Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Investec South African Open Tips 2026

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The second leg of our African triple-header takes us to Stellenbosch GC for the South African Open.

As an event that moves from venue to venue, we have seen Stellenbosch host this event before – although we’re going all the back to 1999 when David Frost held off Scott Dunlap and Jeev Milkha Singh to secure his second SA Open title, so for all intents and purposes this is a new venue for most of the players in attendance this week.

To add to the intrigue, the course hosted the Vodacom Origins event on the Sunshine Tour in 2010 and 2019, the salient points of which I’ve referenced a little further on in this preview, so as ever with these South African co-sanctioned events, some of the locals will have a slight advantage in terms of experience.

Patrick Reed is back this week after his Middle East successes and he heads the market at a general 10/1 from the likes of Angel Ayora, who had another chance to break his duck last week, and Jayden Schaper who, like Reed, is a multiple winner so far in this wraparound DP World Tour season. From there we’re into the 20/1 or above bracket with Dean Burmester, Branden Grace and Hennie du Plessis following on in the betting.

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Course Overview. Stellenbosch Golf Club is one of South Africa’s oldest and most scenic inland courses, located in the Cape Winelands at the foot of the Helderberg and Simonsberg mountains. Founded in 1904 and expanded to 18 holes in 1953 under the direction of Ken Elkin, it’s a traditional layout surrounded by vineyards and mountain scenery and will stretch to 7,213 yards for its par of 70 this week.

Stellenbosch is a classic parkland-style course, characterised by tree-lined fairways, strategic bunkering and gently undulating terrain framed by vineyards. Fairways are relatively narrow and demand accuracy, while many holes play uphill or downhill due to the natural topography. Greens are small and well protected, placing a premium on precise approach play. The course features Kikuyu fairways with Bentgrass greens.

South African Open tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s South African Open that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.

As noted above, this event moves venues regularly so caution should be exercised with this data: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Event Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2025: Dylan Naidoo, 350/1; 2023: Dean Burmester; 2022: Thriston Lawrence; 2021: Daniel van Tonder; 2020: Branden Grace, 14/1; 2019: Louis Oosthuizen, 13/2; 2018: Chris Paisley, 125/1; 2017: Graeme Storm, 150/1; 2016: Brandon Stone, 55/1; 2015: Andy Sullivan, 33/1; 2013: Morten Orum Madsen, 80/1; 2012: Henrik Stenson, 14/1; 2011: Hennie Otto, 33/1; 2010: Ernie Els, 9/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Stellenbosch is here.

Early showers on Thursday should quickly clear to leave largely dry and sunny conditions for the rest of the tournament, with temperatures reaching the mid-70s Fahrenheit in the afternoons. The breeze will pick up to maybe 10/15mph in the heat of the day, however nothing excessive is expected.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. With the 1999 South African Open held here at Stellenbosch not featuring any skill stats for us to review, the only data we have is from the two Sunshine Tour events held here in 2010 and 2019:

  • 2019, Thriston Lawrence (-15, 54 holes). 54.8% fairways (16th), 81.5% greens in regulation (3rd), 60% scrambling (23rd), 1.73 putts per GIR (27th)
  • 2010, Jean Hugo (-17, 54 holes). 69% fairways (3rd), 81.5% greens in regulation (2nd), 90% scrambling (1st), 1.61 putts per GIR (6th)

Stats are patchy for both events, however there’s a tentative leaning towards long game precision from what can be gleaned.

The scoring splits are interesting from the two Sunshine Tour events:

  • 2019, Thriston Lawrence: Par 3: Level; Par 4: -1; Par 5: -14
  • 2010, Jean Hugo: Par 3: -4; Par 4: -8; Par 5: -5

Clearly a very different path to victory from the two most recent winners here and the pattern continued for the close contenders for both events, so it’s fair to say that different styles of play can prevail on this course.

Incoming Form: Some semblance of incoming form has generally served our eventual winners well here with everyone since 2014 having recorded a top 20 finish or thereabouts in one of their last 5 starts:

  • 2025, Dylan Naidoo: MC/18/12/11/27/12/MC/2/42/MC/MC/32
  • 2023, Dean Burmester: 54/15/14/17/7/3/16/7/18/WD/17/1
  • 2022, Thriston Lawrence: MC/8/1/MC/MC/20/MC/MC/6/13/41/33
  • 2021, Daniel van Tonder: MC/21/45/21/27/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/19/MC
  • 2020, Christiaan Bezuidenhout: 28/MC/22/20/MC/37/55/MC/40/38/15/1
  • 2020, Branden Grace: MC/51/48/30/MC/60/MC/MC/46/MC/39/3
  • 2019. Louis Oosthuizen: 5/13/16/28/24/28/31/58/32/5/29/3
  • 2018, Chris Paisley: MC/55/5/3/MC/12/MC/MC/58/MC/23/MC
  • 2017, Graeme Storm: 17/7/71/36/62/MC/MC/25/MC/22/4/MC
  • 2016, Brandon Stone: 7/35/2/9/6/12/MC/23/MC/6/1/18
  • 2015, Andy Sullivan: MC/52/11/MC/3/17/51/47/67/4/21/MC
  • 2014, Morten Orum Madsen: 28/58/38/24/MC/14/MC/MC/16/12/51/63

The most tenuous form was that of Daniel van Tonder in 2021 who’d missed 6 of 7 cuts but had show some form in Dubai on his penultimate start, and Chris Paisley who’d missed 4 of his last 6 cuts, however he’d also shown flashes of form in Hong Kong on his penultimate start. Despite being a 350/1 shot in places ahead of his victory last year, Dylan Naidoo had finished runner-up at the Mauritius Open a couple of months before.

Event Form: Local favourites Dean Burmester, Branden Grace and Louis Oosthuizen had each come close to winning their home Open before their respective successes. Form for the other winners is variable, however both Graeme Storm and Andy Sullivan’s event form at least hinted at something better to come:

  • 2025, Dylan Naidoo: MC/MC/MC/30/MC/31
  • 2023, Dean Burmester: MC/66/10/4/54/MC/MC/4/4/5
  • 2022, Thriston Lawrence: MC/MC/36/DQ/19
  • 2021, Daniel van Tonder: MC/MC/41/55/MC/55/34/59/MC/MC
  • 2020, Christiaan Bezuidenhout: MC/2/37/63/MC/MC
  • 2020, Branden Grace: 40/MC/6/21/21/9/65/15/4/2/7
  • 2019, Louis Oosthuizen: MC/14/32/12/18/5/3/65/15/3
  • 2018, Chris Paisley: 41/MC
  • 2017, Graeme Storm: MC/4/MC/39/MC/32
  • 2016, Brandon Stone: 39/MC/MC
  • 2015, Andy Sullivan: 47/12
  • 2014, Morten Orum Madsen: Debut

With a fairly placid forecast following pre-event rain, I suspect we’ll see a relatively scoreable course for those players who can keep their ball in play. The reduction of par to 70 with just two Par-5s may stifle some of the more aggressive sorts a little, however as ever we’ll have to see how the course actually plays when we get under way on Thursday.

My final Investec South African Open tips are as follows:

Jayden Trey Schaper 3pts EW 14/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Boylesports

It doesn’t take much analysis to find the link between our last seven South African Open champions, and seeing Jayden Schaper add his name to the recent list which reads Dylan Naidoo, Dean Burmester, Thriston Lawrence, Daniel van Tonder, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Branden Grace and Louis Oosthuizen wouldn’t surprise me one iota.

At third in the betting, the 24 year-old may need to overcome the form of Patrick Reed and the potential of Angel Ayora if he’s going to succeed in becoming the eighth successive home-grown winner of the South African Open, however I see no reason as to why he can’t or indeed won’t realise that dream here this week.

It took Jayden until December last year to finally break through on the DP World Tour, beating Shaun Norris at the Alfred Dunhill Championship courtesy of an eagle in the play-off, and he repeated the exact same feat a week later to defeat Ryan Gerard at the first extra hole in Mauritius. Mightily impressive it has to be said, and although a little drop off in form was to be expected, 4th at the Dubai Desert Classic in Rolex-level company and 9th last time out in Qatar suggests to me that he’s not quite ready to dine out on his achievements just yet.

As with many in this week’s field, this will be Schaper’s competitive debut here at Stellenbosch, however I think the course suits his long-game strengths which have recently been augmented by a significant improvement with the putter – top-9 performances for SG Putting in five of his last seven starts gives some clue as to how and why he’s stepped up a level of late.

A PGA Tour card is very much on the horizon for the South African given how he’s started the season, and how better than to rubber-stamp his status for 2027 at this early stage by taking out his home Open Championship.

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Thriston Lawrence 2pts EW 28/1 with Betfred

Last week’s headline selection Thriston Lawrence couldn’t get anything going over the weekend, having opened with rounds of 65/66 to sit in 8th place and very much in contention at the halfway point, and I’ll stick with him for another week on a course that he has winning form on.

A tie for 29th in Kenya has kept the 29 year-old away from the bookies’ knife this week when it comes to his odds, yet it was only really a flat Saturday round that kept from making a better fist of it at Karen Country Club and he should be buoyed by a closing round of 66 where he hit 83% of greens which was bettered by just 4 players in the field.

Stellenbosch was the scene of the Nelspruit native’s breakthrough win on the Sunshine Tour back in 2019, shooting rounds of 68,68, 65 to win by a stroke. Five DP World Tour titles have followed since that point in time – including taking this title at Blair Atholl in 2022 – and I suspect he can pick the positives out of last week’s performance and build on it here by contending for yet another title.

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Oliver Bekker 1pt EW 100/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

I’ll continue my team of South Africans with yet another local who I think could contend here this week in the shape of Oliver Bekker.

The 41 year-old has now won 9 times on the Sunshine Tour following his most recent success in Durban over the weekend, and he’s seemingly found another gear in recent times having also won on the Australasian Tour back in October. Last week’s success was also co-sanctioned with the Challenge Tour making it his second victory at that level, and perhaps while his game is at a peak he can seriously threaten to make a belated breakthrough at DP World Tour level.

Bekker lives in Stellenbosch and is affiliated to the club here this week, so will undoubtedly have an advantage in terms of course knowledge and local support, plus the benefit of being able to sleep in his own bed between rounds. He finished 3rd here in 2010, shooting progressive rounds of 71/68/65, and followed that up with a 21st place finish in 2019 where another slow start put paid to his chances having opened with a 72. His Thursday rounds have been generally much better of late, with 66 to open at the Alfred Dunhill Championship putting him in the top 10 after day 1, and an opening 65 last week providing the foundation for his victory.

Backing a player to lift himself immediately after a victory is always a risk, however he has won back-to-back starts in the past – back in 2017 – albeit with a short gap in-between starts, plus two of the past five winners of this had won on their previous outing.

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Ryan van Velzen 1pt EW 170/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Finally, of the younger local talents teeing it up this week, Ryan van Velzen peaks my interest the most.

The 24 year-old won twice on the Big Easy Tour as a teenager before progressing to the Sunshine Tour where he’s won twice and lost a play-off against Mikael Lindberg for a third title in 2024, in a year where he won the Sunshine Tour Order of Merit.

The next step of course is to break through at DP World Tour level, a feat which has to date proven elusive, however his best efforts have undoubtedly come in South African co-sanctioned events and this week presents another opportunity in that respect. 2nd behind Dean Burmester in this event back in 2023 is a case in point, as was his runner-up finish to Shaun Norris at the Alfred Dunhill Championship the following year.

This will be Ryan’s competitive debut here at Stellenbosch but this layout could suit, particular as he’s recorded top-4 GIR performance in four of his past five starts at all levels, including last week at the Magical Kenya Open where he ended up in a tie for 18th place overall.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:10GMT 23.2.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.