Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Hero Indian Open Tips 2024

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Stats Pages For This Week:

 

Last week’s headline selection Paul Casey couldn’t muster the kind of final round performance that catapulted Kiradech Aphibarnrat and eventual winner Jesper Svensson into a play-off in Singapore from off the pace, with the Englishman eventually finishing in solo 6th place. Hopefully this Sunday will serve us a little better.

On we go and the DP World Tour heads north-west to India as we complete our 2-week mini-swing in the east. A field containing a mix of DP World Tour regulars and a smattering of local players who have been granted national spots will tee it up around the tough, quirky Gary Player course at DLF Golf and Country Club.

Rasmus Hojgaard heads the betting once again now that last week’s star names have disappeared, with 12/1-14/1 the general price about the talented young Dane. Jordan Smith, Ewen Ferguson, Richard Mansell and Yannik Paul follow either side of the 20/1 mark in what can only be described as a regular-looking DP World Tour field.

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DLF G&CC. Designer: Gary Player, 2015; Course Type: Technical; Par: 72; Length: 7,416 yards; Water Hazards: 6 in play; Fairways: Celebration Bermuda; Rough: Celebration Bermuda; Greens: Bermuda Mini Verde.

Course Overview. After a couple of years at the tight, tree-lined sub-7,000 yard Delhi Golf Club, this event moved to Gary Player’s new course in 2017 as the track made its bow on the DP World Tour.

In stark contrast to the previous venue, Player has carved a brute out of the Aravalli Hills which stretches to 7,657 yards in length from the Gold tees, however, as per previous years, the professionals will be playing from some of the forward tees this week, meaning that the parkland-style track will play as a 7,416 yard, Par 72 with the potential for different tees to be used as the tournament progresses.

Built to the latest golf design standards including a full sub-air system, the layout features severe elevation changes, eye-catching bunkering and large, undulating greens.

Fairways are fairly narrow and water features heavily on 6 holes, including the par-3 5th which is to an island green as the front 9 (the ‘Lake 9’) meanders around the 2 lakes that the course flanks. The back 9 (the ‘Quarry 9’) is the longest of the two and contains the holes with the most elevation change. Bermudagrass has been used throughout the construction with Mini Verde the strain of choice on the greens.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Indian Open that will help to shape a view on players who may go well this week, with results taken from the events held on this course since 2017 on the DP World Tour and the PGTI: Current Form | Course Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Form Stats.

Course Winners.

  • PGTI: 2023: Karan Pratap Singh (-7, 54 holes); 2022: Varun Parikh (-11)
  • DP World Tour: 2023: Marcel Siem (-14, 33/1); 2019: Stephen Gallacher (-9, 150/1); 2018: Matt Wallace (-11, 66/1); SSP Chawrasia (-10, 80/1).

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

The tournament should enjoy sunny conditions with hot temperatures (high 90s Fahrenheit) and light winds expected, with nothing more than 5-10mph in the forecast.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Stats from the 4 winners here at DP World Tour level gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2023: Marcel Siem (-14). 309 yards (5th), 75% fairways (13th), 86.1% greens in regulation (2nd), 40% scrambling (44th), 1.72 putts per GIR (12th)
  • 2019: Stephen Gallacher (-9). 291 yards (32nd), 66.1% fairways (45th), 76.4% greens in regulation (12th), 41.2% scrambling (35th), 1.62 putts per GIR (2nd)
  • 2018: Matt Wallace (-11) . 294 yards (18th), 82.1% fairways (9th), 66.7% greens in regulation (31st), 58.3% scrambling (5th), 1.58 putts per GIR (3rd)
  • 2017: SSP Chawrasia (-10). 266 yards (67th), 76.8% fairways (12th), 66.7% greens in regulation (31st), 75% scrambling (1st), 1.71 putts per GIR (7th)

With just 8 players finishing under par in 2017, 15 players beating that mark in 2018, 26 in red numbers in 2019, and then 24 last year, with double-bogeys a very regular occurrence on even the better players’ scorecards, this event is a true test of patience and concentration with danger lurking on virtually every shot.

The greens are huge, particularly on the back-9, and players who are missing the putting surfaces in regulation need to have a razor-sharp short game to save them from dropping shots. The greens themselves are excellent quality, however it’s critical to find the right portion of putting surfaces given the undulations, so quality lag putting is also an important strength to possess.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, stats for the top 3 finishers last year were as follows:

  • 1st Marcel Siem: T: 1st; A: 19th; T2G: 9th; ATG: 45th; P: 4th
  • 2nd Yannik Paul: T: 34th; A: 1st; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 16th; P: 30th
  • 3rd Joost Luiten: T: 7th; A: 4th; T2G: 4th; ATG: 42nd; P: 22nd

The most consistent statistic last year was SG Tee to Green, with each of the top 7 finishers ranking inside the top 14 in the field on that count.

Marcel Siem ranked 1st for SG Off the Tee and 4th for SG Putting, but the second most consistent measure was SG Approach where again the top 7 finishers all fared well, with Siem’s 19th place ranking the worst of the 7.

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form. Of the 6 course winners, PGTI winners Varun Parikh and Karan Pratap Singh had the most tangible recent form, albeit at lower levels of course.

2023 Indian Open winner Marcel Siem grabbed his first win for just over 8 years last February, arriving off the back of back-to-back 17th place finishes in Singapore and Thailand in the two weeks before.

Prior to that, Stephen Gallacher won off the back of 4 straight missed cuts, and you have to go all the way back to the Dunhill Links the previous October before you find a top-10 finish to his name.

It’s fair to say that the incoming form of the other two winners was subtle at best. Matt Wallace had recorded his best finish of the season on his previous start in Qatar when finishing 19th a fortnight before winning here; likewise Chawrasia had also recorded his best result of the season on his last start, 35th at the World Super 6 in Perth:

  • 2023: Karan Pratap Singh: 34/18/2/1/MC/27/13/MC/27/14/6/16
  • 2023: Marcel Siem: 28/20/37/MC/43/16/5/47/19/MC/17/17
  • 2022: Varun Parikh: 37/MC/MC/21/23/29/52/53/MC/30/3/20/MC
  • 2019: Stephen Gallacher: 44/10/70/29/35/60/MC/67/MC/MC/MC/MC
  • 2018: Matt Wallace: 59/4/18/54/34/30/38/32/37/MC/44/19
  • 2017: SSP Chawrasia: MC/MC/34/71/47/1/MC/70/MC/MC/MC/35

Course Form: Of the 6 course winners, only Stephen Gallacher in 2019 and Marcel Siem last year  had any tangible course form, with Gallacher having finished 29th on debut and 7th the year before his win, and Siem having finished 29th on his debut also:

  • 2023: Karan Pratap Singh: Debut
  • 2023: Marcel Siem: 29/MC
  • 2022: Varun Parikh: MC
  • 2019: Stephen Gallacher: 29/7
  • 2018: Matt Wallace: Debut
  • 2017: SSP Chawrasia: Debut

The key aspect to focus on this week in my view is the difficulty of the course and the fact that players need to be 100% focussed and prepared for this tough test from the outset.

Some players relish a grind, whereas others don’t have the mental approach to shrug off the inevitable bogeys or worse and they can quickly spiral downwards once the first few mistakes are made. For me, focussing on those players who have proven in the past that they can grind out a score on some of golf’s tougher tests is no bad attribute, however equally those players who are comfortable with the surroundings and the hot conditions may also be at an advantage.

My Final Hero Indian Open Tips Are As Follows:

Joost Luiten 2pts EW 25/1 (5EW, 1/4) with Betfred

With the likes of Shane Lowry and Paul Casey departing after last week’s Singapore Classic, we’re back to a regular-looking DP World Tour betting market and as ever the top of that market looks like it should be taken on.

Rasmus Hojgaard’s 3rd round 76 last week took him from the top 10 heading into the weekend to oblivion, and that’s a little concerning for his backers this week on an unforgiving course. Jordan Smith blows hot and cold, not just from week to week but from day to day, and Ewen Ferguson has been playing consistently without really troubling the bookies from an each-way perspective of late, let alone from a winning point of view.

Yannik Paul was tempting having backed him here last year where he agonisingly finished second, having led by 5 at the halfway point, however 10 consecutive rounds where he’s failed to break 70 is a little disconcerting, culminating in last week’s missed cut.

Anirban Lahiri is an interesting invite on home soil who could well feature, however I’ll begin this week’s team with Joost Luiten who closed the Singapore Classic with a 6-under round of 66 to finish 11th, and he returns this week to a course where he’s performed well enough in the past to suggest he could build in last week’s effort.

Over at the Valspar Championship, Peter Malnati became the latest in a list of players to end a long run without a victory, and should Luiten win here this week it will be his first piece of silverware since lifting the Oman Open trophy back in February of 2018.

The Dutchman was enthused with his game in Singapore in all aspects other than his driving, however 71.4% fairways was hardly disastrous and he heads to a course this week where the challenge is much more about finding putting surfaces in regulation or managing to salvage par when that’s not possible, and on both counts Luiten is more than capable.

When anywhere near his best, GIR is the cornerstone of Joost’s game and 3rd for Scrambling for the season to date suggests that his short game is in the right kind of shape for this week’s challenge, plus he sounded positive about the state of his putting which has undoubtedly improved in recent years.

2 visits here to this Gary Player creation have seen the 38 year-old finish 9th in 2018 and then 3rd last year, with strong all-round statistical performances both times punctuated by GIR ranks of 8th and 4th respectively. With momentum behind him and the warm weather that he prefers assured, I can see the 6-time Tour winner making it a magnificent 7 here in India this week. RESULT: T11

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Jeff Winther 1pt EW 70/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

Finishing alongside Luiten last week was Jeff Winther, who would surely be a much shorter price here this week had he not finished with a couple of bogeys over his final 5 holes in Singapore.

Unlike my headline selection, Winther doesn’t have any sparkling course form to build a case around here at the DLF Golf & County Club – in fact he missed the cut last year on his only start, however that came in a stretch where he missed 5 cuts on the spin and he arrives this week in much finer fettle on a challenging test that I think should suit when he’s in good form.

For me, the Dane is better suited to more stringent tests, backed up somewhat by his to date only victory at DP World Tour level in Mallorca at 15-under back in 2021, plus two of his three wins at Nordic League level came at single digits under par. No surprise then that he wasn’t far away last week on a course that isn’t a complete pushover, despite having opened with a round of 72 to sit the wrong side of the cut line.

8th at the 2022 Open de France, 6th when defending in Mallorca, 8th at The Belfry last year, 2nd at the Open de France, and 6th at the Andalucia Masters were all positive performances on weeks where scoring didn’t get too deep, and his 9th place finish at the DP World Tour Championship in November is way ahead of most in this week’s field.

As per my preamble, all 4 of our winners here at this level produced a strong Putts per GIR performance on their way to winning here and the 35 year-old currently ranks 7th for the season on that count, backed up by 13th for 3-putt avoidance which could be crucial on these large greens. RESULT: 9th

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Simon Forsstrom 1pt EW 110/1 (5EW, 1/4) with bet365

7-under through the first two rounds in Singapore and sitting inside the top 10 heading into the weekend, the final 36 holes didn’t go quite to plan for Simon Forsstrom – but there had been enough to like to that point for us to have marked his card ahead of his second look at this course in New Delhi.

In truth, a double-bogey, bogey finish to his round on Sunday took most of the shine off his performance, save for a costly spell around the turn on Saturday, and had the Swede parred the final two holes for an 11-under total and a tie for 11th, I suspect we’d be getting nothing like the 3-figure quotes still available at the time of writing.

Statistically the 34 year-old won’t appear at the upper end of any of the key metrics that you might look at this week – too many missed cuts since the start of the wraparound season are the cause of that, and nothing better than 27th in Qatar and 29th last week won’t have done nearly enough to offset the missed weekends, yet we’ve already seen with the Stockholm native that he’s well capable of finding that sparky week that catapults him into a winning position.

Victory at last year’s Soudal Open on a track that doesn’t allow scoring to get out of control is positive, and he’s also won on the Challenge Tour as well as twice on the Nordic circuit to suggest that he’s got no issue taking opportunities when the door opens.

12th into Sunday at Le Golf National last year and 18th heading into the final day in Qatar last month are two challenging events that could have provided us with a really good clue for this week had he finished either or both events off a little better. It’s 8th here at DLF G&CC last year though, where he closed with a 67 having been 7-under through 11 holes, that gets the 34 year-old the nod this week. RESULT: T21

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Matthew Baldwin 1pt EW 100/1 (5EW, 1/4) with bet365

Finally, Matthew Baldwin’s 70th place finish last week in Singapore could have many a punter simply crossing through his name and moving on to the next player without so much as a second glance, however I beg to differ.

The Southport man got his breakthrough win at DP World level last March at the SDC Championship to give us a tick in the box when it comes to biorhythms, however it was the manner of that victory – and his previous success at the MENA Tour’s Journey to Jordan in 2019 – that catches the eye, with the former coming by a massive 7 strokes and the latter by 8. Clearly when everything clicks for the Englishman then he’s a formidable opponent, whatever the level.

Last year’s win in South Africa came after a similarly throttled-down performance the week before, finishing 60th at the Kenya Open to put punters off the scent, before he took the field apart the following week.

30th here last year on his DLF G&CC debut followed a pair of missed cuts, so even with last week’s effort to one side for a moment, his 15th place finish at Glendower on his previous start where he closed with a pair of 66s suggests he’s in much better nick this year than he was last. 16th for SG Tee to Green and 12th for SG Approach here last year was complimented by 9th for Driving Accuracy and 11th for GIR to suggest that the course suited his eye from tee to green, and perhaps we’ll see one of his trademark walkover successes here this week on his second look at the course. RESULT: MC

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 14:00GMT 25.3.24 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.