With the PGA Tour season now complete and taking a 2-week break before the 2022/23 events begin, the DP World Tour takes centre stage with a full-field event in Denmark this week followed by the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, which promises to have a truly star-studded field in attendance.
This week first though and formerly called the ‘Made In Denmark’, for course form students it will be a welcome return to the Himmerland Golf Resort and Spa in Farso as we have renewals from 2014-17, 2019 and 2021 to analyse, as well as a smattering of Challenge Tour and Nordic League events that have been staged on this property over the recent past.
A young Thomas Bjorn won his first professional event around these parts on the Challenge Tour way back in 1995, before a 2012 renovation saw every green re-laid with A4 bentgrass and every bunker re-modelled, so only those who have played since that date have any practical experience of the track in its current guise, with the notable exception of Lucas Bjerregaard who’s attached to the club and plays the course regularly when at home.
Last week’s play-off contenders Matt Wallace and Thriston Lawrence immediately return to action this week and it’s runner-up Wallace who heads the betting at 22/1 from eventual winner Lawrence at 25/1. Adri Arnaus, Robert MacIntyre and Richard Mansell follow closely behind at around 28/1 in this 156-man field.
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Course Overview. From its tips the Backtee Course can stretch to nearly 7,400 yards for its par of 71, however from the renewals we’ve seen here it has played much shorter than that and according to the Tour website it will play just 6,686 yards this year.
As ever, caution should be exercised when taking that yardage as given as organisers have the choice of 5 tee boxes on each hole to flex distances as they see fit, however it’s played sub-7,000 yards on each of the renewals held here thus far and it seems unlikely that we’ll see a complete about turn this week.
An exposed, inland track with water in play on 5 of the holes and linksy in style, the main defence is the breeze in what is often a windy part of the world – any breeze tends to be accentuated on this type of exposed track, however at low levels of wind the course should still encourage a reasonably low score.
In terms of the layout itself, 5 of the par-4s measure under 400 yards, plus there’s a 128 yard par-3, however the par-5 11th measures well over 600 yards making it a 3-shotter for the vast majority of the field.
Aside from the driveable par-4 14th which at 269 yards ranked as the second easiest hole on the course last year, the two par-5s on the front 9 – the 5th and 8th holes – offer the best scoring opportunities, with 37 eagles and over 400 birdies made on just those two holes last time we visited here. The greens are excellent quality Bentgrass that run very true.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Made In Himmerland that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2021: Bernd Wiesberger, 20/1; 2019: Bernd Wiesberger, 70/1; 2018: Matt Wallace, 40/1; 2017, Julian Suri: 60/1; 2016: Thomas Pieters: 12/1; 2015: David Horsey, 80/1; 2014: Marc Warren, 30/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.
Lengthy sunny spells are expected this week with temperatures reaching the low-70s Fahrenheit in the afternoons. Winds will be light at 5-10mph throughout.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the winners from the first 3 years played here at Himmerland plus 2019 and 2021 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2021: Bernd Wiesberger (-21). 53.6% fairways (20th), 73.6% greens in regulation (12th), 68.4% scrambling (29th), 1.64 putts per GIR (7th).
2019: Bernd Wiesberger (-14). 60.7% fairways (28th), 73.6% greens in regulation (8th), 52.6% scrambling (52nd), 1.61 putts per GIR (1st).
2016: Thomas Pieters (-17). 57.1% fairways (29th), 66.7% greens in regulation (41st), 70.8% scrambling (5th), 1.63 putts per GIR (2nd).
2015: David Horsey (-13). 50% fairways (52nd), 76.4% greens in regulation (8th), 52.9% scrambling (38th), 1.69 putts per GIR (10th).
2014: Marc Warren (-9). 44.6% fairways (61st), 68.1% greens in regulation (16th), 56.5% scrambling (31st), 1.67 putts per GIR (3rd).
No stats were captured for Julian Suri in 2017 as he was plying his trade predominantly on the Challenge Tour at the time.
From what we’ve seen over the 6 renewals, Driving Accuracy is seemingly less important than some tracks and the course neither alienates the shorter hitters nor overly favours the bombers – the common denominator from the stats above is primarily the ability to putt well on these slick bentgrass greens.
Although the stats are patchier for 2017, of the 7 players with recorded stats and finished inside the top 9, all of them ranked inside the top 27 for putting average, included in which we had 1st, 3rd, 7th and 9th place finishers in that stat. Bernd Wiesberger ranked 1st and 7th for putting average when winning the last two renewals.
Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, with Bernd Wiesberger winning both renewals where SG Stats were captured there’s a lot of consistency in the data with SG Approach and SG Tee to Green dominating:
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
Event Winners – Incoming Form: Marc Warren arrived in Denmark 8 years ago in decent form having finished 3rd at the Scottish Open, 39th at the Open Championship then a creditable 15th at the US PGA Championship. He’d been putting consistently well for a few weeks, ranking inside the top-20 for putts per GIR on each of his last 4 starts and found enough greens on the week in windy conditions to compile a winning score.
David Horsey’s form the year after was less obvious having recorded 4 top-20 finishes in the season, however he too had been putting reasonably well, recording 3 top-20 putting performances out of his most recent 4 cuts made.
Thomas Pieters was 2nd favourite for this title 6 years ago having arrived after finishes of 4th at The Olympics and 2nd the week before when defending in the Czech Republic and his chance was a fairly obvious one, whereas Julian Suri was still relatively under-the-radar as he was still playing predominantly on the Challenge Tour, however a runner-up finish in Portugal and 16th on his previous start – where he was 4th going into the final day – suggested that he wasn’t far away from winning at this kind of level.
Matt Wallace arrived in Denmark in 2018 following a disappointing 36th in the Czech Republic when chasing an unlikely Ryder Cup qualification. With his only remaining chance to win and impress an on-looking Thomas Bjorn, the Englishman did just that by birdieing 5 of his final 6 holes to make a 4-man play-off which he won with birdies at both the first and second extra hole. Wallace had already won the Indian Open and BMW International Open in the season.
For the first of his wins, Bernd Wiesberger arrived with some steadily improving overall form to his name, having started the 2019 season slowly. 23rd at the Indian Open contained some brief glimpses of improvement before a 68/68 weekend in China had registered his best finish of the year. A final round 76 on his last start at the British Masters masked his overall progression and 70/1 was the reward for those who sided with the Austrian.
Last year’s Covid-delayed defence of his title by the Austrian came off of fairly non-descript form as follows:
2018: Matt Wallace: MC/3/20/51/MC/1/MC/MC/MC/MC/19/36
2017: Julian Suri: 31/1/3/23/11/MC/27/23/MC/16
2016: Thomas Pieters: 28/26/MC/27/16/29/30/86/4/2
2015: David Horsey: 42/15/MC/MC/38/11/MC/MC/66/33
2014: Marc Warren: 33/28/16/MC/29/MC/26/3/29/15
With limited course history, performances of the Himmerland winners on this track prior to their respective wins are sparse with only Thomas Pieters (finished 35th) and David Horsey (39th) with any tangible experience around these parts prior to their wins, before Bernd Wiesberger (belatedly) defended his title last year.
My selections are as follows:
Eddie Pepperell 2pts EW 30/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
From his outspoken comments on LIV to the skit that he posted recently posted on twitter, Eddie Pepperell has been a fairly prominent figure on golf social media over the past few weeks. What’s evident though is that his game and results have improved dramatically in recent times too and it would be typical Eddie to cap it all with victory sooner rather than later.
I was on board the 31 year-old at Fairmont St Andrews last month for much of the same reasoning as I’m backing him again this week, in that anything vaguely linksy when Eddie’s playing well has to be considered a potent combination. 6th at the 2018 Open Championship at Carnoustie is Eddie’s best Major finish and 4th at Lahinch (2019 Irish Open), 4th and 2nd at Gullane (2015 & 2018 Scottish Open), 7th at the 2019 Dunhill Links and 9th at the Renaissance-hosted 2020 Scottish Open, plus 2nd at Hillside in 2019, confirm his liking for that particular style of golf.
2nd that week behind Sean Crocker was ultimately disappointing, especially as the Englishman did very little wrong by posting a closing round of 65, however on another day it could easily have been victory and he’s given every indication that he’s not ready to drop from that high level of performance just yet.
20th the following week saw him sit in 4th place after 18 holes before understandably fading a little as the week progressed; 8th at the Czech Masters though was impressive on a course that was playing a little on the long side for Eddie, and 9th for SG Approach, 16th for SG Tee to Green, 1st for Driving Accuracy and 7th for GIR was an impressive set of long game figures.
Aside from the assumption that Himmerland should suit better this week, we do have some tangible evidence to that effect. 4th here on debut in 2014 saw him scythe his way through the field after a slow start; although he’s not hit the same level here since, 2nd and 3rd rounds of 67 last year is encouraging and, for me, he’s playing much better golf overall right now. RESULT: T18
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✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way
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Nicolai Hojgaard 1pt EW 45/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Given the slowly improving quality of field that we’re seeing on the DP World Tour, there are a few backable players around the 40/1 to 50/1 mark, however none more so than Nicolai Hojgaard in my view.
A couple of things that we’ve all observed about the Hojgaard twins since they exploded onto the scene as teenagers is that they’re both clearly capable of winning at this level – they have 5 DP World Tour titles between them so far, 3:2 in favour of Rasmus – however they’re also inconsistent and miss a fair few cuts. Now in a world where we’re trying to find players who are capable of finishing in the upper echelons of a leaderboard that suits me fine, especially with the price on offer this week.
As to why Nicolai is getting on for twice the odds of his brother this week is unclear to me: Rasmus can be excused for missing the Saturday night cut last week when defending, however he’s been guilty of fading over the weekends a little too regularly of late, whereas Nicolai shot rounds of 68, 68 and 64 to sit in 12th place heading into Sunday at Crans before closing with a round of 71.
29th overall in the Alps was the 21 year-old’s best finish since the start of May and a return to home soil and an exposed track may well see a continuation of his positive form from last week.
3 attempts here at Himmerland have produced a solitary paid weekend when finishing 40th last year, however given his tender age from those early attempts I’m happy to ignore. He does have winning form in the country though, capturing the Bravo Tours Open on the Nordic Golf League not long after his 17th birthday, and for me it’s only a matter of time before he builds on that in his homeland. RESULT: MC
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✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way
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At a slightly longer price, Niklas Norgaard Moller is an interesting runner given that he showed some good scoring form and has proven successful here at Himmerland at Nordic Golf League level in the past, however my preference is to back Grant Forrest who’s proven at DP World Tour level and he should enjoy his return to Denmark having finished 25th here on debut in 2019.
Since that effort, Forrest has become a champion at the top level of European golf, winning the 2021 Hero Open at Fairmont St Andrews, and with plenty more positive exposed/linksy results to his name, he looks the kind of player who could push on once again on compatible terrain.
9th at the Soudal Open, which is a short par 71 with some exposed holes and Bentgrass greens, and 3rd at Hillside are both positive outings since the middle of May for the 29 year-old that encourage an investment on this week’s course which features aspects of both tracks. 23rd at the Czech Masters on his last start at the Czech Masters saw Grant sitting in 7th place heading into the final round of the weather-affected event that was eventually reduced to 54 holes. Perhaps the disruption was to blame for his final round, however there should be no such issues this week and, after taking last week off, the Scot should be refreshed and ready to attack this week. RESULT: T62
*bet365 Golf Each Way Extra – Up to 12 places for Each Way Golf bets on selected tournaments. Each Way Extra gives you the option to increase or decrease the number of places when you are betting pre-event on the To Win Outright market on selected Golf events – add places on to your Each Way Golf bets for extra security at lower odds, or increase the price by removing places. Bet restrictions apply.For further details of how Each Way Extra works on golf click here.
✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
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✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way
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Joachim B. Hansen 1pt EW 100/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
A couple of 3-figure chances complete this week’s team, both of whom flashed a little enough form last week to suggest that they may outperform their odds here.
First up, JB Hansen whose long game took a big step forward last week at Crans, having struggled with that aspect for much of 2022, and even more significantly since May onwards.
6th for SG Approach in the Swiss Alps was the 32 year-old’s best in-field ranking on that metric of 2022 thus far; 31st for SG Tee to Green isn’t as lofty, granted, however in the context 7 outings, where he’d lost strokes on each occasion, gaining over a shot per round on that score was something of a revelation.
The promise of a relatively low-scoring renewal helps Hansen who won last year’s Aviv Dubai Championship on Jumeirah’s Fire Course, which is undoubtedly exposed and more linksy than its more famous sibling. 23-under was the winning total that week and although I’m not sure we’ll get that deep this week, scoring rather than grinding is certainly the preferred route for JB.
A missed cut here last year at DP World Tour level masks the fact that the Dane won at Himmerland in 2018 on the Challenge Tour, opening with a round of 64 and following that up with a 3rd round 63 to open up an unassailable lead, eventually winning by 5 strokes. Perhaps a return to home soil and the scene of his triumph will encourage further continuation of the progress we saw last week. RESULT: MC
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✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way
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Finally I’ll also take a chance on Marcel Siem who impressed for the first two rounds last week at Crans-sur-Sierre, opening with a pair of 65s to sit in 6th place heading into the weekend before eventually settling for a tie for 16th.
Consistency has never been the German’s strongest suit, however at 152nd on the season-long rankings, he’s going to need to find some soon – or a very big finish of some description in the near future – if he’s going to earn a full card for 2023.
Last week’s effort was a good start in that respect as the 42 year-old recorded his best result on the DP World Tour since finishing 9th at the Ras al Khaimah Classic back in February, however there have been signs of life since as Siem sat inside the top 10 heading into the weekend at the Porsche European Open and was also handy at the Irish Open before fading.
The difference last week though was that his SG Approach and SG Tee to Green performances both took a significant jump forward, and that ties in nicely with the stats that we’ve seen from Bernd Wiesberger’s two wins here. 9th and 8th on those two metrics respectively in Switzerland suggests that Marcel’s feeling good about his long game, and he returns to a course where he finished 10th on debut back in 2017. RESULT: T35
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