Paul Williams

Paul Williams' BMW PGA Championship Tips 2021

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A late sponsor’s invite for Nicolai Hojgaard frustrated many punters last week as the 20 year-old took full advantage of his addition to the field in Italy and made it back-to-back wins for the talented Danish twins after Rasmus picked up the spoils at Crans the week before.

From my perspective, Daniel van Tonder’s Sunday implosion was painful to see as the South African shot the worst round of the day when anything under par would have seen him force a play-off at the very worse.

On to this week we go then to the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth which is one of the highlights of the golfing calendar for me, and our annual return to the famous Surrey parkland course sees a strong field assemble as Ryder Cup qualification reaches its climax.

Viktor Hovland ventures over to the European Tour this week as he prepares for his Ryder Cup debut and the Norwegian heads the betting at a best priced 10/1 at the time of writing, having finished 11th here on debut 2 years ago. Defending champion Tyrrell Hatton and former Open Champion Shane Lowry follow at around 16/1 and 18/1 respectively, before we find the likes of Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Alex Noren and Billy Horschel all at around 25/1 or shorter.

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West Course, Wentworth, Surrey, England. Designer: Harry Colt, 1926 with Els re-design 2009/2016; Course Type: Classical; Par: 72; Length: 7,267 yards; Fairways: Bentgrass, Fescue, Poa Annua; Rough: Rye, Fescue; Greens: Creeping Bentgrass.

Course Overview. A week after Chris Wood’s victory here in 2016, Wentworth began its second major transformation under the guidance of Ernie Els. This time, with the help of European Golf Design, the brief was to return the course back closer to the original vision conceived by Harry Colt but with consideration for how golf has developed in modern times. Whereas the changes implemented by Els and his team back in 2009, with a few subsequent revisions, toughened the track up with a series of relatively severe features, these latest changes softened the course to a degree, particularly on and around the greens.

The layout and routing wasn’t altered during the 2016 renovations, however in total 29 bunkers were removed from the track completely and all remaining bunkers were reconstructed and generally softened to make the course more playable. A sub-air system, as per Augusta National, was installed on all 18 greens and the putting surfaces were stripped and re-laid with creeping bentgrass to replace the tired and inconsistent Bent/Poa mix.

The 3rd, 4th, 5th, 12th and 15th greens were rebuilt to a degree whereas the 8th, 11th, 14th and 16th were completely overhauled in a bid to make the surfaces more amenable. The entrances to a number of greens were opened too as part of the changes to encourage more shot-making options and to make them more accessible from the ground, in turn allowing balls to roll onto the greens as per Colt’s original concept here.

bmw pga championship tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s BMW PGA Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2020: Tyrrell Hatton, 16/1; 2019: Danny Willett, 66/1; 2018: Francesco Molinari, 22/1; 2017: Alex Noren, 20/1; 2016: Chris Wood, 66/1; 2015: Byeong-Hun An, 100/1; 2014: Rory McIlroy, 14/1; 2013: Matteo Manassero, 66/1; 2012: Luke Donald, 8/1; 2011: Luke Donald, 15/2; 2010: Simon Khan, 200/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

The hot conditions from early in the week in the south of England will have dissipated by the time play starts on Thursday, however it will still be pleasant enough for early September with temperatures reaching the low 70s Fahrenheit each afternoon. Sunny spells and light winds of between 5-10mph should encourage relatively low scoring, with the odd light shower not likely to amount to much.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors.

Analysing the final stats of the last 11 winners here since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2020, Tyrrell Hatton (-19). 71.4% fairways (5th), 66.7% greens in regulation (22nd), 83.3% scrambling (1st), 1.67 putts per GIR (14th).
  • 2019, Danny Willett (-20). 64.3% fairways (16th), 76.4% greens in regulation (2nd), 70.6% scrambling (8th), 1.58 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2018, Francesco Molinari (-17). 76.8% fairways (4th), 73.6% greens in regulation (8th), 89.5% scrambling (1st), 1.72 putts per GIR (25th).
  • 2017, Alex Noren (-11). 60.7% fairways (32nd), 62.5% greens in regulation (26th), 70.4% scrambling (4th), 1.64 putts per GIR (9th).
  • 2016, Chris Wood (-9). 69.6% fairways (7th), 73.6% greens in regulation (4th), 52.6% scrambling (18th), 1.70 putts per GIR (13th).
  • 2015, Byeong-Hun An (-21). 62.5% fairways (35th), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), 81.8% scrambling (1st), 1.69 putts per GIR (11th).
  • 2014, Rory McIlroy (-14). 67.9% fairways (30th), 68.1% greens in regulation (22nd), 60.9% scrambling (21st), 1.65 putts per GIR (8th).
  • 2013, Matteo Manassero (-10). 60.7% fairways (47th), 73.6% greens in regulation (4th), 63.2% scrambling (14th), 1.75 putts per GIR (35th).
  • 2012, Luke Donald (-15). 58.9% fairways (40th), 70.8% greens in regulation (10th), 66.7% scrambling (2nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2011, Luke Donald (-6). 67.9% fairways (23rd), 70.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 57.1% scrambling (25th), 1.70 putts per GIR (4th).
  • 2010, Simon Khan (-6). 87.5% fairways (1st), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 53.8% scrambling (34th), 1.81 putts per GIR (54th).

Hit two thirds of fairways, three quarters of greens and scramble and putt in the top dozen or so and you’ll be there or thereabouts is pretty much how recent winners since the original Els re-design have got the job done. Even when weather conditions have led to higher or lower scores, it’s still tended to be players who’ve done sufficiently well in all aspects of their game who’ve prevailed here.

Traditionally this has been a strong all-round test and contenders can’t be lacking in any particular area of their game this week if they want to succeed. 3 of the top-6 finishers last year all ranked 7th or better when it came to GIR on the week and eventual winner Tyrrell Hatton continued the trend we’d seen the previous year when scrambling was a critical factor, as the Englishman ranked 1st for getting up and down at 83.3% over the 4 days.

From a Strokes Gained perspective, SG Tee to Green was the most consistent stat from the top 5 finishers last year with eventual winner Tyrrell Hatton topping that statistic:

  • 1st: Tyrrell Hatton. T: 11th; A: 20th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 2nd; P: 11th
  • 2nd: Victor Perez. T: 17th; A: 7th; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 11th; P: 18th
  • 3rd: Patrick Reed. T: 26th; A: 18th; T2G: 19th; ATG: 19th; P: 2nd
  • 3rd: Andy Sullivan. T: 8th; A: 6th; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 28th; P: 23rd
  • 5th: Ian Poulter. T: 22nd; A: 28th; T2G: 10th; ATG: 7th; P: 6th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: The three short-priced winners (McIlroy and Donald twice) entered the event off the back of some strong form and at least 2 consecutive top 10s immediately prior to victory here. Manassero’s form was less obvious with a couple of top 20s in his previous 4 outings, whereas Simon Khan’s win came from completely off the page as a late sponsor’s invitation. 2015 winner Byeong-Hun An arrived with immediate form of 8/15 and had a further two top-10 finishes to his name for the year to date.

2016 winner Chris Wood had finished 54th in Ireland the week before winning here which was his first event for over a month – 8th at the Dubai Desert Classic had been the Bristolian’s best effort of the year to date. 2017 winner Alex Noren had won 4 times the previous season and although he’d not taken any further silverware in 2017 up to the point of his victory here, he had made the quarter-finals of the WGC Match Play before finishing a creditable 10th at TPC Sawgrass in elite company on his last start.

Francesco Molinari’s form for the season-to-date in 2018 wasn’t anything special, hence the 22/1 price point despite his strong course form. 2 top-20s in his previous 5 starts hinted at some developing form though and the rest is history as he won the Quicken Loans National and then the Open Championship over his next few starts after proving victorious here.

2019 winner Danny Willett frustrated many punters having been a well-backed fancy on his previous start at Crans-sur-Sierre where he missed the cut. Prior to that though, he’d finished 6th at the Open Championship and produced 2 strong rounds in decent company at The Northern Trust in the PGA Tour Playoffs so, Crans aside, the signs were there.

Last year’s winner Tyrrell Hatton made it a hat-trick of victors here coming off the back of a missed cut, having finished 6 shots adrift of the line at the US Open on his previous start. 5th in terms of 72-hole scoring at the Tour Championship prior to that was strong form though in elite PGA Tour company, having already converted State-side earlier in the year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

  • 2020, Tyrrell Hatton: 1/46/6/1/3/4/69/MC/25/16/5/MC
  • 2019, Danny Willett: MC/MC/MC/41/27/8/12/MC/6/48/24/MC
  • 2018, Francesco Molinari: 17/8/45/40/MC/25/26/17/20/49/16/MC
  • 2017, Alex Noren: 12/1/23/13/21/MC/55/49/5/MC/31/10
  • 2016, Chris Wood: MC/MC/8/MC/42/20/61/42/34/54
  • 2015, Byeong-Hun An: 12/5/13/7/45/59/34/MC/8/15
  • 2014, Rory McIlroy: 2/9/17/2/25/7/8/8/6
  • 2013, Matteo Manassero: 9/23/22/12/33/29/23/17/MC/16/68
  • 2012, Luke Donald: 48/56/33/6/1/32/37/3/6
  • 2011, Luke Donald: MC/1/10/6/4/2/8/4/2
  • 2010, Simon Khan: MC/65/57/56/61/MC/69/MC/27

Course Form: Given his recent form, the 100/1 about Benny An in 2015 was best explained by the fact that it was his Wentworth debut and, at the time, he was still a European Tour maiden.

Until then, and including Tyrrell Hatton, Danny Willett, Francesco Molinari and Alex Noren from the past 4 renewals, recent winners here had produced a top-10 or better over the West Course in either its previous or current guise, suggesting that positive experience of this part of Surrey in some shape or form was pretty critical.

Wentworth hadn’t been Rory McIlroy’s favourite stomping ground prior to victory in 2014, however he had nevertheless produced a top-5 on his second attempt in 2009; Matteo Manassero had finished 7th two years prior to victory which followed his 17th place finish on debut; Luke Donald had finished 3rd in 2008 and 2nd in 2010 prior to his back-to-back wins in 2011 and 2012; even ‘surprise’ 2010 winner Simon Khan had previously finished 2nd at Wentworth 4 years previously, so his ability to play the course shouldn’t have been a total shock – which he again proved in 2013 when making the play-off.

Event form prior to winning since 2010 as follows:

  • 2020, Tyrrell Hatton: 38/46/7/30/MC/MC
  • 2019, Danny Willett: 5/MC/43/32/63/38/3/58/MC
  • 2018, Francesco Molinari: 30/MC/35/17/50/7/9/7/5/55/2
  • 2017, Alex Noren: MC/6/21/74/MC/21/32/WD/8/43
  • 2016, Chris Wood: 6/MC/49/WD/21/4
  • 2015, Byeong-Hun An: Debut
  • 2014, Rory McIlroy: MC/5/48/24/MC/MC
  • 2013, Matteo Manassero: 17/7/43
  • 2012, Luke Donald: 18/25/7/3/35/2/1
  • 2011, Luke Donald: 18/25/7/3/35/2
  • 2010, Simon Khan: 24/MC/2/24/10/MC

This classical, tree-lined track is at its most challenging when the wind blows – even a 10-15 mph breeze can play havoc with club selection as it whistles around the treetops, however this week doesn’t look likely to cause the players too many problems and another week where scoring approaches 20-under is possible.

For me this is a combination of solid all-round play, bogey avoidance and some positive course experience where the eventual winner is likely to have an extra touch of class about him.

All things considered, my selections are as follows:

Alexander Noren 2.5pts EW 25/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Paddy Power

The calculators are out and the permutations are complex when it comes to who needs to do what to ensure an automatic spot for the Ryder Cup. With Rory McIlroy not playing, the 4th and final spot on the European Points list is up for grabs which would switch the Northern Irishman’s qualification to World Points instead, which also then has further repercussions.

It’s all going to get pretty technical, however for Alex Noren this week is far more straightforward as even a captain’s pick now is fairly unlikely, especially if Shane Lowry gets displaced from the final automatic qualifying spot this week which could force Harrington’s hand. It could have been different of course had the Swede made the Tour Championship and put in a strong performance, however that’s fairly academic now I suspect.

Plying his trade on the PGA Tour nowadays has kept Alex out of the European limelight to a certain degree, as had his results which saw no top-10 finishes despite some fairly consistent performances in the early part of the year. Perhaps that’s ultimately hampered his chances of making the team, however with the pressure pretty much off I wonder if he’ll express himself this week with a ‘look what you’re missing’ message if he wins here.

4th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic at the start of July was an improvement over his early season form and 16th at the Olympics was noteworthy as he topped both Driving Accuracy and GIR stats for the week whilst ranking 4th for SG Off the Tee. 4th at the first PlayOff event, the Northern Trust, saw the 39 year-old’s putter heat up as he led the field for SG Putting, and 9th at the BMW Championship – although ultimately a disappointment as it wasn’t quite good enough for him to make it to East Lake – still saw him rank 2nd for GIR.

A trending long game and a putter that’s been hot recently could be a potent combination, as Alex returns to the scene of his biggest career victory when he scythed his way through the field with a Sunday 62 here back in 2017 to win by 2 strokes. There have been no repeat winners here at Wentworth since Luke Donald went back-to-back in 2011 and 2012, however historically we’ve seen the likes of Anders Hansen, Colin Montgomerie, Ian Woosnam and Bernhard Langer all winning more than once over the West Course and Noren adding his name to the list in the track’s current guise wouldn’t be a surprise.

The final piece of the jigsaw for me is that recent winners have all scrambled very well and Noren’s short game has looked excellent for the most part of late, scrambling at over 70% on each of his last 3 starts and ranking inside the top-15 of that stat each time in excellent quality fields. RESULT: T27

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Sam Horsfield 1pt EW 70/1 (6EW, 1/4) with bet365

Of the other players near the top of the betting, Shane Lowry was the closest consideration for me on a course that he loves. It’s less than a week though since he welcomed daughter Ivy into the world and as much as I believe that life events can have a bearing on a player’s performance, it may be a little early to see that translated into another trophy for the Irishman. Instead, I’ll look a little further down the list this week.

Fridays have tended to be the problem of late for Sam Horsfield who’s been frustrating his backers at relatively short prices by failing to capitalise on some good starts, however with his price drifting out now given the quality around him this week, I’m happy to take the chance that he can put that right.

Averaging 73.6 and failing to break 70 on his last 10 attempts at round 2 is baffling given that he’s twice led after day 1 in that stretch and sat inside the top-5 on a further 3 occasions, however whether it’s a strange coincidence or something that he’s battling with, he’s got the game to put that right this week on a track that suits his long game prowess.

37th for SG Off the Tee, 11th for SG Tee to Green and 2nd for SG Approach for the season date is a potent combination at Wentworth and if he can compliment that with a decent enough performance on and around the greens then he could go close here. 2nd for Scrambling as recently as the Czech Masters last month is positive and a field-leading putting performance in Kenya on the similar-aged Bentgrass greens puts a tick in that box.

Last year’s missed cut here can perhaps be explained by the fact that he’d won twice in quick succession a few weeks before on English and Welsh soil so can be excused for having taken his foot off the accelerator; 15th on debut here in 2018 is far more indicative of what he’s capable of in my view as he sat in 3rd place heading into Sunday as a Tour rookie. 3 years on and I suspect he’ll make a better fist of it on Sunday should he find himself in a similar position once again. RESULT: T35

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Richard Bland 1pt EW 70/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

If we were to go back to the very start of Ryder Cup qualification then few would have speculated that Richard Bland would have a mathematical chance of making the team automatically with victory at the campaign-ending BMW PGA Championship, however that’s where we are.

Yes, the stars need to align and nothing less than a win would suffice, however the very fact that the 48 year-old is in the conversation is impressive enough. Truth is though, he’s in this position on merit. Having drifted outside the OWGR top 1,000 and gone back to the Challenge Tour in 2019, Bland racked up 4 runner-up finishes in the space of 10 weeks and ultimately found himself back on the main Tour in 2020’s stop-start season.

7th at the Joburg Open and 2nd at Leopard Creek at the back end of the year showed increasing promise, however he finally broke through at the 478th time of asking at The Belfry, fending off Guido Migliozzi in a play-off to secure an emotional victory.

Many may have expected that to be the end of the story, however the Southampton resident clearly has different ideas. 3rd in Denmark, 4th in Ireland, 3rd at the Cazoo Classic in England and 5th in Italy last week have all followed that breakthrough success and Richard now finds himself at a career-high of 90th in the world rankings and with a game that’s seemingly still trending forwards.

6th for SG Approach at the Scottish Open, 3rd on the same count at the Cazoo Classic and 2nd last week is positive for a track like Wentworth, as is 18th, 2nd and 7th for SG Tee to Green over the same 3 events. 5th for Scrambling for the season to date is another box ticked and with 11 career starts here at Wentworth and a best finish of 5th back in 2006, he’s certainly got more experience here than most. RESULT: T57

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Masahiro Kawamura 1pt EW 90/1 (6EW, 1/4) with bet365

Marcus Armitage was tempting at triple figures, despite this being his competitive debut around these parts, as was Edoardo Molinari whose long game is looking strong at present, just let down by some strange putting at times. At a slightly shorter price though I’m back Masahiro Kawamura who continues to impress as he looks to break through at European Tour level.

It’s been nearly 8 years since the Japanese golfer secured his one and only win on the Asian Tour/Japan Tour’s co-sanctioned Asia-Pacific Panasonic Open as a 20 year-old, and although he’s not pushed on as rapidly as some may have expected after that early success in his career, there are signs that he may not be far away from building on that.

2nd to Stephen Gallacher at the Indian Open in 2019 was followed up with a 6th place finish in Morocco on his next start as the 28 year-old increasingly got to grips with golf at European Tour level. 5th in Portugal and another runner-up finish in Cyprus followed last year as he finished the year off strongly again and there’s every sign that he could produce more late-season results this year from his recent outings.

5th at the Cazoo Open, 3rd at Galgorm Castle and 5th last week in Italy have seen Kawamura move inside the OWGR top 150 for just the second time in his career and that rash of form has been accompanied by some strong long-game figures. 1st for SG Off the Tee at the Hero Open alongside 3rd for both SG Approach and SG Tee to Green at the Cazoo Open have been the highlights, and he showed good numbers again last week in Italy, ranking inside the top-11 of all 3 of those stats.

20th here at Wentworth last year was an encouraging improvement over his missed cut 6 years prior to that, and at 10th heading into Sunday he had chances to reward each-way backers – should he find himself in a similar position this week there’s hope that he can improve on his position given what we’ve seen recently. RESULT: T17

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Fabrizio Zanotti 0.5pt EW 200/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Finally I’m taking a punt on Fabrizio Zanotti whose stats rather than his headline finishes have caught the eye recently.

The 2-time European Tour winner is an accurate type generally and field-leading Driving Accuracy stats on 3 of his last 12 outings, plus another 3 inside the top 10, would suggest that the driver’s working nicely at present. 3 top-5 efforts in terms of GIR from his last 7 starts would also suggest that his irons aren’t in bad shape either and that translated to 4 top-8 rankings for SG Approach over those same 7 outings.

2 missed cuts from 14 starts this season shows a good level of consistency, however just 1 top-10 finish goes some way to explaining his price here this week. That season’s best effort came at Rolex Series level though in Abu Dhabi and at his best the Paraguayan can feature when the right course and his form coincides.

7th here at Wentworth in 2016 rates as the 38 year-old’s best finish in Surrey, however 3rd after 54 holes in 2011, 5th after 36 in 2014 and 9th after 36 more recently in 2018 suggests he gets on well with the layout here. 2nd behind Matt Fitzpatrick at Woburn in 2015 is further strong tree-lined form and despite the dismissive price here, Zanotti has the ability to reward each-way backers given the terms on offer this week. RESULT: T20

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 18:20BST 6.9.21 but naturally subject to fluctuation.