Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford's Austin Championship Tips 2026

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It was heartbreak last week for me with Ben James losing in a play-off to 19-year-old Blades Brown who was 33/1 with BOYLE Sports on Monday first show. That’s a couple of runner-up finishes now for James across this Fall Series at 28/1 and 20/1. Ouch!

With only this and the RSM Classic next week in terms of 2026 PGA Tour events left to play, there are plenty of motivating factors this week such as:

  • Official World Golf Ranking top 50 spot (invite for the 2027 Masters arriving pre-Christmas for those not already exempt)
  • AON Next 10 FedExCup Fall Series spot (entry into the big money AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am & Genesis Invitational tournaments early in 2027)
  • FedExCup Fall Series top 100 (Full Tour Card playing privileges for 2027 for those not already exempt)
  • FedExCup Fall Series top 101 – 125 (Conditional Tour Status for 2027 for those not already exempt)

It’s a strong enough Fall Series field this week in Austin, Texas. Daniel Berger, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Blades Brown, Eric Cole, Brian Harman, Max Homa, Stephan Jaeger, Johnny Keefer, Jackson Koivun, Marco Penge, Seamus Power, Jordan Smith, Austin Smotherman and Nick Taylor all play.

Before we go into the detail surrounding the Austin Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,600 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

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You can read Liam Williams’ Power Rankings for the Austin Championship at bet365 News.

Course Guide: The Fazio Canyons Course at Omni Barton Creek Resort is a new venue on the PGA Tour. Located in Austin, Texas, this Fazio-designed course opened in 1999 and has hosted the 2005 Barton Creek Classic on the PGA Canadian Tour, where Erik Compton finished runner-up. The 2006 Barton Creek Classic also used the Canyons Course, but only for a single round. Noteworthy that the next door Fazio Foothills course has seen competitive action such as the PGA Cup, Senior PGA Professional Championship and PGA Professional Championship. This is a different course though, which in 2022 received a $5 million renovation with over 150 yards of length added.

Fazio Canyons Course, Omni Barton Creek Resort & Spa, Austin, Texas: Designer: Tom Fazio 1999, with Fazio 2022 renovation; Course Type: Medium, Mid-Score; Par: 72; Length: 7,451 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-Play: 6; Number of Sand Bunkers: 42; Fairways: Tifway 419 Bermudagrass; Rough: Bermudagrass; Greens: MiniVerde UltraDwarf Bermudagrass.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths at the Fazio Canyons and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:

  • Fazio Canyons: Average 25 -55 yards at 300 yards.
  • El Cardonal: Average 60 yards up to 70 yards wide.
  • Black Desert: Average 30 yards up to 70-100 yards at 300 yards.
  • The Cliffs at Walnut Cove: 35-45 yards at 300 yards.
  • East Lake: 30-32 yards at 300 yards.
  • Bellerive: 27-29 yards at 300 yards.
  • TPC Southwind: 25 yards at 300 yards.
  • Sedgefield Country Club: 28 yards at 300 yards.
  • Detroit Golf Club: 26 yards at 300 yards.
  • TPC Twin Cities: 36 yards at 300 yards.
  • Corales GC: 75 yards at 300 yards.
  • Hurstbourne CC: 25-30 yards at 300 yards
  • TPC Deere Run: 36 yards at 300 yards.
  • TPC River Highlands: 29 yards at 300 yards.
  • Shinnecock Hills: 45 yards at 300 yards.
  • TPC Toronto: 35-37 yards at 300 yards.
  • Muirfield Village: 24 yards at 300 yards.
  • Colonial: 25-30 yards at 300 yards.
  • TPC Craig Ranch: 25-28 yards.
  • Aronimink: 30 yards.
  • Quail Hollow: 28 yards.
  • Blue Monster, Doral: 25-40 yards.
  • Harbour Town: 22-25 yards.
  • Augusta National: Average 50 yards.
  • Oaks Course: 25-30 yards.
  • Memorial Park: 30–40 yards.
  • Copperhead: Average 20 yards.
  • TPC Sawgrass: Average 28 yards.
  • Bay Hill: Average 30 yards.
  • PGA National: Average 28 yards.
  • Riviera: Average 27 yards.
  • Pebble Beach: Average 30-33 yards. Spyglass Hill: 25-30 yards.
  • TPC Scottsdale: Average 38 yards.
  • Torrey Pines South: Average 24-27 yards. Torrey Pines North: Average 24-27 yards.
  • Pete Dye Stadium: Average 33 yards.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Tom Fazio PGA Tour designs and renovations include:

  • Atunyote GC – Turning Stone Championship 2007-10.
  • Caves Valley GC – BMW Championship2021 + 2025.
  • Congaree GC – Palmetto Championship 2021 + CJ Cup 2022.
  • Conway Farms GC – BMW Championship 2013, 2015, 2017.
  • Corales GC – Corales Championship
  • Eagle Point – Wells Fargo Championship 2017.
  • Raptor Course Greyhawk GC – Fry’s.com Open 2008/09.
  • Shadow Creek GC – CJ Cup 2020.
  • The Summit Club – CJ Cup 2021.

Fazio has also had renovation input into:

  • Riviera Country Club – Genesis Invitational.
  • Merion – 2013 U.S. Open.
  • Oakmont – 2016 U.S. Open.
  • Quail Hollow – 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2024 Wells Fargo Championship + 2026 Truist Championship, 2017 + 2025 PGA Championship.
  • Seaside Course at Sea Island – RSM Classic

Course Overview: Designed by renowned architect Tom Fazio and opened in 1999, the Fazio Canyons Course at Omni Barton Creek Resort in Austin, Texas, provides the setting for the inaugural Austin Championship. Extensively renovated in 2022 at a cost of approximately $5 million, the course plays as a 7,451-yard, Par 72, featuring 4 par-5s and 4 par-3s. Carved through the rolling limestone canyons of the Texas Hill Country, the layout features dramatic elevation changes, natural ravines, winding creeks, and mature trees. The fairways are Tifway 419 Bermudagrass, while the putting surfaces feature MiniVerde UltraDwarf Bermudagrass. 42 sand bunkers is sparse, with many greens relatively unguarded by sand, placing greater emphasis on approach positioning and the natural hazards surrounding the playing corridors.

Fairway widths vary, but at an average of 38 yards are generous enough. They vary though between 25 and 55 yards, and what is noticeable is the lack of straight-away driving required here. Plenty of holes see fairways at 45 degree angles, with some of them having natural pinch points, which can be ravines or encroaching trees. This course has a slight habit of restricting driving distance, which could well be a disadvantage to longer hitters.

The 4 par-3s measure between 175 and 230 yards, with 3 of them over 215 yards, so they will be challenging. No par-4 measures further than 500 yards, with the front 9 offering what appears an easy start to the round featuring 400 and 405 yard par-4s and a potentially driveable 344 yard par-4, with a 175 yard par-3 thrown in. All-in-all there are 6 par-4s at sub-450 yards.

The par-5s are intriguing with doglegs, ravines intersecting fairways, and the 18th featuring a green complex that is defended principally by a substantial creek and steep-sided gulley, rather than conventional greenside bunkering. It reminds me slightly of the 13th at Augusta National where the green is defended along its right-hand side length by Rae’s Creek.

The course is bedecked with Bermudagrass from tee to green with MiniVerde UltraDwarf Bermudagrass greens. Other PGA Tour courses with similar green agronomy are Memorial Park Golf Course (overseeded with Poa Trivialis – Texas Children’s Houston Open) plus TPC Louisiana (overseeded with Poa Trivialis – Zurich Classic of New Orleans).

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | First Round Leader.

My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Chris Kirk; 2) Ben Kohles; 3) Seamus Power; 4) Mackenzie Hughes; 5) Brian Harman; 6) Max Homa; 7) Eric Cole; 8) Taylor Moore; 9) Tom Hoge; 10) Davis Thompson.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Austin, Texas, is here.

First point to highlight is that Austin has seen lots of rain in the build-up. 83mm (3.27 inch) of rain in October has now been backed up with 67mm (2.66 inch) in November, the majority of which was on Saturday and Sunday. With 90% chance of more precipitation on Monday, I think we’ll see a soft course on Thursday and with a lack of real heat ongoing throughout the tournament. There’s also a strong chance of rain – without electrical activity – on Sunday.

With 18-25 degree Celsius (64-68 Fahrenheit) temperatures throughout the tournament, we’re taking a step down from what we seen throughout the Fall Series. Wind won’t be a factor for the opening 54 holes, but Sunday sees a forecast of south-easterly wind gusting to 30mph, which will undoubtedly slow scoring considerably.

Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Biltmore Championship / PGA BMW Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

  • Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) David Ford / Austin Smotherman; 3) Blades Brown; 4) Neal Shipley; 5) Ricky Castillo / Joel Dahmen; 7) Jesper Svensson; 8) Rico Hoey; 9) Brian Harman / Kris Ventura / Sudarshan Yellamaraju; 12) Matt McCarty; 13) Zach Bauchou; 14) Doug Ghim; 15) Ben Kohles / Taylor Pendrith; 17) Seamus Power / Alejandro Tosti; 19) Pierceson Coody / Hao-tong Li; 21) Gordon Sargent; 22) Takumi Kanaya; 23) Jackson Suber; 24) Johnny Keefer; 25) C.T. Pan.
  • Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Andrew Novak; 2) Chris Kirk; 3) Austin Smotherman; 4) Eric Cole; 5) Stephan Jaeger / Matt McCarty; 7) Zach Bauchou; 8) Austin Eckroat / Ben Kohles / Jackson Suber; 11) Ricky Castillo; 12) Doug Ghim; 13) Brian Harman / John Parry; 15) Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen / Patrick Rodgers; 17) Paul Peterson; 18) Lucas Glover / Karl Vilips; 20) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Blades Brown / Trace Crowe / Jordan Smith; 24) Cam Davis / Johnny Keefer.
  • Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Alvaro Ortiz; 2) Stephan Jaeger; 3) Brian Harman / Chris Kirk; 5) Mackenzie Hughes / Miles Russell / Jordan Smith; 8) Nick Dunlap / Doug Ghim; 10) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Takumi Kanaya / Sudarshan Yellamaraju; 13) Ricky Castillo; 14) Sami Valimaki; 15) Michael Thompson; 16) Ben Kohles / Nick Taylor; 18) Chad Ramey; 19) Vince Whaley; 20) Zac Blair / Seamus Power; 22) Zach Bauchou / John Parry; 24) David Skinns; 25) Jackson Koivun.
  • Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Doug Ghim; 2) Austin Smotherman; 3) Chris Kirk; 4) Zach Bauchou; 5) Ricky Castillo; 6) Blades Brown; 7) Andrew Novak; 8) Ben Kohles; 9) Jordan Smith; 10) Brian Harman; 11) Seamus Power; 12) Sudarshan Yellamaraju; 13) Rico Hoey / Jackson Suber; 15) Kris Ventura; 16) John Parry; 17) Neal Shipley; 18) Stephan Jaeger; 19) Lucas Glover; 20) Isaiah Salinda / Karl Vilips; 22) Alvaro Ortiz; 23) Trace Crowe / Johnny Keefer; 25) Peter Malnati / Jordan Smith.
  • Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Brian Harman; 2) Adrien Dumont de Chassart; 3) Seamus Power; 4) C.T. Pan; 5) Austin Smotherman; 6) Ricky Castillo; 7) Davis Riley; 8) Billy Horschel; 9) Max Greyserman; 10) Brendon Todd / Vince Whaley; 12) Doug Ghim / Max Homa; 14) David Ford; 15) Luke Clanton / Taylor Moore; 17) Beau Hossler / Andrew Novak; 19) Brice Garnett / Chad Ramey; 21) Blades Brown / Sami Valimaki; 23) Trace Crowe / A.J. Ewart / Alejandro Tosti.
  • Top 25 SG Total: 1) Brian Harman; 2) Austin Smotherman; 3) Seamus Power; 4) Doug Ghim; 5) Blades Brown / Chris Kirk; 7) Jordan Smith; 8) Ricky Castillo; 9) Ben Kohles; 10) Alvaro Ortiz; 11) Andrew Novak; 12) Trace Crowe; 13) Stephan Jaeger; 14) Zach Bauchou / Sudarshan Yellamaraju; 16) Neal Shipley; 17) David Ford / Rico Hoey; 19) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Luke Clanton; 21) Billy Horschel; 22) Zac Blair / Austin Eckroat / Johnny Keefer / Jackson Koivun / Karl Vilips.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

  • 4 – Billy Horschel, Chris Kirk.
  • 3 – Matt Kuchar, Nick Taylor.
  • 2 – Daniel Berger, Lucas Glover, Mackenzie Hughes, Peter Malnati.
  • 1 – Rafael Campos, Nick Dunlap, Austin Eckroat, Brian Harman, Joe Highsmith, Max Homa, Stephan Jaeger, Patton Kizzire, Luke List, Taylor Moore, Andrew Novak, C.T. Pan, Seamus Power, Davis Riley, Adam Schenk, Austin Smotherman, Kevin Streelman, Adam Svensson, Michael Thompson, Brendon Todd, Sami Valimaki, Aaron Wise, Kevin Yu.

My Final Austin Championship tips are as follows:

Doug Ghim 2.5pts EW 18/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes

This will be a home game for Doug Ghim, who attended the University of Texas in Austin. Recent Texas Longhorns team members on the PGA Tour include Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth and Jhonattan Vegas, whilst amongst this field look out for Pierceson Coody, Beau Hossler and the “Ghimster” himself.

If Ghim was ever going to win a maiden PGA Tour event, right now seems the perfect spot. Across my 8-week Strokes Gained Analysis in this field he ranks in the top 15 for Off the Tee, Approach and Putting (his nemesis), the top 5 for Current Form, and 1st for Tee to Green. Decent enough!

And whilst I’ve been a critic of Ghim and his Sunday abilities across his last 9 starts, he’s been in contention across the John Deere Classic (started Sunday 6th/finished 6th), Bank of Utah Championship (started Sunday 2nd/finished 2nd), and the Mexico Open (started Sunday 3rd/finished 6th). It’s progress and the next stop has to be a maiden PGA Tour title. At 58th in the FedEx Cup Fall Series, he’ll arrive keen to seal a top 10 AON Next 10 berth for early 2027.

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Pierceson Coody 1.5pts EW 35/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

He’s been mentioned already in this betting preview – step forward Texas Longhorn and University of Texas alumni Pierceson Coody. 6th and 33rd over his fortnight in Mexico, he now returns to his home state of Texas where he tends to play well enough. 5th (2024), 16th (2025) and 22nd (2026) at Colonial, plus 19th (2024) and 25th (2025) at TPC Craig Ranch, fairways are generous here on the Fazio Canyons layout, so if this course plays to a longer sort who can get blistering with the putter then Pierceson fits.

4th for Tee to Green, powered by 16th for Off the Tee, 7th for Approach and 21st for Around the Green, it was his putter that misfired on the Paspalum greens last week. He was also 1st for Greens in Regulation and 3rd for Ball Striking prior to arriving back in his home state, with a game that is in rude health. Has nothing to lose and all to gain this week.

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Seamus Power 1.5pts EW 40/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

It’s a step into the unknown this week in Austin, but I’m making it with Seamus Power. Now this is a player who made it to the 2022 WGC Dell Technologies Match Play Quarter-Finals at Austin Country Club, which is 7 miles down the road from this week’s venue, namely the Omni Barton Creek Resort & Spa. That course was pretty undulating and had Bermudagrass greens overseeded with Poa Trivialis, and I think Power will take stock from having elite-level success in Austin when arriving here.

A Fall Series results record that reads 7th at the Biltmore, 20th at the Bank of Utah, 2nd at Bermuda, and 8th at the World Wide Technology tells you all you need to know about the Irishman’s game right now, and reminds me very much of the form he had when winning his maiden PGA Tour event in 2021 at the Barbasol Championship in Kentucky. His second win in 2022 came on the Bermudagrass greens of Port Royal the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, so the Canyons Course for me should be right up his street.

Power in this field across my 8-week Strokes Gained Analysis ranks in the top 20 for Off the Tee, in the top 15 for Tee to Green, and the top 5 for both Putting and Current Form.

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Peter Malnati 1pt EW 180/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

In the rare periods when he’s driving the ball straight and hitting his approaches well, Peter Malnati is a definite handful. A 2-time PGA Tour winner, his latest 2024 Valspar Championship win exemption expires at the close of this season – so at 148th in the Fall Series Points List, it’s now or never for the 39 year-old.

He’s clearly aware of his status problems – and form is undoubtedly improving. 17th at the Biltmore Championship saw Peter in the top 25 for Greens in Regulation (a rarity) plus, from a Strokes Gained perspective, 4th for Approach (even rarer) and 13th for Tee to Green. To put that into perspective, that was Peter’s 3rd-best career Tee to Green performance (at the time), plus he shot rounds of -6/66 (Thursday) and -7/64 (Sunday) which were T3 and T6 best rounds of their respective day’s play.

We were then on-board at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship where Peter was in 24th spot before play was halted for good on Saturday. Malnati was in the top 14 for Strokes Gained Off the Tee (another rarity). That brings me to last week where at the WWT Peter and his yellow ball popped-up in 2nd spot after 36 holes at El Cardonal after a Friday -8/64. He finished in the top 20 eventually, ranking 4th for Driving Accuracy, 8th for Total Driving, 7th for Greens in Regulation and 4th for Ball Striking. That equated to 11th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green, which at +7.83 was his highest on the PGA Tour.

Both of his wins have come on Bermudagrass greens in Mississippi and Florida, so a trip to Texas with tee-to-green Bermudagrass agronomy could be just the ticket to fire him into the coveted top 125 in the Fall Series list.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 14:24GMT 09.11.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.

About The Author - Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford is co-founder and part of our editorial team at Golf Betting System and he focuses mainly on the PGA Tour. Steve has been involved in the gambling industry for over 15 years and has a passion for golf as well as football, horse racing and MMA, where he has developed a deep understanding of both online and offline betting gathered through practical experience. Steve also hosts the popular Golf Betting System podcast.

You can find out more about Steve’s involvement with Golf Betting System here.

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