Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Italian Open Tips 2025

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After a short break as we took in the US Open, the DP World Tour is back this week with the Italian Open which is one of the more established events on Tour, having started life in 1925 and joining the European circuit right at the start in 1972. In an event that historically hops from venue to venue, this year we’re heading to pastures new at Argentario GC, so event form students should consider the history stats accordingly.

In lieu of any standout favourite this week, many bookmakers are offering 20/1 the field with Jordan Smith the uneasy market leader with most layers. Recent winners Ewen Ferguson and Marco Penge follow in what can only be described as a very open betting heat.

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Course Overview. Argentario Golf Club is a parkland course opened in 2006 which sits above the Orbetello Lagoon on Monte Argentario in southern Tuscany, just inland from the Tyrrhenian coast.

At 6,857 yards this Par 71 is on the short side for a modern track, however as the only PGA-licensed course in Italy it attracts a lot of tourist trade and it’s a resort course first and foremost, offering a range of teeing options to different calibre players.

As part of a 10-year plan to get the course ready for its DP World Tour debut, Argentario GC has hosted the BMW Ladies Italian Open on the LET in 2008, the Senior Italian Open in 2022, and most relevant for some of this week’s field, the Italian Challenge Open on the Challenge Tour last year – the final leaderboard for that event can be found here.

Although the course offers views of the sea and is affected by the coastal breeze, it features tree-lined fairways and is built into rolling hills with Mediterranean vegetation and water the penalty when veering off the straight and narrow, making this more a test of strategy and precision than bomb-and-gouge. Greens are relatively small and multi-tiered with a Bentgrass base.

Four Par-5s and five Par-3s explains the overall Par of 71, with the long holes all a fair challenge at between 575 and 632 yards, locking up a fair amount of the overall yardage on the course. 4 sub-400 yard Par-4s will offer scoring opportunities, particularly the 3rd and 16th which measure 312 and 316 yards respectively, with many of the others requiring just a wedge after a successful drive into the fairway.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Italian Open that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.

As previously noted, this year’s venue is hosting the Italian Open for the first time so event history should be considered accordingly: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Current Form/Event Form.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2024: Marcel Siem, 175/l; 2023: Adrian Meronk, 22/1; 2022: Robert MacIntyre, 50/1; 2021: Nicolai Hojgaard, N/A*; 2020: Ross McGowan, 750/1; 2019: Bernd Wiesberger, 35/1; 2018: Thorbjorn Olesen, 80/1; 2017, Tyrrell Hatton: 18/1; 2016: Francesco Molinari, 25/1; 2015: Rikard Karlberg, 70/1; 2014: Hennie Otto, 80/1; 2013: Julien Quesne, 80/1; 2012: Gonzalo Fdez-Castano, 40/1; 2011: Robert Rock, 66/1; 2010: Fredrik Andersson Hed, 66/1.

* Nicolai Hojgaard was a late invite to the 2021 Italian Open and wasn’t quoted pre-event.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

Hot and sunny is the simplest of summaries for this week’s play, with virtually unbroken sunshine being accompanied by temperatures nudging 32 Celsius/90 Fahrenheit in the afternoons. The breeze will pick up to 10-15mph in the warmest part of the day to offer just a little respite to the players.

Incoming Form. The incoming form of our recent Italian Open winners is mixed, however all but Ross McGowan in 2020 had recorded a top-16 finish in one of their previous 8 starts:

  • 2024, Marcel Siem: 7/MC/20/45/16/36/56/37/23/MC/MC/37
  • 2023, Adrian Meronk: 7/34/1/10/MC/4/45/14/MC/17/MC/21
  • 2022, Robert MacIntyre: MC/36/77/MC/MC/13/MC/34/20/MC/12/50
  • 2021, Nicolai Hojgaard: 15/74/4/40/45/MC/42/14/MC/MC/21/17
  • 2020, Ross McGowan: MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/70/MC/55/52/42/67/MC
  • 2019, Bernd Wiesberger: 1/8/76/16/2/1/32/30/MC/5/17/MC
  • 2018, Thorbjorn Olesen: 5/12/36/53/29/MC/10/MC/46/37/MC/60
  • 2017, Tyrrell Hatton: 41/30/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/36/MC/3/8/1
  • 2016, Francesco Molinari: 42/17/7/55/MC/34/8/2/36/22/47/MC
  • 2015, Rikard Karlberg: MC/21/43/MC/MC/MC/10/MC/9/14/13/36
  • 2014, Hennie Otto: 37/37/37/9/5/13/41/13/57/WD/MC/39
  • 2013, Julien Quesne: 9/27/MC/MC/68/9/WD/MC/MC/58/41/7
  • 2012, Gonzalo Fdez-Castano: 53/MC/2/MC/3/MC/31/54/55/62/76/5
  • 2011, Robert Rock: MC/MC/45/20/58/40/19/13/52/29/45/MC
  • 2010, Fredrik Andersson-Hed: 35/5/4/MC/4/18/44/7/28/MC/13/17

Event Form. It’s interesting to note that three of the past thirteen winners of the Italian Open had already previously won the title in their career, and eleven of the past fifteen had recorded a top-6 finish or better in this event before their victory.

Multiple winners of this event include Ian Poulter, Bernhard Langer, Sam Torrance and Sandy Lyle and it’s clearly an event, or style of event, that can favour the same types of players year after year – indeed even 2020 shock 750/1 winner Ross McGowan had finished 6th back in 2008:

  • 2024, Marcel Siem: 16/6/10/MC/MC/4/46/35/MC/MC/MC/34/MC/26
  • 2023, Adrian Meronk: 22/2/MC
  • 2022, Robert MacIntyre: 4
  • 2021, Nicolai Hojgaard: 16
  • 2020, Ross McGowan: 6/MC/MC/51
  • 2019, Bernd Wiesberger: MC/15/63/23/6/14/45
  • 2018, Thorbjorn Olesen: 2/53/67/MC/32
  • 2017, Tyrrell Hatton: MC/45
  • 2016, Francesco Molinari: MC/MC/23/MC/13/17/1/3/MC/6/8/46/16/18/20
  • 2015, Rikard Karlberg: MC
  • 2014, Hennie Otto: MC/47/MC/33/1/MC/7/46/22/8
  • 2013, Julien Quesne: MC/MC
  • 2012, Gonzalo Fdez-Castano: 6/1/MC
  • 2011, Robert Rock: 48/37/MC/56/51/2/17
  • 2010, Fredrik Andersson-Hed: MC/9/28/MC/3/MC/54

With a winning total of 18-under at last year’s Italian Challenge on this course, and the fact that this is a resort course fundamentally, with a good weather forecast I’m expecting low scoring. Methodical players who can find a hot putter are most likely to succeed in my view.

My selections are as follows:

John Parry 2pts EW 40/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

If you’re getting a feeling of déjà vu reading this selection then that will be for good reason. Having backed John Parry at the last regular DP World Tour event, the KLM Open where he finished in a tie for 55th, and prior to that at the Soudal Open where he finished in a tie for 4th, dropping him this week on a course that he mastered on the Challenge Tour last September doesn’t seem sensible to me so I’ll back him accordingly.

That victory here at Argentario GC on the Challenge Tour was the final piece of the jigsaw which saw the Englishman regain his card for the top level of European golf, having dropped as low as the EuroPro Tour in 2021. That was some fall from grace having won the Vivendi Cup on the 2010 European Tour circuit, however that’s all well and truly behind him now.

With his card in his back pocket, 2nd at Leopard Creek was followed by victory at the Mauritius Open before the Tour broke up for Christmas. Another narrow defeat in Kenya before his aforementioned effort in Belgium all adds up to an impressive Race to Dubai campaign that sees him in 4th place in the rankings and in with a great chance of snaring a PGA Tour card for next season.

Shorter, positional courses would appear to be the 38 year-old’s best fit given what we’ve seen since his return to the top level, and his victory here last year reinforces that point nicely. With the likes of recent winner Nicolai von Dellingshausen and the highly rated Angel Ayora behind him that week, the fact that the event was on the second tier shouldn’t render it as irrelevant in my view.

5th on Tour for SG Approach and 7th for SG Tee to Green look like a great fit for this test and I’m happy stick with Parry for another week here in Italy.

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Andy Sullivan 2pts EW 40/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

A short, resort-level, parkland course screams Andy Sullivan to me and the fact that the Englishman’s form has picked up ahead of this week’s event means that I cannot leave him out of the staking plan here in Italy.

Three times a winner back in 2015 in a stretch of form that ultimately saw him qualify by rights for the 2016 Ryder Cup, it’s his 2020 victory at the English Championship that interests me most this week. Hanbury Manor was the host course that summer as golf got back underway after the Covid lockdowns and Sullivan mastered that short, parkland Par 71, eventually running out as the 7-stroke winner at a massive 27-under.

That effort came after finishes of 4th at the British Masters and 41st at the Hero Open the week before where he was top-20 heading into the weekend, and he arrives here with even more eye-catching form of 11th at the Soudal Open, 17th in Austria and 7th last time out in the Netherlands.

Generally a short, tidy operator from tee-to-green, his improvement in form recently has coincided with a spark with the putter, which is no bad thing heading into a low-scoring week. 23rd at the Hainan Open back at the end of April was the first sign that he was putting better once again where he gained over 9 strokes with the flat stick that week to rank 3rd for that statistic. 7th for SG Putting at the Soudal Open was followed by 13th on the same count last time out at the KLM Open, where he ended up SG positive in all categories.

As with many here, this will be his first competitive look at Argentario GC, however 5th in the 2018 Italian Open and 3rd in Sicily earlier that same year indicate a level of comfort in the region and I suspect he’ll hit the ground running here this week.

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Shaun Norris 1.5pts EW 55/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

As a golf punter sometimes you have to forgive and forget, and having had the chance to wean myself off of backing Shaun Norris since he surrendered a 4-stroke lead at the Joburg Open back in March, it’s time for me to get back on board this week in Italy.

Aside from the China Open where he finished in a tie for 15th, the South African has plied his trade on other Tours since that effort in his homeland, as he has done for much of his career. 2 wins on the DP World Tour, 2 wins on the Asian Tour, 4 wins on the Sunshine Tour, and after his victory at the Hana Bank Invitational the week before last, it’s now 7 wins on the Japan Tour in what’s undoubtedly been an excellent career for the 43 year-old.

The fact that he tees it up here in Italy a fortnight after that most recent success is interesting given that he won the Alfred Dunhill Championship in December a fortnight after his last win at that level at the Nippon Series JT Cup. The motivation for him to push on from that win is clear though – there are two Open Championship places available this week here in Italy for the top non-exempt finishers, plus there are a further five spots available at the conclusion of next week’s BMW International Open – Norris currently ranks 6th.

That aforementioned Joburg Open effort was on a course seriously shortened by altitude and that followed a weather-reduced South African Open on a 6,800 yard track in Durban where he led going into the final round, so I see no reason why this week’s short track here in Italy shouldn’t suit on course debut.

1st on Tour for Stroke Average, Birdies, Bogey Avoidance, Par-4 Scoring and SG Putting is an incredible tally for Norris at this stage of the season and he has all the tools to go seriously contend this week.

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Darius van Driel 1pt EW 90/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

A move to a new venue allows us to overlook the otherwise underwhelming Italian Open form of Darius van Driel, instead we can focus on some of the good golf that the Dutchman has been playing of late and his fit to this year’s venue.

As a sub-290 driver of the golf ball, those tests that put more emphasis on performance from the second shot and in suit the 36 year-old far better than the bomber-friendly tracks on the circuit, and it’s no surprise that his to date only DP World Tour victory came on such a course at the Magical Kenya Open last year. His 2-stroke victory was his first win for nearly five years at any level and came with the kind of assured performance that belied his maiden tag at the time.

Darius had the chance to double his trophy tally last month at the Soudal Open, eventually losing out in a 3-man play-off to a flying Kristoffer Reitan on another short, parkland course that shares style and agronomy elements to this week’s task.

2nd for Driving Accuracy, 17th for GIR and 1st for Scrambling that week, whilst also topping the SG Tee to Green statistic, are the kind of numbers I wouldn’t be surprised to see this week’s champion reproduce, and he hit the ball nicely again on his last start in his homeland, eventually finishing in a tie for 26th whilst ranking 7th for GIR and 5th for SG Approach.

The venue this week is a leveller for much of the field, however despite an Italian Open form line of 30/MC/MC/MC on other tracks, his debut effort in that sequence did see him in 8th place after both 36 and 54 holes, suggesting that he may well feel a little more comfortable in this part of the world than his bare results indicate.

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Nacho Elvira 1pt EW 100/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

To conclude this week’s team, I’ll employ a similar logic to that of van Driel with my final selection Nacho Elvira.

At an average of 294 yards from off the tee, the Spaniard sits outside the top 100 in terms of Driving Distance for the season to date which points me in the direction of parkland tracks such as this being a good fit, and his CV would concur with that point.

London Golf Club was the scene of his breakthrough win in 2021, a mid-length par 72 with an emphasis on accurate approach play over brute power, and he doubled his tally at last year’s Soudal Open which as I’ve already articulated above carries enough correlation to be considered a good pointer for this week.

2nd behind Darius van Driel in that aforementioned Kenya Open last year is further evidence that Nacho has a preferred type of test, and the setup here at Argentario GC should suit his eye nicely.

2025 has been solid if unspectacular for the 38 year-old with seven top-26 finishes in his last ten starts with his effort at the Turkish Airlines Open last month the only top-10, however there’s enough to pick out of his statistics to suggest he’s playing some competitive golf.

2nd for SG Approach and 6th for SG Tee to Green at the Kenya Open was virtually repeated the week after where he ranked 3rd on both counts, with middling efforts with the putter the only thing letting him down both weeks. Positive then that he gained nearly 7 strokes with the putter at the Soudal Open last month and nearly 4 strokes last time out in the Netherlands.

4 straight missed cuts in this event are of less consequence than some other weeks given the change in venue, although there is some evidence that he’s happy here in Italy having finished 3rd in this event back in 2016.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:35BST 23.6.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.