Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Omega European Masters Tips 2025

Get Paul's previews as soon as they're published @golfbetting Follow Now
Follow us on X @golfbetting
Join over 6,600 punters on our facebook group
Watch our latest tips videos on YouTube

Stats Pages For This Event:

 

We move on after a blank week at the Belfry, and with the PGA Tour having concluded its season for now at East Lake, the DP World Tour continues its journey into the mainland this week as we make our annual pilgrimage to the Swiss Alps and the beautiful Crans-Sur-Sierre Golf Club.

With Ryder Cup qualification having finished last week and Rasmus Hojgaard having forced himself onto the European team, Luke Donald will have one final look at the players this week before confirming his 6 wildcard selections, with the consensus being that Matt Fitzpatrick will take the final position in the team save for something special happening this week to change the captain’s mind.

Whether it’s quite as straightforward as that remains to be seen mind you with 2024 Omega winner Matt Wallace, who finished 12th place in the final rankings, looking to defend his title and a number of players just outside the final 12 looking to catch the captain’s eye. It’s Fitzpatrick though who heads the market this week at around 9/1, with last week’s winner and 2-time Crans champion Alex Noren his closest challenger at 14/1 from the likes of Aaron Rai and Marco Penge.

Crans-Sur-Sierre GC, Crans Montana, Switzerland. Designer: Fremantle and Gedge, 1908 with Ballesteros re-design 1999; Par: 70; Length: 6,823 yards; Fairways: Poa/Rye; Rough: Poa/Rye; Greens: Bent/Poa, 10’6″ on the stimp.

Course Overview. This quirky, sub-7,000 yard, par 70 is played at altitude in the Swiss Alps. The course is a tree-lined, undulating test with tiny bent/poa greens guarded by bunkers and run-off areas which have been toughened up further following tweaks over the past few years.

Four of the par-4s measure less than 400 yards whereas two can stretch over 500 yards, plus there are five par-3s between 175 and 200 yards, however with the undulation changes and altitude the holes don’t necessarily play as the card suggests.

The front 9 contains three of the sub-400 yard par-4s from the stretch from the 5th to 7th, however it’s the final hole of that trio that presents the best opportunity for the brave, with birdies and eagles available for all who successfully take it on. Back-to-back reachable par-5s at the 14th and 15th also present opportunities, and taking advantage of these scoring holes whilst navigating safely around the remainder of the course is how the more aggressive types might prevail.

omega european masters tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Omega European Masters that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2024: Matt Wallace, 20/1; 2023: Ludvig Aberg, 16/1; 2022: Thriston Lawrence, 30/1; 2021: Rasmus Hojgaard, 45/1; 2019: Sebastian Soderberg, 275/1, 2018: Matthew Fitzpatrick, 12/1; 2017: Matthew Fitzpatrick, 30/1; 2016: Alexander Noren, 18/1; 2015: Danny Willett, 16/1; 2014: David Lipsky, 125/1; 2013: Thomas Bjorn, 40/1; 2012, Richie Ramsay, 80/1; 2011; Thomas Bjorn, 55/1; 2010: Miguel Angel Jimenez, 18/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Crans Montana is here.

Occasional showers and the odd longer spell of (potentially thundery) rain is the summary for the 4 days of tournament play, with light winds in the 5-10mph bracket. Temperatures will reach the mid 60s Fahrenheit in the afternoons after some reasonably chilly starts.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the last 14 winners at Crans gives us a little more insight into the type of player suited to this test:

  • 2024, Matt Wallace (-11). 323 yards (11th), 69.2% fairways (4th), 68.1% greens in regulation (34th), 65.2% scrambling (7th), 1.73 putts per GIR (20th)
  • 2023, Ludvig Aberg (-19). 328 yards (3rd), 65.4% fairways (32nd), 81.9% greens in regulation (3rd), 61.5% scrambling (35th), 1.69 putts per GIR (12th)
  • 2022, Thriston Lawrence (-18). 309 yards (59th), 48.1% fairways (70th), 76.4% greens in regulation (11th), 70.6% scrambling (17th), 1.64 putts per GIR (4th)
  • 2021, Rasmus Hojgaard (-13). 322 yards (20th), 73.1% fairways (2nd), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 68.8% scrambling (9th), 1.77 putts per GIR (30th)
  • 2019, Sebastian Soderberg (-14). 327 yards (21st), 59.6% fairways (31st), 70.8% greens in regulation (33rd), 71.4% scrambling (3rd), 1.67 putts per GIR (6th)
  • 2018, Matt Fitzpatrick (-17). 278 yards (63rd), 71.2% fairways (1st), 77.8% greens in regulation (2nd), 37.5% scrambling (25th), 1.68 putts per GIR (8th)
  • 2017, Matt Fitzpatrick (-14). 296 yards (44th), 66.7% fairways (16th), 74.1% greens in regulation (13th), 78.6% scrambling (2nd), 1.65 putts per GIR (8th)
  • 2016, Alex Noren (-17). 301 yards (39th), 51.9% fairways (49th), 70.8% greens in regulation (26th), 95.2% scrambling (1st), 1.73 putts per GIR (23rd)
  • 2015, Danny Willett (-17). 308 yards (15th), 55.8% fairways (55th), 77.8% greens in regulation (2nd), 56.3% scrambling (35th), 1.68 putts per GIR (15th).
  • 2014, David Lipsky (-18). 298 yards (39th), 75.0% fairways (3rd), 83.3% greens in regulation (2nd), 75.0% scrambling (2nd), 1.72 putts per GIR (31st).
  • 2013, Thomas Bjorn (-20). 313 yards (29th), 65.4% fairways (24th), 72.2% greens in regulation (17th), 90.0% scrambling (1st), 1.64 putts per GIR (4th).
  • 2012, Richie Ramsay (-16). 275 yards (58th), 66.7% fairways (20th), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 54.5% scrambling (46th), 1.71 putts per GIR (20th).
  • 2011, Thomas Bjorn (-20). 303 yards (24th), 82.7% fairways (1st), 80.6% greens in regulation (1st), 50.0% scrambling (51st), 1.69 putts per GIR (7th).
  • 2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez (-21). 308 yards (18th), 73.1% fairways (5th), 66.7% greens in regulation (32nd), 75.0% scrambling (6th), 1.54 putts per GIR (2nd).

Historically there have been 2 differing approaches to success here at Crans – either playing a conservative, high GIR game and putting well enough on the week to get the job done (Els 2003, Dredge 2006, Luquin 2008, Noren 2009, Bjorn 2011, Ramsay 2012, Bjorn 2013, Lipsky 2014, Willett 2015, Fitzpatrick 2018, Hojgaard 2021, Lawrence 2022 and Aberg last year all succeeded in this fashion); alternatively relying on an outstanding short game is the other route to victory as ably demonstrated by Karlsson (2002), Donald (2004), Rumford (2007), Jimenez (2010), Noren (2016), Soderberg (2019) and Wallace (2024).

Only Garcia in 2005 and Fitzpatrick in 2017 really displayed a more balanced pattern of stats on the week, however both are excellent ball-strikers first and foremost.

SG Stats: From a Strokes Gained perspective, the most consistent statistic across all five renewals has been SG Tee to Green. Matt Wallace’s approach play was his only weak area last year which he made up for on all other aspects:

  • 2024: Matt Wallace: T: 9th; A: 54th; T2G: 4th; ATG: 2nd; P: 3rd
  • 2023: Ludvig Aberg: T: 2nd; A: 2nd; T2G: 1st; ATG: 31st; P: 43rd
  • 2022: Thriston Lawrence. T: 58th; A: 1st; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 22nd; P: 19th
  • 2021: Rasmus Hojgaard. T: 2nd; A: 5th; T2G: 8th; ATG: 66th; P: 12th
  • 2019: Sebastian Soderberg. T: 8th; A: 35th; T2G: 9th; ATG: 7th; P: 17th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

For Strokes Gained history here at Crans for the 2025 field click here.

Incoming Form: 11 of the last 14 winners here arrived with a top-8 finish recorded in their previous event and all had a top-10 finish in their last 10 starts at the very least, so some solid recent form looks preferable. All winners had also recorded a minimum of one top-5 finish in the season or, in the case of Noren, Bjorn and Jimenez, a victory on Tour:

  • 2024, Matt Wallace: 36/4/20/43/27/15/MC/MC/41/24/28/8
  • 2023, Ludvig Aberg: MC/70/24/61/25/24/40/4/MC/64/14/4
  • 2022, Thriston Lawrence: 18/36/58/MC/18/MC36/3/24/42/MC/8
  • 2021, Rasmus Hojgaard: MC/12/MC/MC/79/MC/55/17/41/MC/38/3
  • 2019, Sebastian Soderberg: MC/MC/MC/21/14/WD/41/MC/MC/5
  • 2018, Matt Fitzpatrick: 30/12/27/MC/14/MC/48/MC/36/7
  • 2017, Matt Fitzpatrick: 12/2/35/MC/54/MC/44/50/MC/54
  • 2016, Alex Noren: 9/MC/43/12/MC/8/1/46/49/2
  • 2015, Danny Willett: 29/MC/38/3/MC/38/6/MC/MC/6
  • 2014, David Lipsky: 18/10/MC/58/2/15/19/24
  • 2013, Thomas Bjorn: 4/2/2/18/8/MC/73/MC/MC/58
  • 2012, Richie Ramsay: 52/2/16/MC/MC/16/MC/MC/MC/6
  • 2011, Thomas Bjorn: 15/MC/WD/MC/57/MC/4/68/MC/1
  • 2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez: 8/MC/49/1/MC/27/22/MC/7/3

Event Form (1996 Onwards): Once upon a time, a positive record on this track was generally a good sign given its quirky nature. Both David Lipsky and Richie Ramsay arrived here with patchy course form at best though and the four winners prior to Matt Wallace were all course debutants, so it’s certainly not the be-all and end-all:

  • 2024, Matt Wallace: 70/51/MC/2/24
  • 2023, Ludvig Aberg: Debut
  • 2022, Thriston Lawrence: Debut
  • 2021, Rasmus Hojgaard: Debut
  • 2019, Sebastian Soderberg: Debut
  • 2018, Matt Fitzpatrick: MC/2/7/1
  • 2017, Matt Fitzpatrick: MC/2/7
  • 2016, Alex Noren: 66/MC/1/MC/9/27
  • 2015, Danny Willett: 23/42/25/2/26/5
  • 2014, David Lipsky: 59/MC
  • 2013, Thomas Bjorn: 8/MC/30/2/2/WD/23/26/MC/15/1/MC
  • 2012, Richie Ramsay: MC/MC/34
  • 2011, Thomas Bjorn: 8/MC/30/2/2/WD/23/26/MC/15
  • 2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez: 8/55/7/6/21/46/63/8/2/13/37/MC/3/4

Those with either a high GIR game or excellent short game can succeed here, however it’s clear that despite its lack of length this course favours neither the longer nor shorter hitters. Wallace, Aberg, Hojgaard and Soderberg are all relatively long though and although before that the eventual champions in recent times hadn’t been exceptionally long drivers of the golf ball, that fact could have had an entirely different spin on it had Scott Hend converted either of his play-off chances in 2016 and 2017, or if Lucas Bjerregaard had overcome Matt Fitzpatrick in 2018.

With the likes of Rory McIlroy (2019), Pelle Edberg (2015) and Brooks Koepka (2014) also contending in the relatively recent past, it’s clear that this isn’t necessarily a course that fits a single style of play.

My Final Omega European Masters Tips Are As Follows:

Nicolai Hojgaard 3pts EW 18/1 (5EW, 1/4) with Betfred

Some of the more sensationalist headlines since Rasmus Hojgaard sewed up his Ryder Cup spot on Sunday at The Belfry have suggested that the player he ousted, Shane Lowry, is now sweating on Luke Donald’s final wildcard decision next Monday. Shane may be winless in this qualification period, but let’s be honest here – the tailors have already measured him up for the full range of Team Europe apparel. He’s in.

The battle is likely where it’s been for some time now with Jon Rahm taking one of Matt Fitzpatrick and Matt Wallace’s spots, leaving Fitzpatrick as the most likely candidate of the two Matts. A successful defence here at Crans from Wallace would ask the question of Donald of course, however closing rounds of 81 and 77 over the past fortnight when the heat was on may tell the story. I’d love to see the Hillingdon man don a Ryder Cup shirt in his career, however this may not be his time just yet.

I wonder if the heat has got to Matt Fitzpatrick just a little though – leading into the final round last week, a win would have surely put the whole conversation to bed – and to that end perhaps Nicolai Hojgaard will sense his opportunity to team up with his brother at Bethpage and in turn ask Luke an almighty question by winning here this week.

Last week’s runner-up finish at The Belfry was fuelled by a pair of 67s over the weekend and a field-leading SG Tee to Green performance on a course where he’d missed the cut on his previous two attempts. SG positive in every category for the week and 2nd for Off the Tee, it was only Alex Noren’s late birdies and a gutsy bogey save on the 72nd hole that prevented him from having a chance of winning the British Masters in extra time.

4th at the Scottish Open and 14th at The Open were strong efforts in elite company last month, and with his stock rising once again after last week’s effort I wonder if the 24 year-old can build on the 5th place finish he recorded here the last time he was trying to catch the captain’s eye in 2023.

It’s clear from the list of winners and serious contenders here in recent years that power isn’t a detrimental asset to have around these parts, despite the dimensions of this altitude test giving the shorter hitters a chance. Indeed twin brother Rasmus won here in 2021 to emphasise that point and perhaps Nicolai will emulate that effort here 4 years on.

✅ New UK customers: Bet £10 Get £50 in free bets for new customers using code BETFRED50 and this qualifying link
✅ For further details read our Betfred promo code> page
✅ Odds compiler takes a different view of many events meaning value can be found
✅ Flexible each-way terms available with 5, 7, 8 and 10 place options to choose from

Betfred New Customer Offer: New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. Full T&Cs apply. #Ad

CLAIM T&Cs

Alex Fitzpatrick 1pt EW 55/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

Continuing the brotherly theme, I’m also backing Alex Fitzpatrick who has an outstanding record here at Crans and who has none of the pressure or expectation of his older sibling this week – plus he’s available at around five times the price.

I backed Alex here on his debut back in 2023 – in fact I backed both Fitzpatricks that week – and he finished 5th to his far more decorated brother’s 3rd, proving that he can both perform here on this track and also when Matt’s been hogging the limelight. 6th last year was another impressive display where he led after the first round with a scintillating round of 63 and was second heading into the weekend before tripping over on Saturday’s round. 68 to close was solid though and the 26 year-old was Strokes Gained positive in every category, excelling around the green for the second year in succession which is never a bad attribute given the size of the putting surfaces here in Switzerland.

The last 8 winners here all had a top-8 finish in their previous outing, so 8th last week at The Belfry is a big tick in the box and marks the Sheffield man’s best result of the season to date, building on an improved 31st at the Nexo Championship before that. Once again it’s his Strokes Gained Around the Green performances (10th & 4th) that catch the eye, with his approach and tee-to-green game both showing strong positive momentum last week.

✅ Bet £10 get £40 in bonuses for new customers
✅ For further details read our Unibet sign up offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ Strong odds on First Round Leader market

Unibet New Customer Offer: 18+. BeGambleAware.org. New GB customers only. Min £10 debit card deposit. Place a £10+ bet at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days. Opt in for £20 in free bets and £20 Casino Bonus. Valid for 7 days. Geographical restrictions and T&C’s apply. #Ad

CLAIM T&Cs

Keita Nakajima 1pt EW 50/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Star Sports

Building on the strong performance last week narrative, I’m also backing Keita Nakajima who sprang back to form last week at The Belfry with an impressive 4th place finish.

This will be the Japanese star’s first attempt at this stunning layout at Crans-sur-Sierre, however lack of course experience didn’t prevent him from capturing his maiden title on a quirky track in India last year, and with four of the last five winners here being debutants I’m quite relaxed about it this week. Instead I’m happy to focus on his effort last week and how that might translate to success here in the Alps.

1st for Driving Accuracy and 2nd for Scrambling in England are viable stats for a potential winner around these parts, and trending SG Tee to Green stats (9th last week) completes the statistical picture for me from a player who can blow hot and cold.

What is evident though is that when the 25 year-old finds form he can undoubtedly hold it for a few weeks before dropping away again. Runner-up in consecutive weeks earlier this year at the Singapore Classic and then when defending his aforementioned Indian Open title is testament to that, and he also recorded finishes of 2/4/2 on the Japan Tour late the previous year, so building on his effort last week is a distinct possibility.

✅ Bet £50 Get £25 in free bets for new customers using this qualifying link.
✅ Promo code BET50GET25 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ Competitive odds and each-way terms available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour

Star Sports New Customer Offer: Bet £50 to Get a £25 Free Bet. Offer available to new customers only signing up with Promo Code BET50GET25 only. Full T&C’s apply. 18+. GambleAware.org. Full T&Cs available here. #Ad

CLAIM T&Cs

Davis Bryant 1pt EW 250/1 (5EW, 1/4) with Betfred

Finally I’ll take a chance on the still relatively unknown quantity that is Davis Bryant who’s once again available at a dismissive price on the DP World Tour.

With just 20 professional starts to his name, the American has chosen this side of the Atlantic to get himself a career foothold and there’s been plenty to suggest that he’s more than capable of competing and contending at this level.

6th at the Delhi Challenge and 4th at the Abu Dhabi Challenge on the second tier at the start of this year, the 25 year-old has impressed when his Q-School qualification status has allowed him a start at the top level, with 10th at the Italian Open, 4th at the BMW International Open, and 13th last week at The Belfry the most eye-catching of his results to date.

Not the longest from off the tee, perhaps Crans will present him with his best opportunity yet, particularly if he can repeat his iron play performance from last week where he led the field for GIR. 3rd for SG Approach and in particular 6th for SG Tee to Green last week correlates nicely with recent winners here and, like Nakajima, this being Bryant’s debut here isn’t overly concerning given recent history in this event.

✅ New UK customers: Bet £10 Get £50 in free bets for new customers using code BETFRED50 and this qualifying link
✅ For further details read our Betfred promo code> page
✅ Odds compiler takes a different view of many events meaning value can be found
✅ Flexible each-way terms available with 5, 7, 8 and 10 place options to choose from

Betfred New Customer Offer: New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. Full T&Cs apply. #Ad

CLAIM T&Cs

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 14:00BST 25.8.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.