Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Italian Open Tips 2026

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After a short break as we took in the US Open, the DP World Tour is back this week with the Italian Open which is one of the more established events on Tour, having started life in 1925 and joining the European circuit right at the start in 1972. In an event that historically hops from venue to venue, this year we’re heading back to Circolo Golf Torino for the first time since 2014, so event form students should consider the history stats accordingly.

A strong field sees Joaquin Niemann, fresh off his 7th place finish at Shinnecock Hills, and Race to Dubai leader Patrick Reed share favouritism at around 14/1, with the likes of David Puig, Thomas Detry, Angel Ayora and Eugenio Chacarra following on behind.

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Course Overview. The Blue Course at Circolo Golf Torino is a par 71 measuring 7,214 yards for this year’s Italian Open.

Set within the former royal hunting grounds of La Mandria near Turin, the fairways are framed by mature oak, chestnut and birch trees, creating tight driving corridors that place a greater emphasis on positioning than power. Designed by John Morrison and later refined by Michael Hurdzan and Dana Fry, this parkland course isn’t overly long by modern standards, placing a premium on strategy, accuracy and precise iron play.

Three reachable par 5s offer the majority of the scoring opportunities, while a series of lengthy par 4s — most notably the 514-yard 12th — ensure players must combine strong driving with high-quality long-iron play. Bentgrass greens, narrow fairways and mature woodland create one of the most strategic tests on the DP World Tour schedule, favouring complete ball-strikers over outright power specialists.

The course features Bentgrass greens and Bent/Poa grass fairways, with the putting surfaces generally regarded as some of the best in continental Europe. Players who excel in finding fairways and consistently hitting greens in regulation are likely to enjoy a significant advantage over the week’s more aggressive bombers.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Italian Open that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.

As previously noted, this year’s venue is hosting the Italian Open for the first time so event history should be considered accordingly: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Current Form/Event Form.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2025, Adrien Saddier, 50/1; 2024: Marcel Siem, 175/l; 2023: Adrian Meronk, 22/1; 2022: Robert MacIntyre, 50/1; 2021: Nicolai Hojgaard, N/A*; 2020: Ross McGowan, 750/1; 2019: Bernd Wiesberger, 35/1; 2018: Thorbjorn Olesen, 80/1; 2017, Tyrrell Hatton: 18/1; 2016: Francesco Molinari, 25/1; 2015: Rikard Karlberg, 70/1; 2014: Hennie Otto, 80/1; 2013: Julien Quesne, 80/1; 2012: Gonzalo Fdez-Castano, 40/1; 2011: Robert Rock, 66/1; 2010: Fredrik Andersson Hed, 66/1.

* Nicolai Hojgaard was a late invite to the 2021 Italian Open and wasn’t quoted pre-event.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

Hot and sunny is the simplest of summaries for this week’s play, with virtually unbroken sunshine being accompanied by temperatures nudging 35 Celsius/95 Fahrenheit in the afternoons. The breeze will be negligible throughout.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. To get a statistical view of how the course plays, we have to go back to the 2013 & 2014 editions where traditional stats only were captured as it pre-dated Strokes Gained:

  • 2014, Hennie Otto (-20). 301.5 yards (13th), 69.6% fairways (11th), 81.9% greens in regulation (2nd), 76.9% scrambling (7th), 1.63 putts per GIR (4th)
  • 2013, Julien Quesne (-12). 290.3 yards (40th), 50.0% fairways (64th), 73.6% greens in regulation (21st), 68.4% scrambling (10th), 1.68 putts per GIR (4th)

The winning scores were based on the course playing as a Par 72, so we’re likely to see a slight adjustment this year with one less Par 5 on the course to make it a Par 71, however for all intents and purposes we’re playing the same track.

There was a real mix of driving distances from the contenders both years to suggest that both short and longer hitters can navigate successfully around these parts, with players either keeping out of trouble from off the tee or having a very successful week on the greens.

Incoming Form. The incoming form of our recent Italian Open winners is mixed, however all but Ross McGowan in 2020 had recorded a top-16 finish in one of their previous 8 starts:

  • 2025, Adrian Saddier: MC/13/35/7/WD/19/3/5/56/WD/MC
  • 2024, Marcel Siem: 7/MC/20/45/16/36/56/37/23/MC/MC/37
  • 2023, Adrian Meronk: 7/34/1/10/MC/4/45/14/MC/17/MC/21
  • 2022, Robert MacIntyre: MC/36/77/MC/MC/13/MC/34/20/MC/12/50
  • 2021, Nicolai Hojgaard: 15/74/4/40/45/MC/42/14/MC/MC/21/17
  • 2020, Ross McGowan: MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/70/MC/55/52/42/67/MC
  • 2019, Bernd Wiesberger: 1/8/76/16/2/1/32/30/MC/5/17/MC
  • 2018, Thorbjorn Olesen: 5/12/36/53/29/MC/10/MC/46/37/MC/60
  • 2017, Tyrrell Hatton: 41/30/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/36/MC/3/8/1
  • 2016, Francesco Molinari: 42/17/7/55/MC/34/8/2/36/22/47/MC
  • 2015, Rikard Karlberg: MC/21/43/MC/MC/MC/10/MC/9/14/13/36
  • 2014, Hennie Otto: 37/37/37/9/5/13/41/13/57/WD/MC/39
  • 2013, Julien Quesne: 9/27/MC/MC/68/9/WD/MC/MC/58/41/7
  • 2012, Gonzalo Fdez-Castano: 53/MC/2/MC/3/MC/31/54/55/62/76/5
  • 2011, Robert Rock: MC/MC/45/20/58/40/19/13/52/29/45/MC
  • 2010, Fredrik Andersson-Hed: 35/5/4/MC/4/18/44/7/28/MC/13/17

Event Form. It’s interesting to note that three of the past fourteen winners of the Italian Open had already previously won the title in their career, and eleven of the past sixteen had recorded a top-6 finish or better in this event before their victory.

Multiple winners of this event include Ian Poulter, Bernhard Langer, Sam Torrance and Sandy Lyle and it’s clearly an event, or style of event, that can favour the same types of players year after year – indeed even 2020 shock 750/1 winner Ross McGowan had finished 6th back in 2008 and 175 shot Marcel Siem had a pair of top-6 finishes in this event to his name prior to his 2024 success:

  • 2025, Adrien Saddier: 46/51/MC/44/MC/42
  • 2024, Marcel Siem: 16/6/10/MC/MC/4/46/35/MC/MC/MC/34/MC/26
  • 2023, Adrian Meronk: 22/2/MC
  • 2022, Robert MacIntyre: 4
  • 2021, Nicolai Hojgaard: 16
  • 2020, Ross McGowan: 6/MC/MC/51
  • 2019, Bernd Wiesberger: MC/15/63/23/6/14/45
  • 2018, Thorbjorn Olesen: 2/53/67/MC/32
  • 2017, Tyrrell Hatton: MC/45
  • 2016, Francesco Molinari: MC/MC/23/MC/13/17/1/3/MC/6/8/46/16/18/20
  • 2015, Rikard Karlberg: MC
  • 2014, Hennie Otto: MC/47/MC/33/1/MC/7/46/22/8
  • 2013, Julien Quesne: MC/MC
  • 2012, Gonzalo Fdez-Castano: 6/1/MC
  • 2011, Robert Rock: 48/37/MC/56/51/2/17
  • 2010, Fredrik Andersson-Hed: MC/9/28/MC/3/MC/54

My selections are as follows:

Martin Couvra 1.5pts EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with BetFred

With the LIV schedule decidedly sparse for the next few weeks, the top of this week’s market has been bolstered by the likes of Joaquin Niemann, David Puig and Thomas Detry amongst others. The returning Race to Dubai leader Patrick Reed, recent winner Eugenio Chacarra, plus the ever-popular Angel Ayora are also in attendance, all of which means we have some value each-way prices a little further down the field including Martin Couvra who headlines my team this week.

2nd in this event last year is of less relevance than normal given the change in venue, however it does show an aptitude in Italy for the Frenchman, and the Cannes resident has enough Alps Tour experience of the region to set him in good stead whatever the venue for this nomadic event. The 23 year-old also won in Spain on the Challenge Tour as an amateur back in 2023, and neither the heat nor the agronomy should prove to be problematic for him this week.

Martin’s breakthrough win at DP World Tour level came at last year’s Turkish Airlines Open, a par 71 of almost identical length to this week’s task, with fairways flanked by pine and eucalyptus trees. 10th at this season’s Catalunya Championship and 9th at the Hainan Classic are encouraging outings as he looks to add to his trophy cabinet, and having missed the cut in the Netherlands after a hectic month of May, he should be rested and ready to push on once again this week.

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Calum Hill 1.5pts EW 55/1 (8EW, 1/5) with BetFred

Having backed Calum Hill already this season to no avail, every time I’ve seen him on the leaderboard since I’ve been fearful that he would go ahead and win without him carrying any of my money. 17th at the Austrian Open where he was 5th heading into Sunday, then 14th last time out in the Netherlands where he was 10th after 54 holes suggests to me that he could be on the brink of another win, so now’s the time for me to invest once again.

For a player who’s been performing so well on the greens this season, ranking 3rd on Tour currently for SG Putting ahead of this week, the really eye-catching number on his last start was GIR where he found 76.4% of the putting surfaces and ranked 2nd in the field, rating that as his best performance in that respect for over five years. Any continuation of that kind of level married to the putting displays he’s been producing of late and we could have a potent combination on our hands.

3rd at last year’s Italian Open was the Scot’s best effort in this country as he looks to add a third DP World Tour title to his CV, having previously won at London GC at the 2021 Cazoo Classic as well at Houghton GC at the 2025 Joburg Open, both of which are parkland-style courses with Bentgrass greens.

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Gregorio de Leo 1pt EW 60/1 (8EW, 1/5) with BetFred

Of the young local players, Gregorio de Leo has impressed me the most so far in 2026 and deserves to be backed this week.

The 26 year-old grew up in the Italian city of Biella which is a few miles north-east of Turin so knows the area, its agronomy and conditions as well as anyone. Two of his three Alps Tour victories came in his homeland, and although his attempts at this title haven’t always gone to plan, he did finish 10th in 2024 and is still on a strong enough upward trajectory career-wise to suggest there’s improvement yet to come at his home Open Championship over the years to come.

4th in Denmark was de Leo’s best finish of a solid rookie campaign last year, however he’s already matched that finish in 2026 in Austria on his penultimate start, and with a further three top-10 finishes he’s already amassed enough Race to Dubai points to retain his card into 2027 when compared to the cut-off for last year. That’s got to help free him up for the remainder of the season, and this week’s event when he can enjoy home comforts and local support might give him best chance of a DP World Tour breakthrough yet.

An accurate sort in general with a decent enough short game, a missed cut last time out in the Netherlands didn’t set up anything like as well for him as this week does.

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Francesco Molinari 1pt EW 55/1 (8EW, 1/5) with BetFred

At the other end of the experience spectrum we have Francesco Molinari, and the romantic in me thinks that there might just be another win out there for the Italian with long winless spells being broken seemingly all the rage in recent times. This is the course that both Molinari brothers used to hone their skills as youngsters and maybe, just maybe, that local knowledge will propel the Turin man into contention this week.

The 2018 Open Champion hasn’t won anywhere since beating Matt Fitzpatrick by two shots at the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational, and with further WGC, Rolex Series and BMW PGA Championship victories to his name over the years – not to mention his Ryder Cup exploits – his pedigree at this level doesn’t need to be questioned. His form since that last victory at Bay Hill does raise questions though, and that’s why we can back him at the price we can.

2026 has shown some promise though, building on a 10th place finish at the Nedbank in December which was his first top-10 finish for nearly two years. 4th at the Dubai Desert Classic was at Rolex Series level, and he also finished 6th at the Indian Open on far less familiar terrain. 13th into Sunday at the KLM Open last time out also showed some promise before a closing 76 in tricky conditions – this week is far more amenable with strong Italian sunshine and light winds which can only help his chances.

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Kazuma Kobori 1pt EW 90/1 (8EW, 1/5) with BetFred

Finally, with the likes of Yurav Premlall and Kota Kaneko breaking through on the DP World Tour in recent weeks, backing another young talent in the shape of Kazuma Kobori to follow in their footsteps may not be a bad ploy given the price on offer.

Austrian Open winner Kaneko in particular might provide inspiration for Japanese-born Kobori who moved to New Zealand as a six year-old, having shown what’s possible at this level with relatively little experience. A new course in Austria helped level the playing field for Kaneko last month and the fact we’re returning to a track not used for well over a decade may well help younger players like Kobori who might otherwise be at an experience disadvantage.

Accuracy is the 24 year-old’s biggest weapon, ranking 1st for the season on Tour on that count of the players who play regularly this side of the Atlantic, and on a tree-lined course that may not be a bad starting point. Shorter hitters got into the mix at both the 2013 and 2014 renewals so I’m not massively concerned about his lack of power off the tee, in fact the hot, dry conditions should help in that respect and effectively narrow the fairways too for those who are more flagrant from off the tee.

9th in Qatar and 6th at the Catalunya Championship are Kazuma’s best results of 2026 to date as he looks to build on a rookie season that saw him finish 3rd at the BMW International Open and 2nd at The Belfry. 28th last time out at a windswept KLM Open could have been better were it not for final day 75 and this week’s test should suit much better.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:10BST 22.6.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.