Paul Williams

Paul Williams' ISPS Handa Championship Tips 2024

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The DP World Tour returns this week after its extended break either side of The Masters, heading east to Japan and then China this week and next, before the Tour makes way for the US PGA Championship in the middle of May.

The ISPS Handa Championship at Taiheiyo Club in Gotemba, Japan is our task this week, an event that made its belated bow last year following the pandemic, albeit on a different track to this year’s renewal. A field of 156 will assemble this week with a fairly even split of DP World Tour regulars alongside some of the best players from the Japan Tour.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Matthieu Pavon head the betting at 12/1 and 14/1 respectively this week, as the PGA Tour pair return from the RBC Heritage where they recorded finishes of 28th and 49th respectively. Jordan Smith and Tom McKibbin follow in the betting alongside local hopefuls Takumi Kanaya and Keita Nakajima in what looks to be an intriguing betting heat.

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Before we go into the detail surrounding the ISPS Handa Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System during Major season. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, 6,300-strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Course Overview. The Gotemba Course at Taiheiyo Club is a 7,262 yard par 70 Shunsuke Kato original which received a Rees Jones and Bryce Swanson renovation in 2018, taking the course from a fairly straightforward par 72 to a stiff par 70.

Parkland in style as so many Japanese courses are, the track is tree-lined with stunning views of Mount Fuji. Bunkers and water protect many of the greens, with run-off areas meaning that players who miss the putting surfaces will be presented with different options when trying to get up and down.

Just two par-5s on the course following the renovation means that the 3rd and the 18th are the remaining long holes for players to try to gain a shot or two. The 6th and 11th were previously par-5s that have now been converted into long par-4s at 510 and 505 yards respectively.

Course Winners (JGTO): 2023: Shugo Imahira (-12); 2022: Ryo Ishikawa (-8); 2021: Hideto Tanihara (-6); 2020: Jinichiro Kozuma (-8); 2019: Takumi Kanaya (-13); 2018: Tatsunori Nukaga (-9, 54 holes); 2017: Satoshi Kodaira (-18); 2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-23); 2015: Shingo Katayama (14, 54 holes)

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s ISPS Handa Championship which might help point us in the right direction. Course stats relate to events held here on the Japan Tour since 2010: Current Form | First Round Leader Stats | Course Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Our new predictor model is also available for this event – give it a try here.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

The most significant weather could happen on Wednesday of tournament week with heavy rain pushing through the area, which promises to dump up to an inch on the course right before the tournament starts.

From there the weather is set fair, save for the odd shower on Saturday, with temperatures nudging 70 Fahrenheit accompanied by light winds.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. From a traditional stats perspective, we do have some data from the Japan Tour events held here over the relatively recent past:

  • 2023, Shugo Imahira. 272 yards (47th), 67.9% fairways (24th), 75% greens in regulation (4th), 77.8% scrambling (1st), 1.74 putts per GIR (12th).
  • 2022, Ryo Ishikawa. 306 yards (14th), 64.3% fairways (22nd), 68.1% greens in regulation (24th), 65.2% scrambling (2nd), 1.76 putts per GIR (14th).
  • 2021, Hideto Tanihara. 288 yards (41st), 78.6% fairways (1st), 75% greens in regulation (2nd), 55.6% scrambling (9th), 1.74 putts per GIR (8th).
  • 2020, Jinichiro Kozuma. 55.4% fairways (47th), 70.8% greens in regulation (6th), 71.4% scrambling (2nd), 1.75 putts per GIR (8th).
  • 2019, Takumi Kanaya. 284 yards (40th), 64.3% fairways (28th), 73.6% greens in regulation (4th), 52.6% scrambling (30th), 1.68 putts per GIR (3rd).
  • 2018, Tatsunori Nukaga. 288 yards (13th), 50% fairways (55th), 72.2% greens in regulation (5th), 66.7% scrambling (9th), 1.79 putts per GIR (24th).
  • 2017, Satoshi Kodaira. 297 yards (4th), 64.3% fairways (9th), 75% greens in regulation (3rd), 72.2% scrambling (15th), 1.69 putts per GIR (3rd).
  • 2016, Hideki Matsuyama. 301 yards (1st), 60.7% fairways (35th), 77.8% greens in regulation (7th), 68.8% scrambling (18th), 1.61 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2015, Shingo Katayama. 266 yards (39th), 69.1% fairways (8th), 68.5% greens in regulation (23rd), 94.1% scrambling (1st), 1.70 putts per GIR (18).

With a real mix of driving distances from our winners, in regular conditions it would appear that this course holds no major bias for longer hitters. Instead the recipe both pre- and post-renovation would appear to be maximising GIR and Scrambling, with last year’s winner Shugo Imahira a perfect example of that by ranking 4th and 1st on those two metrics respectively.

Current Form Of Winners: Incoming form of the winners here at Gotemba since 2015 is varied, however in general it’s been the more in-form players who have won the lower-scoring renewals, whereas the tougher years have produced some less obvious winners:

  • 2023, Shugo Imahira. 15/MC/25/28/4/63/4/27/4/18/68/28
  • 2022, Ryo Ishikawa. 59/33/20/4/16/5/2/MC/WD/MC/29/MC
  • 2021, Hideto Tanihara. 30/30/48/WD/MC/25/24/50/61/23/5/7
  • 2020, Jinichiro Kozuma. 26/18/57/22/25/28/13/23/MC/42/67/27
  • 2019, Takumi Kanaya. MC/2/11/19/MC/24/MC/17/MC/58/14/MC/40
  • 2018, Tatsunori Nukaga. 18/MC/57/MC/WD/MC/MC/42/MC/14/MC/MC
  • 2017, Satoshi Kodaira. 48/5/2/9/4/35/1/10/3/41/5/20
  • 2016, Hideki Matsuyama. MC/42/MC/4/3/MC/15/24/5/1/2
  • 2015, Shingo Katayama. MC/6/25/MC/18/11/7/2/6/14/37/6

Course Form Of Winners: With so many debutants this week from the DP World Tour, course form is understandably patchy overall for all but the local Tour players. Interestingly though, 4 of winners back to 2015 had previously won on this course which would suggest that positive course form is no bad thing:

  • 2023, Shugo Imahira. 25/24/8/8/12/36/23/19
  • 2022, Ryo Ishikawa. 38/5/4/1/8/1/2/60/24/MC/MC/MC/14
  • 2021, Hideto Tanihara. MC/47/28/24/8/19/21/18/25/9/1/24/17/MC/40
  • 2020, Jinichiro Kozuma. 13/MC/28
  • 2019, Takumi Kanaya. MC
  • 2018, Tatsunori Nukaga. MC/59/MC/48/43/MC
  • 2017, Satoshi Kodaira. 38/52/3
  • 2016, Hideki Matsuyama. MC/1/4/28
  • 2015, Shingo Katayama. MC/58/38/4/11/6/3/10/1/21/19/24/10/35

A new course for more than two-thirds of the field this week means that this is undoubtedly a riskier event to bet on than some others, however a challenging par 70 that requires some patience will appeal to some more than others.

The course design doesn’t overly lend itself to being overpowered by the longer players, although pre-event rain might well provide a little more advantage than intended, particularly for the first day or two. Ultimately though, hitting greens and having the range of short game skills to salvage par when that’s not possible could well be the key to unlocking this week’s test.

My selections are as follows:

Christiaan Bezuidenhout 4pts win 14/1 with Unibet

There’s an omnipresent risk with the DP World Tour that on any given week a player who’s been teeing it up at a higher level can simply fly in and take the title before returning to wherever they came.

Last year’s ISPS Championship is a case in point, of which there are many: Lucas Herbert, who had finished 63rd at Harbour Town the week before on the PGA Tour having progressed through to the knockout stages of the now defunct WGC Matchplay on his previous start, jetted into PGM Ishioka as a 20/1 chance and left with the trophy.

The Australian isn’t here to defend his title this week and the event has moved from Ishioka to Gotemba, however the same dilemma presents itself this week with both Matthieu Pavon and Christiaan Bezuidenhout flying in from Hilton Head.

Pavon is the highest ranked of the PGA Tour playing pair at 22nd in the OWGR, having won the Farmers Insurance Open earlier this year before finishing a creditable 12th at Augusta before last week’s effort, however my preference is for Bezuidenhout who at 58th in the world rankings has both the US Open and Open Championship yet to secure qualification for, with next month’s US PGA Championship seemingly a formality if previous years’ criteria are applied. For reference and (almost) happy coincidence, Lucas Herbert has ranked 59th heading into this event last year.

For me, the South African is better suited to what’s deemed to be a challenging test where pars are more likely to be the overriding currency rather than birdies and eagles. At 14th on the PGA Tour for Scrambling for the season to date, Christiaan can undoubtedly get the ball up and down more than most, and from a variety of positions and lies which will be of use here when greens are inevitably missed.

Although pre-event rain threatens to soften the track ahead of the first round and make the task a little easier for this week’s competitors, overall this course is no pushover and a cursory glance at the 29 year-old’s 3 DP World Tour level wins fit this type of task like a glove. Wins at Valderrama (2019), Leopard Creek and the South African Open (both 2020) came by 6, 4 and 5 strokes respectively in weeks where scoring didn’t get remotely out of control, and at anything approaching his best he could record another runaway victory here this week in my view.

Runner-up at The American Express was an impressive way to begin his 2024 PGA Tour campaign, and after some middling performances in decent company he’s more recently finished 13th at TPC Sawgrass and 9th at the Valspar Championship to suggest that he’s been competitive at a level far beyond this week’s task.

Like many, Christiaan is making his course debut this week, however 16th at the 2021 Olympics and 29th at the PGA Tour’s ZOZO Championship the following year are both positive outings in Japan and, like the bookies, I make him the man to beat this week. RESULT: T3

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Yannik Paul 2pts EW 33/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

There’s a temptation to back either or both of Keita Nakajima and Takumi Kanaya, with both local men coming into this off the back of impressive wins on their last starts. Nakajima’s Indian Open win makes him the slightly better prospect this week given that the victory was at DP World Tour level, however Kanaya is a winner at this week’s venue back from his amateur days and the chance for both is plain to see.

The most off-putting aspect when it comes to the Japanese pair is that despite similarly strong cases for Rikuya Hoshino and Kanaya himself 12 months ago, the only home player to finish in the each-way paying places was the unfancied Hiroshi Iwata who was available at 600/1 before the event, eventually finishing in a tie for 4th.

Of course this year could be totally different, however my preference is to back Yannik Paul who’s shown some sparks of form so far in 2024 as he looks to go one better than last year and grab a PGA Tour card at the end of the season.

So impressive was the German’s play last year that he was firmly in the conversation for a Ryder Cup spot until a back injury slowed him down, resulting in a dip in form that both thwarted his chances of making it to Rome as well as meaning he narrowly missed out on securing one of the coveted 10 cards. Fully fit and with his game on the ascendancy once again, I can see Paul grabbing a second DP World Tour title before too long with this week setting up nicely for the 30 year-old.

Yannik’s maiden – and to date only – title came in Mallorca in the autumn of 2022 on a track that shares some agronomy and characteristics with this week’s task, not least in that the Son Muntaner Golf Club was no birdie-fest with a measured game required to get to that year’s 15-under total.

14th for the season for SG Tee to Green, 7th for SG Approach and 5th for GIR tells us how the Frankfurt man is likely to tackle this week’s task, and that’s no bad starting position given what we can glean from the Japan Tour events held here. Yannik is no slouch around the greens either, despite a relatively low ranking in the early part of 2024 – 26th for Scrambling for the full 2023 season is a better measure of his short game in my view.

8th at the Dubai Invitational, 4th in Ras al Khaimah and 10th last time out in India suggest to me that his game’s not far away at all and he acquitted himself well on his Japanese debut in this event last year, eventually finishing in a tie for 6th. RESULT: T36

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Haotong Li 1pt EW 100/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

Ordinarily matching Haotong Li to any statistic other than putting is a challenge as he can be so inconsistent (read ‘wild’) from off the tee and with his approaches. Interesting things are happening in the Chinese star’s game of late though and dare I say it, something approaching consistency may be creeping in.

Now I’m not going to claim that the 28 year-old has started churning out Scottie Scheffler style rounds over a prolonged period of time, however seven starts in 2014 have seen seven paid weekends and within that there’s been plenty to like – alongside the odd disaster of course.

14th at the Dubai Invitational was a solid start to the year, and Li followed that up at the Emirates the following week by leading after the first round and eventually finishing 7th at what was Rolex Series level.

63 to open in Macau last month on the Asian Tour was another first round lead before he dropped away, and he was in a handy 13th position heading into the final day in Singapore the week after before shooting 75 on the Sunday.

17th last week at the Saudi Open was another positive, well for the first three days at least. Rounds of 68, 65 and 70 put Haotong in 3rd heading into Sunday, however with John Catlin lapping the field ahead of him it was another disappointing finish.

What’s noticeable statistically though is that his long game is undoubtedly sharper of late, ranking 35th on Tour for SG Off the Tee and 6th for SG Approach, which coupled with his prowess on and around the greens could make him a real danger here on course debut.

3 wins over the years at European/DP World Tour level have all come in the 20s under par which I can’t see happening this week, despite a potentially soft course to start with, however a 2014 victory on home soil on the Asian Tour at 9-under, plus three further Chinese Tour wins at between 10- and 13-under par, suggest the we shouldn’t pigeon-hole him as a flat track bully and that he has a chance here this week. RESULT: T18

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Kazuma Kobori 1pt EW 125/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

I must confess, I know very little about Kazuma Kobori, however his record so far in his short professional career suggests that we may have a superstar on our hands.

Born in Japan, the 22 year-old moved to New Zealand as a youngster and quickly progressed through the amateur ranks both there and in Australia, culminating in last year’s wins at the Australian Amateur and Western Amateur, as well as claiming individual medallist at the Eisenhower Trophy.

There was more than a subtle hint that the boy could play golf when he won the New Zealand PGA Championship as a 17 year-old amateur back in 2019, and having turned professional last November he’s hit the ground running with three wins already this year on the Australasian circuit. He comes into this week with the chance to secure an early start to his forthcoming DP World Tour career by winning this week, having already grabbed himself a card for next season courtesy of that hat-trick of wins in January and February.

Results from the limited co-sanctioned events he’s played at DP World Tour level thus far are nothing to write home about, however the step up will undoubtedly be a learning curve. Returning to his motherland for this week’s test might just be the spark that he needs to record a big personal best at this level, and given the price on offer I’m happy to pay to find out if that’s the case or not. RESULT: MC

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 13:45BST 22.4.24 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.