Course Overview. Chervo Golf Club is the latest new addition to the European Tour’s schedule, once again largely due to the hotel facilities that will enable the bubble to operate efficiently and effectively.
A stone’s throw from Lake Garda, the parkland track was designed by Kurt Rossknecht and boasts 36 holes spread over three 9-hole courses that cater for the tourist trade first and foremost. This week’s test is listed as a 7,434 yard par 72 to make it a test for the professionals, however as a resort course first and foremost, with wide and forgiving fairways leading to fairly straightforward greens, this should primarily be a test of birdie-making.
The relatively exposed nature of this track sets it apart from the more regular tight, tree-lined tests that we often see for the Italian Open and other Rossknecht designs at Bad Griesbach used for the Porsche European Open 2015/16 and Paul Lawrie Match Play 2017, and München Eichenried which is on the course rotation for the BMW International Open, may give better clues as to the type of player required here this week.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Italian Open that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event, however as previously noted this year’s venue is hosting this event for the first time: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Current Form/Event Form.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2019: Bernd Wiesberger, 35/1; 2018: Thorbjorn Olesen, 80/1; 2017, Tyrrell Hatton: 18/1; 2016: Francesco Molinari, 25/1; 2015: Rikard Karlberg, 70/1; 2014: Hennie Otto, 80/1; 2013: Julien Quesne, 80/1; 2012: Gonzalo Fdez-Castano, 40/1; 2011: Robert Rock, 66/1; 2010: Fredrik Andersson Hed, 66/1.
For a full list of winners’ odds on the European Tour click here.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Brescia is here. Rain will be the main feature this week as Italy gets a dose of autumnal weather after a bright enough start on Thursday. Friday and Saturday are forecast to be the wettest days at this point in time, with slow moving systems depositing drizzly rain and showers to all. Winds will be light and temperatures will struggle to venture much beyond 60 Fahrenheit.
Incoming Form. The incoming form of our recent Italian Open winners is mixed, however all but Robert Rock in 2011 had recorded a top-10 finish in their previous 8 starts.
Last year’s winner Bernd Wiesberger had already won twice in the year before converting his hat-trick at Olgiata GC 12 months ago, and although he’d missed the cut at the Dunhill Links on his previous start, he also maintained the top-10 trend noted above:
- 2019, Bernd Wiesberger: 1/8/76/16/2/1/32/30/MC/5/17/MC
- 2018, Thorbjorn Olesen: 5/12/36/53/29/MC/10/MC/46/37/MC/60
- 2017, Tyrrell Hatton: 41/30/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/36/MC/3/8/1
- 2016, Francesco Molinari: 42/17/7/55/MC/34/8/2/36/22/47/MC
- 2015, Rikard Karlberg: MC/21/43/MC/MC/MC/10/MC/9/14/13/36
- 2014, Hennie Otto: 37/37/37/9/5/13/41/13/57/WD/MC/39
- 2013, Julien Quesne: 9/27/MC/MC/68/9/WD/MC/MC/58/41/7
- 2012, Gonzalo Fdez-Castano: 53/MC/2/MC/3/MC/31/54/55/62/76/5
- 2011, Robert Rock: MC/MC/45/20/58/40/19/13/52/29/45/MC
- 2010, Fredrik Andersson-Hed: 35/5/4/MC/4/18/44/7/28/MC/13/17
Event Form. Recent renewals are perhaps a little irrelevant as we’re playing on a new track for the event, however the Italian Open has often been played on a similar style layout with tree-lined fairways and challenging greens. It’s interesting to note that four of the past eight winners of the Italian Open had already previously won the title in their career and six of the past ten had recorded a top-3 finish or better in this event before their victory.
Other multiple winners of this event include Ian Poulter, Bernhard Langer, Sam Torrance and Sandy Lyle and it’s clearly an event, or style of event, that can favour the same types of players year after year.
- 2019, Bernd Wiesberger: MC/15/63/23/6/14/45
- 2018, Thorbjorn Olesen: 2/53/67/MC/32
- 2017, Tyrrell Hatton: MC/45
- 2016, Francesco Molinari: MC/MC/23/MC/13/17/1/3/MC/6/8/46/16/18/20
- 2015, Rikard Karlberg: MC
- 2014, Hennie Otto: MC/47/MC/33/1/MC/7/46/22/8
- 2013, Julien Quesne: MC/MC
- 2012, Gonzalo Fdez-Castano: 6/1/MC
- 2011, Robert Rock: 48/37/MC/56/51/2/17
- 2010, Fredrik Andersson-Hed: MC/9/28/MC/3/MC/54
With no historical tournament data from the course this week to study, we’re going to have to rely on specification only. Italian Opens often play quite similar regardless of the track used, however this week’s layout is far more forgiving and exposed than the normal style of course used, and for me this puts more emphasis on power, proximity and putting over driving accuracy.
Despite the rain in the forecast, there’s little wind and a soft course should encourage a lot of birdies. Siding with players who are putting well and have shown signs of shooting low scores lately could be the winning formula.
Matt Wallace rates as the short-priced favourite this week and rightly so, however whether the Englishman lifts himself immediately after a disappointing final day at Fairmont St Andrews remains to be seen, so I’ve dipped a little further down the list for this week’s team.
My selections are as follows: