Paul Williams

Paul Williams' BMW International Open Tips 2025

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After tackling yet another course new to the DP World Tour last week, we move on to a more familiar challenge this week as the BMW International Open returns to the Golfclub München Eichenried in Germany once again. This event has hopped between here and another track in Cologne, so please be careful when reviewing the history stats as 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018 events were held on the other course in the rotation.

Patrick Reed heads the betting this week at a general 12/1, arriving fresh from Dallas where he won in a play-off on the LIV Tour on Sunday. David Puig (16/1) and Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (18/1) follow in the betting before we find another LIV visitor in the shape of Sergio Garcia alongside perennial DP World Tour betting favourite Jordan Smith.

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Course Overview. At 7,354 yards for its par of 72, the length of this course is no problem for the modern professional, with 4 mid-range par-5s and couple of potentially driveable par-4s offering scoring opportunities. With generous fairways, the course is set up for attacking golf.

Historically the greens here had been tired, slow Bentgrass mixed with Poa Annua, however the putting surfaces were overhauled before the 2019 renewal and re-laid with Creeping Bentgrass; they’ve bedded in nicely now and offer excellent chances to those who can dial in their irons.

History has proven that many types of players with different styles have succeeded here – it could be either a high GIR player who putts well, or someone in good putting

form who finds more greens than normal who prevails. Either way, birdies and low scoring are the order of the day, particularly if rain does soften up the putting surfaces before or during the event.

bmw international open tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s BMW International Open that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.

As per the notes above, this week’s venue played host to the event from 2002-11 in this week’s data, plus 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2021-2024: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2024: Ewen Ferguson, 45/1; 2023: Thriston Lawrence, 100/1; 2022: Haotong Li, 66/1; 2021: Viktor Hovland, 13/2; 2019: Andrea Pavan, 100/1; 2018: Matt Wallace, 40/1; 2017: Andres Romero, 300/1; 2016: Henrik Stenson, 10/1; 2015: Pablo Larrazabal, 60/1; 2014: Fabrizio Zanotti, 80/1; 2013: Ernie Els, 22/1; 2012: Danny Willett, 90/1; 2011: Pablo Larrazabal, 45/1; 2010: David Horsey, 150/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

Recent hot and sunny weather is forecast to continue through to the start of the event before conditions break down from later Thursday onwards with thunderstorms and temperatures dropping from 90 to 70 Fahrenheit. The weekend should see a return to dry, warm and sunny conditions with a soft, scoreable track quite likely. Wind will be light at 5-10mph throughout.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors.

Analysing the final stats of the last 11 winners here on this track gives us a little more insight into the task at hand:

  • 2024, Ewen Ferguson (-18). 292.8 yards, 64.3% fairways (8th), 76.4% greens in regulation (7th), 70.6% scrambling (17th), 1.71 putts per GIR (13th).
  • 2023, Thriston Lawrence (-13). 307.1 yards, 42.9% fairways (46th), 63.9% greens in regulation (35th), 65.4% scrambling (23rd), 1.65 putts per GIR (4th).
  • 2022, Haotong Li (-22). 295.1 yards, 55.4% fairways (42nd), 75.0% greens in regulation (14th), 55.6% scrambling (49th), 1.57 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2021, Viktor Hovland (-19). 309.9 yards, 60.7% fairways (19th), 73.6% greens in regulation (10th), 73.7% scrambling (7th), 1.63 putts per GIR (4th).
  • 2019, Andrea Pavan (-15). 300.1 yards, 51.8% fairways (44th), 79.2% greens in regulation (2nd), 80.0% scrambling (3rd), 1.75 putts per GIR (38th).
  • 2015, Pablo Larrazabal (-17). 281.8 yards, 66.1% fairways (22nd), 68.1% greens in regulation (33rd), 78.3% scrambling (5th), 1.73 putts per GIR (27th).
  • 2013, Ernie Els (-18). 295.9 yards, 55.4% fairways (50th), 88.9% greens in regulation (1st), 62.5% scrambling (18th), 1.78 putts per GIR (51st).
  • 2011, Pablo Larrazabal (-16). 280.3 yards, 76.8% fairways (2nd), 84.7% greens in regulation (2nd), 63.6% scrambling (25th), 1.75 putts per GIR (36th).
  • 2010, David Horsey (-18). 268.8 yards, 76.8% fairways (7th), 72.2% greens in regulation (34th), 75.0% scrambling (6th), 1.67 putts per GIR (13th).
  • 2009, Nick Dougherty (-22). 283.3 yards, 66.1% fairways (53rd), 76.4% greens in regulation (32nd), 64.7% scrambling (27th), 1.58 putts per GIR (3rd).
  • 2008, Martin Kaymer (-15). 293.1 yards, 60.7% fairways (45th), 86.1% greens in regulation (1st), 80% scrambling (1st), 1.77 putts per GIR (56th).

No stats were captured by the European Tour for 2017 winner Andres Romero.

Despite the course seemingly setting up nicely for the longer hitters with 4 gettable par-5s and a couple of very short par-4s, length off the tee hasn’t been the overriding factor in the winners listed here.

Scoring tends to be quite low here with 15- to 22-under the winning totals from 2008 until last year, although a bit of wind in 2023 coupled with some tough pin positions resulted in 13-under being good enough for Thriston Lawrence.

Par-5 Scoring has been increasingly important since the event returned here in 2021, having not been such a pivotal factor prior to that. Viktor Hovland was 11-under for the long holes on his way to victory back in 2021, with runner-up Martin Kaymer 13-under; similarly Haotong Li and play-off loser Thomas Pieters were 12- and 11-under on the Par-5s respectively in 2022. Those weren’t the best scores though on that count, with 3rd place Ryan Fox shooting a huge 17-under for the long holes.

Even with the tougher scoring in 2023, eventual winner Thriston Lawrence accumulated 11 of his 13-under total on the Par-5s.Adrian Meronk, who finished in a tie for 3rd, birdied 14 of his 16 attempts at the long holes 2 years ago. Last year was a similar story too, with eventual winner Ewen Ferguson finishing 9-under for the Par-5s with the two runners up, David Micheluzzi and Jordan Smith, both shooting 12-under.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, all 5 winners had solid SG Approach numbers and each were within the top 15 for SG Tee to Green and top 12 for SG Putting.

The most consistent stat though if those who finished just short of the eventual winners are considered is undoubtedly SG Tee to Green, with 4 of the top 5 last year ranking inside the top 8 on the week:

  • 2024, Ewen Ferguson: T: 31st; A: 2nd; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 29th; P: 10th
  • 2023, Thriston Lawrence: T: 27th; A: 14th; T2G: 6th; ATG: 7th; P: 10th
  • 2022, Haotong Li: T: 13th; A: 12th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 6th; P: 12th
  • 2021, Viktor Hovland: T: 12th; A: 23rd; T2G: 15th; ATG: 54th; P: 1st
  • 2019, Andrea Pavan: T: 40th; A: 11th, T2G: 12th, ATG: 10th; P: 7th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: Taking results at this venue in isolation, current form of our eventual winners here has been decidedly mixed of late.

Ewen Ferguson was a little more gettable than some 12 moths ago, however 2023 winner Thriston Lawrence is a case in point having not recorded a top 10 all season before his win here, arriving off the back of incoming form of MC/62/MC/MC. 100/1 was the reward for those who could look past the raw numbers.

Andres Romero is another who would have bamboozled most punters as he hadn’t made a cut all year until the point that he won here in 2017, and at 300/1 it would have been an inspired choice to have plucked him out of the field as the eventual winner pre-event.

Prior to Romero’s success, Larrazabal in 2015 had gone off the boil a little although he’d finished 3rd in Morocco earlier in the year. Els came straight here from Merion where he’d finished 4th the week before, plus he’d finished 6th at Wentworth and 2nd in Indonesia in recent times so was in decent nick.

Larrazabal (2011) had finished 11th at the Italian Open a fortnight before, plus had recent contending performances including 4th in Wales and 3rd in Spain. Horsey had finished 2nd in the Italian Open a month before, Dougherty was 4th in the Irish Open the previous month and Kaymer had produced a couple of top 10s in his previous 5 events, plus had won earlier in the season in the Middle East.

In 2019, eventual winner Andrea Pavan arrived after 3 weeks off having missed his last cut at the Belgian Knockout. Prior to that his form had been solid if unspectacular with 4 finishes inside the top-27 on his previous 5 starts.

2021 favourite Viktor Hovland had withdrawn from the US Open after getting sand in his eye in an opening round of 74; prior to that, a pair of 3rd place finishes at the PGA Tour’s Valspar Championship and Wells Fargo Championship suggested he was in decent form overall:

2022 winner Haotong Li  – who we were on at 66/1 – had shown some improved form in the 6 months or so prior to his win, finishing 2nd at the China Open, 3rd in Ras al Khaimah and 6th at the ISPS Handa Championship in Spain before recording a top 20 on his last start on German soil:

  • 2024, Ewen Ferguson: MC/23/9/7/20/23/11/47/60/WD/27/29
  • 2023, Thriston Lawrence: 42/MC/38/MC/14/52/28/32/MC/62/MC/MC
  • 2022, Haotong Li: 2/12/MC/32/3/33/MC/6/26/MC/37/18
  • 2021, Viktor Hovland: 6/5/2/49/MC/42/21/3/3/30/47/WD
  • 2019, Andrea Pavan: MC/MC/34/31/MC/60/27/21/MC/15/25/MC
  • 2017, Andres Romero: 67/MC/MC/MC/58/18/24/27/MC/MC/MC/MC
  • 2015, Pablo Larrazabal: 33/20/20/3/22/MC/49/MC/MC/43
  • 2013, Ernie Els: MC/14/13/MC/15/2/MC/6/37/4
  • 2011, Pablo Larrazabal: MC/18/44/30/10/3/49/MC/4/11
  • 2010, David Horsey: 11/60/29/MC/42/46/2/MC/MC/MC
  • 2009: Nick Dougherty: 14/MC/47/MC/48/31/4/13/MC/37
  • 2008: Martin Kaymer: 33/MC/57/39/MC/7/10/16/21/53

Course Form (back to 2008): There’s a real mix of course experience from our winners here in Munich, ranging from multiple winner Pablo Larrazabal – who’d also finished 3rd before his first win – to Viktor Hovland, Haotong Li and Ewen Ferguson who have won three of the last four renewals on debut:

  • 2024, Ewen Ferguson: Debut
  • 2023, Thriston Lawrence: 36
  • 2022, Haotong Li: Debut
  • 2021, Viktor Hovland: Debut
  • 2019, Andrea Pavan: MC
  • 2017, Andres Romero: 28/22
  • 2015, Pablo Larrazabal: 61/MC/3/1/MC
  • 2013, Ernie Els: 26/5/17/7/MC
  • 2011, Pablo Larrazabal: 61/MC/3
  • 2010, David Horsey: Debut
  • 2009: Nick Dougherty: 46/24/MC/50/30/MC/26
  • 2008: Martin Kaymer: 58/MC/MC

My Final BMW International Open Tips Are As Follows:

Eugenio Chacarra 2pts EW 40/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

An injection of quality at the top of the betting in the form of Patrick Reed, David Puig, Rasmus Neergaard Peterson and Sergio Garcia gives this week’s event a different look to the more regular markets we see at this level, however that doesn’t automatically mean that one of that quartet will win, and for me that makes the price on offer for Eugenio Chacarra and a couple of other recent winners at DP World Tour level all the more appealing.

I’m of the opinion that it won’t be long before the ambitious Spaniard is plying his trade on the PGA Tour, a stated objective of his now and one that will become a reality at the end of this season if he can maintain or indeed improve his current position of 15th on the Race to Dubai – that’s currently good enough for the 9th of 10 PGA Tour cards.

The 25 year-old is seeing most courses for the first time since his departure from LIV, however given that three of the last four winners here were course debutants that seems less of an issue this week, and we don’t need to look too far in the past to find evidence that he can master new venues quickly with him having won the Indian Open at the end of March on his first attempt.

4th and 11th in China followed that breakthrough win, and although his form dipped a little after that he was back in the groove last week in Italy, progressing to 2nd place after 54 holes after a slow start to the event before eventually finishing in a tie for 7th. Perhaps he needed the break after his win – if so then he could be a serious threat this week.

2nd for SG Approach and 9th for SG Tee to Green for the season to date is impressive, as is 18th for SG Putting given those long game rankings, however it was his SG Off the Tee game which stood out as he topped that metric last week in Italy. If he gets even close to putting that all together here this week then he’ll be hard to beat.

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Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 1.5pts EW 55/1 (5EW, 1/4) with Betfred

We have to go all the way back to Martin Kaymer in 2008 to find the last – and only – home-grown winner of the BMW International Open, however if anyone’s likely to buck that trend this year then it’s Nicolai Von Dellingshausen in my view.

After a fairly humdrum start to 2025 where missed cuts were more prevalent than paying weekends, the 32 year-old burst into form at the Austrian Open a month ago, putting brilliantly on his was to a 2-stroke victory over Kristoffer Reitan and Marcel Schneider, and he’s shown little sign of slowing up since. 7th at the KLM was an admirable effort immediately after his breakthrough win, and he was straight back in the saddle last week after a fortnight off, finishing 5th in Italy as he continued his rise up the Race to Dubai rankings where he now sits 17th and just a place away from the tenth and final PGA Tour card for next season.

Aside from the clear motivational aspects of winning on home soil whilst also edging closer to a dream season in the United States, there’s evidence from his early career that once top form has been found then he can maintain it for a prolonged period of time. 2017 form on the Pro Golf Tour might seem a little tenuous, however between April and August that year he won three times and racked up a further four top-4 finishes, plus he made his debut here in Munich during that stretch, finishing a creditable 26th. He’s since gone on to record a best finish of 5th around these parts in 2022.

Statistically he’s hampered by his early-season form, however he’s been solid in all aspects with the slight exception of SG Off the Tee since finding his form recently, however the more forgiving nature of this course should help in that respect.

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Kristoffer Reitan 1.5pts EW 66/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

In an event where there’s a strong suggestion that the weekend could present the players with a soft, scoreable track which will require some seriously low scoring, siding with Kristoffer Reitan who’s shown himself as being more than competent in that respect of late makes a lot of sense to me.

The Norwegian grabbed his first professional win in some style at last year’s Challenge Tour Grand Final, shooting 23-under to finish ahead of the likes of Angel Ayora and Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen to wrap up his playing privileges for 2025 at the upper level.

Having shown some promise in the Middle East to start the season, the 27 year-old went close at the Hainan Classic, recording a weekend 66/67 to jump from 27th to 2nd place overall. He went one better a couple of starts later, closing the Soudal Open with a sublime round of 62 to capture his maiden title and he almost repeated the feat the week after, shooting 60 on the final day to eventually finish 2nd to Nicolai Von Dellingshausen who did just enough to keep his nose ahead. With rain expected on Friday before a calm weekend, perhaps he can produce more of his low-scoring heroics for us here in Munich.

A missed cut here in 2019 came in a rookie season littered with weekends off so I’m not putting any credence in that result, instead I‘m happy to take a chance on a player who returned to work after a 3-week break with a solid if unspectacular 46th last week in Italy, heading to what should be an altogether more appealing test this week as he looks to bolster his 7th place position on the Race to Dubai.

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Andreas Halvorsen 1pt EW 170/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Finally, with Norwegian golf in the ascendancy, I’ll take a chance on Andreas Halvorsen to be the latest of his countrymen to throw his hat into the ring. We know all about Viktor Hovland of course who’s a previous FedEx Cup Champion as well as a course and event winner here, and Kristoffer Reitan who I covered off above, however Halvorsen is more of an unknown quantity right now.

Twice a winner on the Nordic circuit in 2023, the 28 year-old got his Challenge Tour breakthrough in May last year, winning the Danish Golf Challenge on just his fifth start at that level in impressive front-running style, recording 3 straight rounds of 66 before running out a 3-stroke winner with a closing 71.

5th at the Mauritius Open and 6th at the Indian Open are Halvorsen’s best efforts at DP World Tour level so far this season, however it’s his 16th place finish last week in Italy which intrigues me the most. 2nd to halfway last week was the exact same spot he found himself in the event before his win in Denmark last year before fading to similar finishing positions both times. Perhaps, just perhaps, he’s the kind of player who needs a taste of contention before sealing the deal on his next outing.

5th for Driving Accuracy last week combined with 18th for GIR suggests that the key components of his long game are in order right now, and 2nd for SG Putting on the week should give him confidence coming into this week in an event where debutants have thrived of late.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:50BST 30.6.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.