Course Overview. Leopard Creek is one of the most recognisable tracks on the European Tour circuit with its close proximity to Kruger National Park and it always lodges in the memory due to the wildlife which shares the area including crocodiles, lions and the odd hippo thrown in for good measure.
The 7,249 yard par 72 has been used for this event since the latter end of 2004 so there’s plenty of course history to peruse this week, however the eagle-eyed amongst you will notice that there are no stats for 2017 and that’s because the course was closed for a major renovation.
The entire course was re-turfed as part of an 8-month project, with the Kikuyu fairways replaced by Bermudagrass and the greens re-laid as G-12 Champion Bermuda. A number of bunkers were repositioned too to make the course a little more straightforward for the casual golfer on the landing areas for mere mortals, however for the professionals that’s not really helped make the track any easier from what we’ve seen thus far.
The net effect of this has made the fairways firmer and faster than previously, particularly when the weather is dry, and the greens can now get up to 12 and beyond on the Stimpmeter. Combined with some lush rough last year and a little bit of a breeze, Pablo Larrazabal’s winning total was just 8-under par.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Alfred Dunhill Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event. Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Event Stats.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here. The oppressive heat of the practice days will dissipate a little for the 4 days of tournament play, with temperatures dipping from over 100 Fahrenheit to the mid-80s.
Winds are expected to be light at 5-12mph and the threat of thunderstorms has dropped since the initial forecast last week, so if it stays relatively dry then the course should play pretty firm and fast.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Stats from the last 5 Alfred Dunhill Championships held here give us a little insight into the type of player who might succeed at Leopard Creek:
- 2019, Pablo Larrazabal (-8). 319 yards (23rd), 44.6% fairways (27th), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 43.8% scrambling (32nd), 1.68 putts per GIR (2nd)
- 2018, David Lipsky (-14). 306 yards (33rd), 48.2% fairways (64th), 65.3% greens in regulation (53rd), 52.0% scrambling (16th), 1.68 putts per GIR (4th)
- 2016, Brandon Stone (-22). 318 yards (6th), 64.3% fairways (13th), 77.8% greens in regulation (11th), 62.5% scrambling (6th), 1.68 putts per GIR (19th)
- 2015, Charl Schwartzel (-15). 300 yards (22nd), 44.6% fairways (46th), 81.9% greens in regulation (2nd), 53.8% scrambling (29th), 1.69 putts per GIR (11th)
- 2014, Branden Grace (-20). 314 yards (7th), 64.3% fairways (33rd), 79.2% greens in regulation (9th), 53.3% scrambling (19th), 1.68 putts per GIR (9th)
Hitting fairways has never been particularly straightforward at Leopard Creek and the 2 year-old Bermuda fairways are typically firm and fast unless there’s been a lot of rain. Essentially that means accuracy stats are low and both David Lipsky and Pablo Larrazabal triumphed despite finding the short stuff less than half of the time.
Finding greens from wherever the ball ends up is a big part of the equation here as is putting, which despite the change from Bent to Bermudagrass greens has hardly deviated in terms of the required putting average over the past few years.
Incoming Form: The wins for Charl Schwartzel here were all fairly straightforward given his incoming form combined with his course form, which is detailed fully a little further down the list, and it wouldn’t have taken much to make a case for him on any of the occasions where he won.
Outside of those wins for Charl, Larrazabal finished 14th at the Portugal Masters and 7th at the Porsche European Open in recent events to hint at a little bit of form and prior to that Lipsky sat 11th at halfway in Hong Kong and 12th into Sunday before finishing 45th, although that fact would have been masked somewhat by his subsequent missed cuts.
Brandon Stone had finished 2nd at the Cape Town Open the week before winning here in 2016 and was perhaps a little easier to find, and Branden Grace had finished 9th at the Earth Course in Dubai on his penultimate start. Even Pablo Martin’s form when defending wasn’t way off the charts, having finished 6th at Vilamoura and 16th at Sheshan on his last start prior to defending here in 2010:
- Pablo Larrazabal: 26/MC/72/MC/7/MC/MC/33/MC/14/69/48
- David Lipsky: 13/50/MC/35/MC/63/MC/34/22/45/MC/MC
- Brandon Stone: MC/MC/55/10/68/MC/MC/MC/52/69/59/2
- Charl Schwartzel: 10/68/31/37/3/MC/19/MC/6/50/35/4
- Branden Grace: 36/23/46/MC/MC/46/25/21/16/19/9/13
- Charl Schwartzel: 15/28/21/MC/25/22/8/29/7/1/29/4
- Charl Schwartzel: 59/14/24/47/28/66/MC/16/5/3/2/1
- Garth Mulroy: MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/42/MC/3/18/21/12/37
- Pablo Martin: MC/34/63/51/MC/23/MC/MC/6/MC/62/16
Course Form: David Lipsky aside, the other 8 winners here since 2010 each had some positive course form to their name prior to winning with Larrazabal, Stone, Grace and Mulroy having recorded a top-20 finish or better here in the past.
Pablo Martin successfully defended the title that he’d won here in 2009 on debut, whereas Charl Schwartzel’s record on this track is simply magnificent with 4 wins and 4 further runner-up finishes over the years:
- Pablo Larrazabal: 40/MC/23/9
- David Lipsky: Debut
- Brandon Stone: 18
- Charl Schwartzel: 11/19/1/2/2/MC/14/2/2/1/1/26
- Branden Grace: MC/53/MC/MC/12
- Charl Schwartzel: 11/19/1/2/2/MC/14/2/2/1
- Charl Schwartzel: 11/19/1/2/2/MC/14/2/2
- Garth Mulroy:65/21/12/MC
- Pablo Martin: 1
Before the 2017 renovations, the equation here was reasonably straightforward in that players with a solid (or better) course record and some contending recent form simply had to be shortlisted. The course changes have made the track a different prospect though with the switch to Bermudagrass on the fairways and greens creating a different dynamic, with a fresh cast taking over at the top of leaderboards.
An ability to find greens from off the fairways is an advantage here and those who are more adept on firmer, faster Bermudagrass putting surfaces are also favoured. The par-3s are perhaps the most challenging part of the course now, however unless there’s a deluge prior to this or future events here, I suspect it will play and continue to play tougher all round than it used to before the updates.
Heat can also be a factor here – players were allowed to wear shorts for the first time on the European Tour here last year due to the extreme weather – and although the forecast appears to see temperatures drop a little from recent peaks, it’s still going to be hot enough for players to know about it.
My selections are as follows:
Alfred Dunhill Championship – Featured Bookmaker: Boylesports are attacking this week’s Alfred Dunhill Championship, offering an industry-best 8 places each-way at 1/5 odds on the outright market, with strong prices to boot. If you haven’t already got a Boylesports account then new customers can access their new customer offer using the link below:
