US PGA Championship Tips

The 2025 US PGA Championship returns to Quail Hollow, North Carolina, as Major Championship golf returns this May.

A freshly renovated Quail Hollow will welcome the strongest field in Major Championship golf. Regularly seen on the PGA Tour at the Wells Fargo Championship, 2017 was the last time that Quail Hollow hosted a PGA Championship – won by Justin Thomas by 2 shots. Importantly it’s also 350 miles south-east of Kentucky where last year’s PGA was played at Valhalla Country Club, so will feature different conditions and agronomy.

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Now ensconced in May, the PGA Championship has seen Brooks Koepka (2019 & 2023), Phil Mickelson (2021), Justin Thomas (2022) and Xander Schauffele (2024) lift the Wannamaker Trophy in its new spot in the schedule. Traditionally in August, we used to have a World Golf Championship tournament the week before the PGA, but the revised positioning of the tournament has been a learning curve for both the players and punters alike.

2025 sees the world’s best professional golfers playing across the CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in Texas, the Truist Championship at Philadelphia Cricket Club (this isn’t a typo!) in Pennsylvania, or LIV Golf League Korea at the Jack Nicklaus Golf Club, South Korea in the direct build-up to the PGA Championship. What’s for sure is that the PGA will be played on a Bermudagrass golf course for the first time since Justin Thomas won here at Quail Hollow in 2019.

Golf betting at the Major Championships, and especially the PGA Championship, is a complex subject. Mistakes can be costly, however select the right player or player portfolio and the rewards can be excellent. Golf Betting System’s goal is to provide you with informed PGA Championship tips, free tournament research guides, and insight and information that will help you make educated decisions about who to back at the 2025 US PGA Championship.

The PGA Championship in recent history has seen a plethora of long hitters getting the job done, with many capturing their first Major titles in this event. The PGA of America’s choice of Oak Hill in 2013 raised eyebrows as the classical and downright claustrophobic nature of the course was totally alien to its mantra of testing through course length. As it transpired, the neat and tidy Jason Dufner won his first Major that week.

Either side of Oak Hill, Y.E. Yang (2009), Martin Kaymer (2010), Keegan Bradley (2012), Jason Day (2015), Jimmy Walker (2016) and Justin Thomas (2017) have, like Dufner, all captured first-time Majors. All can hit the ball a long way, as can Rory McIlroy (winner at both Kiawah Island in 2012 and Valhalla in 2014), Brooks Koepka who drove the field into submission at both Bellerive (2018) and Bethpage Black (2019), plus Phil Mickelson (2021) who despite being the wrong side of 50 years of age, averaged 313 yards off the tee when winning at Kiawah Island in 2021.

Fast forward to recent years and Justin Thomas won his 2nd PGA Championship at Southern Hills in 2022, averaging the mere matter of 321 yards from off the tee. 2023 saw a return to an extended East Course at Oak Hill upon which Brooks Koepka averaged 319 yards when capturing his third PGA Championship. Last year saw Xander Schauffele capture his first Major, in doing so driving the ball an average 310 yards off the tee at a soft Valhalla which had been drenched by rain in the build-up.

As we expected, 2020 proved slightly different with the tighter 7,200 yard, Par 70 at TPC Harding Park falling to another Major first-timer in the form of Collin Morikawa. Now you can’t classify Morikawa as a ‘bomber’, but averaging 297 yards off the tee and in the top 80 for ‘Driving Distance – All Drives’ across 2020, Collin is certainly no slouch from off the tee.

Course Information

Quail Hollow Club, Charlotte, North Carolina: Designer: George Cobb with 2013 & 2016 Tom Fazio re-design; Course Type: Classical, Carolina, Long; Par: 71; Length: 7,626 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In Play: 7; Number of Sand Bunkers: 61; Acres of Fairway: 26; Fairways: 419 Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass; Rough: 419 Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass 2”; Greens: 6,578 sq.ft average featuring G12 Champion Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis; Tournament Stimp: 12ft.

Course Scoring Average:

• 2024: 71.73 (+0.73), PGA Tour Difficulty Rank 6 of 51 courses.
• 2023: 71.23 (+0.23), PGA Tour Difficulty Rank 14 of 49 courses.
• 2021: 72.26 (+1.26), PGA Tour Difficulty Rank 5 of 51 courses.
• 2019: 71.76 (+0.76), PGA Tour Difficulty Rank 8 of 49 courses.
• 2018: 72.13 (+1.13), PGA Tour Difficulty Rank 5 of 51 courses.
• 2017 (PGA Championship):  73.47 (+2.47), PGA Tour Difficulty Rank 1 of 50 courses.

Quail Hollow Club has hosted the 2017 PGA Championship and the 2022 Presidents Cup. It is also a traditional stop-off on the PGA Tour having hosting the Wells Fargo Championship from 2003 onwards. Exception years for results research were 2017 and 2022 where Quail Hollow was being prepped for the PGA Championship and Presidents Cup respectively.

Quail Hollow is a George Cobb design which was originally completed in 1961. The course used to play as a Par 72 format, which it did for the last time at the 2016 Wells Fargo Championship won by James Hahn, with Justin Rose in 3rd place.

After James Hahn won the 2016 Wells Fargo Championship, Tom Fazio-inspired work started on the course with a 90-day window allowing significant changes to the very start of the front 9. The 1st is a 505 yard (extended 10 yards for the PGA) dog-leg right par-4, which was previously a sub-420 yard birdie opportunity. The 178 yard par-3 2nd hole was erased (it was used to lengthen the 1st) and a new 184 yard par-3, namely the 4th hole, was built to replace it. As a consequence the 5th was shortened from a 570 yard par-5 to a 449 yard par-4. At the 11th hole a 100% new green complex was built and the par-4 has been lengthened by 35 yards, which now plays at 462 yards. Par naturally changed to a Par 71.

So what changes will we see in 2025?

Firstly the course has been extended from its PGA Tour Wells Fargo Championship guise to something akin to the 2017 PGA Championship. From a yardage perspective, the 2015 Wells Fargo played at 7,558 yards. The 2025 PGA Championship will play at 7,626 yards – that is an increase of 68 yards.

Yardage has been added to 3 holes by reconstituting back tee usage:

• 1st Hole – par-4 505 yards, +10 yards
• 9th Hole – par-4 530 yards, +25 yards
• 17th Hole – par-3 223 yards, +33 yards

A 7,600 yard, Par 71 in a parkland setting is what I think of as a typical PGA Championship venue, and it’s a course that Kerry Haigh, Chief Championships Office of the PGA of America, will be able to tinker with both before and during the tournament. The PGA of America traditionally like a single digit under par winning score – 5 of the last 7 PGA Championships played on long golf courses have been won with a single digit under par score – and unless Quail Hollow plays as soft as Valhalla did last year, they will get their way again in 2025.

From an agronomy perspective, it’s important to note that a significant part of the re-design saw the greens changed from MiniVerde Bermudagrass to Champion Bermudagrass – they are also overseeded with Poa Trivialis in May.

Similar Champion Bermudagrass greens can be found across PGA Tour stop-offs at:

• Congaree (2021 Palmetto Championship & 2022 CJ Cup)
• Country Club of Jackson (Sanderson Farms Championship)
• Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship)
• TPC Southwind (WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational & FedEx St Jude Championship)
• Trinity Forest (2018 & 2019 HP Byron Nelson)
• The Dunes Golf and Beach Club (2024 Myrtle Beach Classic)
• Pinehurst Number 2 (2024 US. Open)

The 2011 PGA Championship hosted at Atlanta Athletic Club and won by Keegan Bradley also featured Champion Bermudagrass putting surfaces.

It’s also worth referencing the green complexes at Quail Hollow. Yes they feature Champions Bermudagrass with Poa Trivialis overseed, but it’s their size I find fascinating – 6,578 sq.ft. on average. So in essence we have larger than PGA Championship standard greens on a 7,600 yard golf course. This is how they compare to 2022 – 2024 PGA Championship venues:

• 2022: Southern Hills CC – 5,277 sq.ft. average – Bent – 7,365 yard, Par 70.
• 2023: Oak Hill CC – 4,500 sq.ft. average – Bent – 7,394 yard, Par 70.
• 2024: Valhalla GC – 5,000 sq.ft. average – Bent – 7,609 yard, Par 71.
• 2025: Quail Hollow – 6,578 sq.ft. average – Bermuda Poa Trivialis – 7,626 yard, Par 71.

Quail Hollow is a Tom Fazio renovation. Tom Fazio PGA Tour designs are listed below:

Tom Fazio

• Atunyote GC – Turning Stone Championship 2007-10.
• Caves Valley GC – BMW Championship 2021.
• Congaree GC – Palmetto Championship 2021 & CJ Cup 2022.
• Conway Farms GC – BMW Championship 2013, 2015, 2017.
• Corales GC – Corales Championship
• Eagle Point – Wells Fargo Championship 2017.
• Raptor Course Greyhawk GC – Fry’s.com Open 2008/09.
• Shadow Creek GC – CJ Cup 2020.
• The Summit Club – CJ Cup 2021.

Fazio has also had renovation input into:

• Riviera Country Club – Genesis Invitational.
• Merion – 2013 U.S. Open.
• Oakmont – 2016 U.S. Open.
• Seaside Course at Sea Island – RSM Classic

My synopsis is that the PGA Championship traditionally plays to the advantage of the longer hitters and the Quail Hollow design pretty much guarantees the same in 2025, as the super elite hitters will be able to carry most of the fairway bunkers and cut corners on the numerous dog-leg holes that we see on this Carolina-type golf course.

Quail Hollow Club. A long, undulating, Carolina classic.

Here’s how Justin Thomas won the 2017 PGA Championship here at Quail Hollow from a statistical perspective:

Strokes Gained:

• 2017, Justin Thomas (-8). SG Off the Tee: 22nd, SG Approach: 16th, SG Around the Green: 22nd, SG Tee to Green: 11th, SG Putting: 4th.

From a Stroke Gained perspective, Justin gained 2.29 strokes per round from Tee to Green (56%) and 1.81 Putting (44%). Fascinatingly Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Reed and Dustin Johnson – from the 2025 PGA Championship field – were all better from Tee to Green. None of these 4 ranked in the top 10 for Strokes Gained Putting, with Reed who finished T2, ranking 11th in the putting category.

So Thomas effectively won this with a hot putter in tandem with a B+ Tee-to-Green game. He also gained a shot per round with his approach play. From the tee he was flagrant – hitting only 50% of fairways (62nd) – and at 328 yards average he was the longest driver in the field.

This statistical look where Strokes Gained Putting is a key category (unlike Augusta National) also holds water when we look at the past 5 PGA Tour winners here on the Tom Fazio layout.

Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Wells Fargo Championship winners here at Quail Hollow since 2018 (course re-design):

• 2024, Rory McIlroy (-17). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 9th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 8th.
• 2023, Wyndham Clark (-19). SG Off the Tee: 20th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 39th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 3rd.
• 2021, Rory McIlroy (-10). SG Off the Tee: 18th, SG Approach: 10th, SG Around the Green: 41st, SG Tee to Green: 9th, SG Putting: 3rd.
• 2019, Max Homa (-15). SG Off the Tee: 18th, SG Approach: 12th, SG Around the Green: 41st, SG Tee to Green: 12th, SG Putting: 1st.
• 2018, Jason Day (-12). SG Off the Tee: 19th, SG Approach: 50th, SG Around the Green: 1st, SG Tee to Green: 9th, SG Putting: 2nd.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

• SG Off the Tee: 15th, SG Approach: 15th, SG Around the Green: 26th, SG Tee to Green: 6th, SG Putting: 3rd.

If we look at the past 4 winners here in the Wells Fargo Championship, namely Max Homa, Wyndham Clark and Rory McIlroy (2021 & 2024), 60% of their Total Strokes Gained were generated from Tee to Green with 40% on the putting green. That putting number is high.

To offer comparison, the same analysis across the past 5 winners of The Masters at Augusta National highlights 92% Tee to Green versus 8% Putting split. In essence, poor putters simply won’t win at Quail Hollow.

The 2017 PGA Championship was played here in August. Temperatures were blistering and it’s worth noting that the course played summer firm and fast with the greens featuring no Poa Trivialis overseed.

Below you’ll find the top 20 finishers at the 2017 PGA Championship in this year’s PGA field.

2017 PGA Championship – Quail Hollow Club, Charlotte, North Carolina

1st: Justin Thomas; 2nd: Patrick Reed; 5th: Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama; 9th: Jason Day; 13th: Brian Harman, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson.

Bermudagrass Winners

When Justin Thomas won the 2017 PGA Championship it was his first Major win and only his 5th PGA Tour victory. One thing that does stand out is that in 2017 he had already won on Bermuda-grassed golf courses at the SBS Tournament of Champions (now The Sentry), on the Plantation Course at Kapalua, and also at the Sony Open in Hawaii at Waialae Country Club.

Here’s a list of players in the 2025 PGA Championship field with Bermudagrass green PGA Tour victories on their CVs:

• 11 – Rory McIlroy.
• 9 – Scottie Scheffler.
• 7 – Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas.
• 5 – Jordan Spieth.
• 4 – Sam Burns, Jason Day, Billy Horschel, Si Woo Kim, Chris Kirk, Jon Rahm.
• 3 – Sergio Garcia, Russell Henley, Hideki Matsuyama, Phil Mickelson, Xander Schauffele, Cameron Smith, Nick Taylor.
• 2 – Daniel Berger, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau, Jason Dufner, Harris English, Rickie Fowler, Lucas Glover, Garrick Higgo, Viktor Hovland, Mackenzie Hughes, Justin Rose, Adam Scott, Sepp Straka, Jimmy Walker.
• 1 – Ludvig Aberg, Akshay Bhatia, Keegan Bradley, Rafael Campos, Wyndham Clark, Corey Conners, Nick Dunlap, Austin Eckroat, Tony Finau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Adam Hadwin, Brian Harman, Tyrrell Hatton, Joe Highsmith, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Martin Kaymer, Tom Kim, Patton Kizzire, Min Woo Lee, Shane Lowry, Maverick McNealy, Collin Morikawa, Taylor Moore, J.T. Poston, Aaron Rai, Davis Riley, J.J. Spaun, Jhonattan Vegas, Gary Woodland, Kevin Yu, Will Zalatoris.

Tom Fazio Golf Course Winners

Fancy a list of Tom Fazio golf course winners on the PGA Tour, who are in the PGA Championship field, going back 5 years?  Thought you might! Rory McIlroy dominates with 4 wins across 3 different courses. Recent PGA Tour winner Garrick Higgo also has a couple of Tom Fazio design wins:

• 2020 Genesis Invitational – Riviera CC – Adam Scott
• 2021 Genesis Invitational – Riviera CC – Max Homa
• 2021 Wells Fargo Championship – Quail Hollow – Rory McIlroy
• 2021 Palmetto Championship – Congaree GC – Garrick Higgo
• 2021 BMW Championship – Caves Valley GC – Patrick Cantlay
• 2021 CJ Cup – The Summit Club – Rory McIlroy
• 2022 Genesis Invitational – Riviera CC – Joaquin Niemann
• 2022 CJ Cup – Congaree GC – Rory McIlroy
• 2023 Genesis Invitational – Riviera CC – Jon Rahm
• 2023 Wells Fargo Championship – Quail Hollow – Wyndham Clark
• 2023 RSM Classic – Seaside Course- Sea Island – Ludvig Aberg
• 2024 Genesis Invitational – Riviera CC – Hideki Matsuyama
• 2024 Corales Championship – Corales GC – Billy Horschel
• 2024 Wells Fargo Championship – Quail Hollow – Rory McIlroy
• 2024 RSM Classic – Seaside Course- Sea Island – Maverick McNealy
• 2025 Corales Championship – Corales GC – Garrick Higgo

A Strong Outing Before Is Imperative

This trend was established back in 2006 when the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational was added to the schedule a week before the PGA Championship. Naturally the annual visit to Firestone South in Akron is no more, but the idea that a player will need to be playing well in their immediate start should be one to consider. 2019 saw the PGA Championship take place in May, and in 2020 the USPGA made an unscheduled return to an August date, the week after the WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational played at TPC Southwind. There are no doubts though that form players, in the main, win the PGA Championship.

2019 saw Brooks Koepka finish 4th at Trinity Forest GC in Texas the week before lifting the Wannamaker Trophy. 2020 saw Collin Morikawa finish a hard-charging 20th, powered by a 67/66 across the weekend. And 2022 saw Justin Thomas finish 5th at TPC Craig Ranch, shooting 64/67 across Saturday/Sunday which was T4 in that AT&T Byron Nelson field.

In the modern Major Championship world we now have to build the LIV Golf League into trends and 2023 saw Brooks Koepka play in Tulsa the week before the PGA Championship. He finished 5th, shooting 65/65 across Saturday/Sunday. That takes us to last year where Xander Schauffele was in a Sunday head-to-head fight with Rory McIlroy at the Signature-level Wells Fargo Championship a fortnight prior to the PGA. Schauffele was 1 shot ahead of Rory standing on the 8th tee, but 2 eagles and 4 birdies through holes 8-15 sank Xander, with many questioning his closing ability. They were to eat their words 7 days later at Valhalla.

Phil Mickelson, as ever, destroys this trend, but even there he was the 1st Round leader at Quail Hollow in his outing before winning the PGA at Kiawah Island and was still 10th after 36 holes.

And the World Golf Championship-status Bridgestone Invitational the week before at Firestone South was always a real indicator of who went on to win the PGA Championship. The Firestone-based tournament became the PGA ‘warm up’ in 2006, and from that point onwards the winner of the PGA Championship was firstly always in the Bridgestone field and secondly was always in the top 28 of the tournament.

We also have other precedents here. 2016 saw the Olympic Golf Competition creating massive changes with the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational moving to July. Instead the RBC Canadian Open directly preceded the PGA Championship, where Jimmy Walker finished fast on Sunday to grab 11th spot at Glen Abbey.

Excellent immediate tournament form was also key to both Mickelson and Singh’s triumphs in 2005 and 2004 respectively. Mickelson finished 10^th in Colorado before jumping on his private jet to New Jersey and winning the following weekend at Baltusrol.  Singh won his prior tournament 2 weeks before the PGA at Warwick Hills, before travelling across to neighbouring Wisconsin to capture his 3^rd Major at Whistling Straits. Even Rich Beem in 2002 won at Castle Pines (The International) and then won a fortnight later at Hazeltine.

For me I will be keeping a very close eye on the preceding events on various Tours to ascertain who is playing great golf prior to arriving in North Carolina.

Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green

We all love a statistic, and in the era of the PGA Tour’s Strokes Gained analysis we have plenty to wade through.

Looking at PGA champions’ last tournament performance since 2010, it’s fascinating to see that there are real similarities across the Strokes Gained Tee to Green numbers. Koepka, Thomas, McIlroy (twice), Dufner and Kaymer all ranked within the top 10 of that category at Firestone the week before. 2019 saw Brooks Koepka rank 6th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green and 8th for Greens in Regulation at the Byron Nelson played at Trinity Forest the week before triumphing at Bethpage Black. And in outliers Jimmy Walker – who played the RBC Canadian Open at Glen Abbey – Jason Day (at Firestone), and 2020 champion Collin Morikawa, they still ranked in the top 27 for the SG Tee to Green category and finished 14th, 12th and 20th respectively in their warm-up event, with Jason Day and Collin Morikawa ranking in the top 5 and top 10 respectively for Greens in Regulation.

2022 saw Justin Thomas play the week before the PGA at the AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in Texas. JT continued this trend of strong Tee to Green play in the outing prior, ranking 10th for that category as he finished 5th.

From a LIV Golf League angle, Strokes Gained weren’t captured across Brooks Koepka’s LIV Tulsa event before capturing the PGA Championship at Oak Hill. The fact he ranked 8th for Greens in Regulation, 6th for Total Accuracy and 6th for Ball Striking in Tulsa certainly helped me to back him at 18/1 to take his 5th Major title.

Xander Schauffele went head-to-head, or mano e mano, against Rory McIlroy at Quall Hollow prior to winning his first Major Championship at the PGA. To push Rory so close on what is arguably McIlroy’s favourite course highlighted just how well the Californian was playingm and sure enough he ranked 1st for Greens in Regulation and 2nd to McIlroy for Tee to Green.

Naturally 50 year-old (at the time) Phil Mickelson, who won the PGA in 2021 at a uniquely coastal and windswept Kiawah Island, destroys this trend completely, but in general it’s clear to deduce that those struggling to keep the ball in front of them immediately prior to playing the PGA Championship ultimately don’t win it.

Driving Distance is the Key

So what’s the key player attribute that a PGA Championship winner needs in his arsenal to get the job done?

Well with the PGA Championship being played on a stretching circa 7,600 yard, Par 71, a premium advantage will inevitably return to longer drivers of the golf ball. In recent times that’s always been the case.

Taking 2013’s visit to Oak Hill and 2020’s visit to TPC Harding Park out of the overall picture as they were both untypically tight PGA Championship set-ups, every winner of the PGA Championship since 2011 has been a minimum 301 yard hitter from off the tee.

That 301 yard number goes all the way back to 2011 and Keegan Bradley, and putting that into perspective he ranked in the top 20 for Driving Distance on the PGA Tour arriving in Atlanta before winning his PGA Championship.

This is Steve Bamford’s pre-event trends and pointers article. Steve’s final US PGA Championship tips for 2025 will be published here on the Monday of the event.

Thoughts or comments? You can post to Steve on X here: @Bamfordgolf