AVIV Dubai Championship Tips 2021

The Monday withdrawal of Portugal Masters winner Thomas Pieters from this week’s field takes away one dilemma having seen the Belgian win twice in quick succession in the past, however that still leaves the quality of Paul Casey and Tommy Fleetwood heading this week’s field.

Both players have the ability to step down to the European Tour and swat away the lower-grade opposition with relative ease, and as ever it’s tough to justify backing against them. Casey’s long game has been indifferent of late which may help us a little, resulting in finishes of 64^th, 38^th, MC and 25^th over his past 4 starts on the PGA Tour, however form prior to that was pretty impressive at elite level it has to be said.

Fleetwood, on the other hand, has seen his results improving as Casey’s have been dropping backwards, with 2^nd at the Italian Open, 7^th at the Dunhill Links and 7^th at the Zozo Championship in recent times. If I were to be pushed then Fleetwood would be my preference given his more positive momentum, however both should be targeting next week for their peak performance and to that end I’ll back a hungry young buck in the shape of Min Woo Lee to take the chance of winning a 3^rd European Tour title this week instead.

At 6^th in the Race to Dubai, Lee’s position on the season-long charts has been achieved the hard way with most of the players he’s rubbing shoulders with having gained their elevated positions from performances at Majors and WGCs. Victory at the Scottish Open was the biggest contributor to the Australian’s cause given it was at Rolex Series level, however 21^st at the British Masters, 17^th at the Irish Open, 12^th at the Italian Open, 8^th at the Portugal Masters and 2^nd at Valderrama are all commendable efforts in 2021 that have bolstered his position.

Exposed tracks seem to be the forte of the 23 year-old who adopts the stinger with ease when it’s called upon, and I suspect we’ll see his record improve over time in the desert to compliment an already strong links(y) record with the Vic Open and Scottish Open already to his name. 4^th at the Saudi International in 2019 in strong company is a case in point and the almost linksy features here in places will likely suit his eye on debut.

Poor form in the desert to start 2021 can best be explained by a long game that wasn’t remotely close to firing on all cylinders; recent outings of 2^nd at Valderrama – which really doesn’t suit – saw him rank 1^st for SG Off the Tee and 5^th for SG Tee to Green, and he was only slightly off those heights last week in Portugal on his was to 8^th place overall.

With Australian golf on a high after Lucas Herbert’s win on the PGA Tour the week before last, seeing Min Woo Lee convert another European Tour victory while his game’s in good shape would not surprise me one iota. RESULT: T4

“It’s been fantastic and hopefully it can continue and I can show this form in some of the biggest events in the world. I just want to give my family a good life through my golf,” the words of Dean Burmester after winning the SA PGA Championship on Sunday on the Sunshine Tour.

The quote is relevant in my mind as it shows a level of intent for this week and next, or at least implies as much. Truth is, I had the 32 year-old in mind for this week before he proved victorious at St Francis Links, although his win did make me reassess his chances for this week. I’ll stick to my guns though and work on the basis that his success will give him the momentum for further fireworks at European Tour level, rather than his game prove to have already peaked a week early.

The reason he was shortlisted for this event before last week’s effort was simply that he ticks pretty much every box that I’m interested in. Like last year’s winner Antoine Rozner, Dean is one of the longest hitters on Tour and that should open this course up for him as it did for last year’s champion. Rozner also featured prominently on Bogey Avoidance and Scrambling stats, suggesting that this course is as much about keeping a clean card as it is carding red numbers, and at 26^th and 21^st for the season on those two counts, Burmester is right up there with category leaders.

Aside from last week’s effort, the Zimbabwe-born bomber also won in Tenerife earlier in the year to add a second European Tour title to his tally, carding a terrific 25-under total on the Bermuda greens there to secure a 5-stoke victory; with similar agronomy and similar scoring conditions expected, that effort could prove to be a very good pointer. 4^th the week after that victory also suggests he can maintain top form when he finds it, which is encouraging given last week’s result.

7^th in Abu Dhabi in 2017, 3^rd at the Dubai Desert Classic and 11^th in Saudi in 2020, plus 4^th twice at the neighbouring Earth Course here at Jumeirah in 2017 and 2018, demonstrates his comfort in this part of the world. With this week and next to attack, he can build on his 19^th spot on the Race to Dubai and career-best 86^th in the OWGR where he currently finds himself, and in turn really start to fulfil the sentiment in that quote from Sunday’s success. RESULT: T44

3 straight missed cuts in October at the Dunhill Links, Spanish Open and Andalucia Masters looked to signal the end of a brief renaissance from Victor Perez in the late summer, however 8^th last week on his Vilamoura debut was eye-catching and I’m happy to give him a chance here at a solid price.

In truth, that small upturn in form we witnessed in August and September that saw the Frenchman sit in 6^th place after 54 holes at both the Cazoo Classic and Italian Open was too little, too late for a player who had a live chance of sneaking into the Ryder Cup team due to its elongated qualification period. Perhaps the pressure got too much for the 29 year-old after he won the Dunhill Links in 2019 and followed that up with runner-up finishes in Turkey and Abu Dhabi before everyone’s world changed. Maybe he had far too much time to dwell on his likely – at the time – debut appearance in Padraig Harrington’s team and that took its toll.

2^nd at Wentworth, 7^th at the Earth Course, 4^th at the Saudi International, 9^th at the Players Championship and 4^th at the WGC Match Play saw Victor reach a career-high 29^th in the OWGR after lockdown eased and everything seemed to be on track before his results collapsed, yet on paper those efforts are in the main great form for this week. Wentworth and the WGC were both in decent company, Dubai and Saudi were in the desert, and TPC Sawgrass is played on Bermuda greens like this week, and replicating anything close to the form he found on any of those weeks here in a truncated, weaker field has got to give him a chance.

Last week’s effort started slowly with a round of 72, followed up by scores of 68,68 and 65 to record his best finish globally since that aforementioned WGC, and for a player more renowned for his long game skills it was refreshing to see the putter doing the damage last week, ranking 2^nd for SG putting overall on the week. Couple that with anything approaching his best form from tee to green and he’ll be a live contender here this week. RESULT: T24

Finally I’ll take a chance on one of last year’s runners-up here at the Fire Course, and not the more obvious pick in Francesco Laporta who finished 7^th last week to ensure that his chance was telegraphed to all. Instead I’m backing Mike Lorenzo-Vera at a juicy 3-figure price now that he’s back in the desert where he does much of his best work.

Working out exemptions for next season given the Covid-related extensions and varying tiers of tournament stature on the European Tour is a minefield, however with a Tour maiden like Lorenzo-Vera, the equation should be quite simple – top 122 in the Race to Dubai or face the re-ranked ‘safety net’ for next season, which will undoubtedly see some limitation on where and when he gets to play. At 148^th in the rankings, any positive strides he can make this week have to be taken.

8^th heading into Sunday at Rolex Series level in Abu Dhabi to start the year promised so much, however a final round 76 put paid to that dream and from there 2021 has been pretty poor for Mike, as is evidenced by his R2D position. The odd flashes of form including a 65 to Open the Gran Canaria Open and a 64 to close the British Masters have been too few and between, however as the season has meandered towards its conclusion, so the Frenchman has hinted at a little more form at times.

17^th at the Spanish Open saw Lorenzo-Vera record 4 rounds in the 60s for the first time in 2021 with a clean sweep of positive Strokes Gained figures, and he followed that up with 25^th at Valderrama where his biggest asset, his putter, was working nicely once again.

Narrow missed cuts in Mallorca and Portugal since have kept a lid on his price despite last year’s 2^nd place finish here, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him turn those recent finishes on their head now that he’s back in a part of the world that he clearly enjoys. 10^th, 4^th and 2^nd in Qatar from his last 4 attempts; 8^th at last year’s Dubai Desert Classic followed up his 3^rd on the Earth Course here at Jumeirah the autumn before, and he has the game to add to that list of fine desert efforts here this week. RESULT: T44