After a stop-start Dunhill Links that drew a blank for us from a betting perspective, we head to Spain this week as the DP World Tour edges ever close to its business end of the season.
Club de Campo is the venue this week, a club that hosted the Spanish Open 5 times in the 1990s with Rodger Davis, Eduardo Romero, Colin Montgomerie, Seve Ballesteros and Padraig Harrington all running out winners.
More recently, the Madrid track hosted the Turespana Masters in 2000, Open de Madrid 2001-05 and the Madrid Masters in 2008, before becoming the host venue for the Spanish Open every year since 2019, with the 2020 renewal having been cancelled due to the pandemic.
Jon Rahm heads the betting once again in an event that he’s already won three times, however 3/1 or maybe a touch longer is the best you’ll get about the Spaniard delighting the home crowd for a fourth time this week. Joaquin Niemann is generally a 10/1 shot with the likes of David Puig, Patrick Reed, Marco Penge and Shane Lowry also in attendance.
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Club de Campo Villa de Madrid, Spain. Designer: Javier Arana, 1956, with Manuel Pinero updates; Course Type: Tree-lined, Resort; Par: 71; Length: 7,112 yards; Fairways: Bermuda/Rye/Bent; Rough: Bermuda/Rye/Bent; Greens: Bentgrass/Poa.
Course Overview. The Club de Campo course is a 7,112 yard, par 71 designed by Javier Arana with subsequent modifications by Manuel Pinero.
Since it was used for the Madrid Masters in 2008, the layout was extended by 162 yards ahead of the 2019 Spanish Open with new tee boxes on around half of the holes to offer it a little protection against the modern golfer, however with winning scores of -19, -23 and -18 the last 3 times it was used before the renovation, and -14 to -25 in the five renewals since, birdies and eagles are still the order of the day unless the wind is blowing.
An undulating, tree-lined course with relatively generous fairways, the main protection for the course is on and around the small bent/poa greens which are multi-tiered and reasonably tricky. Par-5s at the 4th, 7th and 14th measure 526, 564 and 536 yards respectively and all present eagle opportunities for those players who can find the fairway from off the tee.
The extended par-4 1st hole proved tricky last time we visited these parts as you’d expect from a 505-yard par-4, ranking the toughest hole on the course, however for the most part the holes are fairly straightforward in good golfing conditions.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Open de Espana that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2024: Angel Hidalgo, 250/1; 2023: Matthieu Pavon, 90/1; 2022: Jon Rahm, 5/2; 2021: Rafa Cabrera-Bello, 55/1; 2019: Jon Rahm, 10/3; 2018: Jon Rahm, 4/1; 2016: Andrew Johnston, 100/1; 2015: James Morrison, 225/1; 2014: Miguel Angel Jimenez, 22/1; 2013: Raphael Jacquelin, 55/1; 2012: Francesco Molinari, 16/1; 2011: Thomas Aiken, 45/1; 2010: Alvaro Quiros, 18/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Madrid is here.
In contrast to last year’s windy renewal, the forecast for this year is far more benign and scoring should recover as a result. Thursday may well be the breeziest day at 10-15mph, with the four days of tournament play enjoying sunny skies and temperatures reaching the mid-70s Fahrenheit in the afternoons.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Looking at the final stats from the winners since 2019 gives us an idea of the skill-set required for this week’s test:
2024: Angel Hidalgo (-14). 296 yards (37th), 50% fairways (13th), 66.7% greens in regulation (8th), 66.7% scrambling (15th), 1.56 putts per GIR (1st).
2023: Matthieu Pavon (-23). 309 yards (20th), 55.4% fairways (20th), 69.5% greens in regulation (28th), 86.4% scrambling (3rd), 1.60 putts per GIR (4th).
2022: Jon Rahm (-25). 337 yards (2nd), 53.6% fairways (27th), 73.6% greens in regulation (12th), 73.7% scrambling (7th), 1.53 putts per GIR (2nd).
2021: Rafa Cabrera-Bello (-19). 296 yards (52nd), 58.9% fairways (20th), 70.8% greens in regulation (25th), 85.7% scrambling (2nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (22nd).
2019: Jon Rahm. (-22). 316 yards (1st), 78.6% fairways (3rd), 73.6% greens in regulation (12th), 78.9% scrambling (3rd), 1.58 putts per GIR (1st).
Prior to that, although this course hadn’t hosted the Spanish Open since 1996, we do have some tangible stats from the Madrid Masters and Open de Madrid held here:
2008, Charl Schwartzel (-19). 296 yards (21st), 66.1% fairways (10th), 80.6% greens in regulation (2nd), 71.4% scrambling (6th), 1.76 putts per GIR (20th).
2005, Raphael Jacquelin (-23). 293 yards (10th), 80.4% fairways (23rd), 70.8% greens in regulation (34th), 81.0% scrambling (10th), 1.59 putts per GIR (1st).
2004, Richard Sterne (-18). 306 yards (2nd), 58.9% fairways (61st), 73.6% greens in regulation (22nd), 73.7% scrambling (14th), 1.66 putts per GIR (5th).
Making eagles and birdies is the key component in normal conditions whilst keeping cards as clean as possible, however it’s on and around the greens where this event is likely to be won. Each of the winners listed ranked inside the top-15 for scrambling and that trend continues for many of the players who finished in the each-way positions for the 5 most recent renewals in particular.
Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, SG Tee to Green was the most consistent stat from the five renewals held here, with eventual winners Jon Rahm (twice),Rafa Cabrera-Bello and Angel Hidalgo ranking 1st, 1st, 3rd and 4th respectively, however SG Around the Green and SG Putting are also prominent too with 2023 winner Matthieu Pavon excelling in both:
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
Incoming Form: Looking at the Spanish Open since 2010 at its various different venues, the incoming form of all eventual winners is solid for the most part.
Each player had recorded a top-20 finish or better in one of their previous 7 starts, however only Miguel Angel Jimenez, Jon Rahm (2018 & 2022) and Matthieu Pavon came into the week with any immediate sparkling form.
Angel Hidalgo was one of the tougher players to find, although his performance the week before at Wentworth in decent company could have been far better had he not closed with a 75 on the Sunday:
Event Form. Prior to Jon Rahm winning in 2018, all other winners since 2010 had played at least one Spanish Open in the past, however their results in the event had been pretty varied to say the least.
Matthieu Pavon was Rahm’s closest challenger in 2022 and he went one better in 2023 to secure his maiden DP World Tour title, however a best of 34th for last year’s winner Angel Hidalgo wasn’t giving much away:
A scoreable, tree-lined test should produce low-scoring with the wind down compared to last year, and those players who can make eagles and birdies whilst keeping their card clean with a smart short game should be favoured.
My Final Open de Espana Tips Are As Follows:
Kristoffer Reitan 2pts EW 25/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred
This week presents us with a real conundrum in the shape of Jon Rahm. Three times a Spanish Open winner, twice on this track, and coming into this week having played a starring role in Europe’s Ryder Cup win, Rahm will take all the beating. At 3/1 I wouldn’t blame any punters for going all in on the Spaniard, but equally he’s been beaten on three of his five starts here including last year and isn’t a sure thing, if there ever is such a thing in golf betting.
A calmer renewal should improved the scoring dramatically from last year’s 14-under winning total, and although Rahm’s also won here at 22- and 25-under par, for him to reach the same level again this week requires that the putter is compliant. 13th on his last strokeplay start at Wentworth saw him gain a little over a third of a stroke with the putter each day on average, and he’ll need the flat stick to be far hotter here over four days if he’s going to take the title.
You could make a case for any of the next 8 or 10 in the market, including Shane Lowry who like Rahm will still be riding the crest of a wave following his New York heroics, however the one who has the attributes I’m looking for an a scoreable, old-school test is Kristoffer Reitan.
Currently in possession of the 2nd of 10 PGA Tour cards for next season and with events running out, it’s fairly safe to say that the Norwegian will be playing Stateside golf next year, however I suspect he’s not quite ready to take his foot of the accelerator just yet as he arrives here off the back of consecutive top-5 finishes. 24th at Wentworth preceded those efforts where he ranked 6th for SG Putting,m and he led the field for SG Tee to Green in Paris the week after to suggest that his game is in great shape overall.
A breakthrough win came earlier this year at the Soudal Open, a relatively short course that shares enough characteristics with Club de Campo for that effort to be noteworthy, and the 27 year-old has the right blend of aggression and touch on the greens to compile a winning score here in my view.
Reitan missed the cut here back in 2019 in a tough rookie season having just turned 21; 6 years down the line he’s a far more accomplished player, plus he shot 23-under to win the Challenge Tour grand Final last November the last time that he played on Spanish soil.
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Oliver Lindell 1pt EW 55/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred
With the omnipresent threat of Jon Rahm simply demolishing the field this week, I’m keeping the staking plan quite tight as we might all be playing for place money if the former world number 1 turns up with his A game.
One player who could more than cover our week with an each-way place is Oliver Lindell, and having finished inside the top 8 on three of his last six starts I’m happy to add him to the team this week on course debut.
91st last week at the Dunhill Links can be ignored given the vagaries of that tournament and how it panned out with the draw and the weather, however before that a run of results reading 7/8/17/7/13 was impressive for the rookie, with the final effort in that sequence coming in a very strong field at Wentworth on course debut, suggesting to me that he’s more than capable of performing here this week.
The Finn recorded three top-5 finishes in Spain in his early career on the Nordic Golf League before finishing 5th at the 2020 Challenge de Espana. 4th at the Challenge Tour Grand Final the last time the 27 year-old played in this part of the world is also encouraging as he looks to build on what’s already been an impressive first season at this level.
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Grant Forrest 1pt EW 66/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes
Like Reitan, another player with a 2025 victory under his belt is Grant Forrest and his return to form last week at the Dunhill Links where he finished 11th is noteworthy ahead of a return to this Madrid course that he’s shown a keen liking for in the past.
We were on board when the 32 year-old won the Nexo Championship just up the Scottish coast from his home back in August, cruising home by 4 shots in a windy renewal. Now we won’t get the links turf and breeze this week, plus the winning score is likely to be much deeper under par, however 3rd here in 2021 and 3rd again last year suggests there’s something about this setup that he likes, and his other win on Tour – the 2021 Hero Open – came at 24-under to suggest that he has the tools to go low enough here to prevail.
4 missed cuts followed his most recent victory a couple of months ago, although 3 of those were narrow and last week’s effort proved he’s not downed tools for the season just yet.
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Finally I’m going to return to Ewen Ferguson who I backed a couple of weeks ago in Paris to no avail. In hindsight, backing the Scot immediately after securing a top-5 finish at the Tour’s flagship event might have been asking a little too much, however with a few weeks break since and a run out last week in Scotland where he finished 61st, perhaps he’ll be ready to go once again here this week.
The Glaswegian’s best effort of the year came at the aforementioned Soudal Open behind Kristoffer Reitan and coupled with his Wentworth effort that’s enough of an indication for me that he could go well this week, particularly when you consider that he finished 9th here in 2023 on debut in easier scoring conditions than his missed cut 12 months ago.
Hitting fairways isn’t a bad attribute on these old-school tests – 8th on Tour for Driving Accuracy for the season puts Ferguson in the kind of bracket of player who could go well here this week, as he looks to bolster his 40th place position on the Race to Dubai ahead of the Tour’s Play-Off events next month.
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