Dutch Open Tips 2022

The second career Major start for Oliver Bekker, and his first for 5 years, didn’t quite go to plan last week at Southern Hills with a Friday exit, but that doesn’t preclude him from bouncing straight back this week at this considerably lower level.

Despite the distraction of his impending Trans-Atlantic flight last week, the 37 year-old still managed a 4^th place at the Soudal Open on his last DP World Tour start to reward each-way backers – disappointment aside, gaining Major experience is all part of the learning curve, even for a 7-time winner on his home Sunshine Tour.

With no course experience from last year to refer to and only a 35^th place finish in Holland on the Challenge Tour last year in terms of local form, we’re going to need to rely on the assumption that the Pretoria man suits this week’s test. 20^th for SG Off the Tee and 23^rd SG Tee to Green ties in nicely with how Matti Schmid navigated his way into contention here last year, and 5^th for Birdie Average at approaching 5 red numbers per round is the kind of numbers we’re looking for here in my view.

Bekker also currently ties the lowest score on the DP World Tour for 2022 with the 62 that he produced at the Ras al Khaimah Classic in February, and to prove it was no fluke he’s subsequently shot 63 twice and has the scoring power to succeed on this scoreable Bernardus Golf setup.

Of course, the biggest issue for Oliver may well be lifting himself after last week’s missed cut, however his form following a weekend off since the start of 2021 reads 11/28/11/20/9/10 so all isn’t lost. In general he’s bounced back well on his next start of late and a continuation of the DP World Tour form that’s seen him notch three top-4 finishes in his last 6 starts at this level isn’t out of the question. RESULT: MC

One player who’s showing signs of increasing comfort on the DP World Tour is Hennie du Plessis and in this relatively weak field he could well have another stab at his breakthrough title this week.

Twice a winner on the Sunshine Tour in 2017 and 2018, the South African is quite rightly plying his trade at a higher level when he can nowadays and him taking advantage of his sponsor’s invite this week wouldn’t be a shock given what we’ve seen of late.

7^th at the Joburg Open and 3^rd at the SA Open in his homeland to end 2021 was noteworthy and he came closest yet to winning his maiden title at this upper level when leading for 3 days at the MyGolfLife Open, before a final round 72 meant he had to settle for a tie for 6^th. That’s all part of the learning curve though and since that point he’s racked up finishes of 3^rd and 6^th in the Spanish double-header at the end of last month, closing with rounds of 67 and 64 as he’s increasing got to grips with being in contention.

15^th at the Soudal Open on his last start has kept a lid on his price to a degree, however he was Strokes Gained positive in every category and his typically strong Off the Tee game was once again evident, ranking 12^th in that SG category. 5^th for putting average on the predominantly Bentgrass greens of Rinkven International is also a positive and something you might expect from a South African who will have spend his formative years playing on the surface.

Rounds of 62, 64 (twice) and 65 (twice) since the middle of March demonstrates the scoring power that du Plessis possesses, and with little course experience from the rest of the field this week, the Gauteng man shouldn’t be at much of a disadvantage in that respect on course debut. RESULT: T56

Of the young talent emerging on the DP World Tour, Matti Schmid is one of the most exciting. Winner of the European Amateur title twice in 2019 and 2020, the German went on to become leading amateur at the 2021 Open Championship before turning professional.

19^th at the ISPS Handa World Invitational on his second start as a pro was impressive enough, however it was here at Bernardus Golf last autumn that he showed his potential by finishing 2^nd to runaway leader Kristoffer Broberg on an invite. That effort earned the 24 year-old a start the following week at the Dunhill Links where he finished 9^th; combined with an 11^th place finish in Mallorca that was enough for him to earn his playing rights for 2022 in what’s been a whirlwind few months.

While we’re still forming a view on his true strengths and weaknesses, it’s fair to say that Matti has produced his best golf on lower-scoring tests. Of course here at Bernardus in September was a case in point, however 3^rd in March at the Steyn City Championship came at -19, despite a closing round of 71 which was pretty pedestrian compared to the rounds of 69/65/64 that had preceded it.

That third round 64 matched his Saturday effort of a fortnight before in Kenya which saw him in 4^th place heading into Sunday, and he produced the same score again in the second round of the Soudal Open on his last start which gave him a share of the lead heading into the weekend.

SG Off the Tee is Schmid’s biggest strength, which could prove to be a formidable weapon this week after early rain in the week has softened the course, and 5^th for GIR on his last start is encouraging as he looks to go one better than last year’s effort here. RESULT: MC

4 years Matti Schmid’s senior, Yannik Paul is the second promising German on my team this week at a backable mid-range price.

Based out of Arizona and having spent the first year or so of his professional career on the Canadian circuit where he recorded a 5^th place finish and 4 further top-20s, Paul graduated from the European Challenge Tour at the first attempt last year, finishing 9^th on the Road to Mallorca rankings courtesy of 7 top-10 finishes including 2^nd at the season-ending Challenge Tour Grand Final.

Yannik has taken the step up to DP World Tour level in his stride, becoming an increasingly prominent name on leaderboards and recording top-10 finishes at the Joburg Open, ISPS Handa Championship in Spain and most recently last time out at the Soudal Open where he finished runner-up to Sam Horsfield and impressed greatly.

3^rd and 7^th for GIR on his last 2 starts, which includes the British Masters before his Belgian effort, 6^th and 3^rd for Scrambling over the same 2 weeks shows he’s got short game as well as long game ability. 5^th for both SG Off the Tee and SG Tee to Green at the Belfry was bettered by rankings of 4^th for both SG Approach and SG Tee to Green at Rinkven last time out and seeing him continue his fine form this week would be no surprise.

Only a year’s worth of history for the DP World Tour players here at Bernardus Golf puts Paul at less of a disadvantage than other courses on the circuit, and he can draw on his only other start in Holland when he finished 8^th at the B-NL Challenge Trophy last August. RESULT: MC

At a longer price, Sebastian Soderberg appeals on a course where birdies will need to be made courtesy of a strong tee-to-green game.

Consistency isn’t the Swede’s greatest strength – incoming 5-event form of MC/MC/MC/2/MC is testament to that – and as such he often resides further down the stats pages than many of his peers, yet when it all comes together the 31 year-old is very capable and very good.

5 of his 6 career wins as a professional have come at lower levels, however his 2019 win at Crans-sur-Sierre on the then European Tour will always stick in the memory as he overcame 4 other competitors in the eventual play-off, including former OWGR number 1 Rory Mcilroy. When it clicks, watch out.

2^nd at the British Masters a little over a fortnight ago was another example of his game coming together – Strokes Gained positive in every category, he improved by more than 15 Strokes Gained from a Tee-to-Green perspective over the previous week’s missed cut at the Catalunya Championship.

In truth, Soderberg probably prefers things a touch easier than it was at The Belfry, and that may well help as he approaches a far less stringent test here in Holland. 24 birdies on his way to a top-20 finish in Thailand on the Asian Tour in March is more like what he’ll need here this week and when red numbers are the currency there’s plenty of evidence that the Gothenburg man can deliver.

21 birdies at the Ras al Khaimah Championship (25^th place overall) this year followed 2021 efforts at the Dubai Championship (23 birdies, 31^st place overall), Mallorca Golf Open (20 birdies, 2^nd), Dunhill Links (20 birdies, 39^th) and Kenya Savannah Classic (26 birdies, 26^th). Add to that birdie hauls of 26 & 25 the autumn before at the Golf in Dubai Championship & Scottish Championship and we have a player who can score heavily enough to get in the mix here. RESULT: T5

Finally, if we wind back to the summer of 2020 when golf was just getting back on its feet following lockdown, we find Sam Horsfield winning his maiden European Tour title at Forest of Arden before Justin Thomas became the next name in the record books, capturing the WGC Fed Ex St Jude a few hours later in the US.

By way of parallels, Sam Horsfield won the Soudal Open before Justin Thomas triumphed at Southern Hills on Sunday, so if lightning is going to strike twice (or thrice) then surely Andy Sullivan, who won the next title in that 2020 sequence at Hanbury Manor, is the winner here this week.

A little far-fetched I agree, however golf betting is littered with these odd quirks and stranger things have (probably!) happened. Nevertheless, there’s a little more substance to my thought process than simply reading the 2020 schedule and putting two plus two together, you’ll be glad to hear.

Firstly, that 7-stroke win at the English Championship at Hanbury Manor came at a massive 27-under par, rubber-stamping his credentials at birdie-fests like this having previously won the Portugal Masters at 23-under. When he’s playing well and scoring well, the 35 year-old can simply blow fields of this quality away, a fact that his 9-stroke victory at Vilamoura underlines.

Secondly, and perhaps most importantly, the Nuneaton man may just have turned his back on a wretched run of form that had seen him miss 6 cuts from 9 to start 2022 and record a best finish of 47^th before his 9^th place finish at the Soudal Open on his last start. 4^th for SG Putting was noteworthy for a player who thrives on momentum ahead of another likely low-scoring affair, and he seems much, much happier with his progress of late on Social Media. RESULT: MC