Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford's Charles Schwab Challenge Tips 2026

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Congratulations if you were on-board Wyndham Clark at Monday best prices of 50/1 with BetMGM. Wyndham gained the mere matter of 12.573 strokes with the flat stick to eventually putt Si Woo Kim and Scottie Scheffler into submission. Despite having Taylor Moore (100/1) and Stephan Jaeger (55/1) there or thereabouts throughout, I ended up with a total loss on the week.

We move westward across the metroplex from Dallas to Fort Worth, Texas for the final leg of the Texas Swing. The Charles Schwab Challenge takes place at the classical Colonial Country Club and is well-respected on the PGA Tour. Defending champion Ben Griffin, Ludvig Aberg, Russell Henley, Rickie Fowler, Robert MacIntyre, J.J. Spaun and Hideki Matsuyama headline.

Before we go into the detail surrounding the Charles Schwab Challenge, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,600 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

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You can read Liam Williams’ Power Rankings for the Charles Schwab Challenge at bet365 News.

Course Guide: Colonial CC, or “Hogan’s Alley” as it’s known, sits in the same classical course category as Riviera Country Club, Augusta National and Muirfield Village, although it’s a far tighter affair from tee to green than most. At a freshly extended 7,289 yards, this Bredemus and Maxwell-designed Par 70 is a parkland classic and it was significantly enhanced in 2023 by a Gil Hanse inspired restoration, which we saw for the first time in 2024.

Colonial will be only the third tournament on pure Bentgrass greens of 2026 on the PGA Tour. Naturally now as the PGA Tour moves into summer, Bentgrass-base – often mixed with Poa Annua – putting surfaces will be more regularly seen from week to week.

Colonial Country Club, Fort Worth, Texas: Designer: Bredemus/Maxwell 1936 with 2023 Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner renovation; Course Type: Classical, Technical, Medium Length, Texas; Par: 70; Length: 7,289 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 6; Number of Sand Bunkers: 64; Acres of Fairway: 28; Fairways TifTuf 419 Bermudagrass; Rough: TifTuf 419 Bermudagrass 2.5”; Greens: 5,000 sq.ft average featuring 007XL Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 12ft.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Colonial and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:

  • Colonial: 25-30 yards at 300 yards.
  • TPC Craig Ranch: 25-28 yards.
  • Aronimink: 30 yards.
  • Quail Hollow: 28 yards.
  • Blue Monster, Doral: 25-40 yards.
  • Harbour Town: 22-25 yards.
  • Augusta National: Average 50 yards.
  • Oaks Course: 25-30 yards.
  • Memorial Park: 30–40 yards.
  • Copperhead: Average 20 yards.
  • TPC Sawgrass: Average 28 yards.
  • Bay Hill: Average 30 yards.
  • PGA National: Average 28 yards.
  • Riviera: Average 27 yards.
  • Pebble Beach: Average 30-33 yards. Spyglass Hill: 25-30 yards.
  • TPC Scottsdale: Average 38 yards.
  • Torrey Pines South: Average 24-27 yards. Torrey Pines North: Average 24-27 yards.
  • Pete Dye Stadium: Average 33 yards.

Course Scoring Average & PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:

  • 2025: 70.26 (+0.26), Rank 15 of 50 courses
  • 2024: 70.82 (+0.82), Rank 5 of 51 courses

Designer Links: For research purposes, other Gil Hanse designs (including re-renovations/restorations) include:

  • Aronimink Golf Club – 2019 BMW Championship + 2026 PGA Championship
  • Los Angeles Country Club – 2023 U.S. Open
  • Merion – 2013 U.S. Open
  • Plainfield CC – The Barclays – 2011 & 2015
  • Ridgewood CC – The Barclays / Northern Trust 2010, 2014 & 2018
  • Southern Hills CC – 2022 U.S. Open
  • The Country Club, Brookline – 2022 U.S. Open
  • Trump National Doral – 2014 through 2016 WGC Cadillac Championship + 2026 Cadillac Championship
  • TPC Boston – Deutsche Bank / Dell Technologies Championship through 2018 plus 2020 Northern Trust
  • Winged Foot – 2020 U.S. Open

Course Overview: Colonial provides its winners with a plaid jacket that’s extremely similar to those handed to the champions at Harbour Town. The similarities don’t end there as the two courses share traditional values in the modern world of the PGA Tour. 2024 saw a new Colonial Country Club as Gil Hanse has designed and overseen one of his now famous renovations. For reference we have seen Hanse’s work at Southern Hills, Brookline Country Club, Los Angeles Country Club and Aronimink, with these courses hosting the 2022 and 2026 PGA Championships and the 2022 and 2023 U.S. Opens respectively. PGA Tour pro and Colonial member Ryan Palmer also had input into the course update, which has seen the course go back towards how it was in the 1940s.

In aummary, the course was lengthened by 89 yards and will this week play as a 7,289 yard, Par 70. This renovation began in June 2023 and has included all new grass, irrigation, drainage, subterranean cooling and heating systems for the green complexes, as well as Hanse architectural improvements.

Most greens have now been lowered, and some have shifted slightly back or to either side a few yards. Other significant changes are that barrancas have been incorporated throughout the course. The new barrancas are on holes 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 15, 16, 17, and 18 ― making the most of the existing, natural drainage channels on the property. Also, many of the greenside bunkers at Colonial have been taken out and replaced with grass bunkers. The makeover has cost around $21 million.

Greens remain as Bentgrass and as we have seen across both renewals on the new set-up are firm and reject approach shots across the weekends. Player feedback has been positive, with many commenting that the biggest changes were to the greens.

charles schwab challenge tips

Charles Schwab Challenge Winners: 2025: Ben Griffin (-12); 2024: Davis Riley (-14); 2023: Emiliano Grillo (-8); 2022: Sam Burns (-9); 2021: Jason Kokrak (-14); 2020: Daniel Berger (-15); 2019: Kevin Na (-13); 2018: Justin Rose (-20); 2017: Kevin Kisner (-10); 2016: Jordan Spieth (-17); 2015: Chris Kirk (-12); 2014: Adam Scott (-9); 2013: Boo Weekley (-14); 2012: Zach Johnson (-12); 2011: David Toms (-13); 2010: Zach Johnson (-21).

  • 2025: Ben Griffin 66-6368-71 -12/268 – PM/AM Wave
  • 2024: Davis Riley 66-64-66-70 -14/266 – AM/PM Wave

Prior to Gil Hanse Renovation

  • 2023: Emiliano Grillo 67-65-72-68 -8/272 – PM/AM Wave
  • 2022: Sam Burns 71-68-67-65 -9/271 – AM/PM Wave
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak 65-65-66-70 -14/266 – PM/AM Wave
  • 2020: Daniel Berger 65-67-67-66 -15/265 – AM/PM Wave
  • 2019: Kevin Na 70-62-69-66 -13/267 – PM/AM Wave
  • 2018: Justin Rose 66-64-66-64 -20/260 – PM/AM Wave

OWGR of Charles Schwab Challenge Winners: 2025: B Griffin 52; 2024: Riley 250; 2023: Grillo 80; 2022: Burns 10; 2021: Kokrak 35; 2020: Berger 107; 2019: Na 52; 2018: Rose 5.

Datagolf Ranking Charles Schwab Challenge Winners: 2025: B Griffin 37; 2024: Riley 294; 2023: Grillo 77; Burns 11; 2021: Kokrak 31.

Colonial Cut Line: 2025: Level; 2024: +2.

Lead Score Progression:

  • 2025: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -11; Round 3 -13; Round 4 -12.
  • 2024: Round 1 -5; Round 2 -10; Round 3 -14; Round 4 -14

Path to Victory: Below are end of round positions for Charles Schwab Challenge winners since 2010:

  • 2025 – Ben Griffin: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2024 – Davis Riley: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2023 – Emiliano Grillo: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 4th.
  • 2022 – Sam Burns: Round 1: 57th, Round 2: 40th, Round 3: 21st.
  • 2021 – Jason Kokrak: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.
  • 2020 – Daniel Berger: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 7th, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2019 – Kevin Na: Round 1: 38th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2018 – Justin Rose: Round 1: 8th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2017 – Kevin Kisner: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 4th.
  • 2016 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 9th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2015 – Chris Kirk: Round 1: 26th, Round 2: 15th, Round 3: 4th.
  • 2014 – Adam Scott: Round 1: 64th, Round 2: 36th, Round 3: 11th.
  • 2013 – Boo Weekley: Round 1: 23rd, Round 2: 9th, Round 3: 2nd.
  • 2012 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.
  • 2011 – David Toms: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
  • 2010 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 7th, Round 3: 3rd

Shots From the Lead: Below are Charles Schwab Challenge winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:

  • 2025 – Ben Griffin: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: level.
  • 2024 – Davis Riley: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 2 ahead, Round 3: 4 ahead.
  • 2023 – Emiliano Grillo: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 4 back.
  • 2022 – Sam Burns: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 8 back, Round 3: 7 back.
  • 2021 – Jason Kokrak: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 1 back.
  • 2020 – Daniel Berger: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 2 back.
  • 2019 – Kevin Na: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 2 ahead.
  • 2018 – Justin Rose: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 4 ahead.
  • 2017 – Kevin Kisner: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 3 back.
  • 2016 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
  • 2015 – Chris Kirk: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 7 back, Round 3: 3 back.
  • 2014 – Adam Scott: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 6 back, Round 3: 2 back.
  • 2013 – Boo Weekley: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 1 back.
  • 2012 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 1 ahead, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 1 back.
  • 2011 – David Toms: Round 1: level, Round 2: 7 ahead, Round 3: 1 back.
  • 2010 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 1 back.

Incoming Form of Charles Schwab Challenge winners since 2010:

  • Ben Griffin: 8th PGA/46th Philadelphia CC/MC/Craig Ranch/1st New Orleans.
  • Davis Riley: 66th Myrtle/30th Craig Ranch/28th New Orleans/MC Copperhead.
  • Emiliano Grillo: MC PGA/23rd Quail/5th Mexico/7th Harbour Town.
  • Sam Burns: 20th PGA/MC Craig Ranch/2nd New Orleans/MC Augusta.
  • Jason Kokrak: 49th PGA/13th Copperhead/21st New Orleans /49th Augusta.
  • Daniel Berger: 4th PGA National/5th Pebble/9th TPC Scottsdale/29th PGA West.
  • Kevin Na: MC PGA/38th Trinity Forest/10th Heritage/46th Augusta.
  • Justin Rose: 23rd Sawgrass/19th New Orleans/12th Augusta/52nd Houston.
  • Kevin Kisner: 56th Sawgrass/MC Eagle Point/2nd New Orleans/11th Heritage.
  • Jordan Spieth: 18th TPC4S/MC Sawgrass/2nd Augusta/13th GC of Houston.
  • Chris Kirk: 13th Sawgrass/69th Heritage/33rd Augusta/8th TPC San Antonio.
  • Adam Scott: 38th Sawgrass/14th Augusta/3rd Bay Hill/25th Doral.
  • Boo Weekley: MC TPC4S/48th Sawgrass/58th Quail/6th New Orleans.
  • Zach Johnson: 2nd Sawgrass/69th Quail/2nd Heritage/32nd Augusta.
  • David Toms: 2nd Sawgrass/24th Quail/18th New Orleans/24th Augusta.
  • Zach Johnson: MC San Antonio/22nd Sawgrass/51st Quail/47th Heritage

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are:-1) Alex Smalley; 2) Ben Griffin; 3) Justin Thomas; 4) J.J. Spaun; 5) Hideki Matsuyama; 6) Sungjae Im; 7) Wyndham Clark; 8) Tony Finau; 9) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 10) Sam Ryder.

Charles Schwab Challenge Winners & Prices: 2025: B Griffin 60/1; 2024: Riley 350/1; 2023: Grillo 80/1; 2022: Burns 30/1; 2021: Kokrak 60/1; 2020: Berger 70/1; 2019: Na 70/1; 2018: Rose 20/1; 2017: Kisner 33/1; 2016: Spieth 7/1F; 2015: Kirk 35/1; 2014: Scott 18/1; 2013: Weekley 100/1; 2012: Z Johnson 16/1; 2011: Toms 33/1; 2010: Z Johnson 50/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 116/1; Average: 64/1.

Historical Weather:

  • 2025: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 92. Wind ESE 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 92. Wind SSE 10-15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 96. Wind S 14-18 mph, with gusts to 28 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 96. Wind S 12-16 mph, with gusts to 25 mph.
  • 2024: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with afternoon showers. High of 83. Wind S 10-20 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy with afternoon showers. High of 83. Wind S 10-20 mph. Saturday: Hot and humid conditions with temperatures in the mid-low 90s. Wind S 10-20 mph. Sunday: Sunny and hot. High of 99. Wind SW 10-20 mph.
  • 2023: Thursday: Weather: Partly cloudy. High of 85. Wind ESE 8-13 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 86. Wind ESE 7-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 88. Wind SE 8-13 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 84. Wind S 7-13 mph.
  • 2022: Thursday: Sunny. High of 85. Wind SW 10-15, gusting to 22 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 93. Wind Variable 3-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 97. Wind S 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 96. Wind S 16-22 mph, with gusts to 32 mph.
  • 2021: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 89. Wind S 12-22 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 80. Wind NE 6-12 mph. Due to heavy rain and lightning, the second round was suspended from 1:49 – 4:15 p.m. CT (2 hours, 26 minutes). Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 79. Wind ENE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 78. Wind ESE 10-18 mph.
  • 2020: Thursday: Sunny. High of 93. Wind E 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 95. Wind ESE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 97. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 97. Wind SE 6-12 mph.
  • 2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 89. Wind SSE 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 90. Wind SSE 12-18 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Saturday: Weather: Partly cloudy. High of 90. Wind SSE 7-14 mph, with gusts to 17 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 89. Winds S 10-16 mph, with gusts to 22 mph.
  • 2018: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 92. Wind SSE 6-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 94. Wind SSE 7-13 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 97. Wind SSE 7-14 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 99. Wind ESE 5-10 mph.
  • 2017: Thursday: Sunny with a high of 93. Wind S 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30 mph. Friday: Sunny with a high of 98. Wind SW 15-20 mph, with gusts of 25 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high of 96. Wind SSW 15-20 mph, with gusts of 25 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 82. Wind N 10-15 mph.
  • 2016: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 83. Wind S at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy early turning to partly sunny skies in the afternoon. Warm and humid, with a high of 86. Wind SSE at 10-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy early turning to partly sunny skies in the afternoon. Warm and humid, with a high of 86. Wind SSE at 10-15 mph. Sunday: Due to early morning thunderstorms, the original tee times featuring twosomes off of one tee beginning at 7:30 a.m. were changed to a two-tee start with threesomes at 10:19 a.m. Mostly cloudy. High of 85. Wind SSE at 10-15 mph
  • 2015: Weather: Thursday: Cloudy, but drier in the afternoon, with highs reaching only into the lower 60s. North wind at 10-20 mph. A total of 1.3 inches of rain fell overnight and into the morning. Friday: Overcast, with intermittent rain throughout the day. High of 76, with N wind at 7-12 mph. Saturday: Overcast, with a high of 76. Wind SE at 15-25 mph. Sunday: Due to the likeliness of inclement weather, final-round tee times were between 7-9 a.m. Cloudy with rain most of the day and a high of 79. Wind SSW at 10-20 mph.

Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Fort Worth, Texas is here. Compared to Craig Ranch last week, expect even hotter. High humidity and temperatures searing to 30-34 degrees Celsius (86-93 Fahrenheit) will greet the players – that’s the hottest I have recorded in 2026 to date on the PGA Tour.

Thursday looks calm – lowest scoring likely of the week. In Texas we expect high winds, but this week looks tranquil enough, with nothing stronger than 15mph from the south-west.

246mm of rain since the start of March is pretty high – 17mm over the weekend just gone – and with +55% chance of rain on tournament Wednesday we may see soft conditions in-play on Thursday. However with the temperatures, and if the PGA Tour allow, releasing greens are more than likely over the weekend.

Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Valero Texas Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

  • Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Michael Brennan / Mason Howell; 3) Doug Ghim / Neal Shipley; 5) Robert MacIntyre; 6) Kris Ventura; 7) Ludvig Aberg; 8) Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen; 9) Gary Woodland; 10) Kevin Yu; 11) Michael Thorbjornsen; 12) Keith Mitchell; 13) Alex Smalley; 14) Pierceson Coody / Rasmus Hojgaard / Jimmy Stanger; 17) J.T. Poston; 18) Austin Smotherman / J.J. Spaun; 20) Ryo Hisatsune; 21) Ben Griffin; 22) Sungjae Im / Keita Nakajima; 24) Zach Bauchou / Justin Thomas.
  • Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Eric Cole / J.J. Spaun; 3) Ludvig Aberg; 4) Mark Hubbard; 5) Sam Ryder; 6) Andrew Putnam; 7) Bud Cauley; 8) John Parry / David Skinns; 10) Ryan Gerard / Hideki Matsuyama / Alex Smalley; 13) Rickie Fowler / Danny Walker / Gary Woodland; 16) Andrew Novak; 17) Jordan Smith; 18) Tom Hoge / Marcelo Rozo; 20) Luke Clanton / Ryo Hisatsune / Justin Thomas; 23) Nick Dunlap / Tom Kim; 25) Matt McCarty.
  • Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Mackenzie Hughes; 2) Nick Hardy; 3) Russell Henley; 4) Adrien Dumont de Chassart / Chris Kirk / Sahith Theegala; 7) Tony Finau / Adam Svensson; 9) Matt Kuchar; 10) Hayden Springer; 11) Ben Griffin; 12) Ludvig Aberg / Sungjae Im / Andrew Putnam; 15) Stephan Jaeger; 16) Eric Cole / Austin Eckroat / Mac Meissner; 19) Chandler Phillips / Camilo Villegas; 21) A.J. Ewart; 22) Doug Ghim / Andrew Novak; 24) Bud Cauley / Kensei Hirata.
  • Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Ludvig Aberg; 2) Mark Hubbard; 3) J.J. Spaun; 4) Hayden Springer; 5) Doug Ghim; 6) Alex Smalley; 7) Chris Kirk; 8) Zach Bauchou / Sam Ryder; 10) Bud Cauley; 11) Rickie Fowler / Andrew Novak; 13) Max Greyserman; 14) Russell Henley; 15) Justin Thomas; 16) Austin Eckroat; 17) J.T. Poston; 18) Eric Cole; 19) Keita Nakajima / John Parry / Andrew Putnam / Gary Woodland; 23) Tom Kim; 24) Tony Finau / Ryo Hisatsune / Hideki Matsuyama / Matt McCarty.
  • Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Ben Griffin; 2) Michael Kim; 3) Mac Meissner; 4) Beau Hossler; 5) Akshay Bhatia; 6) Eric Cole / Alex Smalley; 8) Wyndham Clark; 9) Taylor Moore; 10) Pierceson Coody / Steven Fisk / Andrew Putnam / Erik van Rooyen; 14) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 15) Brian Campbell; 16) Brian Harman / Ben Martin; 18) A.J. Ewart / Karl Vilips; 20) Bud Cauley / Mackenzie Hughes / Sungjae Im / Justin Thomas; 24) Keegan Bradley; 25) Robert MacIntyre / Chandler Philips / Brandt Snedeker / Vincent Whaley.
  • Top 25 SG Total: 1) Ludvig Aberg; 2) Alex Smalley; 3) Eric Cole; 4) Zach Bauchou; 5) Austin Eckroat / Mac Meissner / Taylor Moore / Sam Ryder; 9) Bud Cauley / Wyndham Clark; 11) Doug Ghim; 12) Ben Griffin; 13) Andrew Putnam / J.J. Spaun; 15) Justin Thomas; 16) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Michael Kim; 18) Max Greyserman; 19) Pierceson Coody / Rickie Fowler / Gary Woodland; 22) Keegan Bradley / Chris Kirk / Hideki Matsuyama / Andrew Novak.

For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at Colonial Country Club click here.

Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of Charles Schwab Challenge winners here since 2024 – Gil Hanse renovation – gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2025, Ben Griffin (-12). SG Off the Tee: 16th, SG Approach: 31st, SG Around the Green: 11th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 3rd.
  • 2024, Davis Riley (-14). SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 39th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 4th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

  • SG Off the Tee: 11th, SG Approach: 17th, SG Around the Green: 25th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 4th.

Statistically, from a Stroke Gained perspective winners here in 2024 and 2025 have gained 2.29 strokes per round from Tee to Green (60%) and 1.55 Putting (40%).

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Charles Schwab Challenge winners here since 2024 – Gil Hanse renovation – gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2025, Ben Griffin (-12). 308 yards (55th), 51.8% fairways (46th), 65.3% greens in regulation (15th), 68.0 % scrambling (28th), 1.57 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2024, Davis Riley (-14). 319 yards (5th), 57.1% fairways (38th), 68.1% greens in regulation (3rd), 69.6 % scrambling (16th), 1.61 putts per GIR (1st).

Tournament Skill Averages:

  • Driving Distance: 30th, Driving Accuracy: 42nd, Greens in Regulation: 9th, Scrambling: 22nd, Putting Average 2nd.

Let’s take a view from players as to how the revised Gil Hanse Colonial sets-up and what skill sets the course favours:

Ben Griffin (2025): “Yeah, I mean, it’s a golf course that’s not that long for us on tour, but it’s very much so a positional golf course, a few dog legs. You have to try to keep it in the short grass to attack some of the pins. So I felt like that was kind of the goal going into the round was making sure I left myself in positions to be able to attack and take advantage of the conditions. I hit my driver great most of the day. Had a couple little hiccup holes coming in, but then bounced back with birdies on eight and nine. Yeah, the greens were rolling great too. It’s always nice playing a morning round where you have less spike marks and the greens were rolling great.

Yeah, it’s continuing to leave myself in positions to attack. That’s the key on this golf course. It’s very much a tree-lined golf course. There’s a lot of trouble in spots. Even on the holes that don’t even seem that challenging you can get yourself in a tough position quick. So being confident to some of those targets on my tee shots is important, and yeah, just trying to give myself a lot of birdie looks because the scores are never crazy low here, but if you can give yourself a lot of looks for birdie and knock down a few of them, you’re doing a good job here.

It’s just an old-school golf course. We don’t play a ton of it. We do play a decent amount, but you know, it seems like the way the landscape of modern professional golf is big, long golf courses, long par-3s. This is plenty hard of a test for us even though it’s not that long, if you look at the score cards. You have to be in the right positions. You hit a lot of irons off tees. You can take advantage of driver on certain holes. So I’m excited to attack some of the par-5s, attack some of the shorter par-4s with driver, and make sure I keep it in play on other par 4s with 10 and 17 with long irons off the tee.

I’m probably hitting eight drivers here, I would say. Eight or nine out here. I hit a decent amount. I remember I used to not hit driver on 2. Now I feel like I’m longer. I can get it up there close to the green. You know, 5 I’m hitting iron off that tee. It’s very much a placement hole. That’s one of the toughest holes on this golf course.

Even 9 I used to not hit driver, and now I like the way I’m playing aggressive on that hole to leave myself a little wedge in if I hit a good drive. Yeah, I’m still hitting a good amount of drivers, but really have to stay in position on those holes and hitting iron off the tee.”

Davis Riley (2024): “For sure, certainly on the greens it’s a lot different. There’s definitely a big learning curve Tuesday and Wednesday. Definitely the par-3s look a little bit different. I would say just getting used to the firmness into the greens, different contours on the greens. I just feel like I spent a lot of time Tuesday, Wednesday around and on the greens. Tee to green is fairly similar with the exception of the par-3s. Yeah, just a lot of work around the greens.

Yeah, I feel like the key to this place is putting the ball in the fairway, because it’s long, but if you’re hitting the fairways, there’s a little bit of run out, so you have some scoring clubs in your hands. If you’re able to execute the shots from the fairways you’re going to have some decent looks. I feel like I was hitting the ball in the fairway for the most part of the day and hitting my irons good and giving myself good looks and I had the putter rolling, so I feel like just a lot of fairways and greens and then rolling, you know, I feel like the putts that I feel like I needed to.

Brian Harman (2024): “I loved the old course so much, I had so many laps around this place, it’s one that I always had circled. I felt like I had a little bit of knowledge especially on the younger guys trying to play Colonial for the first couple times. But, yeah, we’re all on the same footing now, but I feel like the essence of the course is still the same. You got to hit some really demanding tee shots and if you can pull those off, you get some shorter clubs into the holes. So I don’t feel like that the main theme of this place has changed a whole lot.”

Keegan Bradley (2024): “Well, I think you have to think a little bit more. Like the second hole is an example. It’s short, hitting driver, you can err on that left side in the rough, at least you can hit the green. So you kind of, when you get on the tee, you have to think of those things. The right rough you can’t hit the green. I don’t know, it’s just you got to think your way around here.”

Tom Hoge (2024): “Just how smooth they roll really. I know from being in the area since college in 2007, when you get the heat here on these bent grass greens, I mean, I know at times they have had temporary greens here in the past because they have been so soft and really haven’t rolled well. But to see them this week, my first steps on ’em, it really didn’t look like bent grass, it looked more like Bermuda grass almost when you got on ’em. They really have this firmness, the ball’s rolling out when you get on ’em. So it really does change strategy. You got to be in the fairway here this week to have any sort of control coming into these greens. I think the golf course will play quite a bit more difficult this year as a result.”

Jordan Spieth (2024): “Some of the intricacies of the pin locations that we had that you had every single year you knew exactly where it was going to be, but it still would fool you. Even though the green’s in a different location in space, right, they’re lowered or they’re moved or whatever, some of these hole locations and slopes on those greens have been maintained. 17 and 18 in particular, to have essentially the same putts that you’re used to seeing, but it’s a different green and a different hole all together. Then you have a number of greens that are completely different and in a different place. That mix was kind of cool to the nerd in me to be able to still draw back on some putts that I’ve had in the past and some course knowledge, but there’s at the same time on you can throw it out the window on a lot of other holes.

About 13, I told Gil, I said, the only one that didn’t, that kind of stood out and wasn’t like the others was 13. As long as the right tee box is played I think it’s a fantastic par-3. But if it could also be — it could be the best hole on the course or the worst hole on the course depending upon where the tees are, given the hole locations and the wind. The firmness of the greens, it’s not really, doesn’t seem to me to be able to yield holding 5-irons, but if it’s a mid iron in, a good shot gets really rewarded. Then if you miss in the wrong spot, you can be in big trouble. You could have over 10 feet for par even hitting a good chip. So it’s a good risk/reward par-3 from the right tee box now. It was probably the most shocked of any hole that I walked up to the green to that I saw yesterday.”

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their group and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

  • 2025 – Pak – AM -7/63 -300/1.
  • 2024 – Hoffman – PM -5/65 -125/1.
  • 2023 – Hall – AM -8/62 -150/1.
  • 2022 – Davis/Hossler/Kirk/Reed/Scheffler/Simpson/N Taylor – 4AM/3PM  -4/66 – 100/1, 150/1, 55/1, 70/1, 25/1, 50/1, & 125/1.
  • 2021 – Garcia / Spieth – AM/PM  -7/63 – 66/1 & 25/1.
  • 2020 – Rose / Varner III – AM/PM  -7/63 – 50/1 & 125/1.
  • 2019 – Finau – AM -6/65 – 40/1.
  • 2018 – Na – PM -8/62 – 66/1.
  • 2017 – Fathauer / Kraft / Poston – 1AM/2PM -5/65.
  • 2016 – Molder – AM -6/64.
  • 2015 – Ishikawa / Na / Spieth / Weekley – 2AM/2PM -6/64.
  • 2014 – D Johnson – PM -5/65.
  • 2013 – Palmer – AM -8/62.
  • 2012 – Johnson – AM -6/64.
  • 2011 – Reavie / Toms – AM -8/62.
  • 2010 – Adams / Bohn / Overton – 2AM/1PM Split -7/63

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

  • 5 – Justin Thomas.
  • 4 – Hideki Matsuyama.
  • 3 – Keegan Bradley, Lucas Glover, Matt Kuchar.
  • 2 – Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Brian Harman, Billy Horschel, Tom Kim, Chris Kirk, Matt Kuchar, J.T. Poston.
  • 1 – Michael Brennan, Brian Campbell, Nico Echavarria, Ben Griffin, Emiliano Grillo, Harry Hall, Lee Hodges, Charley Hoffman, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Michael Kim, Kevin Kisner, Ben Martin, Matt McCarty, William Mouw, Seamus Power, Davis Riley, Brandt Snedeker, Kevin Streelman, Davis Thompson, Camilo Villegas.

Colonial has a habit of producing shorter-priced winners. Triple-digit winners are a rarity – but it happened in 2024.

Justin Rose won at 20/1 in 2018 whilst Kevin Kisner won at 33/1 in 2016 and Jordan Spieth was the 7/1 favourite in 2015. Chris Kirk delivered at 35/1 in 2015, whilst Adam Scott was 18/1 in 2014. Previous to that winner prices at the Crowne Plaza Invitational read: 2009: 28/1; 2010: 50/1; 2011: 33/1; 2012: 16/1. Outside of that, the in-form Boo Weekley scored here in 2014 at a very nice 100/1. However there has been a change of pace when we look across the last 7 renewals here.

Kevin Na won this at 70/1 in 2019, Daniel Berger at 70/1, Jason Kokrak at 60/1, Sam Burns at 30/1, Emiliano Grillo at 80/1 and last year’s winner Ben Griffin at 60/1. Exclude Davis Riley at 350/1 in 2024 and that averages at 62/1 across 6 of the last 7 visits to Colonial.

It’s clear that experience wins around Colonial with all winners here since 2004 having played a minimum of 2 tournament appearances prior. But as with many a classical golf course, both short-game specialists or grinding ball-strikers can get the job done at Colonial Country Club, where scoring is generally low- to mid-teens under par unless the wind really blows.

From a course form perspective, we have seen mixed looks in terms of winners’ profiles here of late. Ben Griffin had played here twice – his course form was 52/MC. Burns’ 2022 win here came in his third visit to Colonial with course form of MC/31. Berger’s win here in 2020 also came in his third appearance, where he had MC/53 to his name prior. Justin Rose’s victory here in 2018 was his first ever win in Texas and came in his 5th appearance at Colonial. In those preceding visits to Fort Worth, his best finish had been 13th way back on course debut in 2005. Adam Scott won here with nothing better than 64th and 65th in 2 previous appearances.

But conversely Riley (4th), Grillo (3rd and 8th), Kokrak (3rd), Na (4th, 7th, 9th and 10th), Kisner (5th and 10th), Kirk (5th), Weekley (9th), Zach Johnson (1st, 4th, 9th) and Toms (2nd, 3rd, 4th) all had top 10 results here before triumphing since 2011.

My Final Charles Schwab Challenge Tips Are As Follows:

Rickie Fowler 2.5pts EW 20/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Coral

Rickie Fowler at a weaker “2nd Division” full-field event makes sense. Ensconced now in the top 20 of the Datagolf rankings – 4th highest in this field – and in the top 40 of the Official World Golf Rankings, Rickie is going through his standard period of stacking-up top 10 finishes prior to winning. A prime example was his last win in 2023 where he had finished 6th at Colonial, 9th at Muirfield Village, 5th at the Los Angeles Country Club-hosted U.S. Open and 13th at TPC River Highlands – before winning in Detroit at 14/1. That’s Rickie style!

As short as 40/1 last time out for the PGA Championship where he missed the cut, Rickie prior to that has been playing that consistent golf we have become accustomed to pre-win. 8th at the RBC Heritage (Signature Event – 10th for SG Tee to Green), 9th at the Cadillac Championship (Signature Event – 8th for SG Approach) and 2nd at the Truist Championship (Signature Event – 3rd for Strokes Gained Putting), all facets of Fowler’s game have been firing – just not quite in synch enough to get the job done.

16th (2011), 5th (2012), 14th (2018), 6th (2023) and 16th (2025) here at Colonial across 12 appearances, last year’s effort is interesting. On the new course with relatively low confidence – Fowler was 110/1 best Monday price with bet365 – Rickie was 4th for Strokes Gained Putting that week. A -6/64 (T4 Score of the Day) on Friday and -3/67 (T6 Score of the Day) on Saturday saw the Jupiter, Florida-based resident start Sunday in the final group with Ben Griffin and Matti Schmid. Griffin won from Schmid with Fowler 16th after a closing +4/74. Right now I’d hazard a guess that Fowler will hang around now if in a similar position this Sunday.

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Justin Thomas 2.5pts EW 25/1 (6EW, 1/5) with BetMGM

By my reckoning, only 3 players have achieved the “Plaid Jacket Double.” That’s effectively winning at both Harbour Town and at “Hogan’s Alley” – Colonial Country Club. The list is pretty cool as well – Arnold Palmer, Nick Price and Jordan Spieth. I think Justin Thomas could well add his name to that coveted list this week.

JT has become a bit of a Par 70 and/or short-course specialist of late when you look at his PGA Tour wins. His last 4 victories (of 16) have been at Southwind (7,277 yard, Par 70), TPC Sawgrass (7,189 yard, Par 72), Southern Hills (7,556 yard, Par 70) and Harbour Town (7,213 yard, Par 71). That maybe on the basis that he has to take full driver far less on shorter courses, but I think the Colonial set-up in pretty brutal, humid, hot conditions will be right in his wheelhouse this week.

A momentum player, Justin’s Sunday 65 at the Aronimink-hosted PGA Championship last time out was the stuff of legend and his reaction to making the 17 foot putt on 18 showed how much it meant. Ultimately -5/275 total wasn’t enough to take the PGA, but he made sure not to have a celebratory beer in the clubhouse too early. T4 was his best finish in a Major since his 2022 PGA Championship win.

10th here in 2020 when he was 2nd heading into Sunday, I’m expecting the Kentuckian to like the Hanse restoration – in this field he ranks Number 1 for Hanse performances over the past 5 years on our Predictor Model.

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Alex Smalley 1.5pts EW 33/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

I’ll do the “Post-It Note of Doom” Hokey Cokey with Alex Smalley.  I simply have to. 14th at Valero Texas Open, 2nd at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with Hayden Springer, 7th at the Signature-event Cadillac Championship, 17th at the Truist Championship and 2nd at the PGA Championship – in this field only Ludvig Aberg enters with better form over the past 8 weeks.

Rested after the exertions of Aronimink, Smalley must be ready to go at a Colonial course that’s been on his schedule for the past 4 seasons. A maiden PGA Tour title must be in his sights and Texas wouldn’t be a bad spot to do it. Across Smalley’s 16 PGA Tour starts in the Lone Star State, he has 1 top 5 plus 5 additional top 27 finishes across Memorial Park, TPC San Antonio, Craig Ranch and here at Colonial.

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Tony Finau 1.5pts EW 55/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Missing out on the Masters and PGA Championship may have finally hit home with Tony Finau. Not making the biggest tournaments hits hard – Tony has been an ever present at Majors since 2018 – and despite Sponsor Invites into 4 PGA Tour Signature events this season, Tony had slumped to 120th in the Official World Golf Rankings. That changed last week at TPC Craig Ranch where Finau shots rounds of -8/63 (Friday) and -6/65 (Sunday) to place 6th. That was his best PGA Tour finish since Riviera last February – 15 months ago.

19th (2015), 2nd (2019), 20th (2021), 4th (2022) and 17th (2024) across 9 appearances, Finau is comfortable around “Hogan’s Alley” and that final 17th was on the new Hanse restoration where Tony was 2nd after Thursday and 6th heading into Sunday.

Across our Colonial Strokes Gained Rankings, Tony in this field sits 1st for Off the Tee, 3rd for Tee to Green and 3rd for Strokes Gained Total – of players with multiple Colonial appearances.

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Taylor Moore 1pt EW 60/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Coral

I’ll stick with Taylor Moore for his third consecutive outing after another solid week in semi-contention.

Taylor has always liked golf in the southern United States. 5th at the 2022 Wyndham Championship, he won the 2023 Valspar Championship on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook. 5th at the 2023 FedEx St Jude Championship at TPC Southwind, 12th at the Valhalla-hosted PGA Championship, Taylor was also 2nd at the 2024 Houston Open at Memorial Park. Add to that a 2nd this March at the Cognizant Classic at PGA National and you can see his liking for southern agronomy. Colonial is Bermudagrass to the green complexes which feature 007XL Bentgrass – pretty much the same as we saw at Craig Ranch last week – Moore was 10th for Strokes Gained Putting last week.

20th when partnered with Wyndham Clark at the Zurich Classic, 17th at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic – he was 6th at after 36 holes – Taylor was First Round Leader at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson last week and was in the top 6 late on Saturday before a disastrous triple at the par-3 15th. Those 3 shots cost me a handsome 100/1 full each-way payout as the Texan finished in 14th spot, 3 shots off a sole 6th finish!

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 14:35BST 25.5.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.