Italian Open Tips 2020

The ‘Bubble’ has been a challenge for some players more than others. The Sam Horsfields and John Catlins of this world have clearly adapted fantastically well to both snare multiple wins since lockdown, and others like Aaron Rai and Rasmus Hojgaard have further enhanced their growing reputations with some classy performances.

Getting into the right mental state, and potentially for a prolonged period of time, has clearly taken its toll on some players and Jordan Smith was one of those who was more vocal about the challenges than others. Valderrama is hardly the most forgiving of tracks when you’re not in the right space mentally and 11-over through his opening 14 holes was the catalyst for the Englishman to call it a day and talk about the challenges the situation poses.

Getting things off of his chest seems to have done the job with a solid 36^th place finish in Portugal leading to an impressive 7^th place finish at Galgorm Castle for the Irish Open. He led that week after the first round – as he’d also done at the Wales Open a month before – to give us another hint that his underlying game is in decent shape.

13^th at Wentworth a fortnight ago was the 27 year-old’s best effort in Surrey from 4 attempts and his first hole in one as a professional on the 2^nd on Friday clearly buoyed him judging by his comments on social media. 15^th for putting average was his best effort relative to the field for over a year with the flat stick and a warming putter ahead of this week’s task can’t be a bad sign whatsoever.

The Somerset man’s best finish last year was 3^rd at the BMW International Open, another resort course from the hand of Kurt Rossknecht who designed this week’s test, and his one European Tour win came at the Porsche European Open in 2017, beating the ultimate flat track bully Alex Levy, albeit on a non-Rossknecht design.

Event form of 21/8/24 in typically stronger fields in this event in the past suggests a level of comfort in this part of the world, with that best effort of 8^th coming just a few miles away at Gardagolf Country Club and, with rain in the forecast, siding with an Englishman who’ll have played in plenty of wet weather in his time may reap dividends. RESULT: MC

Of the talented crop of young European Tour maidens, Adri Arnaus is one of those who would surprise nobody should he get over the line at this level in the near future.

3 wins from 83 professional starts have all come at a lower level, granted, however 3 runner-up finishes in his rookie season at the top level last year did more than hint that he was well capable on this stage, and 3^rd earlier this year at the Dubai Desert Classic did little to counter that point.

Those 4 efforts – played out at the Andalucia Masters, Kenya Open and Czech Masters, as well as the aforementioned finish at the Emirates in Dubai – show a level of diversity with differing styles of course and green types, however for a longer hitter I’d still err on the side of tracks such as this week’s test being the 26 year-old’s best fit.

The Barcelona man admitted that he’d lost a bit of power and sharpness during lockdown, however a redoubling of effort in the gym and also in practice has seen a return to more typical driving stats from his last 3 starts – top-5 in terms of Driving Distance from those 3 efforts – and there have been some good signs of impending form despite some pretty crooked efforts from off the tee.

23^rd at the Irish Open featured a closing round of 65, beaten by just two other players in the field, and after a slow start in Scotland, rounds of 66/67 on Friday and Saturday hoisted the Spaniard into 6^th place heading into the final day. Sunday didn’t work out for Adri, however 80.6% GIR led the field at Renaissance and he showed more flashes of form at Wentworth by leading after the first round before slowly drifting away. Remember, these efforts have all been made with some pretty wayward driving, so the wider and more forgiving track here beside Lake Garda should set up nicely for some more attacking 2^nd shots.

Having graduated from the Alps Tour, Arnaus has more experience than most of playing in Italy – indeed 2 of his 3 career wins came in the country and he sat 4^th heading into the final day on the Italian Challenge in 2018 when he stepped up a level. 48^th on Italian Open debut last year was a fair effort in loftier company, however this year’s venue should suit much better and I’d expect a strong personal best here this week. RESULT: T5

Last Sunday’s win by Adrian Otaegui was rather unusual for the European Tour as the Spaniard calmly accumulated shots by virtue of his red-hot putter and gently eased himself away from his nearest rivals with cool aplomb, rather than being the man holding the hot potato on the 72nd hole, which has been more often the case of late. Although it was Otaegui’s 3^rd European Tour title, it was his first in standard strokeplay format and that previous winning experience may well have been a factor in his success.

Now I can’t claim that Maverick Antcliff has the same level of European Tour experience and success as Otaegui, he does however have 3 recent China Tour wins to his name and we’ve seen plenty of times how success at a lower level can make winning at European Tour level that little bit easier when the chance arises.

13^th at the SA Open was the first time we saw anything tangible from the Queenslander on the European Tour, having gained his card by virtue of topping the China Golf Tour Order of Merit last year. Finding 90.3% of Greens in Regulation on his way to 31^st place at the Celtic Classic told us a little more about the 27 year-old’s iron-play post-lockdown and 9^th place at the Open de Portugal hinted at more to come from the Augusta State graduate.

3^rd at the Irish Open, where he had a live chance until bogeys on the 11^th and 12^th on Sunday left him with a little too much to do as John Catlin pulled away to win his second title in quick succession, will have taught him much though and to his credit he still produced a mid-division finish in Scotland the week after.

Strong iron-play has been the main catalyst for his success and 17^th and 6^th for Total Driving on those most recent two efforts respectively suggests that he has the raw materials from off the tee to set up a lot of birdie opportunities here. Top-20 performances in terms of putting average for those two weeks is also positive and the fact that we’re heading to a neutral venue in terms of course history on Tour and playing style should play into the hands of the less experienced players on the circuit.

Make no mistake though, the Australian has proven that he can both hold his form and convert an opportunity from his exploits in China, so with a couple of weeks’ rest and reflection, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him back in the mix here this week. RESULT: T54

The evidence for a strong performance this week from Justin Walters is pretty good. Now if and when that strong performance arrives this week, whether that translates into a long-awaited European Tour victory remains to be seen, however let’s give him the benefit of any doubt given the price on offer and hope that he’s learnt from his playoff defeat to Rasmus Hojgaard at the end of August.

In truth it was a wobbly final round from the South African in Sutton Coldfield, however it took a play-off for him to finally be defeated. That was Justin’s 4^th runner-up finish at this level, however with 2 Sunshine Tour wins in the past it’s evident that he can get over the line when everything aligns.

Two of those near misses came at Vilamoura, another exposed and scoreable track that rewards aggressive golf. On both occasions he was sadly mourning the loss of a parent, something that helped galvanise his game; this week we have another, somewhat happier, life event that might help focus his mind as Walters turns 40 on Friday, and as we’ve seen in the past, milestone birthdays can sometimes act as a timely shot in the arm to a player’s game.

In terms of a something a little more tangible ahead of this week for those of you who prefer stats as opposed to rhetoric, Justin hits the ball an ample distance to tackle the dimensions of this track (36^th on Tour for Driving Distance) and hits a lot of greens when playing well, both of which are good attributes for this week’s task. He can also putt very nicely when confident with the flat stick, so 9 birdies in his final 12 holes last week in Scotland for a Sunday 63, that was matched only by eventual winner Adrian Otaegui, has to give him a lot of heart as he arrives here in Italy.

10^th last year at the Italian Open was the 39 year-old’s best effort in this event – at Rolex Series level to boot – and he also has a 5^th place finish in the country back at the Challenge Tour Grand Final back in 2012. Both efforts came at this time of the year, as did his two runner-up finishes in Portugal, and perhaps this time he can go one better if he finds the door ajar on Sunday. RESULT: MC