Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford's CJ Cup Tips 2021

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Congratulations if you were on-board Sungjae Im at 33/1 last week. Sungjae thoroughly deserved the win with a closing 62, and yet again highlighted that you have to be straight off the tee to win at TPC Summerlin. I had to settle for another 2nd place finish (my speciality) with Matthew Wolff at 45/1 – so frustrating!

We enter the Asian swing part of the PGA Tour schedule which should have seen us travel to South Korea and Japan across consecutive weeks. Travel restrictions are very much in place across South Korea, so the CJ Cup will be played on US soil, as it was in 2020. The CJ Cup @ Summit is the result, which inessence sees the fifth CJ Cup and the same 78-man field with no cut again in operation.

Jason Kokrak defends the title at a new to the PGA Tour exclusive Las Vegas venue. With a $9.75 million purse this week, which is the second largest player fund this autumn, the field as you would expect is excellent, attracted by huge hauls of both FedEx Cup and OWGR points.

The CJ Cup field comprises 78 attendees including the top 60 available players from the closing 2021 FedEx Cup rankings, 10 PGA Tour sponsor’s exemptions, and a number of South Korean players – some familiar, some not. The sponsor’s exemption list is also extremely deep – Jason Day, Tommy Fleetwood, Rickie Fowler, Tyrrell Hatton, Rasmus Hojgaard, Ian Poulter, Justin Rose, Adam Scott and Gary Woodland – not too shabby I think you will agree.

Before we go into the detail surrounding the CJ Cup, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System, Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,000 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

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Course Guide: We visit a new PGA Tour venue this week in the form of The Summit Club in west Las Vegas, Nevada. A 555 acre private gated community with residents including Celine Dion and Las Vegas Raiders owner Mark Davis, the property which opened in 2017 also includes a Tom Fazio-designed golf course. Described as the most luxurious golf club in Las Vegas, The Summit Club looks like the kind of pristine course that some of the best players in the world will take apart.

The Summit Club, Las Vegas, Nevada: Designer: Tom Fazio, 2007; Course Type: Resort, Desert; Par: 72; Length: 7,431 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 7; Fairways: Tifway II Bermudagrass overseeded with perennial ryegrass; Rough: Tifway II Bermudagrass overseeded with perennial ryegrass 3″; Greens: 6,580 sq.ft average featuring Dominator Bentgrass.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Tom Fazio designs include:

  • Atunyote GC – Turning Stone Championship 2007-10.
  • Caves Valley GC – BMW Championship 2021.
  • Congaree GC – Palmetto Championship 2021.
  • Conway Farms GC – BMW Championship 2013, 2015, 2017.
  • Corales GC – Corales Championship.
  • Eagle Point – Wells Fargo Championship 2017.
  • Raptor Course Greyhawk GC – Fry’ Open 2008/09.
  • Shadow Creek GC – CJ Cup 2020.

Fazio has also had re-design input into:

  • Riviera Country Club – Genesis Invitational.
  • Quail Hollow – Wells Fargo Championship 2016, 2018, 2019 & 2017 PGA Championship.
  • Merion – 2013 U.S. Open.
  • Oakmont – 2016 U.S. Open.
  • Seaside Course at Sea Island – RSM Classic

Course Overview: We take a step into the unknown this week with the CJ Cup taking place outside of South Korea for the second year in a row. We stay in Las Vegas for the second consecutive week and year (in terms of this tournament), but the CJ Cup has moved from Shadow Creek to The Summit Club. Whilst Shadow Creek ranks as the best course in Sin City, Summit cracks the top 2, with this course being the centrepiece of a high-end residential development. So what do the players face this week?

The Summit Club is a Tom Fazio design. So in recent PGA Tour history think Caves Valley GC which hosted the BMW Championship in August just past, Congaree GC which hosted the Palmetto Championship in June, Shadow Creek which hosted this tournament 12 months ago and to a lesser degree the Corales Championship, which is a regular alternate event, set by the coast in the Dominican Republic. Conway Farms GC, which hosted the 2013, 2015 and 2017 BMW Championships, is also a Fazio design.

His design input has also been seen in restorations regularly used by the PGA Tour. Think Rivera Country Club (Genesis Invitational), Quail Hollow (2017 PGA Championship & Wells Fargo Championship) and the Seaside Course at Sea Island (RSM Classic). So from a Fazio angle we have plenty to go on and I would advise you to look at our Fazio 5 year results variable within this week’s predictor model.

The Summit Club is framed within a desert valley with views of the central Las Vegas strip and Red Rock Canyon. In my opinion it differs from Shadow Creek quite significantly – a course that Tiger Woods described as visually similar to a Carolina golf course. Instead this feels far more like a desert design, with each hole framed with lush turf, within a stark desert outline. For me, with uneven fairways and masses of bunkering, this course shares visual similarities with the Stadium Course at PGA West which is the host course for The American Express. But it’s worth noting that the Stadium Course is shorter, far tighter off the tee and features overseeded Bermudagrass greens – we are dealing with Bentgrass greens again this week.

The Summit also features generously wide driving areas. Dangerous when the course is a Par 72 measuring only 7,431 yards, plus let’s not forget that Las Vegas is at 2,000 feet above sea level. Thin air leads to the ball travelling further 5-6% further in Las Vegas, and that is the thing with this set-up, it appears to be easy for players of this stature, after all it’s designed for amateurs with deep pockets. Greens are 1,000 square feet on average larger than what we saw at Shadow Creek last year, with green complexes which in the main are elevated.

Look at the scorecard and Summit could provide a considerable haul of eagles and birdies across the opening 7 holes. The 1st is a driveable par-4 as is the 5th. The 3rd and 6th are reachable par-5s. Throw in a 138 yard par-3 (the 7th) a 430 yard par-4 (4th) and another moderate length par-3 (2nd) and a hot start is more than accessible.

The back-9 is longer but still features a driveable par-4 (12th), and a couple of reachable par-5s (14th and signature 18th). Unless the wind howls expect the typical PGA Tour birdie barrage.

cj cup tips

Winners: Hosted at Shadow Creek: 2020: Jason Kokrak (-20); Hosted at Nine Bridges: 2019: Justin Thomas (-20); 2018: Brooks Koepka (-21); 2017: Justin Thomas (-9).

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Sungjae Im, Collin Morikawa and Marc Leishman.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Las Vegas, Nevada is here.

We stay in the Summerlin district of Las Vegas this week, so we know exactly what the weather has been like over the past week or so. If anything playing conditions look better for the CJ Cup than they were for the Shriners Children’s Open. Temperatures will break 20 degrees Celsius throughout with a very pleasant 25 degrees on Sunday. And where wind and bizarrely rain (in the desert) was a feature of Friday at the Shriners, this week looks astrodome like. Expect low scoring.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Northern Trust / Czech Masters which includes PGA Tour and European Tour events. Players rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

  • Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Sam Burns; 2) Viktor Hovland; 3) Sungjae Im / Brooks Koepka / Justin Thomas; 6) Rory McIlroy; 7) Maverick McNealy; 8) K.H. Lee; 9) Aaron Wise; 10) Tony Finau / Xander Schauffele; 12) Paul Casey / Emiliano Grillo; 14) Justin Rose; 15) Max Homa / Erik van Rooyen; 17) Abraham Ancer / Sergio Garcia / Keith Mitchell; 20) Hideki Matsuyama; 21) Louis Oosthuizen; 22) Chris Kirk / Ryan Palmer; 24) Xander Schauffele; 25) Harry Higgs.
  • Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Justin Rose; 2) Justin Thomas; 3) Louis Oosthuizen; 4) Shane Lowry / Cameron Smith; 6) Tony Finau / Russell Henley; 8) Xander Schauffele; 9) Max Homa; 10) Talor Gooch; 11) Adam Scott; 12) Sam Burns / Keegan Bradley; 14) Tommy Fleetwood / Viktor Hovland / Jason Kokrak; 17) Tom Hoge / Marc Leishman; 19) Paul Casey / Jhonattan Vegas; 21) Lucas Glover; 22) Sungjae Im; 23) Harold Varner III; 24) Joaquin Niemann; 25) Collin Morikawa.
  • Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Alex Noren; 2) Jordan Spieth; 3) Harry Higgs / Aaron Wise; 5) Kevin Na / Louis Oosthuizen; 7) Cameron Smith; 8) Rory McIlroy; 9) Sungjae Im; 10) Harris English; 11) Matt Jones; 12) Brian Harman; 13) Harold Varner III; 14) Tommy Fleetwood; 15) Tony Finau / Talor Gooch; 17) Tyrrell Hatton; 18) Mackenzie Hughes; 19) Webb Simpson; 20) Brooks Koepka / Keith Mitchell; 22) Sam Burns / Charl Schwartzel; 24) Max Homa; 25) Dustin Johnson / Shane Lowry / Joaquin Niemann.
  • Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Justin Rose; 2) Justin Thomas; 3) Sungjae Im; 4) Sam Burns / Aaron Wise; 6) Louis Oosthuizen; 7) Shane Lowry; 8) Cameron Smith; 9) Tony Finau / Tommy Fleetwood; 11) Max Homa; 12) Russell Henley; 13) Talor Gooch / Xander Schauffele; 15) Viktor Hovland; 16) Rory McIlroy / Harold Varner III; 18) Brooks Koepka; 19) Alex Noren; 20) Paul Casey; 21) Marc Leishman / Joaquin Niemann; 23) Tom Hoge / K.H. Lee; 25) Harris English / Hideki Matsuyama.
  • Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Dustin Johnson; 2) Mackenzie Hughes; 3) Rory McIlroy; 4) Harold Varner III; 5) Tony Finau; 6) Alex Noren; 7) Cameron Smith; 8) Justin Thomas; 9) Xander Schauffele; 10) Cameron Smith; 11) Marc Leishman; 12) Charl Schwartzel; 13) Sungjae Im / Adam Scott; 15) Shane Lowry; 16) Kevin Na / Erik van Rooyen; 18) Stewart Cink / Sergio Garcia; 20) Abraham Ancer; 21) Patrick Reed; 22) Jordan Spieth; 23) Branden Grace; 24) Harris English / Tommy Fleetwood / Charley Hoffman / Jason Kokrak / Robert Streb.
  • Top 25 SG Total: 1) Justin Rose; 2) Tommy Fleetwood; 3) Justin Thomas; 4) Sam Burns; 5) Harold Varner III; 6) Alex Noren / Tony Finau; 8) Sungjae Im; 9) Shane Lowry; 10) Cameron Smith / Aaron Wise; 12) Rory McIlroy; 13) Louis Oosthuizen / Xander Schauffele; 15) Talor Gooch / Marc Leishman; 17) Dustin Johnson; 18) Viktor Hovland; 19) Charley Hoffman; 20) Kevin Na; 21) Sergio Garcia / Tom Hoge / Max Homa / Maverick McNealy / Joaquin Niemann / Webb Simpson / Cameron Tringale.

Winners & Prices: 2020: Kokrak 100/1; 2019: Thomas 15/2; 2018: Koepka 10/1; 2017: Thomas 8/1. For a full summary of winner’s odds on the PGA Tour since 2010 click here.

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 4 CJ Cup winners:

  • 2020 – Jason Kokrak: Round 1: 14th, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 2nd.
  • 2019 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: 9th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2018 – Brooks Koepka: Round 1: 11th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2017 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 1st.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the last 4 winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:

  • 2020 – Jason Kokrak: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 6 back, Round 3: 3 back.
  • 2019 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 2 ahead, Round 3: level.
  • 2018 – Brooks Koepka: Round 1: 1 3 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 3 ahead.
  • 2017 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: 3 ahead, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: level..

Incoming form of winners since 2017:

  • Jason Kokrak: MC Shriners/17th U.S. Open/6th BMW/13th Northern Trust.
  • Justin Thomas: 4th Safeway/9th Tour Champ/1st BMW/12th Northern Trust.
  • Brooks Koepka: 7th Dunhill Links/26th Tour Champ/19th BMW/12th Dell.
  • Justin Thomas: 17th CIMB/2nd Tour Champ/47th BMW/1st Dell.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2017. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

  • 2020 – Tyrrell Hatton -7/65 – Group 5 of 13 – 10th Tee – 33/1
  • 2019 – Byeong Hun An -8/64 – Group 12 of 13 – 1st Tee – 45/1
  • 2018 – Chez Reavie -4/68 – Group 8 of 13 – 10th Tee – 80/1
  • 2017 – Justin Thomas -9/63 – Group 4 of 13 – 10th Tee – 12/1

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

  • 7 – Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose.
  • 6 – Dustin Johnson.
  • 5 – Jordan Spieth.
  • 4 – Jason Day, Kevin Na, Webb Simpson, Justin Thomas.
  • 3 – Lucas Glover, Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Scott.
  • 2 – Keegan Bradley, Stewart Cink, Rickie Fowler, Sergio Garcia, Brian Harman, Chris Kirk, Jason Kokrak, Marc Leishman, Patrick Reed, Xander Schauffele, Jhonattan Vegas.
  • 1 – Tony Finau, Charley Hoffman, Kevin Kisner, K.H. Lee, Joaquin Niemann, Louis Oosthuizen, Ian Poulter, Charl Schwartzel, Kevin Streelman.

We have little to go on this week on a new golf course, but the CJ Cup is into its fifth renewal this week. In Justin Thomas (2017), Brooks Koepka (2018) and Justin Thomas (2019), we have winners that have won at 8/1, 10/1 and 15/2 respectively. Jason Kokrak broke that short price mould last year when he won his first PGA Tour title at 100/1.

Both Thomas and Koepka were within the top 5 in the Official World Golf Ranking and had seen action in the new PGA Tour season which starts in September. Jason Kokrak was 53rd in the OWGR.  In 2017 Justin Thomas had finished 17th at the CIMB Classic when defending, in 2018 Brooks Koepka had finished 7th at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and 2019 saw Justin Thomas capture his second CJ Cup title after finishing 4th at the Safeway Open. 2020 saw Kokrak finish 17th at the U.S. Open and miss the cut the week before at the Shriners Open.

Thomas and Koepka wins all came off the back of recent wins in the 2017 Dell Technologies (September), 2018 PGA Championship (August) and 2019 BMW Championship (September).

My selections are as follows:

Collin Morikawa 2pts EW 16/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes

So the trend of looking for a top 5 player in the world who’s won a tournament within their past 6 appearances isn’t a bad strategy for the CJ Cup. Justin Thomas set the template in the inaugural 2017 CJ Cup, something he again achieved in 2019. Prior wins had come in the Deutsche Bank (2017) and BMW Championship (2019).

In between, Brooks Koepka won in 2018, grabbing the World Number 1 spot into the bargain. His previous victory had come in early August at the PGA Championship. 12 months ago I extrapolated this trend with Xander Schauffele. He was World Number 8 at the time and despite not winning a tournament in 2020, he had shot the lowest 72-hole total across the Tour Championship at East Lake. The result being that Xander and Jason Kokrak went head-to-head throughout the tournament and my 12/1 win-only bet on Schauffele came up just short as Kokrak beat Schauffele into runner-up spot. You know me and runner-up finishes!

This week I’m starting the card with Collin Morikawa. After a poor spell for Collin in the FedEx Cup Playoffs when he was playing with a back injury, the 5-time PGA Tour winner, which includes 2 Majors, really hit his straps at the Ryder Cup. 3 and a half points from 4 appearances was outstanding and his partnership with Dustin Johnson produced 3 dominant victories. He also halved his Sunday singles with Viktor Hovland and his 5-iron to 3 feet on the par-3 17th hole effectively clinched the Ryder Cup for Team USA. And whilst Dustin Johnson was 5 from 5 across the action at Whistling Straits, Morikawa equalled Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm for points earned on his Ryder Cup debut.

Look at some of the estimated numbers behind his Ryder Cup performances and you see some fascinating scoring statistics. -18 for the week in terms of scoring was second only to Dustin Johnson, and when you look at Birdie or Better Conversion per hole, Morikawa topped the 24 players on show at 39%. For the record, Dustin was at 34% with Daniel Berger at 33%. In summary, Morikawa should be in great spirits entering the CJ Cup.

Collin’s maiden PGA Tour victory came in the desert and at altitude at the 2019 Barracuda Championship played in Reno, Nevada, and when you look at his victories he’s actually a sneaky scorer. He won the 2020 Workday Charity Open at -19/269 played at Muirfield Village and his WGC triumph earlier this year came at -18/270 on a course which I think is visually similar to The Summit Club. Talking of the host course, Morikawa is a house owner and club member and uses this facility as his practice facility. That guarantees very little on the PGA Tour, but at this price I’m taking Morikawa at the very top of the betting market. RESULT: T2

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Marc Leishman 1pt EW 50/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Paddy Power

Coming off a 4th and a 3rd on the PGA Tour, I’ll take Australian Marc Leishman at a very backable price.

Aussies have a habit of hitting their straps in the Fall part of the season and a look at Leishman’s results CV highlights 9th at the WGC- HSBC Champions (November 2014), 1st at the Nedbank Challenge on the European Tour (December 2015), 5th at the CIMB Classic (October 2016), 2nd at the CJ Cup (October 2017), 1st at the CIMB Classic (October 2018) and 3rd at the Safeway Open (September 2019). He was also 13th at last year’s November Masters when horribly out of form. This autumn upside is also very much apparent when you look at Cameron Smith, who we hit each-way at 80/1 at last November’s Masters.

So it’s following a fairly predictable trend to see Leishman spike right now. Across my 8-week Strokes Gained trackers he ranks 17th for Approach, 21st for Tee to Green, 11th for Putting and 15th for Strokes Gained Current Form. Missing out on the Tour Championship can motivate elite players and Marc has ‘back-doored’ consecutive top-4 finishes across the Fortinet Championship (Silverado) and last week at the Shriners Children’s Open (TPC Summerlin), where he topped the birdie charts with 28.

Fascinatingly 3 of Leishman’s 6 highest-level solo tournament victories have come in no-cut events and Marc also has a strong record at Tom Fazio designs. 5th (2016) and 4th (2019) at Riviera Country Club; Marc also won the 2017 BMW Championship at Conway Farms. He can score with the best of them and it was encouraging to see him rank 6th for Total Driving and 11th for Ball Striking last week at Summerlin. RESULT: T38

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Justin Rose 1pt EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports

Justin Rose has been in the OWGR top 50 since 2010. A win at the Memorial Tournament held at Muirfield Village in June saw him grab a spot back at the top table of golf, a spot he had relinquished in August 2009. Since that win at ‘Jack’s Place’, Rose has been an ever-present in the top 50, but that has been seriously under threat since a missed cut at the U.S. Open in June.

Results have been inconsistent since the Covid era, with top-10s at Majors backed-up with very little. But things are seemingly improving, undoubtedly spurred on by the close of Team Europe’s Ryder Cup selection. 10th at the Wyndham Championship doesn’t tell the whole story. In the joint lead on the back-9 Sunday, Justin bogeyed 2 of the last 5 holes to miss out on the 6-man play off and on a FedEx Cup Playoff spot by a single place. Ouch! From a Strokes Gained perspective, 15th for Tee to Green and 21st for Putting were encouraging numbers, as was 5th for Greens in Regulation.

We last saw Justin at the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth – indeed I followed him for a few holes – and under the gun pressure-wise to deliver for Padraig Harrington, he finished 6th at Wentworth. 2nd for Strokes Gained on Approach and 4th for Tee to Green, Justin said it was great to feel the Sunday nerves kick in across both the Wyndham and the BMW PGA. But the case in point is that he still needs to deliver, to keep his coveted top 50 OWGR spot, and I think The Summit could be a decent spot for him.

4th at Riviera Country Club and 2nd at Conway Farms in 2017, Justin was also 3rd at Quail Hollow in 2019, so he likes Tom Fazio designs and renovations. And 3rd at PGA West way back in 2007, plus a litany of top results in neighbouring California, highlight a player who’s comfortable on the west coast of the United States. Bentgrass greens have always been his favourite and if he continues to drive the ball well, I can see him hovering around the top of the leaderboard. RESULT: T57

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Sergio Garcia 1pt EW 55/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Now we have seen a number of players in the CJ Cup contend and win across the past 2 years, with Official World Golf Rankings in and around the top 50. 2019 saw Byeong-Hun An (48th OWGR), Tyrrell Hatton (49th OWGR) and Cameron Smith (51st OWGR) all hit the each-way payout spots at 50/1, 50/1 and 40/1 respectively. Jason Kokrak took that to a new level 12 months ago when he won at 100/1 – he was ranked 53rd in the OWGR. Joaquin Niemann (46th OWGR) and Bubba Watson (59th OWGR) both placed for this column at 66/1 and 100/1.

In this OWGR range in 2021, I like Sergio Garcia. Similar to Justin Rose, the Spaniard must be motivated to do well for his year-end OWGR ranking. Garcia has been a year-end ever-present in the top 50 since 2011 and at the moment ranks at a vulnerable 45th. 6th at the BMW Championship and 10th at the Tour Championship (across 72 holes), Sergio was one of the positives from a European perspective to come out of the Ryder Cup.  3 points from his combination with Jon Rahm was exceptional and he certainly carried his weight on the team, with a 24% Birdie or Better Conversion per hole compared to the World Number 1s 29%. He missed the cut at the Sanderson Farms Championship on the number a week later, but at 41 years of age that was to be expected after a resource-sapping Ryder Cup the week before.

5th, 20th and 15th for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, on Approach and Tee to Green at Caves Valley (BMW Championship), he was 2nd, 14th and 10th for the same categories at East Lake (Tour Championship). Even more eye-catching, he was 8th for Strokes Gained Putting at Caves Valley and was 13th for the same category at East Lake. Will be motivated to go well this week in my opinion. RESULT: T25

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Alex Noren 1pt EW 100/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Paddy Power

We have talked about Alex Noren for a period of time now on the Golf Betting System podcast. From an agronomy perspective, the Swede has always done his best work on Bentgrass or Bent/Poa mix greens. 10 European Tour victories have all come on non Bermudagrass or Paspalum putting surfaces.

The 39 year-old, who has a Jupiter, Florida base in the United States, also has a portent for shooting low scores on the right surface. Victories at -17/263, -18/266 and -20/264 on his European CV are interesting, as is the fact that he has won, at altitude, at Crans-sur-Sierre (Sergio Garcia’s record there is also first rate).

And in Noren we have a player who’s finding his feet on the PGA Tour again. 13th at The Memorial, 4th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, 4th at the Northern Trust and 9th at the BMW Championship since the start of June are strong results, with his FedEx Cup Playoff exploits arriving with totals of -15/269 and -18/270 respectively. 27th at the BMW PGA Championship and 12th at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship over on the European Tour highlight a player who’s in rather good nick. That can be seen in my 8-week Strokes Gained tracker where in this field he ranks 19th for Tee to Green, 6th for Putting and 6th for Current Form.

At 60th in the OWGR, he’s very much on the outside looking in as he has no 2022 Major exemptions whatsoever, something which would have been taken care of if he had made an 8 footer for par on the 72nd hole at Caves Valley. That would have qualified him for the Tour Championship, but instead he dropped to 33rd in the FedEx Cup standings. However he’s playing well, motivated, plus 14th spot at PGA West (2020 The American Express), 21st at TPC Scottsdale (2018 Phoenix Open) and 9th at Old Greenwood (2020 Barracuda Championship), highlight a Swede who can mix it in the United States desert. RESULT: T59

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:20BST 11.10.21 but naturally subject to fluctuation.