Paul Williams

Paul Williams' FedEx Open de France Tips 2025

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Another enthralling DP World Tour event at Wentworth ended with our 35/1 selection Alex Noren edging out a resurgent Adrien Saddier on the first hole of the eventual play-off. That’s two impressive wins on English soil in the space of a month for Noren, who now jets off to Bethpage Black as one of Luke Donald’s vice-captains for next week’s Ryder Cup.

With the PGA Tour taking a breather ahead of the main event in a week’s time, the FedEx Open de France takes centre stage this week – albeit without the vast majority of the stars who graced us last week in Surrey. That said, Corey Conners, Ryan Fox, Thomas Detry, Minwoo Lee and Harry Hall are all OWGR top-50 players in attendance and it’s two of those, Hall and Connors, who contest favouritism at around 11/1.

Before we go into the detail surrounding the Open de France, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,600 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

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Course Overview. As one of the oldest national Opens, the Open de France has had a number of venues in its time, although since 2001 the event has been hosted at Le Golf National. Not so this year though – and well worth noting if you’re using the event stats this week – as we move temporarily to another track on the outskirts of Paris, Golf de Saint-Nom-La-Bretèche, as the regular host course undergoes some renovations.

This year’s host course is a 6,977 yard, Par 71 designed by Fred Hawtree and is a classical, parkland course that originally opened in 1959 and hosted two French Opens over the following decade, with Spaniard Ramon Sota winning in 1965 before Jean Garaialde delighted the home crowd 4 years later with a French victory.

Of slightly more relevance, Saint-Nom-La-Bretèche also hosted the now defunct Trophée Lancôme between 1970 and 2003 on the European Tour, with a whole host of stars winning the title here including Seve Ballesteros (4 times), Arnold Palmer and Gary Player to name but a few. Retief Goosen won his second title here in the last event in 2003 by 4 shots at 18-under par, and in general somewhere around the low- to mid-teens under par has been enough for victory here in the past.

Fairways are tree-lined although not encroachingly so, and although there’s some water and strategically placed bunkering on the course, the main defence appears to be the fast, sloping greens which will require a deft touch to master over the four days.

The three Par-5s are all attackable at 547, 509 and 541 yards plus there are 4 sub-400 yard Par-4s, however given that scoring hasn’t historically got out of control here, it suggests there’s an element of strategy required. For me this feels like a positional, second-shot golf course where accurate approach play and good putting will be rewarded.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Open de France that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.

As mentioned above, the tournament has moved away from its long-term home at Le Golf National this year, so previous results should be considered accordingly: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Winners & Prices. 2024, Dan Bradbury, 175/1; 2023: Ryo Hisatsune, 100/1; 2022: Guido Migliozzi, 80/1; 2019: Nicolas Colsaerts, 100/1; 2018: Alex Noren, 16/1; 2017: Tommy Fleetwood, 22/1; 2016: Thongchai Jaidee, 66/1; 2015: Bernd Wiesberger, 33/1; 2014: Graeme McDowell, 12/1; 2013: Graeme McDowell, 25/1; 2012: Marcel Siem, 70/1; 2011: Thomas Levet, 140/1; 2010: Miguel Angel Jimenez, 80/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the region is here.

Conditions will improve throughout the week with sunshine, light winds, and temperatures peaking around 30 Centigrade/86 Fahrenheit on Friday. There’s a hint that some wet weather could blow through the region later on Saturday and into Sunday accompanied by a dip in temperatures, although at this stage there’s little more than a 5-10mph breeze forecast at any stage.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Stats from 2003 are patchy at best, however eventual winner Retief Goosen ranked 4th for total putts on the week at 110 putts, whilst runner-up Paul McGinley was 6th for Driving Accuracy and 1st for GIR on the week.

Goosen’s 18-under total was 4 better than McGinley with both men shooting 9-under on the Par-4s and only 5- and 2-under on the Par-5s respectively, suggesting that finesse can triumph over raw power here. Long-hitting Nicolas Colsaerts is the exception to that rule, shooting 11-under on the 12 looks at Par-5s, however he was one of just two players to reach double-digits under par for the long holes. How the course holds up to the modern golfer remains to be seen.

Incoming Form: Form-wise there’s a really mixed bag when looking at French Open winners in recent years. Dan Bradbury hadn’t recorded a top-10 finish since late June prior to winning this event last year, although he had shown glimpses of form at Wentworth and at the Spanish Open, sitting inside the top-14 at halfway at each event before fading. A missed cut at the Dunhill Links the week before could easily have been ignored too in hindsight.

The year before, Ryo Hisatsune had been playing solid golf over the summer months with 5 top-15 finishes from 7 starts since July, however missed cuts in Ireland and at Wentworth would before winning this would have put plenty of punters off the scent.

Guido Migliozzi’s solitary top 10 finish in 2022 had come in Holland back in May, and he’d missed 11 cuts in total in the year before finding a little more consistency in the weeks leading up to his victory 3 years ago. Nicolas Colsaerts is another case in point from 2019 with a solitary top-20 finish to his name in his previous 11 starts. That effort was on his penultimate start though at the Spanish Open where he closed with a round of 64, so there was a little bit of positivity to latch onto.

Alex Noren was clearly in good nick in 2018 having recorded 4 consecutive top-25 finishes, as was Tommy Fleetwood who’d finished 4th at the US Open and 6th at the BMW International Open immediately prior to his win; Jaidee hadn’t recorded a single top-10 finish in 2016 prior to winning; Wiesberger had finished 27th in Germany the week before and 2nd in Ireland, however in between those results were 4 missed cuts; McDowell improved on his 6th place finish in Ireland on his previous start before defending his title and was in the middle of his win-or-bust run when he arrived here the year before with form of MC/1/MC/1/MC/MC/MC; Marcel Siem was in decent nick with 4 top-10s to his name in 2012 prior to victory, whereas Tomas Levet hadn’t recorded a top 10 all season prior to his emotional (and for him painful) victory the year before.

Jimenez had missed 3 cuts in his last 5 attempts before his triumph in 2010; Kaymer was coming into form in 2009 when he won, however he’d missed the cut the week before; Larrazabal was a shock outsider who came through qualifying in 2008; Storm had managed a couple of top 10s in his last 10 starts in 2007; Bickerton had missed 4 of 5 cuts in 2006 and Remesy’s successful defence in 2005 came off the back of a very poor season. All in all a very mixed bag.

  • 2024, Dan Bradbury: MC/MC/10/MC/MC/23/63/MC/MC/35/39/MC
  • 2023, Ryo Hisatsune: 24/15/8/58/10/26/14/13/MC/MC
  • 2022, Guido Migliozzi: MC/72/MC/18/38/35/13/34
  • 2019, Nicolas Colsaerts: 58/53/MC/MC/57/MC/17/64
  • 2018, Alex Noren: 36/3/MC/MC/17/3/23/25
  • 2017, Tommy Fleetwood: 39/MC/2/41/MC/MC/4/6
  • 2016, Thongchai Jaidee: WD/14/28/33/57/MC/MC/31/52/38
  • 2015, Bernd Wiesberger: MC/22/33/34/MC/MC/2/MC/MC/27
  • 2014, Graeme McDowell: 5/46/9/10/MC/23/62/24/28/6
  • 2013, Graeme McDowell: 9/3/45/MC/1/MC/1/MC/MC/MC
  • 2012, Marcel Siem: 2/17/52/29/MC/12/7/33/6/57
  • 2011, Thomas Levet: 42/MC/MC/MC/11/17/16/64/MC/MC
  • 2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez: 52/12/17/17/MC/MC/8/MC/49

Event Form (back to 2010):  Since 2010, event form of the winners is as follows, although as noted a change in venue this year should be considered accordingly:

  • 2024, Dan Bradbury: MC
  • 2023, Ryo Hisatsune: Debut
  • 2022, Guido Migliozzi: MC
  • 2019, Nicolas Colsaerts: 23/53/MC/54/MC/11/11/59/MC/22/55/MC
  • 2018, Alex Noren: MC/MC/MC/78/37/15/MC/8/10
  • 2017, Tommy Fleetwood: MC/MC/MC/MC
  • 2016, Thongchai Jaidee:  MC/MC/36/31/MC/26/15/MC/2/10
  • 2015, Bernd Wiesberger: 62/47/13/18
  • 2014, Graeme McDowell: 18/4/MC/MC/13/MC/17/1
  • 2013, Graeme McDowell: 18/4/MC/MC/13/MC/17
  • 2012, Marcel Siem: DQ/23/8/21/72/66/WD/18/52
  • 2011, Thomas Levet: MC/MC/MC/50/15/34/68/MC/58/30/69/MC
  • 2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez: MC/23/23/8/55/MC/MC/66/25

With over two decades having passed since the Tour last visited this course, we’re going to have to rely on a fair amount of guesswork this week and less experienced players will undoubtedly have less of a disadvantage this week.

My Final FedEx Open de France Tips Are As Follows:

Martin Couvra 2pts EW 45/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes

With almost all of the big names from an eventful week at Wentworth not playing this week and Luke Donald’s Ryder Cup hopefuls now on the other side of the Atlantic, we’re presented with an altogether different challenge for this week’s Open de France compared to last week’s flagship spectacle.

At 49th in the OWGR, Harry Hall rates as this week’s favourite at a best-priced 11/1 at the time of writing, marginally ahead of Corey Conners who at 26th is the highest ranked player in the field. Both are undoubtedly capable of dropping to this grade and beating up the field, however as per my preamble this event hasn’t been overly kind to short-priced players, particularly of late, and with a change of venue to consider too I’m going for a more speculative approach this week.

The biggest question for me was whether to side with a resurgent Adrian Saddier this week, winner of this season’s Italian Open on another sub-7,000 yard par 71 and who’s led after 36, 54 and then 72 holes over his last 3 outings. Of course it took extra time for him to finally relent to Alex Noren at Wentworth, which was a massive improvement over his previous two efforts, however how much that will have taken out of him both physically and mentally is my biggest concern.

My preference is to go with compatriot Martin Couvra who was runner-up to Saddier in Italy and who’s had an outstanding rookie season on the DP World Tour and who, after a mid-season lull, may be finding form just in time for a final push as the season heads towards its climax.

A breakthrough win in Turkey back in May fulfilled the promise that the 22 year-old had shown with top-5 finishes in Bahrain, Qatar and at the Hainan Classic the week before his victory, and it was only an excellent performance from Saddier that prevented him from adding a second title to his CV at the end of June in Italy.

All of this has left the Frenchman on the cusp of securing a PGA Tour card for next season, although after a somewhat slow couple of months he’s down to 10th on the Race do Dubai and knows that the job is far from done just yet.

9th for SG Approach for the season could prove to be a good pointer for this week’s test when we do the post-mortem, and he was top 20 on both that count and SG Tee to Green last week in Wentworth on his way to a 13th place finish on BMW PGA debut.

A change in venue brings less experienced players into the equation this week in my view, and although the question remains as to how Couvra – or any of the current crop of French talent for that matter – fare this week in their home Open, the fact that he sat 4th after day 1 as a teenager playing this event for the first time back on 2022 suggests to me that he’ll approach this in fearless fashion.

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Ewen Ferguson 1.5pts EW 55/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes

A return to form last week for Ewen Ferguson has to be taken seriously given we know that he’s the type of player whose results tend to come in short, sharp bursts, and any sign of life should be pounced upon.

8th to halfway and 9th into Sunday at the Turkish Airlines Open in May was the precursor to a play-off defeat at the Soudal Open on his next start, which he followed up with 4th at the KLM Open a fortnight later before going off the boil again. A form line of 63/MC/MC/MC/MC/61/MC followed for the Scot prior to last week’s tie for 5th at Wentworth, and he can be fancied to keep the positive momentum going this week in France.

Three times a winner on the DP World Tour, victory at Parkland tracks at Galgorm Castle and in Munich carry topography and agronomy links into this week, and with winning totals of 12- and 18-under for those events respectively, the target score this week would seem to be right in the Glaswegian’s wheelhouse.

Positive in every Strokes Gained category last week, it was good to see a few putts dropping for the 28 year-old as that effort moved him inside the Race to Dubai top 50 and in with a great chance of making it to the Earth Course if he can keep the momentum going over the next few weeks.

Like most here this week, this will be Ferguson’s competitive debut on this course, however he’s featured heavily in the Open de France in the past, most notably when leading heading into the final day in 2023 before limping home in 76 strokes. He’s a winner again since that time, and with his Sunday 67 last week still fresh in the mind, perhaps he can put in a much better shift this time should he find himself in a similar spot.

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Guido Migliozzi 1pt EW 80/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Players who blow hot and cold always interest me when the price is right, and in Guido Migliozzi we have a very capable golfer flying a little under the radar this week.

4 times a winner at DP World Tour level, his 2022 victory at Le Golf National demonstrated just how good the 28 year-old is at his very best as he scythed his way through the field with an incredible closing round of 62 on that exacting test. We were on board when he won his most recent title last season in The Netherlands, overcoming Joe Dean and Marcus Kinhult in a play-off on another short Par 71 that was a new venue to most of the field.

Both of those wins were on exposed tracks, however we do have his 2019 Magical Kenya Open title as evidence that short, parkland tracks also work for the Italian, and his Belgian Knockout win later that same year holds enough correlation also not to be ignored.

A 2025 season that started so brightly with an 8th place finish at Rolex Series level in Dubai quickly deteriorated with 11 missed cuts from his next 14 starts, however the corner may well have been turned since returning from the Tour’s summer break. 41st at the Belfry, 13th at Crans, 68th at the K Club and then 24th at Wentworth all showed improvement and promise in various elements, not least in that he led the field for SG Approach last week in Surrey. If he can build on that performance in a far weaker field this week then he has a chance.

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Pablo Larrazabal 1pt EW 190/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Finally I’ll close with a speculative bet on Pablo Larrazabal who should find this track to his liking when he arrives here in Paris.

Like last week’s winner Alex Noren, Pablo has racked up a number of titles over the course of his career at DP World Tour level – 9 to be precise – and as one of the more decorated players in this week’s field he shouldn’t be dismissed as an also-ran, particularly on a short course that that could play to his strengths.

The Barcelona man has been largely off the boil since the birth of son Thiago last April, save for a play-off defeat in Bahrain earlier this year where he spurned a gilt-edged chance on the 72nd hole to win the title. 10th in India was his next best this season, however he caught the eye for the first two rounds last week at Wentworth, sitting in 5th place heading into the weekend before derailing on Saturday.

The 42 year-old is still hungry for success though and is grinding away in practice as he looks to make it double figures at this level, plus is working with a sports psychologist as he looks to make the most of his career in his forties. “I’ve been working as hard as I have ever done, and the results are coming,” he said last week, “I found what I’ve been working on on the range. You know, sometimes it’s tough to do the same swing on the range than when it matters on the golf course but you know, when you picture a shot and it comes exactly the same way as you plan it, it gives you confidence. I mean, the second shot coming to 18, you know, is a 10 out of 10 shot, and I hit a lot of 10 out of 10 shots yesterday and today.”

Statistically you’re always going to struggle to build a case for Pablo, particularly with the cuts that he’s missed this season, however he’s undoubtedly still capable of winning given that he’s done so 4 times in the past 3 years, and this title will hold no fears given this was his first trophy back in 2008 when he held off Monty by 4 strokes.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:50BST 15.9.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.