Open de Espana Tips 2026 - Golf Betting System

Paul Williams' Open de Espana Tips 2026

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After a frustrating Dunhill Links that drew a blank for many punters from a betting perspective with 150/1 shot Adrian Meronk running out as the eventual winner, we head to Spain this week as the DP World Tour edges ever closer to its business end of the season.

Club de Campo is the venue once again this week, a club that hosted the Spanish Open 5 times in the 1990s with Rodger Davis, Eduardo Romero, Colin Montgomerie, Seve Ballesteros and Padraig Harrington all proving victorious.

More recently, the Madrid track hosted the Turespana Masters in 2000, Open de Madrid 2001-05 and the Madrid Masters in 2008, before becoming the host venue for the Spanish Open every year since 2019, with the 2020 renewal having been cancelled due to the pandemic.

Jon Rahm and Ludvig Aberg contest favouritism at around 9/1, with runaway Irish Open winner Shane Lowry and Race to Dubai leader Patrick Reed following on behind in what can only be described as a strong renewal of this event.

Before we go into the detail surrounding the Open de Espana, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,600 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

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Club de Campo Villa de Madrid, Spain. Designer: Javier Arana, 1956, with Manuel Pinero updates; Course Type: Tree-lined, Resort; Par: 71; Length: 7,154 yards; Fairways: Bermuda/Rye/Bent; Rough: Bermuda/Rye/Bent; Greens: Bentgrass/Poa.

Course Overview. The Club de Campo course is a 7,154 yard, par 71 designed by Javier Arana with subsequent modifications by Manuel Pinero.

Since it was used for the Madrid Masters in 2008, the layout was extended by 162 yards ahead of the 2019 Spanish Open with new tee boxes on around half of the holes to offer it a little protection against the modern golfer, however with winning scores of -19, -23 and -18 the last 3 times it was used before the renovation, and -14 to -25 in the five renewals since, birdies and eagles are still the order of the day unless the wind is blowing.

An undulating, tree-lined course with relatively generous fairways, the main protection for the course is on and around the small bent/poa greens which are multi-tiered and reasonably tricky. Par-5s at the 4th, 7th and 14th measure 526, 564 and 536 yards respectively, and all present eagle opportunities for those players who can find the fairway from off the tee.

The extended par-4 1st hole proved tricky last time we visited these parts as you’d expect from a 505-yard par-4, ranking the toughest hole on the course – however for the most part the holes are fairly straightforward in good golfing conditions.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Open de Espana that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.

As noted above, this course only hosted this event in 2019 & 2021-25 from the data listed: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2025: Marco Penge, 20/1; 2024: Angel Hidalgo, 250/1; 2023: Matthieu Pavon, 90/1; 2022: Jon Rahm, 5/2; 2021: Rafa Cabrera-Bello, 55/1; 2019: Jon Rahm, 10/3; 2018: Jon Rahm, 4/1; 2016: Andrew Johnston, 100/1; 2015: James Morrison, 225/1; 2014: Miguel Angel Jimenez, 22/1; 2013: Raphael Jacquelin, 55/1; 2012: Francesco Molinari, 16/1; 2011: Thomas Aiken, 45/1; 2010: Alvaro Quiros, 18/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Madrid is here.

Following some rain in the build-up to this week’s event, the sunshine will return to Madrid just in time for the tournament to start with temperatures responding into the low-70s Fahrenheit as the 4 days progress. Wind will be at its strongest on Thursday at between 10-15mph before dropping away over the weekend.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Looking at the final stats from the winners since 2019 gives us an idea of the skill-set required for this week’s test:

2025: Marco Penge (-15). 323 yards (5th), 39.3% fairways (60th), 73.6% greens in regulation (2nd), 78.9% scrambling (4th), 1.69 putts per GIR (17th).
2024: Angel Hidalgo (-14). 296 yards (37th), 50% fairways (13th), 66.7% greens in regulation (8th), 66.7% scrambling (15th), 1.56 putts per GIR (1st).
2023: Matthieu Pavon (-23). 309 yards (20th), 55.4% fairways (20th), 69.5% greens in regulation (28th), 86.4% scrambling (3rd), 1.60 putts per GIR (4th).
2022: Jon Rahm (-25). 337 yards (2nd), 53.6% fairways (27th), 73.6% greens in regulation (12th), 73.7% scrambling (7th), 1.53 putts per GIR (2nd).
2021: Rafa Cabrera-Bello (-19). 296 yards (52nd), 58.9% fairways (20th), 70.8% greens in regulation (25th), 85.7% scrambling (2nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (22nd).
2019: Jon Rahm. (-22). 316 yards (1st), 78.6% fairways (3rd), 73.6% greens in regulation (12th), 78.9% scrambling (3rd), 1.58 putts per GIR (1st).

Prior to that, although this course hadn’t hosted the Spanish Open since 1996, we do have some tangible stats from the Madrid Masters and Open de Madrid held here:

2008, Charl Schwartzel (-19). 296 yards (21st), 66.1% fairways (10th), 80.6% greens in regulation (2nd), 71.4% scrambling (6th), 1.76 putts per GIR (20th).
2005, Raphael Jacquelin (-23). 293 yards (10th), 80.4% fairways (23rd), 70.8% greens in regulation (34th), 81.0% scrambling (10th), 1.59 putts per GIR (1st).
2004, Richard Sterne (-18). 306 yards (2nd), 58.9% fairways (61st), 73.6% greens in regulation (22nd), 73.7% scrambling (14th), 1.66 putts per GIR (5th).

Making eagles and birdies is the key component in normal conditions whilst keeping cards as clean as possible, however it’s on and around the greens where this event is likely to be won. Each of the winners listed ranked inside the top-15 for scrambling and that trend continues for many of the players who finished in the each-way positions for the 6 most recent renewals in particular.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, SG Tee to Green has been the most consistent stat from the six renewals held here, with eventual winners Jon Rahm (twice), Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Angel Hidalgo and Marco Penge ranking 1^st, 1^st, 3^rd, 4^th and 3^rd respectively, however SG Around the Green and SG Putting are also prominent most years too with 2023 winner Matthieu Pavon excelling in both:

2025: Marco Penge. T: 4th; A: 6th; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 41st; P: 27th
2024: Angel Hidalgo. T: 13th; A: 6th; T2G: 4th; ATG: 17th; P: 17th
2023: Matthieu Pavon. T: 46th; A: 27th; T2G: 15th; ATG: 1st; P: 1st
2022: Jon Rahm. T: 3rd; A: 18th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 4th; P: 4th
2021: Rafa Cabrera-Bello. T: 24th; A 6th; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 23rd; P: 24th
2019: Jon Rahm. T: 1st; A: 12th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 11th; P: 9th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: Looking at the Spanish Open since 2010 at its various different venues, the incoming form of all eventual winners is solid for the most part.

Each player had recorded a top-20 finish or better in one of their previous 7 starts, however only Miguel Angel Jimenez, Jon Rahm (2018 & 2022) and Matthieu Pavon came into the week with any immediate sparkling form.

Marco Penge’s 91^st place finish at the weather-affected Dunhill Links can be largely ignored; prior to that, 13^th at Wentworth and victory in Denmark highlights his positive underlying form:

2025: Marco Penge: 25/21/11/2/MC/27/1/6/8/50/13/91
2024: Angel Hidalgo: 22/67/33/27/33/16/MC/28/39/67/MC/57
2023: Matthieu Pavon: 39/20/MC/7/17/MC/MC/45/81/MC/MC/6
2022: Jon Rahm: 9/27/1/48/10/12/55/34/5/8/16/2
2021: Rafa Cabrera-Bello:MC/50/MC/MC/23/MC/58/MC/MC/20/67/MC
2019: Jon Rahm: MC/MC/3/2/1/11/7/3/5/13/2/MC
2018: Jon Rahm: 15/MC/36/1/2/1/29/11/26/20/52/4
2016: Andrew Johnston: MC/25/44/10/44/MC/22/71/4/45/MC/15
2015: James Morrison: 4/15/6/46/MC/MC/MC/45/MC/70/MC/18
2014: Miguel Angel Jimenez: 72/70/8/20/1/15/10/MC/MC/33/13/4
2013: Raphael Jacquelin: 46/5/6/41/22/16/39/42/30/34/33/MC
2012: Francesco Molinari: 10/23/33/11/16/8/69/16/17/13/17/19
2011: Thomas Aiken: 13/5/14/14/3/MC/13/6/7/13/36/35
2010: Alvaro Quiros: 16/MC/8/42/11/2/6/33/14/6/45/MC

Event Form. Prior to Jon Rahm winning in 2018, all other winners since 2010 had played at least one Spanish Open in the past, however their results in the event had been pretty varied to say the least.

Matthieu Pavon was Rahm’s closest challenger in 2022 and he went one better in 2023 to secure his maiden DP World Tour title, however a best of 34^th for 2024 winner Angel Hidalgo wasn’t giving much away, neither was Marco Penge’s missed cut only his only previous start:

2025: Marco Penge: MC
2024: Angel Hidalgo: MC/34/MC
2023: Matthieu Pavon: MC/MC/2
2022: Jon Rahm 1/1/17
2021: Rafa Cabrera-Bello: MC/MC/72/6/37/11/27/44/74/MC/16/MC/2
2019: Jon Rahm: 1
2018: Jon Rahm: Debut
2016: Andrew Johnston: MC
2015: James Morrison: 2/36/32/21/38
2014: Miguel Angel Jimenez: 45/16/26/2/MC/3/39/52/4/31/17/46/MC/MC
2013: Raphael Jacquelin: MC/MC/MC/MC/8/8/MC/3/MC/65
2012: Francesco Molinari: MC/16/11/27
2011: Thomas Aiken: 47/MC
2010: Alvaro Quiros: MC/39/MC/37/17

A scoreable, tree-lined test should produce low-scoring with the wind dropping as the tournament progresses, and those players who can make eagles and birdies whilst keeping their card clean with a smart short game should be favoured.

My final Open de Espana selections are as follows:

Ludvig Aberg 4pts Win Only 9/1 with bet365

With this year’s classy field converging on Madrid, seeing a winner from the upper end of the market wouldn’t surprise me one bit and Ludvig Aberg seems to be rounding into form as he seeks his first win since last year’s Genesis Championship on the PGA Tour.

Top 5 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Players Championship, Valero Texas Open, RBC Heritage and US PGA Championship weren’t converted into early-season victories which will no doubt have disappointed and frustrated the Swede, and 9^th at The Open plus 4^th at the Tour Championship have followed in the same vein as the summer has pushed towards Autumn. Let’s put those performances into context though, and with Jon Rahm seemingly off the boil, Shane Lowry maybe having peaked on home soil last month, and Patrick Reed last seen withdrawing at Wentworth through injury, if one of short prices is going to win then my feeling is that it may well be Aberg.

Since that 4^th place finish at East Lake, the 26 year-old has finished 27^th at Wentworth before straightening his driver up significantly to finish 11^th at Le Golf National where he ranked 6^th for Driving Accuracy, 2^nd for GIR, 3^rd for SG Tee to Green and 3^rd for SG Approach. When the long game is firing like that, Ludvig is a serious threat wherever he tees it up.

Course form of our winners here at Club de Campo is mixed to say the least, so the fact that Aberg is making his debut this week isn’t a major concern for me, and the very fact he’s playing suggests to me that he wants to make an early statement in terms of Ryder Cup qualification. With the likes of Shane Lowry and Matt Fitzpatrick already having got their own campaigns off to a flying start with recent wins, seeing Ludvig throw his hat into the ring wouldn’t surprise me one jot.

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Eugenio Chacarra 2pts EW 22/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes

Of the next tier down in the betting, I’m also backing Eugenio Chacarra whose season carries a number of parallels to last year’s winner Marco Penge.

The defending champion recorded his third win of the year here 12 months ago, building on wins at the Hainan Classic and Danish Golf Championship before ultimately finishing second to Rory McIlroy in the Race to Dubai and securing his PGA Tour card by some distance. With wins at the KLM Open and Italian Open, Chacarra enters this week in third place in the season-long rankings and safe in the knowledge that he’s already racked up more than enough points to be playing State-side golf in 2027, and that fact might just allow the 26 year-old to play with the freedom to win his home Open.

Having previously won the brutal Indian Open in 2025 before taking out the first of those aforementioned titles in the Netherlands at 11-under, the Spaniard quickly silenced any suggestion that he was a tough course specialist by shooting 24-under to win in Turin on another tree-lined but scoreable par 71 of comparable length to this week’s task.

Form here of 65/MC hardly inspires, however 12^th at Valderrama on LIV back in 2024 and 10^th at El Prat earlier this season on the DP World Tour suggest a level of comfort on home soil, even if it hasn’t happened as yet in this event. 4^th at Crans on another tree-lined track saw Eugenio top the SG Tee to Green metric, and 3^rd last time out at Le Golf National continued a warming trend with the putter that could spell more success this week should it continue.

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Joe Dean 1pt EW 75/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Another player who could be joining Chacarra on the PGA Tour next year is Joe Dean, although there’s still work to be done if the former Morrisons delivery driver is going to fulfil that dream. At 14^th on the Race to Dubai, the Englishman is currently in possession of the last of the ten PGA Tour cards, but with his lead over the chasing pack wafer-thin, he’ll be acutely aware how important this week and the four events that follow are to his chances.

Victory at The Belfry saw the 32 year-old rank 3^rd for SG Tee to Green and 2^nd for SG Approach on the week, with new wife Emily on the bag as he took home his first title and the biggest cheque of his career. Low-key efforts of 41^st in Ireland and 56^th at Wentworth followed, however 11^th at Le Golf National suggests to me that he’s got his head around the situation he finds himself in and that’s a far better barometer of his game than the vagaries of a missed cut on the number at the Dunhill Links. A Friday 65 at Kingsbarns flashed a little bit of form though and he can take that forward to this week’s task.

3^rd here in Madrid on debut back in 2024 when still cutting his teeth at this level is handy form to have at Club de Campo, and something similar this week would both keep his 2027 dream alive and potentially reward each-way backers here.

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Dan Bradbury 1pt EW 100/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes

Finally, I’ll take a chance on Dan Bradbury’s putter warming up a little and giving us a run for our money this week at a tasty each-way price.

At 22^nd on the Race to Dubai, the Englishman is one of those players who’s in the slipstream behind Joe Dean and in the conversation for some PGA Tour golf in 2027 if he can string together a few results between now and mid-November. Missed cuts at The Belfry, Doonbeg, Crans and Wentworth looked like his race was run for this year, but a much improved 14^th in Paris last time out will have given the Wakefield man some hope. 3^rd for SG Approach at Le Golf National – 5^th for GIR – is what we expect from Dan when his key strength is firing, but crucially the putter was very close to neutral which for a player like him is good enough if the rest of his game is on song – and any improvement on that here this week makes him a danger to the rest of the field.

Victory at the Joburg Open this year saw the 27 year-old gain nearly a stroke per day on the Bentgrass-based greens there at Houghton GC, so we know what he can achieve when the flat stick is compliant, and he gained a massive 9 strokes with the putter here at Club de Campo when finishing 13^th on debut back in 2022. 6^th here the following year is more useful course form, and he also finished 6^th the last time the tour visited Spain at the Catalunya Championship in May.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:23BST 05.10.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.

About The Author - Paul Williams

Paul Williams is co-founder and part of our editorial team at Golf Betting System and he focuses mainly on the DP World Tour. Paul has been involved in the gambling industry for over 15 years and has a passion for golf as well as football and horse racing, where he has developed a deep understanding of both online and offline betting gathered through practical experience. Paul also contributes weekly to the popular Golf Betting System podcast.

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