Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Amgen Irish Open Tips 2025

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After what turned out to be an emotional week for some in the Swiss Alps and another impressive victory for Thriston Lawrence, we move on to the K Club for the Amgen Irish Open with the tournament retaining its position in the schedule ahead of next week’s flagship event at Wentworth.

With Luke Donald having made his 6 picks for Bethpage on Monday, the Ryder Cup narrative that’s dominated the last few weeks is behind us now, although we still have some of Team Europe in attendance here this week as the players warm up for the main event at the end of the month.

World number 2 Rory McIlroy is the clear favourite for this week at around the 4/1 mark, with Ryder Cup team-mates Tyrrell Hatton and Shane Lowry his closest challengers in the market at around 11/1 and 16/1 respectively. Patrick Reed, Tom McKibbin, Brooks Koepka and Adrian Meronk venture across from LIV alongside Hatton in what is undoubtedly a strong renewal.

Course Overview.

The Irish Open tends to move around a bit in terms of venue and this year the Palmer Course at the Kildare Hotel and Golf Club – K Club to you and me – will host the Irish Open for the third time since 2016, well worth bearing this in mind when reviewing the event history stats this week

The track is a 7,441 yard par 72 located in Straffan, County Kildare a few miles west of Dublin and is a parkland course designed by Arnold Palmer that opened in 1991. Carved originally from 550 acres of beautiful Irish Countryside, the layout is a strong course for driving with water lurking on most holes, undulating fairways, and long Poa-Annua greens.

The course played host to the 2006 Ryder Cup where Ian Woosnam’s team smashed the Americans 18.5-9.5 in typically Irish weather conditions. The Palmer North Course was also the venue for the European Open between 1995-2003 and again in 2005 with the K Club’s other course, the links-style South Course, hosting the event in 2004, and 2006 and 2007.

The most relevant results though are the 2016 Irish Open won by Rory McIlroy plus the 2023 Irish Open won by Vincent Norrman, both of which hosted here on the North Course. Scoring didn’t get out of hand in either renewal with Rory’s 12-under total good enough for a 3-shot victory and Norrman’s 14-under which saw him win by a shot, so those players who can grind out a score when required may find this test to their liking.

irish open tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key statistics for this week’s event that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well in this event, although as previously noted this week’s venue hosted the event in 2016 & 2023 only in the data provided: Current Form | Event Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Our brand new predictor model is also available for this week’s Irish Open where you can build your own rankings in live time using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Event Winners. 2024: Rasmus Hojgaard, 22/1; 2023: Vincent Norrman, 50/1; 2022: Adrian Meronk, 22/1; 2021: Lucas Herbert, 33/1; 2020: John Catlin, 40/1; 2019: John Rahm, 8/1; 2018: Russell Knox, 28/1; 2017: Jon Rahm, 14/1; 2016: Rory McIlroy, 4/1; 2015: Soren Kjeldsen, 150/1; 2014: Mikko Ilonen, 80/1; 2013: Paul Casey, 50/1; 2012: Jamie Donaldson, 66/1; 2011: Simon Dyson, 25/1; 2010: Ross Fisher, 20/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

Sunshine and showers is the overall summary for the four days of tournament play, with temperatures reaching around 18 Centigrade/64 Fahrenheit in the afternoons. The breeze will be noticeable and persistent at around 12-15 mph for the first few days before stepping up a notch on Saturday to around 20 mph.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Looking at the last few Irish Opens gives us some idea of that kind of skill-sets that this week’s test may demand:

  • 2024: Rasmus Hojgaard. 313 yards (3rd), 35.7% fairways (67th), 66.7% greens in regulation (9th), 62.5% scrambling (11th), 1.73 putts per GIR (9th).
  • 2023: Vincent Norrman. 308 yards (14th), 57.1% fairways (50th), 75.0% greens in regulation (14th), 72.2% scrambling (9th), 1.71 putts per GIR (36th).
  • 2022: Adrian Meronk. 288 yards (39th), 44.6% fairways (70th), 82.0% greens in regulation (1st), 61.5% scrambling (50th), 1.65 putts per GIR (10th).
  • 2021: Lucas Herbert. 313 yards (5th), 53.6% fairways (35th), 68.1% greens in regulation (34th), 73.9% scrambling (15th), 1.60 putts per GIR (5th).
  • 2020: John Catlin. 279 yards (55th), 62.5% fairways (6th), 72.2% greens in regulation (6th), 80% scrambling (2nd), 1.78 putts per GIR (26th).
  • 2019: Jon Rahm. 309 yards (4th), 60.7% fairways (3rd), 73.6% greens in regulation (17th), 52.6% scrambling (50th), 1.65 putts per GIR (8th).
  • 2018: Russell Knox. 305 yards (18th), 53.3% fairways (19th), 77.8% greens in regulation (1st), 62.5% scrambling (18th), 1.73 putts per GIR (15th).
  • 2017: Jon Rahm. 302 yards (8th), 51.8% fairways (36th), 81.9% greens in regulation (4th), 46.2% scrambling (56th), 1.61 putts per GIR (3rd).
  • 2016: Rory McIlroy. 293 yards (9th), 60.7% fairways (23rd), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), 58.3% scrambling (21st), 1.87 putts per GIR (52nd).
  • 2015: Soren Kjeldsen. 280 yards (28th), 67.9% fairways (5th), 62.5% greens in regulation (18th), 66.7% scrambling (5th), 1.82 putts per GIR (19th).
  • 2014: Mikko Ilonen. 291 yards (31st), 51.9% fairways (31st), 73.6% greens in regulation (27th), 78.9% scrambling (1st), 1.66 putts per GIR (6th).
  • 2013: Paul Casey. 287 yards (18th), 44.6% fairways (41st), 73.6% greens in regulation (10th), 68.4% scrambling (10th), 1.68 putts per GIR (4th).
  • 2012: Jamie Donaldson. 289 yards (8th), 58.9% fairways (35th), 62.5% greens in regulation (64th), 63.0% scrambling (5th), 1.51 putts per GIR (1st).

A variety of different courses used may explain the disparity between stats in the results above and, depending on the course and conditions being played on any given year, either high GIR or a strong short game has been the winning formula in general.

Looking at 2016 and 2023 in particular for both Rory McIlroy’s and Vincent Norrman’s wins here at the K Club, GIR was the most consistent statistic although both men also ranked inside the top 14 for Driving Distance:

  • 2023: Vincent Norrman. 308 yards (14th), 57.1% fairways (50th), 75.0% greens in regulation (14th), 72.2% scrambling (9th), 1.71 putts per GIR (36th).
  • 2016: Rory McIlroy. 293 yards (9th), 60.7% fairways (23rd), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), 58.3% scrambling (21st), 1.87 putts per GIR (52nd).

Incoming Form: There are positives to pick out of the recent form of our past 13 Irish Open champions and none arrived in what you’d class as poor form.

All 13 had recorded a top-20 finish in their previous 7 outings, with eight of our last nine winners each having finished in the top four in one of their previous five starts.

A similar trend continues with Dyson (2011) and Fisher (2010), broken eventually by the shock win from Shane Lowry as an amateur back in 2009:

  • 2024, Rasmus Hojgaard: MC/20/4/21/60/53/3/17
  • 2023, Vincent Norrman: MC/MC/24/1/25/50/58/49
  • 2022, Adrian Meronk: 61/28/3/3/MC/6/3/MC
  • 2021, Lucas Herbert: MC/70/46/MC/MC/71/18/19
  • 2020, John Catlin: 8/43/51/6/MC/25/1/8
  • 2019, Jon Rahm: 12/6/24/9/MC/MC/3/2
  • 2018, Russell Knox: MC/MC/16/20/44/12/38/2
  • 2017, Jon Rahm: 10/27/4/72/2/MC/MC/10
  • 2016, Rory McIlroy: 20/MC/3/27/4/10/4/12
  • 2015, Soren Kjeldsen: MC/45/MC/14/MC/31/9/18
  • 2014, Mikko Ilonen: 5/33/37/MC/8/MC/38/32
  • 2013, Paul Casey: MC/16/MC/8/MC/51/45/53
  • 2012, Jamie Donaldson: 51/3/63/44/15/53/WD/22

Looking at the two results from the K Club in particular, McIlroy had been contending in elite company over his previous 4 outings and Norrman had won the Barbasol Championship a couple of months before, plus had shown the odd spark in his four outings since that result, so a solid case could have been made for both.

Event Form: Given the nomadic nature of this event, the mixed nature of Irish Open results for our recent winners isn’t overly surprising:

  • 2024, Rasmus Hojgaard: 41/MC/MC
  • 2023, Vincent Norrman: 61
  • 2022, Adrian Meronk: 10/MC
  • 2021, Lucas Herbert: 55/7
  • 2020, John Catlin: Debut
  • 2019, Jon Rahm: 1/4
  • 2018, Russell Knox: 2
  • 2017, Jon Rahm: Debut
  • 2016, Rory McIlroy: MC/7/50/35/34/10/MC/MC/MC
  • 2015, Soren Kjeldsen: MC/33/MC/35/6/64/MC/45/35/30/MC/18/MC
  • 2014, Mikko Ilonen: 49/MC/WD/16/MC/MC/10/32
  • 2013, Paul Casey: MC/13/2
  • 2012, Jamie Donaldson: MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/13/21/45

The K Club’s parkland setup renders a lot of the Irish Open links-based results as interesting fact rather than useful research, however with plenty of comparable courses and results across the UK and Ireland to study – plus of course results from 2016 and 2023 here – there are still some good pointers out there for this week.

My final Irish Open tips are as follows:

Grant Forrest 1.5pts EW 75/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Although Ryder Cup storylines are now behind us, the top of the market is dominated by three of Team Europe’s key players and working out how to play this Irish Open renewal from a betting perspective is a bit of a conundrum.

At around 4/1, Rory Mcilroy is the clear and obvious favourite to win his second Irish Open title, the first of which came here at the K Club back in 2016 at the same kind of price. Picking holes in the Masters Champion’s chances this week isn’t an easy task and he could well win this at a canter if he’s on top form, however that ‘A Game’ certainly wasn’t evident last time out at East Lake and he’d be forgiven for having more than one eye on Bethpage in a few weeks time.

Tyrrell Hatton’s hardly been firing on all cylinders on LIV of late, failing to break the top 20 on his three outings since The Open and hasn’t made a cut in the Irish Open since finishing 5th here in 2016, which leaves Shane Lowry as the most tempting of the leading trio for me. 16/1 hardly excites though given that he too may be a little distracted after his Captain’s pick from Luke Donald on Monday, following what he described as a stressful few weeks.

My preference this week is to go with a small, speculative team that avoids the top of the market, headlined by Grant Forrest who was so impressive when victorious at the Nexo Championship last month when carrying our money.

A 4-stroke victory on the Scottish coast doesn’t quite tell the whole story as the 32 year-old played some outstanding golf in the wind, building a commanding lead which affording him the luxury of making double-bogey on the 72nd hole when coasting home. The Scot led the field for SG Tee to Green for the second consecutive tournament that week, complimenting that statistic with 9th for SG off the Tee and 2nd for SG Approach, and although this isn’t links golf here at the K Club, a breezy forecast will demand some of the same types of shot that he executed so well in Aberdeen.

5th last year at Royal County Down isn’t a surprising result on Forrest’s CV given his links prowess, however 4th at Mount Juliet in 2021 and 3rd here at the K Club in 2023 is more than enough to convince me that he can compete with the market leaders here this week.

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Keita Nakajima 2pts EW 45/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Having backed Keita Nakajima last week in the Swiss Alps where he finished in a tie for 17th, I’ll keep the faith this week on a course that should carry less of a disadvantage in terms of experience.

A weekend 66/65 wasn’t enough to get the Japanese star beyond the fringes of contention, despite impressive scoring bursts on both days which meant he recorded back-9s of 30 and 29 over his final 2 rounds. 7-under for the Par-3s on the week led the field on that count though and suggests that he’s striking his irons very nicely at present, despite his headline stats not really reflecting that point.

4th at The Belfry ticks the recent top-4 finish that 8 of the last 9 Irish Open champions have displayed, and his field-leading Driving Accuracy stats that week, coupled with 3rd on the same count last week, should set him in good stead on this tricky test.

With anything approaching double-digits under par likely to be in serious contention this week, the 25 year-old’s 4-stroke win at last year’s Indian Open coupled with a runner-up finish on that quirky, difficult course in Delhi tells me that he has the temperament to dig in when required.

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John Catlin 1pt EW 110/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

When taking on the market leaders this week, I want a certain type of player who has the aptitude to dig in and churn out pars when the situation dictates and the American is exactly that type of character. 3 times a winner at DP World Tour level, his first victory came at 2-over par at the 2020 Andalucia Masters hosted at the perennially unforgiving Valderrama golf club.

10 under was the mark when he won this title at Galgorm Castle as golf got back on its feet following the pandemic, and he backed that up with a 14-under success at Diamond Country Club in Austria the following April on a course where the scoring never gets out of hand and if anything is slightly inflated due to the par of 72. Make no mistake, when it’s tough Catlin can excel.

Having won twice on the Asian Tour last year, the 34 year-old hasn’t quite hit the same heights in 2025 with 7th at the New Zealand Open on the Australasian Tour and 8th at the Austrian Open at this level his best results, however an opening round of 65 last week at Crans hints that his results could be on an upward trajectory once again.

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Todd Clements 1pt EW 200/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Finally I’ll take a chance on Todd Clements whose price seems a little dismissive given that he’s finished inside the top 7 twice in his last four starts.

The Englishman celebrated his 29th birthday last week while playing in the Swiss Alps, and although that didn’t propel him on to anything better than a tie for 28th, hitting over 80% of greens on that track is noteworthy and suggests to me that he’s not a million miles away from the form that saw him finish 3rd at the Barracuda Championship and 7th at the Nexo Championship behind Grant Forrest.

The Colchester man’s maiden DP World Tour title came at the 2023 Czech Masters on a comparable length Par 72 at the end of August that year, which is positive both in terms of this week’s layout and biorhythms. His 2022 Irish Challenge victory on the second tier came next door on the Palmer South Course here at the K Club, so if nothing else he should have some positive vibes coming back to this part of the world.

3rd at the 2019 ISPS Handa World Invitational is further positive form on the island of Ireland, and having handled the wind well in Aberdeen last month I’m happy to give Clements a chance here given the price on offer.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:55BST 1.9.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation