Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford's Houston Open Tips 2026

Get Steve's previews as soon as they're published @Bamfordgolf Follow Now

 

Congratulations if you were on-board Matt Fitzpatrick at Monday best prices as big as 20/1 with bet365. Bang goes the narrative that contenders at The Players Championship cannot go on to win the Valspar Championship the week after!

With only 2 weeks to go now until The Masters, the PGA Tour moves from the Sunshine State to the Lone Star State for the Houston Open. 5 years ago this event was the curtain-raiser for The Masters in November and was played for the first time at Memorial Park Golf Course. Now reinstated from the autumn to its traditional spring schedule spot, Tournament organisers the Astros Foundation, led by Astros owner Jim Crane, work hard to generate a quality field. 2026 sees Scottie Scheffler, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Ryan Fox, Ryan Gerard, Chris Gotterup, Ben Griffin, Brooks Koepka, Shane Lowry plus defending champion Min Woo Lee in the field.

Before we go into the detail surrounding the Houston Open, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,600 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

bet365 2026 Golf Betting System Majors Competition sponsored by bet365

We’re giving you the opportunity to win in 2026 as we’re running our popular Majors Competition in association with bet365 who’ve put a total of £250 in cash up for grabs to the winners. The competition is in the form of a one-and-done, so all you need to do to enter is give us a single player for each of the 4 Majors – full details are here.

✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

bet365 New Customer Offer: Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad

You can read Liam Williams’ Power Rankings for the Houston Open at bet365 News.

Course Guide: The Houston Open from 2003 through 2019 was played at Golf Club of Houston (formerly Redstone GC), on a Par 72 course which featured many Florida set-up traits. Winners there included Fred Couples, Vijay Singh (x2), Adam Scott, Paul Casey, Anthony Kim, Phil Mickelson, J.B. Holmes, Russell Henley and Ian Poulter, traditionally the week before The Masters.

2020 saw a move to Memorial Park Golf Course, which had received a $19 million renovation funded by Astros owner Jim Crane via the tournament-organising Astros Foundation. The course crafted by Tom Doak is not your standard PGA Tour affair, proving relatively difficult to tame until soft conditions made it far easier in 2025.

Memorial Park Golf Course, Houston, Texas : Designer: John Bredemus 1935, with Tom Doak renovation 2019; Course Type: Mid-Score, Long; Par: 70 ; Length: 7,475 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 4; Number of Sand Bunkers: 24; Acres of Fairway: 28; Fairways: 419 Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass; Rough: 419 Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass 1 .25″; Greens: 7,000 sq.ft average featuring MiniVerde Bermuda overseeded with Poa Trivialis; Tournament Stimpmeter 12-12.5ft.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Memorial Park and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:

  • Memorial Park: 30–40 yards.
  • Copperhead: Average 20 yards.
  • TPC Sawgrass: Average 28 yards.
  • Bay Hill: Average 30 yards.
  • PGA National: Average 28 yards.
  • Riviera: Average 27 yards.
  • Pebble Beach: Average 30-33 yards. Spyglass Hill: 25-30 yards.
  • TPC Scottsdale: Average 38 yards.
  • Torrey Pines South: Average 24-27 yards. Torrey Pines North: Average 24-27 yards.
  • Pete Dye Stadium: Average 33 yards.

Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:

  • 2025: 68.87 (-1.13), Rank 29 of 50 courses
  • 2024: 70.25 (+0.25), Rank 12 of 51 courses.
  • 2022: 70.56 (+0.56), Rank 11 of 49 courses.
  • 2021: 70.80 (+0.80), Rank 9 of 50 courses.
  • 2020: 71.03 (+1.03), Rank 8 of 51 courses.

Course Overview: First thing to point out is that Memorial Park Golf Course is a municipal golf course which caters for 60,000 rounds per year. Previously a John Bredemus 1935 design, Tom Doak was brought in by tournament sponsor Jim Crane to completely renovate Memorial Park, so that it can host both the Houston Open each year and then cater for the amateur player for the other 51 weeks of the year. Doak, with some help from player consultant Brooks Koepka, delivered a +7,400 yard design in just 10 months.

The routing of the course in general is the same as the old course, but Doak has added far more movement in both the fairways and especially around the greens. His brief was to make Memorial Park an exciting venue for both PGA Tour and leisure golfers alike.

At a freshly extended 7,475 yards – 2025 saw 40 yards added to the par-5 16th hole with a new professional tee – for a Par 70, the course is long and stretching in length. It’s a pretty quirky set-up, as the course features 5 par-3s and 3 par-5s in total. 2 par-5s are on the front 9, with a driveable par-4 – the 13th – on the back side with a further, freshly extended, par-5.

Off the tee, Doak designs tend to feature very generous fairways, and although these are tree-lined, those trees tend to be well back. Rough in 2025 was light at 1.25” and that aided lower scoring significantly as wayward drivers weren’t punished to nearly the same extent.

As part of Tom Doak’s brief, the course only features 21 bunkers on the basis that they are easy for Tour pros but difficult for amateurs. Instead there are lots of tight grass slopes, contours and green complex surround slopes which repel approach shots, then requiring a tight lie to an elevated green recovery shot. Pretty perfect for some pre-Masters prep.

The tough, contoured green complexes and associated run-offs and the sheer length of the Par 70 set-up created relative mayhem here in both 2020 and 2021, with Memorial Park playing within the 6 toughest non-Major courses. That eased – but only slightly in 2022 where thunderstorms on Friday afternoon softened the course. 2024 saw shorter rough and high winds across 54 holes, making for a higher winning score, whereas rain pre-tournament and on Thursday last year saw soft course conditions and Min Woo Lee win at -20/260.

In March Memorial Park features overseed which will provide a much tighter playing surface than the Bermudagrass did in the autumn. This undoubtedly highlights the penal green surrounds, while shorter, less intense rough as per the PGA Tour way these days, gives more opportunity for aggressive approach shots to the green.

And finally the green surfaces themselves, which at an average 7.000 sq.ft are large and feature MiniVerde UltraDwarf Bermudagrass green complexes, which in March will feature Poa Trivialis overseed. Other current PGA Tour stop-offs with MiniVerde include TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic of New Orleans – with Poa Trivialis) and East Lake (Tour Championship), plus the old Houston Open host course at the GC of Houston, also featured them – although they were Bentgrass overseeded in its April guise.

houston open tips

Houston Open Winners: Hosted at Memorial Park: 2025: Min Woo Lee (-20); 2024: Stephan Jaeger (-12); 2022: Tony Finau (-16); 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10); 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13); Hosted at Golf Club of Houston: 2019: Lanto Griffin (-14); 2018: Ian Poulter (-19); 2017: Russell Henley (-20); 2016: Jim Herman (-15); 2015: J.B. Holmes (-16); 2014: Matt Jones (-15); 2013: D.A. Points (-16); 2012: Hunter Mahan (-16); 2011: Phil Mickelson (-20); 2010: Anthony Kim (-12).

  • 2025: Min Woo Lee 66-64-63-67 -20/260
  • 2024: Stephan Jaeger 69-66-66-67 -12/268
  • 2022: Tony Finau 65-62-68-69 -16/264
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak 68-71-66-65 -10/270
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz 67-68-67-65 -13/267

OWGR of Houston Open Winners at Memorial Park (since move pre-Masters): 2025: Min Woo Lee 46; 2024: Jaeger 71.

Datagolf Ranking of of Houston Open Winners at Memorial Park (since move pre-Masters): 2025: Min Woo Lee 41; 2024: Jaeger 57.

Cut Line: 2025: -3; 2024: +1; 2022: E; 2021: +1; 2020: +3.

Lead Score Progression:

  • 2025: Round 1 -5; Round 2 -11; Round 3 -17; Round -20.
  • 2024: Round 1 -6; Round 2 -9; Round 3 -9; Round -12.
  • 2022: Round 1 -5; Round 2 -13; Round 3 -15; Round -16.
  • 2021: Round 1 -5; Round 2 -10; Round 3 -7; Round 4 -10.
  • 2020: Round 1 -5; Round 2 -7; Round 3 -9; Round 4 -13.

Path to Victory: Below are end of round positions for Houston Open winners since 2020:

  • 2025 – Min Woo Lee: Round 1: 6th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2024 – Stephan Jaeger: Round 1: 35th, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2022 – Tony Finau: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2021 – Jason Kokrak: Round 1: 18th, Round 2: 25th, Round 3: 7th.
  • 2020 – Carlos Ortiz: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the Houston Open winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament since 2020:

  • 2025 – Min Woo Leer: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 4 ahead.
  • 2024 – Stephan Jaeger: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: level.
  • 2022 – Tony Finau: Round 1: level, Round 2: 4 ahead, Round 3: 4 ahead.
  • 2021 – Jason Kokrak: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 9 back, Round 3: 2 back.
  • 2020 – Carlos Ortiz: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 1 back.

Incoming Form of Valspar Championship winners since 2010:

  • Min Woo Lee: 20th Players/MC Bay Hill/11th PGA National/48th Genesis.
  • Stephan Jaeger: MC Players/44th Bay Hill/MC PGA National/3rd Mexico.
  • Tony Finau: MC WWT/9th Tour Champ/28th BMW/5th FedEx St Jude.
  • Jason Kokrak: 54th CJ Cup/MC Shriners/11th Tour/ 15th BMW.
  • Carlos Ortiz: 35th ZOZO/48th CJ Cup/MC Shriners/MC Sanderson.
  • Lanto Griffin: 18th Shriners/17th Safeway/11th Sanderson/13th Greenbrier.
  • Ian Poulter: QF WMP/41st Bay Hill/MC Copperhead/MC PGA National.
  • Russell Henley: 45th Bay Hill/9th Copperhead/43rd PGA National/16th TPC Scottsdale.
  • Jim Herman: 63rd Bay Hill/MC Copperhead/MC PGA National/17th Pebble/MC TPC Scottsdale.
  • J.B. Holmes: MC Bay Hill/2nd Doral/22nd Riviera/10th Pebble/2nd Torrey Pines.
  • Matt Jones: 14th Bay Hill/MC Puerto Rico/MC PGA National/59th Riviera/45th Pebble.
  • D.A. Points: MC Bay Hill/MC Copperhead/MC Puerto Rico/68th PGA National.
  • Hunter Mahan: 42nd Bay Hill/24th Doral/1st WMP/24th Riviera/13th Pebble.
  • Phil Mickelson: 24th Bay Hill/55th Doral/17th WMP/35th Riviera/9th Pebble.
  • Anthony Kim: 22nd Doral/2nd PGA National/24th TPC Scottsdale/52nd Riviera.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Min Woo Lee, 2) Scottie Scheffler, 3) Margo Penge; 4) Sudarshan Yellamaraju; 5) Gary Woodland; 6) Michael Brennan; 7) Jesper Svensson; 8) Chris Gotterup; 9) Jake Knapp; 10) Aldrich Potgieter.

Memorial Park Houston Winners & Prices: 2025: Min Woo Lee 45/1; 2024: Jaeger 50/1; 2022: Finau 22/1; 2021: Kokrak 50/1; 2020: Ortiz 160/1. Overall Average: 65/1.

Historical Weather:

  • 2025: Thursday: Scattered showers. High of 74. Wind SE 10-18 mph. Preferred lies were in effect for the first round. Friday: Cloudy with afternoon thunderstorms. High of 75. Wind SE 10-18 mph. Preferred lies in effect for round two. Play was suspended due to a dangerous weather situation at 3:01 p.m. and resumed at 5:09 p.m. Saturday:  Cloudy. High of 85. Wind S 10-16 mph. Preferred lies were in effect for round three. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 86. Wind S 10-18 mph.
  • 2024: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 75. Wind ESE 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy and breezy. High of 77. Wind SSE 14-18 mph, with gusts to 27 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy and breezy. High of 79. Wind SSE 12-16 mph, with gusts to 22 mph. Sunday:  Cloudy and breezy. High of 81. Wind S 14-18 mph, with gusts to 25 mph.
  • 2022: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 84. Friday: Cloudy. High of 82. Wind SW 8-15 mph. Due to inclement weather, the second round was suspended for the day at
  • 3:26 p.m. Saturday. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 60. Wind N 15-25 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 59. Wind E 8-15 mph.
  • 2021: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 79. Wind NW 8-16 mph. Due to inclement weather, the start to the first round was delayed 2 hours, 30 minutes and began at 9:10 a.m. CT. The first round was suspended due to darkness at 5:36 p.m. and resumed at 6:59 a.m. Friday. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 79. Wind NW 8-16 mph. Due to darkness, the second round was suspended for the day at 5:35 p.m. Saturday: Sunny. High of 69. Wind N 6-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 77. Wind SSW 6-12 mph.
  • 2020: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 79. Wind SE 4-8 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 80. Wind ENE 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 81. Wind ENE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 82. Wind ESE 6-12 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Houston, Texas is here. Texas golf is synonymous with windy conditions. This week in downtown Houston looks quieter than usual with Thursday looking the breeziest day up to circa 20mph from the south.

March has seen 55mm (2.2 inch) of precipitation. Rain on Saturday saw 10mm (0.4 inch), but with no rain forecast for the rest of the week I’m expect firmer conditions than we saw 12 months ago.

Temperature-wise it’s a tale of two halves with 29-30 degrees Celsius – 84/86 Fahrenheit – across Thursday/Friday becoming 25 degrees – 77 Fahrenheit on the weekend.

Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Farmers Insurance Open / Bahrain Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

  • Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Marco Penge; 2) Jimmy Stanger; 3) Neal Shipley; 4) Min Woo Lee; 5) Scottie Scheffler; 6) Sam Stevens; 7) Michael Brennan; 8) Johnny Keefer / Taylor Pendrith / Gary Woodland; 11) Harris English; 12) Keith Mitchell / Jesper Svensson; 14) Rickie Fowler / Chris Gotterup / Aldrich Potgieter; 17) Ryan Fox / Kristoffer Reitan; 19) Gordon Sargent / Jordan Smith / Michael Thorbjornsen; 22) Pierceson Coody / Kurt Kitayama; 24) Max McGreevy; 25) Jake Knapp / Sudarshan Yellamaraju.
  • Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Kurt Kitayama / Adam Scott; 3) Ryan Gerard / Brooks Koepka; 5) Chris Gotterup; 6) Wyndham Clark / Austin Eckroat / Nicolai Hojgaard / Shane Lowry; 10) Pierceson Coody / Chris Kirk; 12) Ryan Fox; 13) Rickie Fowler; 14) Tom Kim / Keith Mitchell / Scottie Scheffler; 17) Bud Cauley / Sahith Theegala; 19) Nicolas Echavarria; 20) Daniel Brown; 21) Michael Brennan / John Parry / Patrick Rodgers / Jordan Smith; 25) Jake Knapp / Sam Stevens / Sudarshan Yellamaraju.
  • Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Aaron Wise; 2) Scottie Scheffler; 3) David Lipsky; 4) Andrew Putnam; 5) Dylan Wu; 6) Ryan Fox; 7) Min Woo Lee; 8) Harry Hall; 9) Marty Dou / Ben Griffin; 11) Michael Thorbjornsen; 12) Adam Schenk; 13) Davis Chatfield; 14) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Jason Day; 16) Zach Bauchou / Patton Kizzire / Jesper Svensson; 19) Tom Kim / Keith Mitchell; 21) Eric Cole / Brice Garnett / Lucas Glover / Alex Smalley; 25) Tony Finau / Steven Fisk.
  • Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Min Woo Lee; 3) Ryan Fox; 4) Brooks Koepka / Adam Scott; 6) Keith Mitchell; 7) Kurt Kitayama; 8) Chris Gotterup / Jesper Svensson; 10) Taylor Pendrith / Sam Stevens; 12) Ryan Gerard / Dylan Wu; 14) Shane Lowry; 15) Nicolai Hojgaard / Michael Thorbjornsen; 17) Jordan Smith; 18) Rickie Fowler / Max McGreevy; 20) Wyndham Clark / Jake Knapp; 22) Michael Brennan; 23) Chris Kirk; 24) Adrien Dumont de Chassart / Stephan Jaeger.
  • Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Vince Whaley; 2) Jake Knapp; 3) Nick Dunlap / Rickie Fowler; 5) Chad Ramey; 6) Scottie Scheffler; 7) Harris English; 8) Sungjae Im; 9) Ryan Fox; 10) Min Woo Lee / J.T. Poston; 12) Sudarshan Yellamaraju; 13) Nicolai Hojgaard / David Lipsky / Karl Vilips; 16) Matt McCarty / Patrick Rodgers / Jimmy Stanger; 19) A.J. Ewart; 20) Harry Hall / Shane Lowry / Matthieu Pavon; 23) Sam Burns / Ben Griffin; 25) Ryan Gerard / Rasmus Hojgaard / Danny Willett.
  • Top 25 SG Total: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Min Woo Lee; 3) Jake Knapp; 4) Ryan Fox; 5) Rickie Fowler / Nicolai Hojgaard; 7) Adam Scott; 8) David Lipsky / Jimmy Stanger; 10) Ryan Gerard; 11) Chris Gotterup / Keith Mitchell; 13) Shane Lowry / Sudarshan Yellamaraju; 15) Patrick Rodgers; 16) Harris English / Brooks Koepka / Michael Thorbjornsen; 19) Ricky Castillo / Kurt Kitayama / Sahith Theegala; 22) A.J. Ewart; 23) Sungjae Im; 24) Stephan Jaeger; 25) Tony Finau / Sam Stevens.

Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Houston Open winners at Memorial Park gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2025, Min Woo Lee (-20). SG Off the Tee: 42nd, SG Approach: 15th, SG Around the Green: 15th, SG Tee to Green: 9th, SG Putting: 2nd.
  • 2024, Stephan Jaeger (-12). SG Off the Tee: 38th, SG Approach: 37th, SG Around the Green: 9th, SG Tee to Green: 18th, SG Putting: 3rd.
  • 2022, Tony Finau (-16). SG Off the Tee: 2nd, SG Approach: 9th, SG Around the Green: 29th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 2nd.
  • 2021, Jason Kokrak (-10). SG Off the Tee: 14th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 67th, SG Tee to Green: 17th, SG Putting: 3rd.
  • 2020, Carlos Ortiz (-13). SG Off the Tee: 31st, SG Approach: 14th, SG Around the Green: 2nd, SG Tee to Green: 5th, SG Putting: 5th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

  • SG Off the Tee: 26th, SG Approach: 15th, SG Around the Green: 24th, SG Tee to Green: 11th, SG Putting: 5th.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Houston Open winners at Memorial Park gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this long, Carolina-type golf course:

  • 2025, Min Woo Lee (-20). 317 yards (5th), 42.3% fairways (64th), 70.8% greens in regulation (25th), 76.2 % scrambling (13th), 1.57 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2024, Stephan Jaeger (-12). 320 yards (12th), 55.8% fairways (32nd), 68.1% greens in regulation (24th), 73.9 % scrambling (12th), 1.69 putts per GIR (9th).
  • 2022, Tony Finau (-16). 302 yards (21st), 75.0% fairways (1st), 77.8% greens in regulation (1st), 68.8 % scrambling (17th), 1.64 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2021, Jason Kokrak (-10). 302 yards (12th), 61.5% fairways (25th), 75.0% greens in regulation (3rd), 44.4 % scrambling (62nd), 1.59 putts per GIR (1st).
  • 2020, Carlos Ortiz (-13). 312 yards (16th), 50.0% fairways (51st), 70.8% greens in regulation (8th), 85.7 % scrambling (1st), 1.78 putts per GIR (36th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

  • Driving Distance: 13th, Driving Accuracy: 35th, Greens in Regulation: 12th, Scrambling: 21st, Putting Average 10th.

Let’s take a view from players as to how Memorial Park sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

Min Woo Lee (2025): “This course suits me, it’s long and the rough isn’t too thick. And yeah, when I can drive it well, I can make some noise, so thought this was a good time to put it in the schedule. 

Yeah, it was nice. Obviously waiting that long to finish a couple holes, you know, you wish you could get it done. Yeah, it was a nice birdie. Hit driver on 17. You know, had either a conservative route or aggressive route, and hitting the driver well so I thought hit the driver. I had a lob wedge in and put it to four feet and made birdie. Yeah, it was a nice 1 under for the last two holes. Yeah, it was a quick turnaround.

Obviously when you hit five fairways you don’t really — you need to scramble a lot. For the fairways to be not too thick, you can still attack the greens. The greens are soft, and around the greens with preferred lies you can put on a good lie and chip in. You know, I feel good around the greens, too.”

Stephan Jaeger (2024): “Yeah, I had a really nice drive on No. 3, we had like downwind and I went after one and I hit 7-iron on a par-5, which was awesome. It was kind of a simple birdie, kind of kept the round going. I birdied 2 and 3 after bogeying 1, which kind of felt like a par. I mean, I think Carson hit driver, 3-wood and I hit driver, 3-wood on a par-4, which doesn’t really happen that often. Yeah, it’s one of those golf courses, like it doesn’t have a lot of defence except for the length and some of the pin placements so I’m super happy with my round.

Yeah, I think this golf course, it does give you a lot of room off the tee on some spots and you can hit some bad drives and still have a perfectly fine lie or whatever. There are some holes that you have to step up and hit a good tee shot to be able to hit on the green, especially with the wind being up this week. And second shots, I mean, you hit it in the wrong spot here you’re making five or bogey at least. That’s a big one, you’ve got to miss in the right spots. Off the tee is obviously a little lenient but there’s still trees, you could still kind of get stymied behind a tree. I wouldn’t rely on hitting it all over the place on the weekend, I think a little straighter would probably serve us well.

Tony Finau (2022): “Yeah, I think I was patient with myself. I knew the golf course, it’s a tough golf course to play. You have to drive it in the fairway and your work’s not done, it’s hard to hit the greens. You know if you miss the green, it’s hard to get up and down, so I was just patient with myself. I made a couple bombs, I think that kind of opened it up. On No. 2 I made about a 60-footer for birdie and then I had 3 downwind, I think 3’s probably the one hole you can have an opportunity to score. So I think those back-to-back birdies just kind of set me off and on my way on the back nine.

Yeah, I just knew the conditions were going to be tough. You never know what the day’s going to bring. You just try and do your best to hit a shot, one shot at a time. It’s very cliché for guys that are playing well, but it truly is that way. I will say I think it’s easier to play one shot at a time when it’s so tough. You know, the conditions, the wind’s blowing, you really have to focus and hone in on every shot, every putt, so I think I did a good job of that today.

Yeah, I’ve always looked at myself as a good ball-striker and I have no problem hitting the ball low. Those are things that are very good when I play in this Texas wind. I definitely, you know, I don’t mind that the wind is blowing.”

Scottie Scheffler (2021): “I started hitting some fairways. Yesterday I was playing out of the rough most of the time, so it was just nice getting the ball out there in play, give myself some opportunities. This golf course can be pretty challenging from the Bermuda rough and you’ve got to hit the ball in play. If you’re hitting it in the rough to elevated greens that you can’t hold just because you’re hitting knucklers out of the rough, so it was very important to get the ball in the fairway.”

Jason Kokrak (2021): Believe it or not, Colonial’s not a great golf course for me and this is kind of the quintessential golf course for me; long, got to hit a lot of fairways, got to hit the ball high to keep it in some spots on these greens. Outside of the really bad eight, nine holes that I played, I played this golf course pretty outstanding.

Matthew Wolff (2021): “Yeah, it definitely seems like a bomber’s golf course. There’s not too much trouble off the tee. I think 16 is really the only, it’s a par-5, but 16’s really the only hole that you can really have a penalty shot off the tee in my opinion. You can definitely get it into the trees and into the rough and that’s what makes this course hard and that’s its defence. But at the end of the day, I think it’s going to set up really well for me. I’ll be able to hit driver a lot, get to cover a couple things that some people might not be able to.”

Carlos Ortiz (2020): “I think the golf course, it’s really easy to get out of position and when you’re there, you have to think two steps ahead, try to put it where worst you’re going to have a good look for par instead of trying to push it, because once you push it with these greens. I don’t know if you guys have seen them, but they’re pretty undulated and they all fall off, so if you start pushing it, it’s easy to hit it or go over or to the side and you’re going to have a hard time putting it again on the green. I think I’ve taken my medicine especially today, and I honestly didn’t hit that many fairways and I still was able to save some good pars thinking that way.

Jason Day (2020):”Yeah, definitely the back, I feel like the back side’s a little bit tougher. Obviously scoring opportunities, you get two par 5s on the front, a couple shorter holes on the front as well, but if you can try and get yourself at least 1, 2 or 3 under par going through the front side, you can kind of snag maybe one or two and you end up having a pretty decent round. This is very difficult around the greens with that bermudagrass, and the runoffs, they’re very, very inconsistent in regards to bouncing up the slopes. So if you can leave yourself in some decent locations around the greens, you can have a good opportunity at getting up and down pretty easy or you can leave yourself pretty frustrated at the end of the day.”

Brandt Snedeker (2020): “There’s quite a few of them really. You start putting your finger on a few of them. The par-3 15th is going to be really tough by the end of the week. We played it up today, but it’s just a diabolical green so you have to pay attention to that one. No. 13’s another diabolical green, depending on the pin position it can be really tough. Then you have the long holes here, 1’s a long, tough par 4. I think you can just go about every par 4 and they’re all about over 500 yards if they want to be. The Tour did a good job mixing it up today, moved some tees around so didn’t play the full length, which gave us some scoring opportunities. I don’t anticipate that being the case the rest of the week.

Adam Scott (2020): “Yeah. I mean, just generally the course is relentless. It’s just demanding off the tee. It requires something long and straight, and then you must hit the green in the right spot, too, especially the 9th hole. Dustin’s ball was on the green for a good 10 seconds today and ended up in the water, so you have to be very precise on some of them. The challenge is all around the greens, the course is still kind of growing in and that’s making it very difficult from down in the low areas around the greens. You know, you just have to get a little bit creative this week and somehow get it up on the green and try and save your par.”

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their group and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

  • 2025 – Dickson/Gerard/Mitchell/Pendrith/Tosti – 2AM/3PM Split -5/65 – 350/1, 90/1, 70/1, 60/1 & 150/1.
  • 2024 – Furr/T Moore – AM/PM Split -6/64 – 250/1, 70/1.
  • 2022 – Finau/Noren/Wise – 2AM/1PM Split -5/65 – 30/1 55/1 & 35/1.
  • 2021 – Gooch/Henley/List/Leishman/Trainer – 3AM/2PM Split -5/65 – 40/1 66/1 95/1 60/1 & 400/1.
  • 2020 – Snedeker – PM -5/65  – 90/1
  • 2019 – Cook/Gooch – Both AM -8/64 – 66/1 & 90/1.
  • 2018 – Dunne – PM -8/64  – 90/1
  • 2017 – Fowler – AM  -8/64 – 25/1
  • 2016 – Hoffman – PM -8/64.
  • 2015 – Piercy – AM -9/63.
  • 2014 – Haas/Hoffman – Both PM -7/65.
  • 2013 – Points – AM -8/64.
  • 2012 – Cabrera / Mickelson / Pettersson – 2AM/1PM Split -7/65.
  • 2011 – Walker – PM -9/63.
  • 2010 – Percy / Stadler – AM/PM Split -5/67.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

  • 11 – Scottie Scheffler.
  • 4 – Sam Burns, Jason Day, Billy Horschel, Chris Kirk.
  • 3 – Rickie Fowler, Chris Gotterup, Brooks Koepka.
  • 2 – Harris English, Lucas Glover, Mackenzie Hughes, Peter Malnati, Adam Scott, Gary Woodland.
  • 1 – Wyndham Clark, Nick Dunlap, Nico Echavarria, Austin Eckroat, Tony Finau, Steven Fisk, Ryan Fox, Ben Griffin, Garrick Higgo, Joe Highsmith, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Kurt Kitayama, Patton Kizzire, Min Woo Lee, Shane Lowry, Keith Mitchell, J.T. Poston, Aaron Rai, Davis Riley, Adam Schenk, Adam Svensson, Jhonattan Vegas, Aaron Wise, Kevin Yu, Will Zalatoris.

Other current PGA Tour stop-offs with MiniVerde Bermudagrass greens include TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic of New Orleans) and East Lake (Tour Championship). The old Houston Open host course, namely the GC of Houston (Redstone GC as was), also featured them – although they were overseeded in its April guise. TPC Sawgrass, home of the Players Championship, featured MiniVerde Bermudagrass prior to 2017, as did Quail Hollow at the 2014 through 2016.

2020 saw Memorial Park play firm and fast for the opening 54 holes. A rarity on the PGA Tour! 2021 was slightly different with a storm in the early hours of Thursday depositing 25mm. However Memorial Park still put up a stern defence with greens that were fast on Saturday and extremely lively on Sunday, despite mud-balls on the fairways. 2022 was a similar story as thunderstorms brought rain on Friday afternoon, suspending play for the day. Saturday saw winds of 25mph, but scores of 64 and 65 were available across the weekend.

2024 saw the infamous Texas wind in-play with Friday plus Saturday seeing gusting 27mph south-easterly and Sunday 25 mph southerly winds across the final 54 holes. That translated to Memorial Park playing a quarter of a stroke over par across the tournament – ranking the 12th most difficult course on Tour across the year.

2025 didn’t see the notorious Texas wind that we have become accustomed to on the PGA Tour. Allied to a drenched course on Thursday and Friday plus low rough, scoring was far easier than we have seen previously.

To this point -13/267, -10/270, -16/264, -12/268 and -12/260 totals have won this tournament, so it’s best to keep an eye on the weather forecast.

My Final Houston Open Tips Are As Follows:

Jake Knapp 2pts EW 20/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Jake Knapp seems pretty perfect for this. True he broke plenty of hearts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational when he withdrew minutes before tee-time through illness, and yes he missed the cut at The Players Championship, but when you look at the 2026 season to date trend of Knapp he’s playing great golf.

5 top-11 finishes including 5th at Torrey Pines, 8th at TPC Scottsdale, 8th at Pebble Beach and 6th at Riviera, highlights an upwardly-mobile player who’s due a win soon. Plus the jump down in grade this week can only help, with 3 of those aforementioned top 10s being in Signature Event-level fields. You won’t be surprised to read he ranks 3rd in this field for Strokes Gained Current Form across my 8-week Strokes Gained Tracker.

Long and with a low stinger that works perfectly at Memorial Park, he ranks 2nd for Strokes Gained Putting and 8th for Putting Average so far this season on the PGA Tour. Previous results across driver-heavy tracks likes Torrey Pines (3rd 2024, 5th (2026); Vidanta (1st – 2024) and Detroit Golf Club (4th – 2025) tie in perfectly with recent winners here Finau, Jaeger and Min Woo Lee. 27th here last year, when 10th heading into Sunday and not in the same vein of form.

✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

bet365 New Customer Offer: Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad

Marco Penge 2pts EW 25/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes

DP World Tour followers have known this for a while, but it’s clear that Marco Penge is an elite sort. A 3-time winner across a 16 tournament span last year, Penge is starting to settle on the best Tour on the planet. 16th at Riviera and 4th at Copperhead last week, uprooting the family to Florida, plus the addition of baby boy Romeo seem to be in the rear view mirror for Marco, who I think should be well suited to Memorial Park on his Houston Open debut.

15th for Tee to Green last week at Copperhead which in old money was 2nd for Total Driving, 4th for Greens in Regulation and 1st for Ball Striking were undoubtedly his best statistics in the United States in only his sixth PGA Tour start as a rookie. Plus I like the association with Penge who certainly fits the bill when looking for a bomber who can have a spike week with the putter. He was 4th for Putting Average last week at the Valspar and has ranked in the top 16 for Strokes Gained Putting in 2 of his last 3 appearances.

The sort who, for me, has the ability to contend on any kind of course, I think Memorial Park is an excellent fit for the 27 year-old Englishman.

✅ Limited Offer! Bet £/€10, Get £/€40 in Free Bets using this qualifying link.
✅ For further details read our Ladbrokes promo code page.
✅ Regularly offer 10 places each-way, 1/5 odds on full-field PGA Tour events.

18+. New UK & ROI customers. Min first deposit £10 and place win or each-way bet within 14 days of account registration at min odds 1/2 to get 4 x £10 free bets. Restrictions & T&Cs apply. #Ad

Michael Thorbjornsen 1.5pts EW 33/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Over recent years we’ve seen the likes of Jon Rahm, Sam Burns and Min Woo Lee turn adversity at The Players Championship into a win by the time we got to the second week of April. Rahm was the 54-hole leader at TPC Sawgrass in 2019, shooting a Sunday 76 and finishing 12th, whilst Rory McIlroy won. “Rahmbo” went on to win The Masters a month later. Sam Burns in 2022 was the 36-hole leader at Sawgrass, who went out in the final Sunday group – a Sunday 76 saw the Louisiana man collapse to 26th by the close. He went on the next week to defend his Valspar title at Copperhead.

That takes us on the Min Woo Lee. Last year he was the 36-hole leader at The Players before weekend rounds of 78 and 73 saw the talented Australian finish 20th. 2 weeks later he arrived here at Memorial Park and won his maiden PGA Tour title.

Michael Thorbjornsen follows a similar path this week. Friday and Saturday rounds of 65 and 67 powered the 24 year-old into Sunday’s final group with Ludvig Aberg at The Players. In the most severe pressure Michael has come under he cracked, shooting a Sunday 77 to finished 22nd. But as I have just documented, we have seen players react very quickly to Sawgrass disappointment and in the grand schemes of things, Michael has been making significant strides towards his maiden PGA Tour win over the past 3 months. 3rd in Japan and 7th at Sea Island when playing in the last Sunday group, he was also 3rd in TPC Scottsdale, when the focus was on Hideki Matsuyama throwing the title away to the charging Chris Gotterup.

Powerful, long and straight enough off the tee, Thorbjornsen has ranked 3 times in the top 13 for Ball Striking in his last 12 appearances. He’s also been positive for Strokes Gained Putting in all 5 of his Bermudagrass-base green outings so far in 2025. 16th after 36 holes here on course debut last year – finishing 39th, when arriving with form of 5 MCs and nothing better than 39th in 7 appearances.

✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

bet365 New Customer Offer: Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad

Ryan Fox 1pt EW 75/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

At the price in this depth of field I’ll also take Ryan Fox. Let’s get the doubt out there at the start – he withdrew from The Players because of kidney stones, which he had minor surgery for on Players Thursday. He’s still in the field, so I’m presuming that all is well and if that’s the case, he’s a spot of value.

With 4 top-24 finishes on the PGA Tour this season, Ryan has the power and a little course knowledge to go well this week. 15th here 12 months ago, he was in the final threesome alongside winner Min Woo Lee and Alejandro Tosti. Since then he won the Myrtle Beach Classic (40/1) and the RBC Canadian Open (80/1), so he knows how to win on the PGA Tour.

18th for Driving Distance All Drives, Fox is also 4th for Proximity to Hole from +200 yards, 31st for Greens in Regulation from +200 yards, and in the top 12 for Putting Average plus top 35 for Strokes Gained Putting. So he’s a bomber who can strike great mid to long irons and is a spike putter. In the top 10 for Strokes Gained Putting plus the top 5 for Strokes Gained Tee to Green and Current Form across my 8-week Strokes Gained Tracker.

✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

bet365 New Customer Offer: Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad

Aldrich Potgieter 1pt EW 80/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

As we know with Aldrich Potgieter, he’s an undoubted “horse for a bomber’s course.” Form is pretty much irrelevant with the South African who tends to pop where big driving is required. We first came into contact with Aldrich at the Farmers Insurance Open where he was 3rd heading into Sunday when playing Torrey Pines for the first time as rookie. He finished 15th. The outing later he went to another bomber’s paradise in the form of the Norman Signature Course at Vidanta and led across 36, 54 and 72 holes – before losing to Brian Campbell in a play-off.

So after finishing 6th in Texas at Colonial, it wasn’t a complete surprise that on his outing after he won the Rocket Classic at Detroit Golf Club – a course that has been dominated by bombers such as Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Davis and Tony Finau in the past. From there 2025 ended in obscurity – as is the 21 year-old’s want – but there was a useful sign a couple of outings ago in Presidents Cup year.

5th at the Signature-event Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club in February – another course where long driving is a huge advantage – he ranked 3rd for Off the Tee, 17th for Approach, 11th for tee to Green and 5th for Putting. Obligatory missed cuts thereafter at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass see the South African at an attractive price this week, and for me he’s a classic high-variance bomber and spike putter on a bomber’s track.

✅ New UK customers: Bet £10 Get £50 in free bets for new customers using code BETFRED50 and this qualifying link
✅ For further details read our Betfred promo code> page
✅ Odds compiler takes a different view of many events meaning value can be found
✅ Flexible each-way terms available with 5, 7, 8 and 10 place options to choose from

Betfred New Customer Offer: Significant terms: New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. Full T&Cs apply. #Ad

Alejandro Tosti 0.5pt EW 190/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Argentine Alejandro Tosti is a true horse for the course. Second across our Houston Open Strokes Gained Analysis here at Memorial Park, unsurprisingly he’s finished 2nd (2024) and 5th (2025) in his 2 appearances.

Playing off Q-School Status, Alejandro has missed 6 cuts this year – it’s how he rolls – prior to finishing 30th last week at the Valspar championship. He clearly loves the course and will be buoyed by last week where he ranked 2nd for Strokes Gained Off the Tee. Texas is also where he plays his best golf, finishing 10th in his Korn Ferry promotion season in 2023, 12th at the 2025 Valero Texas Open (10th after 54 holes), and 17th at the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge (11th after 54 holes). He seems to come alive on long courses where there is chaos.

✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

bet365 New Customer Offer: Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 14:05GMT 23.3.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.