Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Genesis Scottish Open Tips 2026

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The build-up to the Open Championship kicks off in earnest this week in a high-class affair featuring 10 of the world’s top 15 players and 32 of the top 50 here at Renaissance Club in Scotland.

As per last year, this is a PGA Tour/DP World Tour co-sanctioned affair with roughly half the field allocated to both Tours and a smattering of invites and KPGA players completing the field. A Rolex Series event in terms of its stature, the $9m prize fund and 8,000 Race to Dubai ranking points will certainly grab the attention of all involved.

Following his success at last year’s Open Championship having changed his schedule to accommodate the Scottish Open 12 months ago, Scottie Scheffler is following the same path again this year and he heads the betting at a best-priced 5/1 at the time of writing. Rory McIlroy (9/1) and Jon Rahm (11/1) complete the trio of short prices at the top of the betting in what can only be described as a world-class field.

Before we go into the detail surrounding the Scottish Open, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube, and our hugely popular, +6,600 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

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You can read Liam Williams’ Power Rankings for the Genesis Scottish Open at bet365 News.

Course Overview. The Renaissance Club is this week’s host course for the eighth year running, which gives us the last seven years worth of renewals to review as a starting point.

Despite sitting on Scotland’s ‘Golf Coast’ in the stretch of land between Muirfield and Archerfield Links, the Renaissance Club isn’t an historic links track – instead it was manufactured from an old pine forest and opened in 2008.

Aesthetically it looks linksy on a stretch of land that’s famous for its links tracks and built to a brief to make it appear like it had been there for a century, however for the purists it’s more ‘links-like’ than pure links. Trees and an old wall complicate matters a little in that respect, balanced with 3 relatively new holes which flank the shore and typical links features such as deep bunkering, gorse and thick rough.

The par 70 is listed as playing 7,282 yards for this week’s test, although that’s from the back tees largely and the DP World Tour have the flexibility to keep the yardage fluid so it remains to be seen how it sets up each day. 3 par-5s and 5 par-3s explains the par of 70. There’s been some re-routing since last year’s event with the objective of creating a stronger finishing stretch, with the 6th and 15th holes swapping positions amongst other tweaks, however for all intents and purposes we’re playing the same course as previous years.

Greens are fescue-based, similar to those used at Castle Stuart in this event in the relatively recent past, as well as at Royal Birkdale for the 2017 Open Championship.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Scottish Open that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.

As noted above, Renaissance Club hosted this event for the first time in 2019: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats | SG Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2025: Chris Gotterup, 150/1; 2024: Robert Macintyre, 55/1; 2023: Rory McIlroy, 8/1; 2022: Xander Schauffele, 20/1; 2021: Minwoo Lee, 200/1; 2020: Aaron Rai, 50/1; 2019: Bernd Wiesberger, 40/1; 2018: Brandon Stone, 400/1; 2017: Rafa Cabrera-Bello, 50/1; 2016: Alex Noren, 50/1; 2015: Rickie Fowler, 22/1; 2014: Justin Rose, 14/1; 2013: Phil Mickelson, 22/1; 2012: Jeev Milkha Singh, 100/1; 2011: Luke Donald, 10/1; 2010: Edoardo Molinari, 70/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

A slightly soggy lead up to this year’s Scottish Open will improve somewhat for the tournament days with sunshine and showers expected and temperatures nudging towards 21 Centigrade/70 Fahrenheit when the sun makes any kind of prolonged appearance. Wind will be moderate at times at 10-15mph without being excessive, with Thursday being the calmest day.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the winners here at the Renaissance Club gives a little more insight into what’s required to succeed on this track:

  • 2025, Chris Gotterup (-15). 318 yards (9th), 42.3% fairways (61st), 72.2% greens in regulation (20th), 75.0% scrambling (4th), 1.65 putts per GIR (2nd)
  • 2024, Robert Macintyre (-18). 308 yards (26th), 65.4% fairways (10th), 77.8% greens in regulation (17th), 68.8% scrambling (25th), 1.68 putts per GIR (7th)
  • 2023, Rory McIlroy (-15). 331 yards (1st), 51.9% fairways (37th), 69.4% greens in regulation (28th), 63.6% scrambling (33rd), 1.63 putts per GIR (2nd)
  • 2022, Xander Schauffele (-7). 309 yards (16th), 48.1% fairways (35th), 70.9% greens in regulation (5th), 42.9% scrambling (70th), 1.69 putts per GIR (6th)
  • 2021, Minwoo Lee (-18). 305 yards (16th), 50% fairways (64th), 76.4% greens in regulation (27th), 64.7% scrambling (45th), 1.66 putts per GIR (3rd).
  • 2020, Aaron Rai (-11). 285 yards (30th), 59.6% fairways (16th), 77.8% greens in regulation (4th), 81.3% scrambling (4th), 1.79 putts per GIR (29th).
  • 2019, Bernd Wiesberger (-22). 302 yards (16th), 63.5% fairways (30th), 81.9% greens in regulation (23rd), 53.8% scrambling (59th), 1.65 putts per GIR (6th).

In easier conditions in 2019 and 2021, hitting greens wasn’t remotely an issue – you have to go all the way down to Kurt Kitayama in 43rd place before finding a player who failed to find 70% of GIR in 2019; similarly in 2021 the top 25 were all above that level – and players hitting 80% or more was commonplace both years. 2024 was fairly similar too with a winning score of -18 for Bob Macintyre and his 77.8% GIR only good enough for 17th on that metric.

Although 2023 was fairly challenging, 2020 was played in tougher conditions with lower temperatures, wind and rain at various points, leading to a much higher winning total. 2022 featured wind too, with Xander Schauffele’s eventual winning score of 7-under proving once again that exposed courses play as tough or as easy as the conditions dictate.2023 and 2025 were both won at 15-under so were somewhere in the middle in that respect with some wind in play on both occasions.

Given the large, easy to hit greens here, proximity is of importance for setting up birdie opportunities, as of course is having a putter warm enough to convert at a regular rate in normal conditions.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, SG Tee to Green is the most common success factor from the 7 renewals we have data recorded for here, with each of our winners ranking inside the top 8 on that metric:

  • 2025, Chris Gotterup: T: 4th; A: 48th; T2G: 8th; ATG: 10th; P: 4th
  • 2024, Robert Macintyre: T: 7th; A: 8th; T2G: 4th; ATG: 33rd; P: 18th
  • 2023, Rory McIlroy: T: 3rd; A: 4th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 38th; P: 29th
  • 2022, Xander Schauffele: T: 16th; A: 7th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 15th; P: 27th
  • 2021, Minwoo Lee: T: 41st; A: 21st; T2G: 4th; ATG: 2nd; P: 17th
  • 2020, Aaron Rai: T: 14th; A: 23rd, T2G: 2nd, ATG: 8th; P: 23rd
  • 2019, Bernd Wiesberger: T: 27th; A: 3rd, T2G: 3rd, ATG: 44th; P: 21st

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

In the easiest of the 7 years back in 2019, SG Approach and SG Tee to Green were dominant factors for the top performers, whereas SG Around the Green was far more prominent in 2020’s tougher renewal, alongside SG Tee to Green again.

SG Putting was more prevalent in 2021, again combined with SG Tee to Green, whereas 2022 and 2023 saw Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy produce field-leading performances from Tee to Green. Robert Macintyre was a little more balanced in 2024, producing SG positive performances in every category, albeit with SG T2G still the standout number, and Chris Gotterup was also SG positive across the board last year.

Incoming Form: Current form students wouldn’t have taken long to dismiss the chance of Brandon Stone at Gullane back in 2018 with the South African having failed to break the top-60 on any of his previous 7 starts. 400/1 was the reward for punters who managed to overlook his recent finishes.

Prior to that, recent form for all winners of this event since 2010 listed below had been good enough to shortlist them at least, with each Scottish Open champion in that time having recorded a minimum of one top-10 finish in their last 4 starts. In fact you can extend that trend right back to 2002 with the marginal exception of 2004 winner Thomas Levet, however he had finished 8th at Wentworth 5 starts prior and 2nd in Italy a month before that.

2019 and 2020 winners of the Scottish Open, Rai and Wiesberger – both here at Renaissance – had finished as runner-up the week before at the Irish Open, whereas Minwoo Lee had produced a solid top-20 performance at Mount Juliet the weekend prior.

2022 winner Xander Schauffele was in hot form arriving here, having won the Travelers Championship on the PGA Tour a little over a week before making it back-to-back successes, and 2023 winner Rory McIlroy arrived off the back of five straight top-10 finishes, including 2nd at the US Open.2024winner Robert Macintyre had won the Canadian Open the previous month, having finished 8th at the US PGA Championship a fortnight before that, whereas last year’s winner Chris Gotterup has produced a strong of solid if unspectacular efforts before taking the title:

  • 2025, Chris Gotterup: MC/18/MC/18/12/15/13/28/MC/23/26/21
  • 2024, Robert Macintyre: 32/MC/33/MC/8/MC/13/8/MC/1/MC/16/MC
  • 2023, Rory McIlroy: 32/29/2/MC/3/MC/47/7/7/9/2/7
  • 2022, Xander Schauffele: 12/35/MC/5/13/18/14/1
  • 2021, Minwoo Lee: MC/MC/28/21/52/MC/42/17
  • 2020, Aaron Rai: MC/21/10/44/31/44/15/2
  • 2019, Bernd Wiesberger: 23/14/70/1/8/76/16/2
  • 2018, Brandon Stone: 22/MC/MC/60/65/MC/MC/69
  • 2017, Rafa Cabrera-Bello: MC/24/4/MC/4/42/26/MC
  • 2016, Alex Noren: 50/6/9/MC/43/12/MC/8
  • 2015, Rickie Fowler: 71/12/MC/9/1/30/MC/MC
  • 2014, Justin Rose: 14/8/5/4/25/MC/12/1
  • 2013, Phil Mickelson: MC/16/54/3/MC/2/2/MC
  • 2012, JM Singh: 25/32/27/MC/7/MC/30/46
  • 2011, Luke Donald: 4/2/8/4/2/1/7/45
  • 2010, Edoardo Molinari: MC/17/13/MC/36/4/47/42

Event Form: The victories of Bernd Wiesberger, Brandon Stone and Rafa Cabrera-Bello flummoxed event form students with little to work with, before Aaron Rai’s win in 2020 restored some kind of order. Despite this event hopping about in terms of venue, the 6 Scottish Open winners prior to Rafa had also recorded at least one top-10 finish in this event before lifting the trophy.

The trend stops at Edoardo Molinari in 2010, however there may be something positive in terms of experience of playing in similar conditions with similar grasses in the past – indeed the Italian had finished runner-up on his last start on Scottish soil on the Challenge Tour the previous year; with regards Cabrera-Bello, he’d produced a 4th place finish at the Dunhill Links over the years and a further top-10 at Gleneagles. Even Stone, with his poor incoming form, had finished 15th at the Dunhill Links on his previous start in Scotland.

Aaron Rai had finished 9th at Gullane on his Scottish Open debut to rekindle the top-10 stat, however his previous attempt at Renaissance had ended in a missed cut. 2021 winner Minwoo Lee had recorded a 30th place finish on debut here in 2020, opening with a 66 and closing with a 69, to at least give some hint that he’d enjoy the course, whereas Xander built on his 10th place finish on debut before winning here in 2022.

Rory McIlroy’s record at the Scottish Open was fairly ordinary for a player of his quality prior to his 2023 victory, although perhaps that was more down to his preparation strategy for the Open Championship rather than anything more sinister given that his wider record in Scotland is pretty strong.

Robert Macintyre made up for his narrow defeat to Rory McIlroy here in 2023 in what was an emotional and hugely popular win the following year, whereas Chris Gotterup improved massively on his missed cut the year before when winning last year:

  • 2025, Chris Gotterup: MC
  • 2024, Robert Macintyre: MC/14/18/MC/2
  • 2023, Rory McIlroy: MC/19/46/14/MC/34/MC
  • 2022, Xander Schauffele: 10
  • 2021, Minwoo Lee: 30
  • 2020, Aaron Rai: 9/MC
  • 2019, Bernd Wiesberger: MC/MC/31/41/51
  • 2018, Brandon Stone: MC
  • 2017, Rafa Cabrera-Bello: MC/MC/MC/47/MC/27/41/21
  • 2016, Alex Noren: MC/38/67/67/MC/3/MC
  • 2015, Rickie Fowler: 8
  • 2014, Justin Rose: 37/5/MC/MC/MC/14
  • 2013, Phil Mickelson: 35/MC/44/2/38/MC/58/16
  • 2012, JM Singh: 37/MC/MC/43/9/MC/49/42
  • 2011, Luke Donald: 5/2/4
  • 2010, Edoardo Molinari: 54/MC

In total then, 13 of the past 15 Scottish Open champions had recorded a top 30 finish or thereabouts in this event prior to their victory, and we have to go all the way back to Tom Lehman’s victory at Loch Lomond in 1997 before finding a debutant who’s won at this event in its various guises and locations.

My selections are as follows:

Matt Fitzpatrick 3pts EW 16/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes

As ever with the event before a Major Championship, we have to decide whether those at the very top of the market are here to sharpen their tools or whether they’re here to win. Scottie Scheffler’s 8th place finish here last year proved to be the perfect preparation as the World Number 1 went on to capture the Claret Jug for the first time and complete the third leg of his career grand slam with just the US Open still to go.

Rory McIlroy seems to be more selective these days about which events he plays first and foremost, and which ones are his ultimate targets. Rory won here in 2023 in an epic battle with Robert MacIntyre, however 6th the following week at Hoylake may have been his penance for that victory. Jon Rahm’s addition to this co-sanctioned field is interesting to say the least, however he too may use this week to get back into the swing of links golf.

Now it’s fair to say that Matt Fitzpatrick may also have more than one eye on next week’s main event as he looks to double his Major tally and win his first Open Championship, however he’s shown in 2026 that finding – and maintaining – top form may be the best strategy, and to that end I get the feeling that he’d happily push on for the win this week if he’s in striking distance over the weekend.

Victory at the Valspar Championship in March followed his runner-up finish to Cam Young at the The Players Championship the week before, and he followed up his RBC Heritage win April with victory alongside his brother the following week at the Zurich Classic.

2nd at the Canadian Open the week before the US Open and 4th last time out at the Travelers shows that the Englishman is still playing some exceptional golf, and who’s to say that he doesn’t produce another massive fortnight in the British Isles this week and next to keep his fabulous 2026 moving forward.

Seven attempts here at Renaissance have seen Matt make the weekend six times with best finishes of 6th in 2022, 4th last year and 2nd in 2021, and it’s clear that he gets on nicely with the greens on this property. The 31 year-old topped the field for SG Putting on that best effort and has ranked inside the top 10 on that same metric on three further occasions, including last year. Given how he’s been striking the ball of late, that could be a seriously potent combination here this week.

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Tyrrell Hatton 2pts EW 30/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes

At a backable each-way price given the quality of this week’s field, I’m also backing new father Tyrrell Hatton. The Hattons welcomed a baby girl to the family in late May, and Tyrrell promptly won on his next LIV start at Valderrama to add another example to the long list of ‘nappy factor’ winners over the years.

Whether the Englishman can push on from here and secure a maiden Major title next week remains to be seen, however this week’s task seems firmly in his wheelhouse. Of his eight titles at DP World Tour level, five of them have been at Rolex Series level including the Tour’s flagship event at Wentworth in 2020, and the other three have all come at the Alfred Dunhill Links between 2016 and 2024. He’s also finished inside the top 6 at the Open Championship twice over the years – put simply, he can play links golf and is more than comfortable winning at this kind of level.

3rd at The Masters and 7th at the US Open on his last start, Tyrrell’s been playing some top quality golf at the highest level in 2026 and he returns to Renaissance where he’s finished no worse than 24th from 4 attempts, including 6th the last time he visited here in 2023. With the form he’s been in lately, and maybe a new level of serenity that fatherhood may bring him, improving on that finish and seriously contending here this week could well be on the cards.

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Brian Harman 1pt EW 100/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Last year’s win here for Chris Gotterup was a reminder that Americans can’t and shouldn’t be ignored on a Scottish links and the form of Brian Harman is remarkably similar to that of the defending champion when he arrived here last year.

The 150/1 about Gotterup last year was driven by a course record of a missed cut from his solitary attempt at Renaissance the year before, coupled with a form line that contained a string of top-25 finishes without anything outstanding. Harman’s current form is similar with just one missed cut in his last 14 starts, a best of 11th at The Players, and a couple of top-25 finishes his last four outings. The difference with Brian though is that he’s contended here at Renaissance in the past, finishing 12th in 2023 when entering the final day in a tie for 3rd place, before he famously went on to win The Open the following week by a massive six strokes.

The 39 year-old’s approach play took a sharp upturn last time out at the Travelers Championship, ranking 4th for SG Approach while gaining more than a shot per round from Tee to Green, and his tidy, patient game with a penchant for being able to play comfortably in any wind that presents itself should set him in good stead for this week.

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Victor Perez 1pt EW 110/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

A little further down the betting, I can’t resist a bet on Victor Perez who’s shown some promise each time he’s returned from LIV to the DP World Tour in 2026.

2nd at the Soudal Open saw the 33 year-old top both the SG Off the Tee and SG Tee to Green categories with the two strokes lost putting over the 4 days ultimately the reason he finished behind Richard Sterne. 9th last week in Munich saw him reverse that number by gaining a couple of strokes on the greens, complimented by 11th for SG Off the Tee and 10th for SG Tee to Green.

LIV form has been solid if unspectacular for the Frenchman since he switched to that Tour at the start of the year, with five top-20 finishes in his last seven starts showing promise without seriously challenging for a title. Prior to that, Perez was a 3-time winner on the DP World Tour, winning the Alfred Dunhill Links, Dutch Open, and the Abu Dhabi Championship with that most recent win coming at Rolex Series level.

A return to his adopted homeland now that he’s made home in Dundee could spur Victor on, much as was evident when he got that breakthrough win in 2019 at St Andrews, and with six cuts made from seven here, a best of 10th in 2024, plus first round leader 12 months ago, there’s plenty to suggest that he can go well here this week.

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Grant Forrest 0.5pt EW 275/1 (12EW, 1/5) with BOLYE Sports

Finally, I’ll have a small, speculative play on Grant Forrest who’s been more miss than hit this year but has proven in the past that links golf on the east coast of Scotland is his forte.

Livingston-born Forrest resides in North Berwick nowadays making this very much a home tie for the Scot with all the home comforts and support that brings, and that formula has twice brought him success on the DP World Tour in the relatively recent past. The 33 year-old made his breakthrough at the 2021 Hero Open at Fairmont St Andrews with an impressive 24-under total, before following that up last summer a few miles further up the coast at Trump Aberdeen when carrying our money in altogether trickier conditions. Calm or blowing a gale, Grant is undoubtedly equipped with the shots required to conquer a Scottish Links.

7th in Bahrain at the start of February is his best result of 2026, however 12th in Austria just over a month ago showed further promise before a disappointing missed cut the following week when well-fancied in the Netherlands. An opening 78 put paid to his chances that week, however a Friday 65 was much more like it and I suspect he’s playing better golf than his very most recent efforts suggest and that makes him an interesting prospect on his favourite terrain.

7 starts here at Renaissance have resulted in 6 paid weekends and a best finish of 11th in 2023. Last year’s tie for 22nd is arguably more interesting though as he topped the field SG Tee to Green statistic on the week in elite company before winning in Aberdeen on his next start. The kind of player who could perform way better than his odds suggest.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 17:10BST 6.7.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.