Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Omega European Masters Tips 2022

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An agonising final day in the Czech Republic saw 80/1 chance and 36-hole leader Gavin Green fall a shot short of forcing a play-off with Max Kieffer, with his putt on the last just failing to drop. Well done if you were on Kieffer for his first title at a best price of 60/1 pre-event.

With the PGA Tour Playoffs coming to its conclusion this week, the DP World Tour continues its journey into the mainland this week as we make our annual pilgrimage to the Swiss Alps and the beautiful Crans-Sur-Sierre Golf Club.

After resting since the Hero Open at Fairmont St Andrews at the end of July, Ryan Fox returns to action this week and the Kiwi has been installed once again as the bookies favourite at a general 16/1. Adrian Meronk, Robert Macintyre, Victor Perez and defending champion Rasmus Hojgaard follow in this full-field event which presents a far more appetising betting market than recent weeks.

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Crans-Sur-Sierre GC, Crans Montana, Switzerland. Designer: Fremantle and Gedge, 1908 with Ballesteros re-design 1999; Par: 70; Length: 6,848 yards; Fairways: Poa/Rye; Rough: Poa/Rye; Greens: Bent/Poa, 10’6″ on the stimp.

Course Overview. This quirky, sub-7,000 yard, par 70 is played at altitude in the Swiss Alps. The course is a tree-lined, undulating test with tiny bent/poa greens guarded by bunkers and run-off areas which have been toughened up further following tweaks over the past few years.

Four of the par-4s measure less than 400 yards whereas two stretch over 500 yards, plus there are five par-3s between 175 and 235 yards, however with the undulation changes and altitude the holes don’t necessarily play as the card suggests.

The front 9 contains three of the sub-400 yard par-4s from the stretch from the 5th to 7th, however it’s the final hole of that trio that presents the best opportunity for the brave, with birdies and eagles available for all who successfully take it on. Back-to-back reachable par-5s at the 14th and 15th also present opportunities, and taking advantage of these scoring holes whilst navigating safely around the remainder of the course is how the more aggressive types might prevail.

omega european masters tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Omega European Masters that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2021: Rasmus Hojgaard, 45/1; 2019: Sebastian Soderberg, 275/1, 2018: Matthew Fitzpatrick, 12/1; 2017: Matthew Fitzpatrick, 30/1; 2016: Alexander Noren, 18/1; 2015: Danny Willett, 16/1; 2014: David Lipsky, 125/1; 2013: Thomas Bjorn, 40/1; 2012, Richie Ramsay, 80/1; 2011; Thomas Bjorn, 55/1; 2010: Miguel Angel Jimenez, 18/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Crans Montana is here.

Mainly dry this week with temperatures reaching the mid-70s Fahrenheit after some slightly chilly morning starts. Winds will be light at around 5mph, however there’s the risk of thunderstorms over the weekend which could impact play.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the last 11 winners at Crans gives us a little more insight into the type of player suited to this test:

  • 2021, Rasmus Hojgaard (-13). 322 yards (20th), 73.1% fairways (2nd), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 68.8% scrambling (9th), 1.77 putts per GIR (30th)
  • 2019, Sebastian Soderberg (-14). 327 yards (21st), 59.6% fairways (31st), 70.8% greens in regulation (33rd), 71.4% scrambling (3rd), 1.67 putts per GIR (6th)
  • 2018, Matt Fitzpatrick (-17). 278 yards (63rd), 71.2% fairways (1st), 77.8% greens in regulation (2nd), 37.5% scrambling (25th), 1.68 putts per GIR (8th)
  • 2017, Matt Fitzpatrick (-14). 296 yards (44th), 66.7% fairways (16th), 74.1% greens in regulation (13th), 78.6% scrambling (2nd), 1.65 putts per GIR (8th)
  • 2016, Alex Noren (-17). 301 yards (39th), 51.9% fairways (49th), 70.8% greens in regulation (26th), 95.2% scrambling (1st), 1.73 putts per GIR (23rd)
  • 2015, Danny Willett (-17). 308 yards (15th), 55.8% fairways (55th), 77.8% greens in regulation (2nd), 56.3% scrambling (35th), 1.68 putts per GIR (15th).
  • 2014, David Lipsky (-18). 298 yards (39th), 75.0% fairways (3rd), 83.3% greens in regulation (2nd), 75.0% scrambling (2nd), 1.72 putts per GIR (31st).
  • 2013, Thomas Bjorn (-20). 313 yards (29th), 65.4% fairways (24th), 72.2% greens in regulation (17th), 90.0% scrambling (1st), 1.64 putts per GIR (4th).
  • 2012, Richie Ramsay (-16). 275 yards (58th), 66.7% fairways (20th), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 54.5% scrambling (46th), 1.71 putts per GIR (20th).
  • 2011, Thomas Bjorn (-20). 303 yards (24th), 82.7% fairways (1st), 80.6% greens in regulation (1st), 50.0% scrambling (51st), 1.69 putts per GIR (7th).
  • 2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez (-21). 308 yards (18th), 73.1% fairways (5th), 66.7% greens in regulation (32nd), 75.0% scrambling (6th), 1.54 putts per GIR (2nd).

Historically there have been 2 differing approaches to success here at Crans – either playing a conservative, high GIR game and putting well enough on the week to get the job done (Els 2003, Dredge 2006, Luquin 2008, Noren 2009, Bjorn 2011, Ramsay 2012, Bjorn 2013, Lipsky 2014, Willett 2015, Fitzpatrick 2018 and Hojgaard last year all succeeded in this fashion); alternatively relying on an outstanding short game is the other route to victory as ably demonstrated by Karlsson (2002), Donald (2004), Rumford (2007), Jimenez (2010), Noren (2016) and Soderberg (2019).

Only Garcia in 2005 and Fitzpatrick in 2017 really displayed a more balanced pattern of stats on the week, however both are excellent ball-strikers first and foremost.

SG Stats: From a Strokes Gained perspective, there was some consistency between both Rasmus Hojgaard and Sebastian Soderberg for the two results to date where SG stats have been captured, as both ranked top 10 for SG Off the Tee as well as SG Tee to Green:

  • 2021: Rasmus Hojgaard. T: 2nd; A: 5th; T2G: 8th; ATG: 66th; P: 12th
  • 2019: Sebastian Soderberg. T: 8th; A: 35th; T2G: 9th; ATG: 7th; P: 17th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: 8 of the last 11 winners here arrived with a top-7 finish recorded in their previous event and all had a top-10 finish in their last 10 starts at the very least, so some solid recent form looks preferable. All winners had also recorded a minimum of one top-5 finish in the season or, in the case of Noren, Bjorn and Jimenez, a victory on Tour:

  • 2021, Rasmus Hojgaard: MC/12/MC/MC/79/MC/55/17/41/MC/38/3
  • 2019, Sebastian Soderberg: MC/MC/MC/21/14/WD/41/MC/MC/5
  • 2018, Matt Fitzpatrick: 30/12/27/MC/14/MC/48/MC/36/7
  • 2017, Matt Fitzpatrick: 12/2/35/MC/54/MC/44/50/MC/54
  • 2016, Alex Noren: 9/MC/43/12/MC/8/1/46/49/2
  • 2015, Danny Willett: 29/MC/38/3/MC/38/6/MC/MC/6
  • 2014, David Lipsky: 18/10/MC/58/2/15/19/24
  • 2013, Thomas Bjorn: 4/2/2/18/8/MC/73/MC/MC/58
  • 2012, Richie Ramsay: 52/2/16/MC/MC/16/MC/MC/MC/6
  • 2011, Thomas Bjorn: 15/MC/WD/MC/57/MC/4/68/MC/1
  • 2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez: 8/MC/49/1/MC/27/22/MC/7/3

Event Form (1996 Onwards): Once upon a time, a positive record on this track was generally a good sign given its quirky nature. Both David Lipsky and Richie Ramsay arrived here with patchy course form at best though and the past two winners were course debutants, so it’s certainly not the be-all and end-all:

  • 2021, Rasmus Hojgaard: Debut
  • 2019, Sebastian Soderberg: Debut
  • 2018, Matt Fitzpatrick: MC/2/7/1
  • 2017, Matt Fitzpatrick: MC/2/7
  • 2016, Alex Noren: 66/MC/1/MC/9/27
  • 2015, Danny Willett: 23/42/25/2/26/5
  • 2014, David Lipsky: 59/MC
  • 2013, Thomas Bjorn: 8/MC/30/2/2/WD/23/26/MC/15/1/MC
  • 2012, Richie Ramsay: MC/MC/34
  • 2011, Thomas Bjorn: 8/MC/30/2/2/WD/23/26/MC/15
  • 2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez: 8/55/7/6/21/46/63/8/2/13/37/MC/3/4

Those with either a high GIR game or excellent short game can succeed here, however it’s clear that despite its lack of length this course favours neither the longer nor shorter hitters. Hojgaard and Soderberg are both relatively long though and although before that the eventual champions in recent times hadn’t been exceptionally long drivers of the golf ball, that fact could have had an entirely different spin on it had Scott Hend converted either of his play-off chances in 2016 and 2017, or if Lucas Bjerregaard had overcome Matt Fitzpatrick in 2018.

With the likes of Rory McIlroy (2019), Pelle Edberg (2015) and Brooks Koepka (2014) also contending in the recent past, it’s clear that this isn’t necessarily a course that fits a single style of play.

My selections are as follows:

Gavin Green 1pt EW 66/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

An increase in field quality has almost exactly offset the performance of Gavin Green last week in the Czech Republic, and he’s available at a similar price this week to that of last; having ridden the highs and lows of his effort in Prague, I cannot bring myself to ignore him this week, rightly or wrongly.

Save for the odd few, the players ahead of the Malaysian in this week’s market are no more adept at converting opportunities than he is, and whilst some punters will take last week’s failure to convert a 3-stroke lead heading into the final round as a big no no, I’ll take the alternative view and hope that once the initial disappointment has passed, Gavin and his team can pluck the positives out of last week and have another stab at converting a first DP World Tour title this week.

In some parallel universe, Green could be entering this week off the back of two consecutive wins – or more likely in that scenario taking this week off. It took a 15-footer on the final hole by Nitithorn Thippong to prevent the 28 year-old from forcing a play-off in Singapore the week before last, before Max Kieffer produced a sublime short game display to pip him to the title last week. A double on the back 9 as his driver refused to stay compliant was the main issue having already reached what proved to be the winning score, however he still had a chance on the 72nd hole with his birdie putt performing a full 360 before refusing to drop. Such are the breaks in this game.

So let’s take the positive stance on this and hope he can instantly find redemption. Certainly longer hitters can and do contend around this short, fiddly track and despite his final few holes, Gavin’s SG ranks of 17th for Off the Tee, 6th for Approach and 3rd for Tee to Green are pretty compelling for this week’s task.

Finishes of 12/12/32 from his 3 attempts here are solid enough, and within that we find that sat in 8th place heading into Sunday on debut back in 2018, lead to halfway the following year, and recovered admirably last year after an opening round of 74. In those 12 rounds he’s shot 63, 64 and 65 twice and, last week’s disappointment aside, he should be licking his lips at having another stab at this beautiful track. RESULT: T38

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Marcus Kinhult 1pt EW 66/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Paddy Power

Swedes have won 2 of the past 5 Omega European Opens and it’s not out of the realms of possibility that Marcus Kinhult improves that ratio further this week on a course where he’s shown some aptitude in the past.

4 starts here at Crans-sur-Sierre have seen the 2019 Betfred British Masters winner finish 10th on debut in 2015, opening with rounds of 65/66, and 12th four years later where he closed with a pair of 65s, having scraped through the cut line. 56th and 47th either side of those efforts means that Marcus has banked a cheque every time that he’s played around these parts, and more prize money could be coming his way this week.

What’s noticeable from his efforts here is that he’s excelled in all aspects of traditional stats at various points without putting it all together: he was 7th for Driving Accuracy here in 2018; 6th for GIR in 2019; 2nd for Scrambling in 2021 and 6th for Putting Average in 2015. If 3 or more of those stats can collide this week then he should improve on his best result here and threaten adding a second DP World Tour title to his CV.

After a tough 2021 where he recorded nothing better than a tie for 24th all year, a return to the Nordic Golf League gave Kinhult the injection of confidence that he so badly needed with a top 10 finish then victory at the Golfstar Winter Series events in quick succession. 8th at the Kenya Open and 3rd at the Qatar Masters at DP World Tour level saw that momentum continue and he contended again at the British Masters before falling away over the weekend.

3rd at the Cazoo Classic on his return to Hillside, where he won that aforementioned British Masters title 3 years ago, saw him lead the field for SG Approach and SG Tee to Green and although he couldn’t hit the same highs last week, a tie for 23rd on that weather-affected event is no disaster meaning he should arrive here in the Swiss Alps in confident mood. RESULT: T23

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Marcus Helligkilde 1pt EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports

Course debutants Rasmus Hojgaard and Sebastian Soderberg took the title here at Crans over the past two renewals and Marcus Helligkilde is the kind of player who I think could follow in their footsteps and make it a Nordic hat-trick.

Like Helligkilde, Soderberg was a Tour maiden when he held off Rory McIlroy et al in a 5-man play-off here before Covid struck. With both Sean Crocker and Max Kieffer making their DP World Tour breakthrough in recent weeks, seeing another talented sort get over the line here for the first time doesn’t feel out of line.

That’s not to say that Marcus has no winning experience – far from it in fact. 3 Nordic Golf League wins from 2018-2021 ultimately earned the 25 year-old a stab at the Challenge Tour and he took the bull by the horns last year, winning 3 times between August and November, including the season-ending Grand Final. One of those wins came at the Swiss Challenge, which despite its name was played just over the border in France, but certainly not a million miles away to suggest that he’s comfortable in this part of the world.

4th on his last start at Galgorm Castle ticks the fairly stark recent form trend I highlighted in the preamble, and SG ranks of 10th for Off the Tee, 8th for Approach and 5th for Tee to Green all bode well ahead of this week’s task. 5th for Scrambling also encourages in an event that’s favoured both GIR merchants and short game wizards over the years.

8th and 13th in the co-sanctioned Barbasol and Barracuda Championship events is strong form also with GIR ranks of 3rd and 11th suggesting that Marcus has every aspect of the game in his locker, and the week he puts it all together may well see him walk away with his first title at this level. RESULT: T29

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Julien Guerrier 1pt EW 60/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

Another Tour maiden who captures the attention from his recent efforts is Julien Guerrier, however unlike Helligkilde there’s a little tangible course form to add to his justification.

Recent form first though and 3 top-10 finishes in his last 7 starts suggests that the Frenchman’s game is in the right place for another stab at breaking his DP World Tour duck, having won twice on both the Alps Tour and Challenge Tour over the years. 3rd at both the Cazoo Classic (Hillside) and Cazoo Open (Celtic Manor) rate amongst his very best career efforts, and in interview it’s clear that the 37 year-old is continuing to learn and use these lofty finishes as good experience for the next time the door is ajar on a Sunday. 54- and 36-hole leads in those events respectively have both resulted in disappointing finishes, however we’ve seen time and again how players can build on these types of experiences and perhaps it will be third time lucky if he can get in the mix here this week.

Switzerland has been a fairly positive county for the La Rochelle man to ply his trade in over the years, with a missed cut here way back in 2006 the only time that he’s failed to make the weekend at all levels. 3rd and 4th in 2009 and 2010 on the Challenge Tour is positive, and he was 2nd heading into the weekend at the 2013 Swiss Challenge too.

23rd and 56th here at Crans at the upper level in 2018 and 2021 respectively doesn’t tell the whole story as Guerrier opened with rounds of 65 on both occasions to sit in a very handy position before fading, however with his game in a much stronger place right now I suspect he’d make a better fist of staying in contention if he can get himself off to a good start this week. RESULT: MC

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Ross McGowan 0.5pt EW 300/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports

A couple of rank outsiders to complete my team this week, the first of whom is Ross McGowan who’s shown enough sporadic form over the past couple of years to suggest that he’s still capable of surprising a few of the youngsters on the right course and when everything aligns.

At 40 years of age and languishing in 140th place in terms of Driving Distance for the season to date, competing on modern courses against players hitting it 40 yards past him on each hole limits the Englishman’s chances, yet a course like Crans-sur-Sierre offers some form of equalisation. Longer hitters can and do contend around these parts, that much is clear, but the track also offers another route to success that players like Ross can leverage.

4th here last year ranked as McGowan’s best finish of the season by some stretch and backed up more distant efforts here of 3rd and 7th back in 2008/9 to reinforce my point that this layout suits the Essex man’s game. Back in those days Ross notched up a few wins at various levels, including two on the Challenge Tour as well as the Madrid Masters in 2009 on the main Tour, however it’s only been in the last couple of years that we’ve seen enough to suggest that he’s still competitive at DP World Tour level.

Having dropped all the way down to the MENA Tour at one point, a 2019 win at the Challenge Tour’s Czech Challenge signalled a turnaround in fortunes, backed up by his first win at the top level at the Italian Open in October 2020. With nearly 2 years gone by since that point, perhaps now’s the time for another reminder of his talents. RESULT: MC

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Andres Romero 0.5pt EW 300/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports

Finally I’m going to take a speculative punt on Andres Romero who hinted very subtly on the Latino-America Tour at the end of May that he might still have some good golf left in him when he finished 9th at the Jalisco Open.

Of course, you need to take that effort in context given its level, however with 16 missed cuts from 23 starts at all levels since the beginning of 2020, it undoubtedly sticks out. We know that this is a player who can surprise when the stars all align, and usually that’s pretty much out of the blue, so a form line of 38/MC/MC since doesn’t overly concern me.

Victory at a similar price at the 2017 BMW International Open came with season form of 4 straight Missed Cuts, however given that we’re playing at Crans-sur-Sierre this week there’s at least a little more to work with in terms of justifying what is otherwise essentially a hopeful guess that he finds his game this week. 9th here in 2017 came off the back of 4-event form of 67/70/70/MC and a play-off loss here in 2019 was similarly non-descript with incoming results of MC/MC/51/MC – if anything you could argue that he’s in slightly better nick this time around.

21 wins globally, including another win in Europe back in 2007 plus a PGA Tour title at the Zurich Classic in 2008, as well as 4 top-8 Major finishes, puts the Argentinean on a different level career-wise than most here this week, even if much of the best golf came over a decade ago. Nevertheless, at the age of 41 there’s scope for more I’m sure and given the price on offer I’m happy to see if he can rekindle some of his best golf here this week. RESULT: MC

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 17:25BST 22.8.22 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.