Alfred Dunhill Links Tips 2023 - Golf Betting System

Paul Williams' Alfred Dunhill Links Tips 2023

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After an exhilarating week of golf in Rome as Europe triumphantly snatched back the Ryder Cup from Team USA, we return to normality this week as we head to Scotland for our annual pro-am jaunt at St Andrews.

Although the Rolex Series may have relegated the Alfred Dunhill Links a little in terms of stature, it’s still more than a decent title to win with a $5m prize fund up for grabs, plus the event is equally about the celebrity amateurs who play alongside their golfing heroes at and around the Home of Golf for 4 days.

3 of Luke Donald’s men are immediately back in action this week, although a little bleary-eyed I’m sure, with Tommy Fleetwood (8/1) and Matt Fitzpatrick (12/1) heading the betting whilst Robert MacIntyre resides a little further down the list at around 40/1. Ryan Fox defends his title this week having won at Wentworth a little over a fortnight ago, and we also have the likes of Talor Gooch, Louis Oosthuizen and Peter Uihlein in attendance as the relationship with LIV starts to thaw a little.

The event is played over 3 courses for the first 3 days – Kingsbarns, Carnoustie and St Andrews – then the final round is contested around the Old Course with slightly trickier pin positions after 3 days of pretty generous placements to help the amateurs.

Temperament is an important factor in this quirky event where rounds can take over 6 hours to complete, with some of the amateurs barely able to claim ‘hacker’ status. Long waits of half an hour or longer are common on some tees as play grinds to a halt, so those with the personality to enjoy the occasion whilst retaining focus when it’s eventually their time to play a shot are at an advantage.

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Course Overview. The Old Course at St Andrews needs little introduction as the ‘Home of Golf’ is steeped in golfing tradition dating back to the very roots of the sport some 600 years ago. The 17th Road Hole, with its notorious bunker, and the closing 18th, which features the Swilcan Bridge and the Valley of Sin, are the most famous closing holes on the planet and this rolling links is recognisable worldwide to those with just the most basic of golfing knowledge.

The 7,318 yard, par 72 has a peculiar setup of 14 par-4s and just a pair each of par-3s & par-5s and features 7 double greens with huge, fescue/bentgrass putting surfaces. The other two tracks used for a day each in this event are Carnoustie and Kingsbarns with Carnoustie tending to play the toughest of all 3 courses, however much depends on the strength of the breeze.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Alfred Dunhill Links Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2022: Ryan Fox, 80/1; 2021: Danny Willett, 100/1; 2019: Victor Perez, 175/1; 2018: Lucas Bjerregaard, 50/1; 2017: Tyrrell Hatton, 22/1; 2016: Tyrrell Hatton, 66/1; 2015: Thorbjorn Olesen, 200/1; 2014: Oliver Wilson, 500/1; 2013: David Howell, 125/1; 2012: Branden Grace, 50/1; 2011: Michael Hoey, 250/1; 2010: Martin Kaymer, 16/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for St Andrews is here.

Our trip to Scotland will be greeted with autumnal conditions with drizzly rain expected for the first 2 days and temperatures struggling to venture beyond the mid-60s Fahrenheit, accompanied by a fresh breeze of up to 20mph. The weekend looks a little brighter although still breezy, with temperatures nudging towards 70 Fahrenheit.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the last 11 winners of this event gives us a little more insight into the type of player suited to this test. Stats are from St Andrews rounds only:

2022, Ryan Fox (-15). 67.6% fairways (12th), 81.5% greens in regulation (9th), 50% scrambling (42nd), 1.61 putts per GIR (2nd).
2021, Danny Willett (-18). 60.4% fairways (32nd), 87.5% greens in regulation (3rd), 66.7% scrambling (15th), 1.75 putts per GIR (16th).
2019, Victor Perez (-22). 70.6% fairways (21st), 90.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 42.9% scrambling (38th), 1.68 putts per GIR (12th).
2018, Lucas Bjerregaard (-15). 64.1% fairways (19th), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 41.7% scrambling (32nd), 1.68 putts per GIR (1st).
2017, Tyrrell Hatton (-24). 60.4% fairways (39th), 85.2% greens in regulation (1st), 100% scrambling (1st), 1.72 putts per GIR (13th).
2016, Tyrrell Hatton (-23). 72.9% fairways (27th), 83.3% greens in regulation (10th), 77.8% scrambling (11th), 1.73 putts per GIR (20th).
2015, Thorbjorn Olesen (-18). 57.0% fairways (130th), 86.1% greens in regulation (7th), 50% scrambling (87th), 1.69 putts per GIR (14th)
2014, Oliver Wilson (-17). 62.8% fairways (89th), 75.9% greens in regulation (64th), 88.5% scrambling (1st), 1.85 putts per GIR (89th)
2013, David Howell (-23). 69.9% fairways (93rd), 88.9% greens in regulation (10th), 75.0% scrambling (32nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (8th)
2012, Branden Grace (-22). 62.8% fairways (112th), 84.7% greens in regulation (10th), 63.6% scrambling (46th), 1.67 putts per GIR (6th)
2011, Michael Hoey (-22). 59.4% fairways (120th), 81.9% greens in regulation (29th), 81.8% scrambling (7th), 1.66 putts per GIR (7th)
2010, Martin Kaymer (-17). 73.5% fairways (40th), 81.9% greens in regulation (5th), 69.2% scrambling (10th), 1.78 putts per GIR (26th)

With the exception of Carnoustie, fairways are wide and greens large and easy to hit, so much of this event comes down to how players perform on and around the greens.

Converting birdie chances is critical if players are going to compile a contending score and minimising bogeys from off of the green is also vital in an event where somewhere around 20-under is typically the target to be in with a sniff on Sunday afternoon in average conditions.

As well as the event’s nuances that are more obvious in that a slow, pro-am event on 3 different links tracks isn’t likely to suit everyone, there are also some other important points to consider:

With the exception of Victor Perez in 2019, Tyrrell Hatton in 2016, Oliver Wilson in 2014 and Stephen Gallacher in 2004, every other winner of this event since 2001 already had a career victory on the European/DP World Tour.
GB & Ireland players have won 13 of those 21 Alfred Dunhill Links Championships, Karlsson (08), Kaymer (10), Grace (12), Olesen (15),Bjerregaard (18), Perez (19) and Fox (22) being the exceptions.
9 of the last 14 winners here had a win in the current or previous season to their name; 3 of those 14 were arriving here having won their previous event.
8 of the last 14 winners here had recorded at least a top-10 in this event in their career prior to winning.

Incoming Form. In terms of incoming form, the winners here since 2010 have been very mixed as is reflected by odds ranging from 16/1 to 500/1, and more than half of the winners in that period have been 100/1 or longer pre-event.

Martin Kaymer (16/1) in 2010 completed a personal hat-trick of wins here having captured the US PGA Championship and KLM Open in his two previous events. Michael Hoey (250/1) hadn’t finished inside the top 30 in his previous 10 starts, David Howell (125/1) had recorded a solitary top-10 in the previous 6 months, Oliver Wilson (500/1) had failed to make the top-30 in his previous 15 events, most of which were on the Challenge Tour, and Thorbjorn Olesen (200/1) had missed 10 of his previous 14 cuts after his return from a wrist injury.

Despite some good early-season form, Tyrrell Hatton arrived here in 2016 with incoming efforts of MC/MC/45, however his successful defence came off the back of consecutive top-8 finishes. 2012 winner Branden Grace (50/1) had shown poor recent form on the European Tour before winning here, although he did arrive fresh off the back of a low-key victory the previous week on the Sunshine Tour.

Lucas Bjerregaard had shown some of the most consistent form of recent victors here with 4 consecutive top-20 finishes before winning in 2018, included in which was a play-off defeat at Crans on his penultimate start, whereas Victor Perez had finished 10th in Sweden 3 starts before winning in 2019.

After the 2020 break for Covid, Danny Willett won here at 100/1 off of very patchy looking form. 33^rd at the Open Championship was solid, however 3 missed cuts and a tailed-off 71^st at Wentworth hardly inspired punters. In a similar vein, last year’s winner Ryan Fox had seemingly gone off the boil after some sparkling early season form, however he turned it around here in fine style. A very mixed bag indeed:

2022, Ryan Fox: 2/54/2/MC/3/2/47/MC/22/MC/WD/MC
2021, Danny Willett: 18/MC/11/64/26/67/MC/33/MC/MC/71/MC
2019, Victor Perez: 61/MC/MC/15/MC/MC/26/61/28/10/MC/MC
2018, Lucas Bjerregaard: 3/71/5/61/MC/MC/39/WD/9/6/2/20
2017, Tyrrell Hatton: 29/41/30/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/36/MC/3/8
2016, Tyrrell Hatton: 5/7/20/MC/33/2/5/10/17/MC/MC/45
2015, Thorbjorn Olesen: MC/MC/29/MC/MC/MC/33/MC/5/MC/67/MC
2014, Oliver Wilson: MC/33/MC/MC/MC/33/44/55/MC/MC/MC/47
2013, David Howell: DQ/MC/65/MC/71/8/42/17/MC/26/41/53
2012, Branden Grace: 17/5/25/51/MC/17/68/77/36/MC/76/1
2011, Michael Hoey: 70/1/31/54/66/MC/MC/34/MC/52/48/MC
2010, Martin Kaymer: 34/MC/28/12/8/21/6/MC/7/22/1/1

Event Form. Going back to 2010, half of the winners had fairly tangible form here – in fact Kaymer, Wilson, Olesen and Willett had all finished runner-up in this event previously in their respective careers and Hatton was defending champion in 2017.

David Howell had 4 top-8 finishes from 12 starts here prior to winning and clearly also enjoys the format. Hoey, Grace, Hatton (in 2016), Bjerregaard and Fox on the other hand would have been very difficult to pick out simply by eyeballing their previous efforts at the Alfred Dunhill Links, and Victor Perez was making his debut here in 2019:

2022, Ryan Fox: MC/MC/24/54/54
2021, Danny Willett: 42/2/27/5/MC/MC/52/MC/26
2019, Victor Perez: Debut
2018, Lucas Bjerregaard: 32/MC/MC/MC
2017, Tyrrell Hatton: MC/MC/1
2016, Tyrrell Hatton: MC/MC
2015, Thorbjorn Olesen: 45/2/MC/58
2014, Oliver Wilson: MC/32/MC/40/2/MC/21/34/59
2013, David Howell: 3/58/6/5/37/MC/MC/60/MC/8/MC/34
2012, Branden Grace: MC
2011, Michael Hoey: MC/19/MC
2010, Martin Kaymer: 15/2

In years where conditions have been tougher, it’s been players who’ve featured towards the top of the GIR stats on the week who’ve tended to prevail. This is links golf though so a strong short game is also of value and contenders will need to bring all aspects of their game this week if they’re going to compile a competitive total.

My selections are as follows:

Rasmus Hojgaard 2pts EW 40/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

Two of the returning heroes from Rome, Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick, occupy the top two positions in this week’s betting market with Robert MacIntyre given a little less respect by the bookmakers – perhaps his Proclaimers rendition suggests he might need some extra recovery time this week. Whether any of the trio can muster the enthusiasm and energy to get straight back into the saddle this week is debatable though, and as much as they’re respected I’ll look elsewhere for this week’s winner.

Ryan Fox will appeal to course/current form students although at 18/1 there’s very little juice in the price, and Talor Gooch will have to improve dramatically on his debut performance here 12 months ago when he shot 71, 75, 76 to miss the Sunday cut by some stretch to justify his price, despite some sparkling form on the LIV circuit this year.

Few others make any real appeal in the top dozen or so in the betting and given the history of longer-priced winners of this event, I’m happy to take a chance on Rasmus Hojgaard on the basis that watching his brother Nicolai last week in Rome will reinvigorate him this week.

Whilst Nicolai mustered just ½ point from his 3 matches at the Marco Simone, it was surely the first of multiple Ryder Cup appearances to come in the future and it’s a fair bet to suggest that Rasmus will be alongside him in years to come. These lads are still developing and learning, and all that Rasmus can do in the next 12 months before qualification starts again is keep improving and winning.

Of course desire and willpower alone won’t drag any player over the line in a professional event, however the Dane also ticks an awful lot of boxes for this week’s task.

A winner as recently as July when he snatched the Made in Himmerland from Nacho Elvira in a play-off, that season win is undoubtedly a positive ahead of this week given that 9 of the last 14 winners here had a win in the current or previous season to their name. That makes it 4 wins in total now at DP World Tour level at the age of 22, with all 4 victories coming between 13- and 19-under par which looks ideal for this week given the weather forecast.

17^th here on debut 12 months ago was impressive enough as he got to grips with the courses and the format, and there’s every reason to suggest that this type of test should suit given his results on courses with linksy characteristics. Himmerland is a case in point, and he was also 3^rd at the Dutch Open earlier this year; 4^th on his last start at Le Golf National, which is often described as having an inland links vibe, adds further fuel to the fire.

A strong long game tends to be Hojgaard’s best weapon, however 1^st for SG Putting last time out at Le Golf National on those bentgrass mix greens – the second year in succession that he’s achieved that feat – is an interesting spike in flat stick form, and if he can keep that going this week then he’s going to be dangerous. RESULT: T25

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Matt Wallace 2pts EW 45/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Commentating for BBC 5 Live probably wasn’t how Matt Wallace saw the Ryder Cup going when his qualification campaign started a year ago, however the fiery Englishman is the sort of player who could take the positives out of what was by all accounts an excellent radio debut and translate that to something special with his clubs back in his hands this week.

Despite a breakthrough win on the PGA Tour at the Corales Championship in March, in truth Matt’s loss of form that followed put paid to any lingering hopes he may have had of making Luke Donald’s team, and a late rally that saw him finish runner-up at the Czech Masters in late August was ultimately too little too late.

With his slim chance gone following a 24^th place finish at Crans, another caddy split followed; since then finishes of 61^st and 57^th at the Irish Open and at Wentworth respectively have kept a lid on his price, however I suspect his underlying game is in a better place than that right now. With the pressure off and last week’s experience a timely shot in the arm, finding Matt in contention here wouldn’t surprise me at all.

The Hillingdon man has plenty of links experience from his formative golf years around the British Isles and he’s come close a few times on links or linksy terrain in recent years, most notably when runner-up at Hillside in 2019 and when snatching defeat from the jaws of victory at Fairmont St Andrews a year later.

Form in this event is a little more positive than headline finishes of 59/28/15/MC would suggest, having sat in 6^th place to halfway on debut, co-led after day 1 the year after, and closing with a round of 65 at the Old Course in 2019, before missing Sunday last year. RESULT: T6

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Ewen Ferguson 1.5pts EW 60/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

A little further down the field, Ewen Ferguson appeals at a backable each-way price as he looks to rekindle the form that saw him win twice last year and come within a whisker of a third success at the Made in Himmerland last September.

The first of those wins came at the Doha-hosted Qatar Masters, a course that despite being in the Middle Eastern desert is one which time and again proves to be a good barometer for links golf. Galgorm Castle, the scene of his second victory is off less relevance; however had Oliver Wilson’s putter not caught fire at Himmerland last year then we’d have two strong enough links pointers in his record to make him a shortlist certainty for tests such as this.

Form in his homeland is solid if unspectacular for the Glaswegian with 6 of his last 7 cuts made on home soil and a best finish of 12^th on his last start at home, this time at the Renaissance Club in co-sanctioned PGA Tour company. 17^th here in 2021 is Ewen’s best effort from 3 attempts where he excelled from a SG Approach and SG Tee to Green perspective on his rounds at St Andrews, ranking 3^rd and 8^th respectively on those metrics.

10^th last time out at the Open de France saw some heat returning to the flat stick, eventually ranking 12^th for SG Putting, which is a positive sign in a season that’s seen him very up and down on the greens. That result leaves the 27 year-old in 47^th place on the Race to Dubai and perilously close to the bubble when it comes to securing a start at the Earth Course in a few weeks time – one big effort here this week can put that out of his mind. RESULT: T54

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Eddie Pepperell 1pt EW 80/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

Finally I’ll take a chance on England’s Eddie Pepperell who’s another that could take inspiration from last week’s battle in Rome.

GB & Ireland players have won more than half of the Dunhill Links titles since the turn of the century and it’s fair to say that much of Eddie’s best work over the years has been seen on course with a hint, or more than a hint, of links about them. Wins at the 2018 Qatar Masters and British Masters, the latter being hosted that year at Walton Heath with its heathland layout, back this point up to varying degrees, and a play-off defeat to Soren Kjeldsen at Royal County Down in 2015 is further evidence that he enjoys this style of golf.

A strong record at the Dutch Open on its various courses with linksy characteristics is positive and it’s no surprise that the Englishman’s best Major effort came at The Open, with 6^th place at the 2018 edition behind Francesco Molinari coming at Carnoustie, which forms part of this week’s course rotation.

Of course the reason we’re getting a premium on Pepperell’s price is that his form is extremely volatile and you’re just as likely to see him missing the cut as you are a contending performance, however for outright betting at a backable price I’m comfortable with that risk.

3^rd at the ISPS World Invitational after a month off was positive and he followed that up with 8^th at Crans Sur Sierre a fortnight later where he opened with a round of 63 to sit at the top of the pile after 18 holes. In typical fashion, missed cuts have followed since then at the Irish Open and also at Wentworth, however a return to links golf – and St Andrews where he’s made 5 straight cuts and a best of 7^th in 2017 – might just spark a positive week for Eddie. RESULT: T84

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