Course Guide: The CJ Cup-sponsored Byron Nelson returns to TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas for its sixth visit. A relatively new course to the PGA Tour, Craig Ranch hosted U.S. Open Sectional Qualifiers in 2019 and various PGA Tour and Korn Ferry 2nd Stage Qualifying Schools which are worth a look. It’s also hosted a couple of Korn Ferry Tour Championship tournaments across 2008 and 2012. Set in a rolling valley, the course features tree-lined fairways and plenty of water in-play around the course. To this point it’s always been a birdie-fest, but 2026 sees a Lanny Wadkins-inspired restoration which sees narrower fairways and new Bentgrass greens.
TPC Craig Ranch, McKinney, Dallas, Texas: Designer: Tom Weiskopf, 2004 with 2024-2025 Lanny Wadkins renovation; Course Type: Parkland, Resort, Texas, Medium Length; Par: 71; Length: 7,385 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 13; Number of Sand Bunkers: 83: Acres of Fairway: 24; Fairways: Stadium Zoysiagrass; Rough: TifTuf Bermudagrass 3.25″; Greens: 6,778 sq.ft average featuring 777 Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 11.5ft.
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for TPC Craig Ranch and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
- TPC Craig Ranch: 25-28 yards.
- Aronimink: 30 yards.
- Quail Hollow: 28 yards.
- Blue Monster, Doral: 25-40 yards.
- Harbour Town: 22-25 yards.
- Augusta National: Average 50 yards.
- Oaks Course: 25-30 yards.
- Memorial Park: 30–40 yards.
- Copperhead: Average 20 yards.
- TPC Sawgrass: Average 28 yards.
- Bay Hill: Average 30 yards.
- PGA National: Average 28 yards.
- Riviera: Average 27 yards.
- Pebble Beach: Average 30-33 yards. Spyglass Hill: 25-30 yards.
- TPC Scottsdale: Average 38 yards.
- Torrey Pines South: Average 24-27 yards. Torrey Pines North: Average 24-27 yards.
- Pete Dye Stadium: Average 33 yards.
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
- 2025: 69.13 (-1.87), Rank 37 of 50 courses (14th easiest)
- 2024: 68.50 (-2.50), Rank 45 of 51 courses (7th easiest)
- 2023: 68.91 (-2.09), Rank 44 of 49 courses (6th easiest)
- 2022: 69.22 (-2.78), Rank 47 of 50 courses (4th easiest)
- 2021: 57 (-2.43), Rank 47 of 51 courses (5th easiest)
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Tom Weiskopf designs include (including re-designs):
- Black Desert Resort – Black Desert Championship
- North Course, Torrey Pines 2017-Present Farmers Insurance Open
- TPC Scottsdale – Waste Management Phoenix Open
Course Overview: In 2021 the Byron Nelson moved to a new home. Part of the PGA Tour’s own TPC Network, Craig Ranch has proved to be a breeze for the very best players in the world. Located in McKinney on the north-east fringes of Dallas, it played as a 7,468 yard, Par 72 set-up, with the standard split of 4 par-3s and 4-par-5s.
The course itself is a Tom Weiskopf original design, with gently rolling hills and mature woods surrounding the limestone banks of Rowlett Creek. Ex-PGA Tour player D.A. Weibring also served as a consultant on the golf course design. Water in various guises is apparent throughout the course with Rowlett Creek crossing the course 14 points. The course itself is far more conventional than the quirky faux-links at Trinity Forest, which hosted the Byron Nelson across both 2018 and 2019.
Lanny Watkins has been the head of a $22 million restoration whereby we saw changes across 2025 and now into 2026. For 2025 he extended the course, narrowed the fairways and overseeded the course with ryegrass. Rough was up to 3.25”, but it made little difference to Scottie Scheffler who shot -31/253. There was a slight jump in difficulty though, as the course played over half a shot tougher, despite soft conditions.
For 2026 we see a reduction in yardage – down from 7,569 yards to 7,385 yards – that’s 184 yards shorter. Par remains as a Par 71, but the restoration sees the closing par-5 18th become a 480 yard par-4. The single par-5 on the back 9 will be the 540 yard, 12th hole.
From an agronomy perspective, the biggest change for 2026 sees new green complexes with 777 Bentgrass now in-play – heat resistant for the harsh North Texas climate. Stadium Zoysia returns – it was overseeded in 2025 – on the fairways. The rough and tees have been upgraded with TifTuf Bermudagrass.
How these changes impact scoring we will have to see, but I’d still expect a resort-level scoring eagle and birdie making test, unless the new greens repel approach shots to a degree we haven’t witnessed to this point.
The front 9 at Craig Ranch is where some serious birdies can be made. The 1st, 3rd and 6th holes are all par-4s at 430 yards or less. Throw in the extended 635 yard (5th) and 564 yard (9th) par-5s and there are birdies to be made on these Bentgrass greens.
TPC Craig Ranch does share one familiarity with previous host venue Trinity Forest in that the course has been planted with Zoysiagrass fairways, which we see on occasions in the southern states of the United States, plus in Japan.
Zoysiagrass fairways on the PGA Tour and recent Majors also feature at
- East Lake – Tour Championship
- Narashino CC – 2019, + 2021 – 2024 ZOZO Championship
- The Dunes Golf and Beach Club – Myrtle Beach Classic
- TPC Southwind – WGC St Jude Championship + WGC-St Jude Invitational + FedEx St Jude Classic
- Valhalla Golf Club – 2024 PGA Championship
- Yokohama Country Club – 2025 Baycurrent Classic
Zoysia isn’t the most popular of fairway grasses with many players who claim the quirky grass promotes flyers. These fairways also featured at the 2011 PGA Championship hosted at Atlanta Athletic Club and at Bellerive Country Club which hosted the 2018 PGA Championship.
Byron Nelson Winners: Hosted at Craig Ranch: 2025: Scottie Scheffler (-31); 2024: Taylor Pendrith (-23); 2023: Jason Day (-23); 2022: K.H. Lee (-26); 2021: K.H. Lee (-25); Hosted at Trinity Forest: 2019: Sung Kang (-23); 2018: Aaron Wise (-23); Hosted at AT&T Four Seasons: 2017: Billy Horschel; 2016: Sergio Garcia; 2015: Steven Bowditch; 2014: Brendon Todd; 2013: Sang-moon Bae; 2012: Jason Dufner; 2011: Keegan Bradley; 2010: Jason Day.
- 2025: Scottie Scheffler 61-63-66-63 -31/253
- 2024: Taylor Pendrith 64-67-63-67 -23/261
- 2023: Jason Day 64-69-66-62 -23/261
- 2022: K.H. Lee 64-68-67-63 -26/262
- 2021: K.H. Lee 65-65-67-66 -25/263
OWGR of Byron Nelson Winners: 2025: Scheffler 1; 2024: Pendrith 107; 2023: Day 35; 2022: K.H. Lee 88; 2021: K.H. Lee 137.
Datagolf Ranking Byron Nelson Winners: 2025: Scheffler 1; 2024: Pendrith 128; 2023: Day 17; K.H. Lee 97; 2021: K.H. Lee 129.
TPC Craig Ranch Cut Line: 2025: -5; 2024: -6; 2023: -4; 2022: -5; 2021: -6.
Lead Score Progression:
- 2025: Round 1 -10; Round 2 -18; Round 3 -23; Round 4 -31.
- 2024: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -19; Round 4 -23.
- 2023: Round 1 -11; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -16; Round 4 -23.
- 2022: Round 1 -12; Round 2 -15; Round 3 -21; Round 4 -26.
- 2021: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -17; Round 3 -20; Round 4 -25.
Path to Victory: Below are end of round positions for Byron Nelson winners at TPC Craig Ranch:
- 2025 – Scottie Scheffler: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2024 – Taylor Pendrith: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 1st.
- 2023 – Jason Day: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 6th, Round 3: 4th.
- 2022 – K.H. Lee: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 6th, Round 3: 6th.
- 2021 – K.H. Lee: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 2nd.
Shots From the Lead: Below are Byron Nelson winners at TPC Craig Ranch and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
- 2025 – Scottie Scheffler: Round 1: 2 ahead, Round 2: 6 ahead, Round 3: 8 ahead.
- 2024 – Taylor Pendrith: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
- 2023 – Jason Day: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 2 back.
- 2022 – K.H. Lee: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 4 back.
- 2021 – K.H. Lee: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 1 back.
Incoming Form of Byron Nelson winners since 2010:
- Scottie Scheffler: 8th Heritage/4th Augusta/2nd Houston/20th TPC Sawgrass.
- Taylor Pendrith: 11th New Orleans/11th Corales/MC Copperhead/36th Houston.
- Jason Day: MC Quail/39th Augusta/QF WMP/19th TPC Sawgrass.
- K.H. Lee: 25th TPC Potomac/MC Heritage/MC Masters/MC San Antonio.
- K.H. Lee: 58th Quail/29th Copperhead/23rd New Orleans/56th Heritage.
- Sung Kang: MC Quail/MC New Orleans/42nd San Antonio/18th Copperhead.
- Aaron Wise: 2nd Quail/MC New Orleans/MC TPC San Antonio/32nd Houston.
- Billy Horschel: MC Sawgrass/MC New Orleans/MC TPC San Antonio/MC Heritage.
- Sergio Garcia: 54th Sawgrass/3rd Valderrama/34th Augusta/MDF Houston.
- Steven Bowditch: DQ Colonial/47th Quail/MC Sawgrass/12th New Orleans.
- Brendon Todd: MC Quail/38th Heritage/43rd Houston/6th San Antonio.
- Sang-moon Bae: 33rd Sawgrass/MC Ballantines/48th Heritage/WD San Antonio.
- Jason Dufner: 68th Sawgrass/1st New Orleans/24th Heritage/24th Masters.
- Keegan Bradley: 72nd Sawgrass/MC Quail/26th New Orleans/MC Heritage.
- Jason Day: MC Players/22nd Quail/22nd Heritage/MC Houston.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Si Woo Kim; 3) Austin Eckroat; 4) Pierceson Coody; 5) Davis Thompson; 6) Eric Cole; 7) Brooks Koepka; 8) Karl Vilips; 9) Aaron Rai, 10) Wyndham Clark.
CJ Cup Byron Nelson Winners & Prices: 2025: Scheffler 11/4F; 2024: Pendrith 90/1; 2023: Day 18/1; 2022: K.H. Lee 125/1; 2021: K.H. Lee 200/1; 2019: Kang 125/1; 2018: Wise 50/1; 2017: Horschel 125/1; 2016: Garcia 25/1; 2015: Bowditch 500/1; 2014: Todd 100/1; 2013: Bae 150/1; 2012: Dufner 22/1; 2011: Bradley 200/1; 2010: Day 100/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 87/1; Average: 122/1.
Historical Weather:
- 2025: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 81. Winds SE at 5-10 mph. Preferred lies. Friday: Cloudy. High of 83. Winds NNE at 5-10 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Preferred lies. Round two was suspended at 9:46 a.m. CT due to lightning and resumed at 4:01 p.m. a delay of 6 hours, 15 minutes. Rain on Friday: 0.88 inches. Saturday: Sunny. High of 72. Wind N at 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Preferred lies. Sunday: Sunny. High of 74. Winds ESE at 4-8 mph.
- 2024: Thursday: One-hour delay to first-round tee times due to inclement weather. Mostly cloudy. High of 83. Wind SE 10-15 mph. Preferred lies. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 79. Wind SE 10-15 mph. Preferred lies. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 78. Wind SSE 7-14 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 77. Wind SSE 10-15 mph. Preferred lies.
- 2023: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 85. Wind SSE 10-15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 88. Wind S 10-15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 83. Wind SSE 8-14 mph. Sunday: Cloudy with scattered showers. High of 81. Wind SE 6-12 mph.
- 2022: Thursday: Sunny. High of 91. Wind SSE 13-17 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 92. Wind SSE 14-18 mph, gusting to 24 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 91. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 96. Wind S 12-16 mph, gusting to 23 mph.
- 2021: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 71. Wind NNW 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 69. Wind NW 12-18 mph, gusting to 30 mph. Saturday: Partly sunny and breezy. High of 74. Wind W 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Sunday: Partly Cloudy. High of 81. Wind SSW 12-15 mph with gusts of 30 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Dallas, Texas is here.
An 80% chance of precipitation on Tuesday, with a further 70% chance on Wednesday evening into Thursday, should lead to soft conditions early. That electrical activity is a risk throughout Thursday and into Friday, so expect delays. The weekend doesn’t look immune to thunderstorms either, so all-in-all firm conditions look unlikely.
Temperatures build from 26 Celsius – 79 Fahrenheit on Thursday up to 29-32 Celsius – 84-90 Fahrenheit across Friday – Sunday. Southerly winds of 15-25 mph are a feature over the final 54 holes.
Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Houston Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
- Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Ryan Brehm; 2) Michael Brennan; 3) Scottie Scheffler; 4) Hayden Springer; 5) Doug Ghim; 6) Ben Silverman; 7) Gordon Sargent / Neal Shipley; 9) Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen; 10) Jordan Spieth / Davis Thompson; 12) Keith Mitchell; 13) Si Woo Kim; 14) Michael Thorbjornsen; 15) Rasmus Hojgaard / Jimmy Stanger / Kevin Roy; 18) Brooks Koepka; 19) Keita Nakajima; 20) Pierceson Coody / Pontus Nyholm; 22) Sungjae Im / Justin Lower / Taylor Pendrith; 25) Rico Hoey.
- Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Aaron Rai; 3) Blades Brown; 4) James Hahn; 5) Karl Vilips; 6) Taylor Montgomery; 7) Lee Hodges / John Parry / Camilo Villegas; 10) Henrik Norlander / Marcelo Rozo; 12) Jordan Smith; 13) Luke Clanton; 14) Austin Eckroat; 15) Ryo Hisatsune / Adam Svensson / Jhonattan Vegas; 18) Mark Hubbard / Davis Thompson; 20) Kevin Streelman; 21) Adrien Dumont de Chassart / Tom Hoge; 23) Jordan Spieth; 24) Si Woo Kim / Andrew Putnam.
- Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Paul Peterson; 2) Eric Cole; 3) Nick Hardy / Henrik Norlander; 5) Marty Dou; 6) Blades Brown; 7) Andrew Putnam; 8) Christo Lamprecht; 9) Adam Svensson; 10) Austin Eckroat; 11) Sungjae Im; 12) Mackenzie Hughes / Mac Meissner; 14) Peter Malnati / Kevin Roy; 16) Chris Kirk / Davis Riley / Scottie Scheffler / Robert Streb; 20) Noah Goodwin; 21) Zac Blair / A.J. Ewart / Camilo Villegas; 24) Lanto Griffin / Danny Walker.
- Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Blades Brown; 3) Aaron Rai; 4) Davis Thompson; 5) Ryan Brehm / Hayden Springer; 7) Austin Eckroat; 8) Si Woo Kim; 9) Jordan Spieth; 10) Kevin Yu; 11) Doug Ghim / Lee Hodges; 13) Adam Svensson; 14) Brooks Koepka; 15) Chris Kirk / Thorbjorn Olesen; 17) Pontus Nyholm / Danny Walker; 19) Mac Meissner / Henrik Norlander / Jordan Smith; 22) Ryo Hisatsune; 23) Adrien Dumont de Chassart / Andrew Putnam / Marcelo Rozo.
- Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Paul Peterson; 2) Keita Nakajima; 3) Cameron Davis; 4) David Skinns; 5) Blades Brown / Beau Hossler; 7) Eric Cole; 8) Adam Hadwin / Takumi Kanaya; 10) Martin Laird; 11) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Andrew Putnam; 13) Mac Meissner; 14) Ben Kohles; 15) Mackenzie Hughes; 16) Aaron Rai; 17) Danny Willett; 18) Sam Ryder / Karl Vilips; 20) Erik van Rooyen; 21) Steven Fisk / Taylor Moore; 23) Harry Higgs; 24) Chad Ramey; 25) Adrien Dumont de Chassart / Ryo Hisatsune.
- Top 25 SG Total: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Blades Brown; 3) Paul Peterson; 4) Keita Nakajima; 5) Aaron Rai; 6) Mac Meissner; 7) Austin Eckroat; 8) Eric Cole / Beau Hossler / David Skinns / Hayden Springer; 12) Si Woo Kim; 13) Adrien Dumont de Chassart / Ben Kohles; 15) Thorbjorn Olesen; 16) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Andrew Putnam / Davis Thompson; 19) Karl Vilips; 20) Pontus Nyholm; 21) Taylor Moore; 22) Jordan Spieth; 23) Kevin Yu; 24) Sam Ryder; 25) Doug Ghim.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at TPC Craig Ranch click here.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Byron Nelson winners here since 2021 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
- 2025, Scottie Scheffler (-31). SG Off the Tee: 3rd, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 57th, SG Tee to Green: 10th, SG Putting: 6th.
- 2024, Taylor Pendrith (-23). SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 38th, SG Around the Green: 3rd, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 14th.
- 2023, Jason Day (-23). SG Off the Tee: 12th, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 31st, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 28th.
- 2022, K.H. Lee (-26). SG Off the Tee: 20th, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 10th, SG Tee to Green: 5th, SG Putting: 13th.
- 2021, K.H. Lee (-25). SG Off the Tee: 23rd, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 24th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 9th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
- SG Off the Tee: 13th, SG Approach: 10th, SG Around the Green: 25th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 14th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Byron Nelson winners here since 2021 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
- 2025, Scottie Scheffler (-31). 304 yards (30th), 71.4% fairways (4th), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 69.2 % scrambling (24th), 1.53 putts per GIR (1st).
- 2024, Taylor Pendrith (-23). 319 yards (5th), 64.3% fairways (27th), 75.0% greens in regulation (26th), 83.3 % scrambling (4th), 1.57 putts per GIR (1st).
- 2023, Jason Day (-23). 307 yards (23rd), 64.3% fairways (34th), 77.8% greens in regulation (10th), 81.3 % scrambling (10th), 1.64 putts per GIR (19th).
- 2022, K.H. Lee (-26). 307 yards (49th), 66.1% fairways (22nd), 76.4% greens in regulation (18th), 88.2 % scrambling (4th), 1.67 putts per GIR (33rd).
- 2021, K.H. Lee (-25). 292 yards (35th), 66.1% fairways (41st), 80.6% greens in regulation (5th), 78.6 % scrambling (18th), 1.60 putts per GIR (2nd).
Tournament Skill Averages:
- Driving Distance: 28th, Driving Accuracy: 26th, Greens in Regulation: 12th, Scrambling: 12th, Putting Average 11th.
Let’s take a view from players as to how TPC Craig Ranch sets-up and what skill sets the course favours:
Scottie Scheffler (2025): “The fairways being narrower, and changing from Zoysia to rye, I think it’s really good. I think this golf course, the knock on it would be that it was a little bit too easy the last two years. There wasn’t a ton of rough, and the fairways were too generous. So having the overseeded rough and bringing in some of the fairways, I think brings a challenge to the course. I think that’s a good thing. I think putting more of a premium on guys getting the ball in play and not just hitting it as far as you can, I think it’s a really good thing for the golf course. We’ll see how it plays out this week.
The course was shockingly dry for a Thursday. The greens, too. I expected to walk onto the first green and kind of feel some sponginess. You couldn’t tell that we got three, four inches of rain here yesterday. Golf course recovered nicely and hopefully rain holds off the rest of the week, and we’ll see what happens.”
Taylor Pendrith (2024): “Got off to a pretty good start. On 1 and 2 I hit really nice putts that lipped out from probably 15 feet. The greens are so good, so just knew stay patient and I’m going to make a couple putts. Made a long one on 4 and that kind of just jump started the round. Played really solid. Didn’t really have to scramble for par at all I don’t think. Missed a couple greens but in an easy spot to chip it close, so, yeah, overall great day. Best shot I hit today was 3-wood into 18. I had 256 flag and the wind was in off the left and hit my spot perfectly. Hit it really solid and probably 30, 40 feet on the back fringe. That was the best shot.
I think I learned that I need to stay aggressive, play my own game, not worry about what others are doing and go out there and win it and not let it I guess be brought to you. So that’s what I was trying to do today, stay aggressive. I hit driver on the first hole, which was maybe borderline. If I hit it a little right would be in the hazard. Hit a nice wedge shot and made birdie on the first. Got off to a good start and calmed the nerves a little bit. Yeah, felt like I was driving it good and there was no reason for me not to hit driver on most holes and stay aggressive, because obviously needed to shoot low today to get it done and somebody from the back could have shot 7-, 8-, 9-under to contend So, yeah, that’s what I learned. Just go out there and play aggressive and go and get it.”
Jason Day (2023): ” I mean, you do have to be aggressive, but you’ve got to be careful because there was a good 20 wind out there today, and if you’re trying to push too hard, the way the Bermuda sits and if you’re in the rough and at all short-siding yourself, you can play your way out of it. You’ve still got to be patient, but I know that in the past this has yielded pretty low numbers here, so you kind of have to understand that and then just take it day by day.
Depends on the wind, but yeah, actually you can probably birdie all the holes. You’ve got to be driving it well here. With the softer conditions, we definitely — it definitely widens the fairways. They’re already kind of wide anyway, so it widens the fairways, and then with the softer greens, it’s just kind of like — everyone is kind of flagging it. That’s probably understandable obviously through the scores that you’re seeing.
Yeah, I was trying to get at least one in the last three. Unfortunately bogeyed 16. Nice to be able to birdie 18. It’s funny, the bunkers, not a lot of sand in them. They’ve got a pretty firm base. I’m not saying there’s no sand. They’ve got a really firm base and there’s like a thin layer of sand on there so you’ve got of contact the ball correctly and I caught it a little bit behind, that’s why it kind of shot through. It was good to be able to hole that putt, good momentum going into tomorrow.
On 12 I actually got a little bit unlucky with the hole prior hitting a pitching wedge. It hit the flag, and it ricocheted off the green. I had a lot of good momentum going into that hole just because I birdied 9 and 10, had a really good look at 8 and 7. I chose a 56 because I knew the greens were a little bit softer, that if I landed it very similar to where I would land a 60, it would actually roll up the hill. That was one of those ones where you’re like, I was in the middle of the fairway, I said to my caddie, let’s just go chip it in. But you’re saying that but you’re not really thinking about it, you’re just saying it just because you’re kind of filling in the blanks.
Yeah, I got up there and I’m sitting there reading like it’s actually quite straight and then I chipped it and it went in, so that was a nice kick in the right direction. I was sitting there going, okay, I need to birdie 14, I need to birdie 18 because they’re two holes that you have to birdie, that the guys are going to birdie. It was nice to get through that, and then the bonus was 15, to be able to get the birdie on 15, hitting a 5-iron just right of that hole on the correct plateau was crucial and rolling that putt in was nice.”
K.H. Lee (2022): “I think here is irons game, need irons game good and also putting, because a lot of guys a lot birdie and eagle, so need to low under par. I’m comfortable with tee shot here. I hit a really good iron shot and then I think the key here is iron shot, because a lot of guys make a birdie. So when I hear par-3 or when I tee shot any holes, very, very comfortable, then make more confidence and then it helped this week.”
“Honestly, just my goal is when I, before final round I want to play well, but I don’t think about win, just keep momentum and next week. But No. 2 I think birdie, maybe 50 feet something, make a long putt. And then on number 3 it’s pretty, like 25 feet in the hole. So make more momentum. And then No. 12 make eagle. So I think maybe some chance winning again, so that makes more confidence in myself at that time.”
Jordan Spieth (2022): “ So if you’re in the fairway you can attack pins on a lot of the greens, but if you’re not you’re really out of position because they stick ’em over in corners and the way the course is designed it’s, you have to be able to have spin on the ball to get close to the pin. So it’s still going to be a premium on driving, probably more of a premium on driving the ball accurately than it was maybe last year, just because the fairways will play 5 to 10 yards smaller with how firm they are and I think that that’s going to be what the tournament, the Tour, everybody wants out of this place. It can show a little bit of teeth and it’s certainly in the best condition, shape I’ve ever seen it in.”
“I think I said ahead of time I thought that it would show a little more teeth than last year and I couldn’t have been more wrong. I mean a 60 yesterday and a lot of 8s and 7s all over the board. I mean it’s just, a lot of tees are up, it was very surprising. Like the 9th tee being up on the front box, I hit 7 and 8-iron into that par-5 and it’s just designed to have to hit a shot from 250 yards. So obviously that’s nice when you’re in the situation. But they moved some par-3s up too. They moved, like No. 2 they moved to the front of the box. Some interesting ones. And then I think they were looking at the weekend as a lot less wind and so they used more of the easier pins the first two days because I can only name one or two pins on this golf course that were not the easiest two locations that are on the greens. So maybe that’s the reason why, I’m not sure. I’m a little bit surprised at how, on a not-so-difficult golf course they have also set it up a little easier for us too.”
Charl Schwartzel (2021): “Yeah, I did think about it halfway through the back nine. I was like, I haven’t had a round without a bogey for quite sometime. I’ve been playing well. You know, this golf course is really there for the taking, so if there was ever one to do it on, it would be this one. Yeah, especially after last week, Quail Hollow is such a tough golf course and you have to be very strategic. I found myself through the first 12 holes being too conservative, and I turned to my caddie and said, course is soft. I don’t think we can keep hitting away from the flags. It’s a mental shift. I tried to be a bit more aggressive.
This course driving is quite easy, so it’s all second shots, trying to get them close enough. End of the day this tournament is going to come down to a putting contest, who putts the best.”
Sergio Garcia (2021): “For my eagle on 6. Yes, we hit driver and thought we couldn’t reach because it was into the wind, but we knew if we hit it in the fairway we’re going to be around that 50 yard range, and a little bit into the breeze even with a front pin I could nip it nicely out of the Zoysiagrass and spin it. Caught it perfectly. As soon as hit it I knew it was going to be close. Didn’t know if it was going to go in or not, but knew it was going to be close. It was nice to hear the crowd go a little bit crazy there, because we couldn’t see it go in.”
Matt Kuchar (2021): “Warming up on the range this morning it was blowing hard. I was nervous going out there. I saw some pretty good scores up on the leaderboard thinking, boy, I don’t see how the guys are putting them up. I know the course is receptive, but with 15 to 20 mile an hour winds it’s a lot more challenging. Thankfully I was able to get a few birdies early on and kind of get off to a really good start. Think I was 4-under through 6, and made me feel like, All right, it is gettable. Let’s see if we can keep going, and was able to get in with 6-under par today.
Yeah, you never know when the birdies are going to come. You take them when they come, and I was grateful to get them early. Couple scoring holes, I think the third hole is a scoring hole, was able to take advantage there. Then the 5th hole is a par-5, so those two are good. The 6th hole is also almost a drivable hole. So kind of took advantage of those three really easy holes and threw another birdie in as well.”
Patton Kizzire (2021): “I would say my approach, my iron game is one of my strengths, and that’s huge when you match that with my putting. My putting is the best part of my game by far, so when I start hitting the iron shots close I can go low, and I did today.Yeah, I’ll take a lot of confidence. Yeah, so on 15 tee the storm came in, and, gosh, it seemed like it sped everything up. You got the umbrella, you got the wind, rain, yardage, you got so many different factors going and it throws your routine off.
15, 16, 17, and 18, played very difficult, and I would’ve liked to played them under par. The birdie on 17 helped me get it back to even on those four holes, and certainly would’ve liked to birdie 18. But I’m going to hang around and see what happens, and very pleased with 9-under. Most of my wins have come on courses with low scoring, so I enjoy this type of golf. I like to try to go low. I like a lot of birdies and I’ll be back next year.”
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their group and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.
- 2025 – Scheffler – PM -10/61 – 14/1F.
- 2024 – Wallace – AM -8/64 – 125/1.
- 2023 – Noh – AM -11/61 – 150/1.
- 2022 – Munoz – AM -12/60 – 80/1.
- 2021 – Spaun / Spieth – AM/PM Split -9/63 – 175/1 & 20/1.
- 2019 – McCarthy – AM -8/63 – 100/1.
- 2018 – Leishman – PM -10/61 – 35/1.
- 2017 – Barnes / Hahn – Both AM -6/64 – 200/1 & 125/1.
- 2016 – Garcia / D Lee / Wagner – 1AM/2PM -7/63.
- 2015 – Bowditch – AM -8/62.
- 2014 – Hanson – PM -5/65.
- 2013 – Bradley – AM -10/60.
- 2012 – Palmer – PM -6/64.
- 2011 – Overton – PM -6/64.
- 2010 – Day / Mahan – AM/PM Split -4/66.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
- 6 – Scottie Scheffler.
- 5 – Jordan Spieth.
- 4 – Brooks Koepka.
- 3 – Jhonattan Vegas.
- 2 – Billy Horschel, Tom Kim, Chris Kirk, Matt Kuchar, Martin Laird, K.H. Lee, Troy Merritt.
- 1 – Michael Brennan, Brian Campbell, Wyndham Clark, Emiliano Grillo, Lee Hodges, Charley Hoffman, Sungjae Im, Ben Martin, William Mouw, Taylor Pendrith, Seamus Power, Davis Riley, Kevin Streelman, Davis Thompson, Camilo Villegas, Danny Willett.
The Byron Nelson is always a difficult tournament to call and a move, 5 years ago, to yet another new course adds another level of intrigue to this betting heat. As a tournament we’ve seen a whole list of unexpected winners. Indeed Jason Day (this was 2010), Keegan Bradley, Sang-moon Bae, Brendon Todd, Steven Bowditch, Billy Horschel, Sung Kang and K.H. Lee (twice) have won 9 of the past 15 renewals at triple-digits. Bowditch topped the lot price-wise delivering a 500/1 coup for the bookmakers 11 years ago.
K.H. Lee’s duo of wins here at TPC Craig Ranch came at 200/1 and 125/1, with Taylor Pendrith a 90/1 price here in 2024.
On the reverse side, Jason Dufner (22/1 in 2012), Sergio Garcia (25/1 in 2016), Jason Day (18/1 2023) and Scottie Scheffler (11/4F), have been the short-priced players in the betting market who ultimately prevailed since 2010. And 2018 saw the prestigiously talented Aaron Wise overhaul long term leader Marc Leishman and capture his first (and only) PGA Tour title at 50/1.
Another angle is that recent winners Taylor Pendrith, K.H. Lee, Kang, Wise, Todd, Bae, Bradley and Day had never won on the PGA Tour.
Jason Dufner in 2012 had only captured his previous victory 2 appearances prior at TPC Louisiana. 2017 saw Billy Horschel arrive with form of MC-MC-MC-MC to then go onto capture his 4th PGA Tour victory. The Floridian had not won a tournament since the 2014 Tour Championship ending a 2 and 1/2 year hiatus. Sergio Garcia in 2016 had not won on the PGA Tour for 2 and 3/4 years. Jason Day broke a 5 year winless steak with an emotional victory here in 2023, whilst K.H Lee won when defending his maiden PGA Tour title. It’s certainly a mixed picture!
