambling and putting were where both Harrington and Spieth excelled, as did Matt Kuchar who was runner-up in 2017.

Open Championship Pedigree - Once Critical, Now Not So

Maybe it’s the modern game, or maybe it’s been recent Open Championship venues, but lifting the Claret Jug was up until recently the preserve of players who had finished in the top 10 of a previous Open at the very least. But that hasn’t always been the case of late. Collin Morikawa in 2021 became a member of the ‘no Open Championship experience required’ club when he lifted the Claret Jug in Kent. It was the then 24 year-old’s first ever appearance in an Open Championship which he won at 40/1.

Cameron Smith in 2022 had Open form of MC/78/20/33 when arriving at St Andrews for his fifth Open. Scratch the surface with the Australian and you would have seen he’d been 5th after 36 holes at Royal Portrush before finishing 20th, plus 9th at Sandwich after 54 holes before slumping to 33rd. From a broad brush perspective though, Smith could have been struck off a punter’s list if a top 10 finish was any form of selection criteria.

2020 and 2022 certainly breaks the cast-iron Top 10 rule, but in the last 2 winners Scottie Scheffler (2025) and Xander Schauffele (2024) they return to the well-trodden pattern of previous top 10 results highlighting future Open champions.

Scottie Scheffler captured the Claret jug at Royal Portrush last year with a 4-shot victory over Harris English. Scottie from his previous 4 Open Championship starts had finished 8th on debut at Royal St Georges (2021) and 7th at Royal Troon (2024).

Talking of Royal Troon, 2024 champion Schauffele had finished 2nd at the 2018 Open played at Carnoustie. The Californian had also finished in the top 20 3 more times across 7 total Open Championship appearances. He’s the latest on an Open Champions list including all winners from 2011 – 2019, plus 2023, all of whom had shown a level of top 10 pedigree at the ultimate links golf test prior to lifting the trophy.

Brian Harman at Hoylake in 2022 won off the back of finishing T6 the year before at St Andrews. Shane Lowry, winner in 2019, had finished 9th at the 2014 Royal Liverpool (Hoylake) Open that Rory McIlroy won. Francesco Molinari had a top 10 and 2 top 20s to his name before winning at Carnoustie in 2018. Jordan Spieth had a 4th place finish at St Andrews on his CV prior to victory at Birkdale in 2017, which was only his 5th Open appearance. 2016 Champion Henrik Stenson had garnered 3 top 10s and another top 20 from 11 appearances before beating Phil Mickelson in their famous Troon duel.

It’s also fascinating to note that on average across the past 11 winners, they had appeared in 6 Open Championships prior to winning. Collin Morikawa on his Open debut, Jordan Spieth, Cameron Smith and Scottie Scheffler with 4 Open appearances, plus Zach Johnson, Henrik Stenson and Francesco Molinari with 11 previous starts are the outliers statistically.

Shorten that list to the past 5 winners and that average start number falls to 4.2. So where experience was once all important, Major Championship talent is recently overcoming links golf experience when weather conditions allow.

2025 Champion – Scottie Scheffler

  • 4 Open Appearances – Top 10s = 2, 8th St Georges 2021, 7th Troon 2024

2024 Champion – Xander Schauffele

  • 6 Open Appearances – Top 10s = 1, 2nd Carnoustie 2018; Top 20s = 3, 20th Royal Birkdale 2017, 15th St Andrews 2022, 17th Hoylake 2023

2023 Champion – Brian Harman

  • 7 Open Appearances – Top 10s = 1, 6th St Andrews 2022.

2019 Champion – Shane Lowry

  • 7 Open Appearances – Top 10s = 1, 9th Hoylake 2014.

2018 Champion – Francesco Molinari

  • 11 Open Appearances – Top 10s = 1, 9th Muirfield 2013; Top 20s = 2, 13th Turnberry 2009, 13th Hoylake 2014.

2017 Champion – Jordan Spieth

  • 4 Open Appearances – Top 10s = 1, 4th St Andrews 2015.

2016 Champion – Henrik Stenson

  • 11 Open Appearances – Top 10s = 3, 3rd Birkdale 2008, 3rd St Andrews 2010, 2nd Muirfield 2013; Top 20s = 1, 13th Turnberry 2013.

2015 Champion – Zach Johnson

  • 11 Open Appearances – Top 10s = 2, 9th Lytham 2012, 6th Muirfield 2013; Top 20s = 2, 20th Carnoustie 20th, 16th St George’s 2011.

2014 Champion – Rory McIlroy

  • 6 Open Appearances – Top 10s = 1, 3rd St Andrews 2010.

2013 Champion – Phil Mickelson

  • 19 Open Appearances – Top 10s = 2, 3rd Troon 2004, 2nd St George’s 2011; Top 20s = 2, 11th St Andrews 2000, 19th Birkdale 2008.

2012 Champion – Ernie Els

  • 21 Open Appearances – Wins = 1, Muirfield 2002; Top 10s = 11, 5th Muirfield 2002, 6th St George’s 1993, 2nd Lytham 1996, 10th Troon 1997, 2nd St Andrews 2000, 3rd Lytham 2001, 2nd Troon 2004, 3rd Hoylake 2006, 4th Carnoustie 2007, 7th Birkdale 2008, 8th Turnberry 2009.

2011 Champion – Darren Clarke

  • 15 Open Appearances – Top 10s = 3, 2nd Carnoustie 1997, 7th St Andrews 2000, 3rd Lytham 2001; Top 20s = 3, 11th Lytham 1996, 11th Troon 2004, 15th St Andrews 2005.

Recent Form Is Key

Scottie Scheffler’s win at Royal Portrush last year adds even more gravitas to the fact that in-form players are the guys to follow at the Open Championship. It makes sense that those who are struggling with their games are unlikely to find them on a links course, and in the last 13 champions, namely Scheffler, Schauffele, Harman, Smith, Morikawa, Lowry, Molinari, Spieth, Stenson, Zach Johnson, McIlroy, Mickelson and Els, we can see a pattern that’s easy to extrapolate.

Scottie Scheffler won his second Major Championship of 2025 and his fourth in total at Royal Portrush 12 months ago. He became the first World Number 1 since Tiger Woods in 2006 to lift the Claret Jug and his win was based upon inbound form that read 1-1-4-1-7-6-8. That classifies as hot form if nothing else does. Naturally he was the 5/1 favourite.

Xander Schauffele won his second Major Championship of 2024 at Royal Troon 12 months ago. Despite winning the PGA Championship in May and finishing in the top-8 across all three 2024 Major Championships, Xander was available at 14/1 – or 4th favourite behind Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Ludvig Aberg. Following his first Major win, 8th at the Signature-level PGA Tour Memorial Tournament, 7th at the U.S. Open, 13th at the Signature-level Travelers Championship and 15th at the Scottish Open the week before Troon was the kind of solid form that many still overlooked.

Brian Harman took the Claret Jug back to St Simons Island, Georgia from the north-west of England in 2023 at 110/1. He was the largest priced winner of the Open Championship since Zach Johnson in 2015 and the highest priced winner of a Major since Phil Mickelson won the 2021 PGA Championship at Kiawah Island. Yes Brian was undoubtedly a shock winner, but plenty of sage backers had noted that Harman had been in great nick leading into The Open and had the driving accuracy to navigate Hoylake’s main defence – big trouble off the tee. 2nd at the Signature-level PGA Tour Travelers Championship behind Keegan Bradley, Harman had backed that up with 9th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and 12th at the Scottish Open the week before Hoylake, where he’d been T3 heading into Sunday, going out in the 2nd from last Group at the Renaissance Club.

Cameron Smith’s 2022 had undoubtedly been the very best year of his career prior to even lifting the Claret Jug on the 18th green on the Old Course. He’d won the first tournament of the year at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and The Players Championship in Florida in March, prior to going very close to winning The Masters in April. A 36-hole leader and Final Group on Sunday performance at the Memorial Tournament (finished 13th), plus a fast-finishing (2nd for weekend scoring) 10th at the Scottish Open the week before, had many backing the Australian for The Open at 28/1 prior to the off.

Collin Morikawa in 2021, despite being both a Major (2020 PGA Championship) and WGC (2021 WGC Workday Championship) champion, shocked many when he won the Royal St George’s-hosted Open at 40/1. The reason was twofold: 1) It was his Open Championship debut. 2) He had finished 71st at the Scottish Open the week before. Unravel that recency bias though and Collin had finished 4th at the U.S. Open, 2nd at Memorial, 8th at the PGA Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage all within his past 6 appearances. 40/1 looking back was outrageous!

Shane Lowry in 2019 had won the stellar year-opener, the Abu Dhabi Championship on the DP World Tour and backed that up with his most successful period on the PGA Tour. 3rd at the RBC Heritage (coastal), 8th at the Bethpage Black-hosted PGA Championship and 2nd behind Rory McIlroy at the RBC Canadian Open had preceded top-30 and top-40 outings at the US Open and Irish Open.

Francesco Molinari, like Zach Johnson in 2015, arrived in Scotland directly off the John Deere Classic charter flight from Illinois, and boy his confidence must have been sky high. A huge win (his 5th on the DP World Tour) in May at the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth was followed by 2nd at his home Italian Open when defending. But the Italian’s summer got even better when he flew out to Washington in July to player Tiger’s tournament at TPC Potomac which he won, in the process winning his first tournament in the United States. And he arrived in Scotland having just shot a field best -7/64 in the final round to finish T2 in the John Deere Classic.

Jordan Spieth flew into the northwest of England fresh from his 10th PGA Tour victory, which he had racked-up at TPC River Highlands, when clinching the Travelers Championship in a spectacular play-off victory over Daniel Berger. Spieth had never previously played at the Travelers, but made short shrift of the River Highlands course shooting -7/63 in Round 1 to take control of the tournament from the very outset. From there he held off the attentions of Boo Weekley, Troy Merritt and finally fellow ‘Bro Group’ member Berger to win the title at 10/1. In Strokes Gained parlance he was 7th for Approach, 2nd for Around The Green and 1st for Tee to Green, whilst he was not bad with the putter finishing 3rd for Putts per GIR.

Henrik Stenson arrived in Ayrshire fresh from a free-wheeling 13th at the Scottish Open played at Castle Stuart. 76 in Round 1 was then followed by rounds of 69-66-70. However a fortnight prior to the Scottish Open, Stenson had won the BMW International Open at Gut Laerchenoff with a -17/271 total. His performance in Germany, and his 3-shot winning margin, was made even more impressive by the fact that he topped Driving Accuracy, Total Driving, Greens in Regulation and All-Round categories; he was also 2nd for Scrambling. Henrik had also finished 4th at Bro Hoff Slot in June. All of this made him very backable, especially as his Open record contained 2nd (Muirfield 2013), 3rd (Birkdale 2008) and 3rd (St Andrews 2010) place finishes. 30/1 was a cracking price to land.

Zach arrived at Edinburgh airport on the charter flight direct from Silvis, Illinois where he’d just finished a single shot behind Jordan Spieth at the John Deere Classic. 5th at Las Colinas and 6th at TPC River Highlands in preceding PGA Tour outings highlighted a player at the top of his game, so even now the fact that he was available at 110/1 to win at St Andrews is jaw-dropping!

Rory had won the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth in May, a track which had always been his nemesis, until his closing 66 destroyed the field. He then limbered up with a free-rolling 14th at Royal Aberdeen the week before triumphing in Cheshire, where a horrible 78 on Friday was surrounded by rounds of 64, 67 and 68. Rory was 18/1 second favourite  prior to the tournament.

Phil Mickelson had already won at TPC Scottsdale and finished 2nd on the tough tests of Merion (US Open) and TPC Southwind before he touched down in Scotland. Arriving at Castle Stuart the week before The Open, Phil was a 20/1 shot to win the Scottish Open, which he duly did, before travelling down the east coast to Muirfield, where he shot an incredible -5/66 on Sunday to win by 3 shots from Henrik Stenson, again at a healthy 20/1.

Ernie Els was available at 45/1 prior to Royal Lytham in 2012 and quite rightly we tipped him up as a great Top 20 bet in my Open Longshots column that year. With 4 top-5 finishes (Fancourt, Copperhead, Bay Hill and New Orleans) plus a 7th at Wentworth and 9th at the US Open just prior to the Open, he had huge momentum and was in the right place at the right time when Adam Scott collapsed over the closing 4 holes. It’s fact that Ernie was the latest in a long line of form players to triumph at the British Open.

17 Champions from the last 24 renewals (71%) had won a tournament in the season prior to triumphing at The Open. Tiger Woods (00, 05, 06), Ernie Els (02), Todd Hamilton (04), Padraig Harrington (07), Louis Oosthuizen (10), Darren Clarke (11), Phil Mickelson (13), Rory McIlroy (14), Henrik Stenson (16), Jordan Spieth (17), Francesco Molinari (18), Shane Lowry (19), Collin Morikawa (21), Cam Smith (22) and Xander Schauffele (24) had all won in the season prior to lifting the Claret Jug.

This is Steve Bamford’s pre-event preview. Paul Williams will be back with his final Open Championship tips on the Monday before the event.

About The Author - Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford

This article was last reviewed by Steve Bamford at 13:36BST 25.6.26.

Steve Bamford is co-founder and part of our editorial team at Golf Betting System and he focuses mainly on the PGA Tour. Steve has been involved in the gambling industry for over 15 years and has a passion for golf as well as football, horse racing and MMA, where he has developed a deep understanding of both online and offline betting gathered through practical experience. Steve also hosts the popular Golf Betting System podcast.

You can find out more about Steve’s involvement with Golf Betting System here.