Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Myrtle Beach Classic Tips 2024

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With the DP World Tour taking a scheduled break ahead of next week’s US PGA Championship, I’m taking a rare delve into some Stateside action with the inaugural Myrtle Beach Classic running as an alternate event alongside this week’s Wells Fargo Championship which Steve Bamford has previewed here.

With the Signature event at Quail Hollow taking 70 of the most likely winners out of the equation, we’re left with an intriguing field and betting heat in South Carolina on a course that’s making its debut on Tour.

Ben Griffin heads the betting this week at 30/1 in places, a price which tells you just how open this event is. Erik Van Rooyen, Beau Hossler, Davis Thomas and Daniel Berger all follow shortly behind with 40/1 the field beyond the top 5.

Before we go into the detail surrounding the Myrtle Beach Classic, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System during Major season. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,300 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

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Course Overview. The Dunes Golf and Beach Club is a 7,347 yard, par 71 Robert Trent Jones original dating back to 1949 and is one of the oldest courses in the self-proclaimed ‘Golf Capital of the World’. This will be the first time that The Dunes has been used for a PGA Tour event, however it has been used for the Senior Tour Championship from 1996-1998 as well as some amateur and collegiate golf.

Rees Jones has had his hand in renovating The Dunes on three occasions in 2003, 2013 and 2018 which has helped restore the greens to their original shape whilst replacing the old Bentgrass surfaces with Champion Bermuda. Bunkering was completely overhauled in the most recent work and what we’re presented with now is a golf course fit for the modern day. Jones calls this the ‘coastal Augusta National’ – high praise indeed.

The club is positioned alongside the Atlantic coastline with some exposed holes as well as others that have much more of a parkland feel with tight (20-25 yard landing areas), tree-lined fairways and water features. Talking of water, it’s abundant on this course presenting an omnipresent danger to those errant with both their drives and their approach shots, with water coming seriously into play on 6 of the holes.

The par of 71 is formed by 3 par-5s and 4 par-3s alongside the regular par-4s, with the longs holes ranging from a generous 532 yards (4th hole) and 539 yards (15th) to an altogether different proposition at the 625 yard 13th named ‘Waterloo’.

The par-3s on the front 9 look the tougher pair at 216 and 219 yards versus 195 and 170 on the back, however it’s the par 4s which might ultimately shape this tournament given their diversity. The 14th at exactly 500 yards looks a brute, as does the 485 yard 2nd, however there’s a little respite on the 10th and 16th with both holes offering opportunities for the longest of hitters to take a few chances, particularly if tees are moved up on any given day.

myrtle beach classic tips

Tournament Stats. With no course history stats this week we’re limited to just current and first round leader form: Current Form | First Round Leader

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the Myrtle Beach area is here.

Sunshine and showers looks the order of the day this week at Myrtle Beach. Friday holds the greatest risk of electrical activity which could hamper play, other than that it should be warm and sunny with temperatures reaching the mid-80s Fahrenheit in the afternoons before dipping a little over the weekend. Winds looks the strongest on Thursday with 15-20mph expected and gusts up to 30mph, and Friday isn’t a great deal better. The weekend should be a little calmer allowing for better scoring.

Key Factors. With a new event to the schedule on a course that’s hosting a PGA Tour event for the very first time, you won’t find anything tangible in terms of statistics to help you on your way this week I’m afraid.

The only events of note in the modern era held here at The Dunes were on the Champions Tour towards the end of the last century, and although we don’t have any skill stats from the three winners, we do have their winning totals which might give us a clue as to the likely scoring here this week:

  • 1998: Hale Irwin, -14 (Par 72)
  • 1997: Gil Morgan, -16 (Par 72)
  • 1996: Jay Sigel, -9 (Par 72)

All 3 events were played over 72 holes and with the course playing to a Par 72; since the Rees Jones renovations that have followed, the course now plays as a Par 71 so with a mixed weather forecast I’d expect the course to be reasonably challenging, resulting in a mid-score tournament with a low- to mid-teens under par winning total.

There are a few other factors that I’ve used to shape my approach though which I’ll share with you here:

Rees Jones Designs/Re-Designs. Although the course was originally designed my Robert Trent Jones Senior, his soon Rees Jones is responsible for the modern-day version of the course which we’ll see this week following its various renovations since 2003.

Rees Jones has either designed or re-designed a number of courses that we either see regularly on the PGA Tour, or have seen in the recent past, most notably:

  • Aronimink GC – 2010,2011 A&T National & 2018 BMW Championship
  • Baltusrol – 2016 PGA Championship
  • Bellerive CC – 2018 PGA Championship
  • Bethpage Black – 2009 U.S Open, 2019 PGA Championship + 2012/2016 The Barclays
  • Blue Course, Congressional CC – 2011 U.S. Open + 2012-2014 & 2016 National
  • Blue Course, Royal Montreal GC – 2014 RBC Canadian Open
  • Dubsdread, Cog Hill GCC – 2009,2010,2011 BMW Championship
  • East Lake GC – Tour Championship
  • GC of Houston – Houston Open
  • Hazeltine – 2009 PGA Championship
  • Highlands Course, Atlanta Athletic Club – 2011 PGA Championship
  • Medinah Number 3 – 2019 BMW Championship
  • Torrey Pines South Course – Farmers Insurance Open, plus 2008 U.S. Open & 2021 U.S. Open

Players in this week’s field (including alternates) with the most notable performances in these events since 2016 include:

  • Brandt Snedeker: Winner, 2016 Farmers Insurance Open
  • Jim Herman: Winner, 2016 Houston Open
  • Jimmy Walker: Winner, 2016 US PGA Championship
  • Lanto Griffin: Winner, 2019 Houston Open

Beau Hossler, C.T. Pan, Henrik Norlander, Kevin Chappell, Ryan Moore and Sean O’Hair all have a runner-up finish in one of the events too.

Carolina Courses: If you’ve ever read Steve Bamford’s previews or listened to him talk on the Golf Betting System Podcast, you’ll know that he often looks for evidence of positive previous performances on Carolina courses when assessing an event in this region. This makes sense as the courses often share similar attributes with tree-lined fairways, narrow sight lines from the tee and plenty of dog-legs, appealing to some players more than others.

Quail Hollow, which hosts this week’s main event, is very much a Carolina course, and you can add to that the likes of Pinehurst Number 2, Harbour Town Golf Links and Sedgefield Country Club. Although a little different in terms of its look and feel with far more sand on the course, Congaree which hosted the 2021 Palmetto Championship and 2022 CJ Cup, is also worth consideration given its South Carolina location.

Players in this week’s field (including alternates) with the most notable performances in these events since 2016 include:

  • Wesley Bryan: Winner, 2017 RBC Heritage
  • Brandt Snedeker: Winner, 2018 Wyndham Championship
  • C.T. Pan: Winner, 2019 RBC Heritage
  • Jim Herman: Winner, 2020 Wyndham Championship
  • Garrick Higgo: Winner, 2021 Palmetto Championship
  • Kevin Kisner: Winner, 2021 Wyndham Championship

C.T. Pan, Chesson Hadley, Joel Dahmen, Nick Watney, Roger Sloan and Russell Knox all have a runner-up finish in one of the events too.

Champion Bermuda Greens: From an agronomy perspective, similar Champion Bermudagrass greens can be found across PGA Tour stop-offs at Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo Championship), Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship), TPC Southwind (FedEx St Jude Classic and WGC St Jude Invitational), the Country Club of Jackson (Sandersons Farms Championship) and the Robert Trent Jones Golf Trail (Barbasol Championship 2015 through 2017). The 2011 PGA Championship hosted at Atlanta Athletic Cub and won by Keegan Bradley also featured Champion Bermudagrass putting surfaces.

Players in this week’s field (including alternates) with the most notable performances in these events since 2016 include:

  • Daniel Berger: Winner, 2016 St Jude Classic
  • Aaron Baddeley: Winner, 2016 Barbasol Championship
  • Cody Gribble: Winner, 2106 Sanderson Farms Championship
  • Daniel Berger: Winner, 2017 St Jude Classic
  • Brandt Snedeker: Winner, 2018 Wyndham Championship
  • Jim Herman: Winner, 2020 Wyndham Championship
  • Garrick Higgo: Winner, 2021 Palmetto Championship
  • Kevin Kisner: Winner, 2021 Wyndham Championship

Ben Griffin, C.T. Pan, Chesson Hadley (twice), Daniel Berger, Henrik Norlander, Joel Dahmen, Nick Watney (twice), Roger Sloan and William McGirt all have a runner-up finish in one of the events too.

There is some crossover in the categories above with Congaree and Sedgefield sharing more than one characteristic, however that may be a positive rather than a negative if you fancy one of those players.

With 20-25 yard landing areas and water in play on a number of holes, players who can plot their way around this course may be better suited to the assignment, although we’re guessing to a large degree given this is our first look at the course.

My final selections are as follows:

Daniel Berger 2pts EW 33/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

A wide open betting market, which is often this case in these alternate events, makes for an intriguing punting heat and the first name that I’m drawn to as I scroll down the list is Daniel Berger. In all honesty I was expecting him to be favourite here this week, so finding him a good 4-5 spots down the list depending which bookie you use is refreshing and exciting in equal measure.

With 4 PGA Tour wins to his name having twice won on at TPC Southwind in decent company as well as at Colonial and Pebble Beach, the fact that the 31 year-old is teeing it up here rather than across the State line at Quail Hollow this week tells us everything you need to know about how the past couple of years have gone since suffering a back injury in the middle of 2022, which kept him out for a full 19 months.

From 25th in the OWGR the Florida native slipped outside the world’s top 600 whilst on the sidelines, however that’s undoubtedly a false position and there are strong signs that his game is rapidly returning now that he’s got 9 events under his belt in 2024.

4 rounds in the 60s at The American Express was a fine way for Daniel to ease himself back into top-level golf back in January, even if it wasn’t enough for him to trouble those at the top of the leaderboard. 28th in Phoenix was his best effort of the season until last week’s tie for 13th where again he produced 4 solid rounds of 67/67/67/66 to suggest that he’s on the brink of being really competitive once again.

12th for Driving Accuracy, 3rd for GIR and 1st for Scrambling last week at TPC Craig Ranch was undoubtedly his best all-round performance since his return from injury, although it’s notable that he’s been striking the ball well off the tee all year, ranking 10th for Driving Accuracy and 22nd for SG Off the Tee so far in 2024.

The putter was a little cold on last week’s Bentgrass greens, otherwise Berger could have been far closer to Taylor Pendrith’s winning total on Sunday, however a return to Champion Bermuda – a surface upon which he’s already won twice at TPC Southwind – may well be the final piece of the jigsaw as he looks to continue his journey back towards the upper echelons of world golf.

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Justin Lower 1.5pts EW 40/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

At the age of 35 it wouldn’t be completely unfair to brand Justin Lower as a journeyman professional given that he’s made a tidy living out of professional golf without ever winning anything substantial, however there are signs so far in 2024 that he could finally get a win on his CV.

Of course I may be doing a disservice to the Ohio State Open which Lower has won twice as a professional, however the closest he’s come to recording something a little more tangible was when he lost out in a play-off in Louisiana in 2019 on the Korn Ferry Tour. It’s his 2024 form on the PGA Tour that’s undoubtedly of more interest though.

3rd at the Mexico Open in February and 4th at the Corales Championship last month shows that the Akron-born Ohio native is competitive at a level such as this, plus he’s recorded enough impressive rounds in stronger company of late to suggest that he’s on the cusp of something career-defining right now.

64 to open at The American Express put the American in 5th place after the opening round, and he recorded a similarly fast start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational to sit 2nd after 18 holes before eventually drifting on the Sunday. 66 to begin his Texas Open effort also saw Justin sit in 2nd place after the opening day, it just seems that he’s struggled to put 4 rounds together thus far in loftier company.

24th last week at TPC Craig Ranch was another solid effort with 4 rounds in the 60s and he’s performed well in South Carolina in the past on the Korn Ferry Tour, finishing 9th at the BMW Charity Open at Thornblade Club on debut in 2014 before finishing runner-up to Mito Pereira in the same event in 2021.

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Alex Smalley 1.5pts EW 45/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

A statistical eye-catcher over his last two solo outings is Alex Smalley and the North Carolina resident could go well on the other side of the State line.

7 straight missed cuts from the Genesis Invitational through to the Texas Open came to an abrupt halt at the Corales Championship last month in similar company to this, and another alternate event presents a decent opportunity for the 27 year-old to secure a first professional title, or if not at least bank a decent cheque and get some more FedEx Cup points on the board.

6th place at the Corales wasn’t the first time that Smalley had put in a decent shift at alternate level – indeed his tied best finish on Tour came at that same event in 2022, eventually finishing 2nd behind Chad Ramey.

82% of fairways and 75% of greens hit was impressive enough at the Corales, however he kept those levels up again last week when finishing 13th at the CJ Byron Nelson, ranking 8th in the field for accuracy, 1st for GIR, and inside the top 9 for both SG Off the tee and SG Tee to Green. Carolina golf suits Alex when his long game’s on song as it is at present, and he should feel more comfortable than most here this week.

18th at Quail Hollow last year is useful Carolina form at a level significantly beyond this, as was 13th at the Wyndham Championship the year before. 16th at last year’s Sanderson Farms Championship where SG Putting was his strongest suit on the Champion Bermuda putting surfaces is also encouraging, and with his game in good shape I can see him going well here.

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Henrik Norlander 1pt EW 100/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Finally, a player who popped up on a number of the angles that I delved into this week was Henrik Norlander and perhaps the Augusta National member will feel at home on what Rees Jones describes as the ‘coastal Augusta’.

Twice a winner on the Korn Ferry Tour with compatible 15- and 19-under totals, the big Swede has twice fallen just short of making a PGA Tour breakthrough by losing out in a play-off. The first of those efforts came at the 2016 RSM Classic, however perhaps of more relevance was the 4-way play-off at last autumn’s Sanderson Farms Championship where it took a 45-footer from Luke List to defeat Norlander as well as Ludvig Aberg and Ben Griffin.

That effort at the Country Club of Jackson, which features Champion Bermuda putting surfaces as per this week’s venue, was the third time in 4 years that the 37 year-old has put in a strong performance around those parts, having previously finished 4th in both 2020 and 2021. 4th for SG Putting on his most recent effort there bodes well for this week.

Last week’s effort aside, where he drifted down the leaderboard when any lingering hope of a decent finish had disappeared after 3 straight rounds of 68, there’s been enough to like this season for me to take a chance on him here at this level. 3rd into Sunday at the Mexico Open, Henrik also played well at the alternate events in Puerto Rico and at the Corales Championship where he sat in 13th and 11th place respectively heading into Sunday.

It didn’t quite happen on Sunday alongside Luke List at the Zurich Classic, with the pair falling from a strong contending 3rd place heading into the final round, however you’d like to think that eventually a Sunday will go his way and this lower grade might be just the ticket for that to happen.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 17:03BST 6.5.24 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.