It was fantastic to see Brooks Koepka capture his fifth Major Championship at Oak Hill for this column at 18/1. That’s a fourth PGA Championship success for me having previously won with Brooks Koepka at 20/1 in 2018, Koepka again in 2019 at 11/1, and Morikawa in 2020 at 35/1.
Plenty of the Oak Hill field have travelled south to Fort Worth, Texas for the final leg of the Texas Swing. The Charles Schwab Challenge takes place at the classical Colonial Country Club and is well-respected on the PGA Tour. Defending champion Sam Burns, Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, Max Homa, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im, Rickie Fowler, Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Rose headline.
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Before we go into the detail surrounding the Charles Schwab Challenge, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,200 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
Course Guide: Colonial CC sits in the same classical course category as Riviera Country Club, Augusta National and Muirfield Village, although it’s a far tighter affair from tee to green than most. At 7,209 yards this Bredemus and Maxwell-designed Par 70 cannot be simply overpowered. The tree-lined parkland course features pure Bentgrass greens that are extremely small at an average size of only 5,000 square feet. Birdies are hard to come by at Colonial with the 2 par-5s amongst the toughest on Tour to birdie or better. Colonial will be only the fourth tournament on pure Bentgrass greens of 2023 on the PGA Tour. Naturally now as the PGA Tour moves into summer, Bentgrass putting surfaces will be more regularly seen from week to week.
Colonial Country Club, Fort Worth, Texas: Designer: Bredemus/Maxwell 1936; Course Type: Classical, Medium; Par: 70; Length: 7,209 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 6; Fairways Tifway 419 Bermudagrass; Rough: Bermudagrass 3″; Greens: A4 Bentgrass, 5,000 sq.ft average; Tournament Stimp: 12ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 71.13 (+1.13), Difficulty Rank 13 of 49 courses. 2013: 69.90 (-0.10), Difficulty Rank 24 of 43 courses. 2014: 70.27 (+0.27), Rank 19 of 48 courses. 2015: 69.78 (-0.22), Difficulty Rank 21 of 52 courses. 2016: 70.20 (+0.20), Difficulty Rank 18 of 50 courses. 2017: 71.15 (+1.15), Difficulty Rank 7 of 50 courses. 2018: 69.83 (-0.17), Difficulty Rank 20 of 51 courses. 2019: 70.86 (+0.86), Difficulty Rank 7 of 49 courses. 2020: 69.57 (-0.43), Difficulty Rank 13 of 41 courses. 2021: 70.21 (+0.21), Difficulty Rank 18 of 51 courses. 2022: 70.72 (+0.72), Difficulty Rank 11 of 50 courses.
Colonial Country Club Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Colonial Country Club and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Course Overview: Colonial provides its winners with a plaid jacket that’s extremely similar to those handed to the champions at Harbour Town. The similarities don’t end there as the two courses share traditional values in the modern world of the PGA Tour. Colonial is short by today’s standards, but the course only features 24 acres of fairway making tee shot target areas extremely small. Errant drives are captured by tough Bermudagrass rough with most fairways on the property being tree-lined ensuring plenty of blocked approach shots for those that deviate errantly.
As with most classical courses, there’s no particular right or wrong game-shape which dominates the list of champions. Both short game specialists (Kevin Na, Kevin Kisner, Jordan Spieth, Chris Kirk and Zach Johnson) and ball-strikers (Sam Burns, Jason Kokrak, Daniel Berger, Justin Rose, Adam Scott and Boo Weekley) have an equal chance of victory on this Texan classical Colonial layout.
2022 saw Sam Burns come from 7 shots back at the start of Sunday, shooting a final round -5/65 in +30mph gusting southerly winds, whilst leader Scottie Scheffler shot +2/72 then losing to best friend Burns in a play-off. Scottie ranked number 1 for Greens in Regulation and Tee to Green, whilst burns hit 7 less green but was far sharper with the putter, especially on Sunday – a 6 stroke swing with Scheffler on the greens.
2021 saw a head-to-head between Jordan Spieth and Jason Kokrak who eventually prevailed on a nervy final day; they entered Sunday 5 and 4 shots clear of the pack. Kokrak was 4th for Fairways Hit, 2nd for Greens in Regulation, 2nd for Strokes Gained Tee to Green, and was in the top 10 for Putts per GIR and Strokes Gained Putting – the complete performance.
The 2020 renewal was a classic with Abraham Ancer, Daniel Berger, Corey Conners, Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Reed, Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Gary Woodland and others all within 3 strokes of 54-hole leader Xander Schauffele. Eventually after Morikawa missed a 7 foot putt for the title, Collin faced Daniel Berger in a playoff, with Berger capturing his first title for 3 years. The magic combination for Berger was 4th for Greens in Regulation, 4th for Proximity to Hole, 5th for Strokes Gained Approach and 8th for Strokes Gained Putting.
Kevin Na in 2019 was accurate and efficient from tee to green, ranking 17th for Driving Accuracy, 1st for Greens in Regulation and 1st for Strokes Gained on Approach. Give a putter like Na a week like that from tee to green and he’s impossible to catch and so it proved. In 2018 Justin Rose put on a typical ball-striking clinic – 6th for Driving Accuracy, 1st for Greens in Regulation, 1st for Ball Striking and 1st for SG on Approach, when he won in incessant heat. Little wind and watered greens helped him to amass a -20/260 winning total. Kevin Kisner played some lovely, balanced, plotting golf – 1st Driving Accuracy, 2nd Greens in Regulation, 2nd Scrambling, 3rd Strokes Gained Putting – when he won this in 2017 on a firm course with gusting 25 mph to 30 mph winds a feature. Jordan Spieth (2016) and Chris Kirk (2015) were wayward off the tee and scrambled and putted their way to victory; prior to that Adam Scott (2014) and Boo Weekley (2013) who diligently plotted their way around the Par 70, both ranking in the top 10 for Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation.
Power isn’t a huge advantage around this layout where birdies are hard to come by if the wind blows – Colonial traditionally ranks in the top 15 toughest in Birdie Average. Only 2 par-5s, namely the 1st and the 11th, traditionally rank in the top 20 toughest on the whole PGA Tour for Birdie or Better, so look for players who are comfortable to score on both par-3s and par-4s.
And remember we are dealing with Bentgrass greens at Colonial Country Club, for the only the fourth time in 2023 on the Tour. These Bentgrass green complexes have nuances that take real time to understand. No wonder therefore that experienced players with a liking for tight, tree-lined layouts tend to thrive here.
Charles Schwab Challenge Winners: 2022: Sam Burns (-9); 2021: Jason Kokrak (-14); 2020: Daniel Berger (-15); 2019: Kevin Na (-13); 2018: Justin Rose (-20); 2017: Kevin Kisner (-10); 2016: Jordan Spieth (-17); 2015: Chris Kirk (-12); 2014: Adam Scott (-9); 2013: Boo Weekley (-14); 2012: Zach Johnson (-12); 2011: David Toms (-13); 2010: Zach Johnson (-21).
2022: Sam Burns 71-68-67-65 -9/271 AM/PM Wave
2021: Jason Kokrak 65-65-66-70 -14/266 PM/AM Wave
2020: Daniel Berger 65-67-67-66 -15/265 AM/PM Wave
2019: Kevin Na 70-62-69-66 -13/267 PM/AM Wave
2018: Justin Rose 66-64-66-64 -20/260 PM/AM Wave
OWGR of Charles Schwab Challenge Winners: 2022: Burns 10; 2021: Kokrak 35; 2020: Berger 107; 2019: Na 52; 2018: Rose 5.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa, Tony Finau, Sam Burns, Sungjae Im, Justin Rose, Brendon Todd, Lucas Herbert, Viktor Hovland and Denny McCarthy.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
Charles Schwab Challenge Winners & Prices: 2022: Burns 30/1; 2021: Kokrak 60/1; 2020: Berger 70/1; 2019: Na 70/1; 2018: Rose 20/1; 2017: Kisner 33/1; 2016: Spieth 7/1F; 2015: Kirk 35/1; 2014: Scott 18/1; 2013: Weekley 100/1; 2012: Z Johnson 16/1; 2011: Toms 33/1; 2010: Z Johnson 50/1.Past 9 Renewals Average: 38/1; Overall Average: 42/1.
Historical Weather:
2022: Thursday: Sunny. High of 85. Wind SW 10-15, gusting to 22 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 93. Wind Variable 3-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 97. Wind S 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 96. Wind S 16-22 mph, with gusts to 32 mph.
2021: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 89. Wind S 12-22 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 80. Wind NE 6-12 mph. Due to heavy rain and lightning, the second round was suspended from 1:49 – 4:15 p.m. CT (2 hours, 26 minutes). Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 79. Wind ENE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 78. Wind ESE 10-18 mph.
2020: Thursday: Sunny. High of 93. Wind E 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 95. Wind ESE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 97. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 97. Wind SE 6-12 mph.
2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 89. Wind SSE 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 90. Wind SSE 12-18 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Saturday: Weather: Partly cloudy. High of 90. Wind SSE 7-14 mph, with gusts to 17 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 89. Winds S 10-16 mph, with gusts to 22 mph.
2018: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 92. Wind SSE 6-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 94. Wind SSE 7-13 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 97. Wind SSE 7-14 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 99. Wind ESE 5-10 mph.
2017: Thursday: Sunny with a high of 93. Wind S 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30 mph. Friday: Sunny with a high of 98. Wind SW 15-20 mph, with gusts of 25 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high of 96. Wind SSW 15-20 mph, with gusts of 25 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 82. Wind N 10-15 mph.
2016: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 83. Wind S at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy early turning to partly sunny skies in the afternoon. Warm and humid, with a high of 86. Wind SSE at 10-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy early turning to partly sunny skies in the afternoon. Warm and humid, with a high of 86. Wind SSE at 10-15 mph. Sunday: Due to early morning thunderstorms, the original tee times featuring twosomes off of one tee beginning at 7:30 a.m. were changed to a two-tee start with threesomes at 10:19 a.m. Mostly cloudy. High of 85. Wind SSE at 10-15 mph
2015: Weather: Thursday: Cloudy, but drier in the afternoon, with highs reaching only into the lower 60s. North wind at 10-20 mph. A total of 1.3 inches of rain fell overnight and into the morning. Friday: Overcast, with intermittent rain throughout the day. High of 76, with N wind at 7-12 mph. Saturday: Overcast, with a high of 76. Wind SE at 15-25 mph. Sunday: Due to the likeliness of inclement weather, final-round tee times were between 7-9 a.m. Cloudy with rain most of the day and a high of 79. Wind SSW at 10-20 mph.
Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Fort Worth, Texas, is here. Compared to Oak Hill last week, think far warmer with less wind. Temperatures will range from 28 to 29 degrees Celsius (82 – 84 Fahrenheit). Greens will be watered on that basis. South easterly winds look light.
Wednesday sees a high chance of rain, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a soft golf course on Thursday before the heat takes over and dries the fairways and rough for the rest of the tournament. All in all, expect the usual mid-teens winning score unless un-forecasted wind arrives.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Valero Texas Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Cam Davis; 3) Byeong Hun An; 4) Tommy Fleetwood; 5) Hayden Buckley / Viktor Hovland; 7) Cameron Champ / S.H. Kim / Vincent Norrman; 10) Garrick Higgo; 11) Sungjae Im; 12) Luke List; 13) Austin Eckroat; 14) Ryan Palmer; 15) Joseph Bramlett / Lucas Herbert / Beau Hossler; 18) Ryan Fox; 19) K.H. Lee; 20) Patrick Rodgers; 21) Stephan Jaeger / Si Woo Kim / Sam Stevens; 24) Greyson Sigg; 25) Collin Morikawa.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Collin Morikawa; 3) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Hayden Buckley; 5) Michael Block / Russell Henley; 7) Andrew Novak; 8) Andrew Putnam; 9) Tony Finau / Nate Lashley / Chez Reavie; 12) Justin Rose; 13) Akshay Bhatia / Tommy Fleetwood / Dylan Wu; 16) Viktor Hovland; 17) J.J. Spaun; 18) Rickie Fowler; 19) Erik van Rooyen; 20) Eric Cole / Vincent Norrman / Alex Smalley; 23) K.H. Lee; 24) Ryan Palmer / Jordan Spieth.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Harry Hall; 2) Justin Rose; 3) Chris Kirk; 4) Aaron Baddeley / Brendon Todd; 6) Tony Finau; 7) Peter Malnati / Scottie Scheffler; 9) Eric Cole; 10) Alex Noren; 11) Kevin Streelman; 12) S.H. Kim / Robby Shelton; 14) Byeong Hun An; 15) Kevin Kisner; 16) Zac Blair / Beau Hossler / Min Woo Lee; 19) Tommy Fleetwood / Jimmy Walker; 21) Greyson Sigg / Danny Willett; 23) Stephan Jaeger; 24) Rickie Fowler / Russell Henley; 25) Harris English / Harry Higgs / Henrik Norlander.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Tommy Fleetwood; 3) Russell Henley / Viktor Hovland; 5) Tony Finau; 6) Hayden Buckley; 7) Eric Cole / Rickie Fowler; 9) Byeong Hun An / Vincent Norrman; 11) Collin Morikawa / Justin Rose; 13) Chris Kirk; 14) Joseph Bramlett; 15) Stephan Jaeger; 16) Si Woo Kim / J.J. Spaun; 18) Lucas Herbert / K.H. Lee; 20) Michael Block / Sungjae Im / Jordan Spieth / Kevin Streelman; 24) Andrew Putnam; 25) Akshay Bhatia / Patrick Rodgers.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Michael Block; 2) Marty Dou; 3) Aaron Baddeley / Denny McCarthy; 5) Justin Rose / Justin Suh; 7) Chez Reavie; 8) Nick Taylor; 9) Brendon Todd; 10) Dylan Wu; 11) Beau Hossler; 12) Jimmy Walker; 13) Taylor Moore; 14) Luke Donald / Tommy Fleetwood / Patrick Rodgers; 17) Michael Kim; 18) Emiliano Grillo; 19) Max Homa; 20) Hayden Buckley / Sam Burns / Billy Horschel / Sam Ryder; 24) K.H. Lee; 25) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / J.T. Poston / Jordan Spieth / Carson Young.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Michael Block; 3) Justin Rose; 4) Tommy Fleetwood; 5) Hayden Buckley / Denny McCarthy; 7) Rickie Fowler; 8) Eric Cole / K.H. Lee; 10) Aaron Baddeley; 11) Russell Henley; 12) Joseph Bramlett / Vincent Norrman; 14) Viktor Hovland; 15) Chris Kirk; 16) Patrick Rodgers; 17) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Marty Dou / Beau Hossler / Dylan Wu; 21) Byeong Hun An / Chez Reavie; 23) Tony Finau; 24) Emiliano Grillo / Sungjae Im.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at Colonial Country Club since 2016 click here.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Charles Schwab Challenge winners since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
2022, Sam Burns (-9). SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 12th, SG Around the Green: 38th, SG Tee to Green: 9th, SG Putting: 6th.
2021, Jason Kokrak (-14). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 61st, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 7th.
2020, Daniel Berger (-15). SG Off the Tee: 31st, SG Approach: 5th, SG Around the Green: 27th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 8th.
2019, Kevin Na (-13). SG Off the Tee: 18th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 58th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 2nd.
2018, Justin Rose (-20). SG Off the Tee: 4th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 19th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 21st.
2017, Kevin Kisner (-10). SG Off the Tee: 30th, SG Approach: 23rd, SG Around the Green: 2nd, SG Tee to Green: 5th, SG Putting: 3rd.
2016, Jordan Spieth (-17). SG Off the Tee: 5th, SG Approach: 30th, SG Around the Green: 6th, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 2nd.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 12th, SG Approach: 11th, SG Around the Green: 30th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 7th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Charles Schwab Challenge winners since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this tough, desert golf test:
2022, Sam Burns (-9). 321 yards (4th), 53.6% fairways (38th), 66.7% greens in regulation (7th), 36’4″ proximity to hole (47th), 62.5 % scrambling (32nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (4th).
2021, Jason Kokrak (-14). 321 yards (1st), 73.2% fairways (4th), 75.0% greens in regulation (2nd), 29’7″ proximity to hole (9th), 61.1 % scrambling (42nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (9th).
2020, Daniel Berger (-15). 308 yards (23rd), 62.5% fairways (17th), 77.8% greens in regulation (4th), 28’1″ proximity to hole (4th), 68.8 % scrambling (25th), 1.64 putts per GIR (8th).
2019, Kevin Na (-13). 292 yards (58th), 60.7% fairways (17th), 77.8% greens in regulation (1st), 29’1″ proximity to hole (1st), 68.8 % scrambling (15th), 1.68 putts per GIR (5th).
2018, Justin Rose (-20). 306 yards (17th), 66.1% fairways (6th), 79.2% greens in regulation (1st), 25’3″ proximity to hole (2nd), 66.7% scrambling (30th), 1.61 putts per GIR (5th).
2017, Kevin Kisner (-10). 293 yards (39th), 71.4% fairways (1st), 73.6% greens in regulation (2nd), 33’3″ proximity to hole (21st), 78.9 % scrambling (2nd), 1.76 putts per GIR (28th).
2016, Jordan Spieth (-17). 299 yards (14th), 50.0% fairways (54th), 70.8% greens in regulation (17th), proximity to hole 34’8″ (59th), 85.7 % scrambling (1st), 1.65 putts per GIR (4th).
2015, Chris Kirk (-12). 277 yards (41st), 50.0% fairways (60th), 63.9% greens in regulation (62nd), proximity to hole 33’9″ (57th), 61.5 % scrambling (39th), 1.57 putts per GIR (1st).
2014, Adam Scott (-9). 290 yards (52nd), 66.1% fairways (8th), 72.2% greens in regulation (13th), proximity to hole 29’2″ (4th), 70.0 % scrambling (16th), 1.73 putts per GIR (17th).
2013, Boo Weekley (-14). 299 yards (17th), 71.4% fairways (6th), 75.0% greens in regulation (5th), proximity to hole 25’9″ (1st), 61.1% scrambling (40th), 1.65 putts per GIR (5th).
2012, Zach Johnson (-12). 289 yards (51st), 58.9% fairways (26th), 62.5% greens in regulation (38th), proximity to hole 35’3″ (26th), 70.4% scrambling (3rd), 1.62 putts per GIR (2nd).
2011, David Toms (-15). 299 yards (28th), 67.9% fairways (4th), 72.2% greens in regulation (4th), proximity to hole 28’1″ (2nd), 70.0% scrambling (5th), 1.58 putts per GIR (1st).
2010, Zach Johnson (-21). 291 yards (45th), 69.6% fairways (10th), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), proximity to hole 25’10” (6th), 72.7% scrambling (13th), 1.66 putts per GIR (11th).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 30th, Driving Accuracy: 19th, Greens in Regulation: 12th, Proximity to Hole: 18th, Scrambling: 20th, Putting Average 8th.
Let’s take a view from players as to how Colonial Country Club sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Sam Burns (2022): “It felt like somewhat of a major championship type conditions where you’re just going to have those stretches where it’s really hard. But the way that we were able to just get the ball in position and get it around here in 5-under par today I thought was a really good score.“
“The thing a lot of people don’t understand is the putting is just as difficult. You see these guys missing these short putts and it was like, it’s not that they’re nervous, it’s just that hard when the wind is blowing 30 miles an hour. It’s moving those golf balls on the green. That’s the most difficult part is just because you’re lying up there in two and a half, three feet, it’s not just go up there and brush it in. It’s going to have your full attention.”
“Well, I think a lot of different areas, but from a golf course standpoint, just for this week, for example, when I played here in the past, I have not hit enough drivers. I always try to lay back a little bit. We talked about that early in the week, the advantage does not match up to laying back. You need to push it around this golf course. That’s what we did. Even if it was uncomfortable or whatever it was, we just tried to hit the correct shots at the right times and tried to execute as best as possible.”
Jason Kokrak (2021): ” I’m comfortable around this golf course. A lot of the harder holes, I can hit shorter clubs off of. Doesn’t really bode well when I hit 4-iron in the middle of the trees on the last hole but overall I can take advantage of my length but also hit irons off a couple of tees where I’m uncomfortable. I think it’s just I’m able to take advantage of the shorter clubs I have in on some of these holes and then I’m also able to take advantage of the harder holes, I can hit iron or I have a 7-wood in the bag, I think on what is it, 4 or 5, the tough par 4, I hit 7-wood, 7-iron in there so I didn’t have to hit 3-wood or driver off there to hit a mid-iron into that green.I tend to like tougher golf courses that I know it’s soft this week and I know it’s quite a few under is going to win. But I’m comfortable here.”
Kevin Na (2019): “Yeah, I like this golf course. One of those golf courses I look forward to coming to. Fits my game; I’ve got a good record. You got to take advantage of those weeks because there is not too many golf courses like this on tour anymore. I’d rank Colonial in the top 3 of PGA Tour courses with Riviera and Hilton Head.
Yeah, 1st hole (par-5) I hit a good drive off the tee. Keeping in the fairway is huge there. I had a biggest cut. 3-wood was too much and my hybrid is enough, so I had a big cut. Ended up about three feet and felt like a bonus starting day. This is a golf course you don’t do anything different. You play your game. You see that white stone in the middle of the fairway? That’s where I’m trying to be every hole.
It’s a great designed golf course. You got to hit a lot of draws off the tee. Just some of the way the hole sits, I like it. Few cut holes. I can cut it when I need to. Mostly I think a lot of my draws work out here.
And I mentioned this many times, I feel like it’s a second-shot-in golf course. The golf course, everyone kind of puts it in the same position off the tee and same spot. It’s about how good you can hit it with the irons and how well you can putt. I’m a pretty good player fairway in.”
Justin Rose (2018): “Every hole tempts you to hit driver in a way, you know. Every hole is just wide enough to hit driver, but it’s narrow enough if you miss it it’s going to be, you’re going to have some type of challenge. The fairway bunkers are so good here you can almost challenge them and feel like if you’re in them it’s not such a penalty because they play firm. You don’t get many balls that sit down in these bunkers. I think that’s why guys do tend to be aggressive. It’s the type of rough here where you catch a lot of fliers and the greens are small and tricky. So catching fliers into these greens you’ll make a lot bogeys. For me, keeping it in play. I’m pretty confident in my iron play right now. If I am around that 150, then I’m pretty comfortable right now.
I think the rough is tough enough around here if you catch a bad lie it’s hard to get it to the green. If you have a decent lie, huge fliers in play around here. The greens are small. If the ball is in play it takes it out of the equation. I chanced my luck a little bit. Hit a bad tee shot on 18. I did the right things at the right time today. I was getting a little frustrated early in my round not making a few putts, and then made a putt at the right time, which kind of just kept my head up and kept things moving forward.”
Kevin Kisner (2017): “Played nicely coming down the fairway, which you got to do around here. I’ve played really conservative on the pins I didn’t like. I just love the golf course. I feel super comfortable. I know the pins I wants to go after and the pins I don’t. It’s just like what I grew up on, so that’s why I love it. Most important thing about playing well around here is getting the ball in the fairway, because you just can’t get to the small greens out of the rough. You get so blocked out with the trees if you’re in the rough that you hit so many run-up shots you’re just not going to hit the greens with. Probably hit 11, 12 fairways both days. You’re going to hit some short irons. If you hit the green, you don’t have more than about a 25-footer for birdie.”
Chris Kirk (2016): “I’ve played well here over the years, but I don’t think people would consider me an elite ball striker or shot maker necessarily. It’s been a course that’s suited guys who hit the ball right to left over the years, Zach Johnson, Kenny Perry, Stricker, some other guys like that, and I definitely fit in that category. I think that I’ve always been a very good iron player. I may not have driven the ball as well as some guys over the years, but I’ve always been a very good, solid iron player and control my distance really well and usually play well in the wind, and if you pair that with making a putt here or there, that usually does well around here.
The course appeals to more of a feel player. If you can kind of flight your shots and work the ball with the wind here and there, you’re going to have a big advantage out here because there’s a ton of cross-winds that you play in on this course. You’ll get a lot of off the left and a little in or maybe a little help. It’s just a lot of sort of calculating exactly what that wind is doing on those iron shots, and you have to be very precise with how small the greens are here. So yeah, I would think that a feel player and being able to judge those distances and judge that wind just right is crucial here.”
Jordan Spieth (2015): “I think it’s going to be easier to hit fairways because one of the harder parts when this is firm and fast is holding the fairway. So it’s going to be easier to hit fairways, but I think if you don’t hit the fairway, I would imagine the rough’s going to be very healthy. You’re going to have to judge if it’s going to come out fat or if it’s going to come out as a flyer. And if you get above the hole around here, it doesn’t matter if they’re wet or not, they’re going to be fast, and you’re going to struggle. So it’s still going to be a test. I think that, yes, I think that the scores, if it’s moist, they’ll be lower. I don’t know about record setting, but doesn’t really change much about the tournament, though. It doesn’t make it a bomber’s course. It doesn’t make it favour I don’t think any type of player. It’s just going to be more of a premium on hitting fairway.”
Adam Scott (2015): “But this is going to be a really good week to, you know, really play within myself. You can’t be wild around this golf course. You have to really hit the fairway this week. There’s a premium on that. The rough is up. It will be very hard to score well playing from off the fairway this week. So I think it’s a good week for me to really, you know, kind of tone things down a little bit and be very patient, which is pretty much how I played last year and it worked well. Well, the course is not too soft at the moment. So it’s in good shape. But ideally it would stay this way. When the course gets soft and quite soggy, it plays a lot easier for us because the ball doesn’t run so far off line as fairways get wider, greens become bigger. So I would say scoring is better. And certainly around this course, when this gets firm, it presents challenges, because you can’t bite off corners on holes that dogleg because the fairways are so narrow if the ball is running, and you have to be very precise into the greens when it’s firm as well leaving it under the hole. It’s the old style of golf that will prevail over 72 holes if you’re fairly cautious and make few mistakes, you’ll have a good score.”
Matt Kuchar (2014): “It was interesting watching Ryan Palmer go around last year, being a local guy that plays here quite a bit. When you feel like it’s more your home course when you’re playing just for fun, you’re not playing out of irons, irons just aren’t that much fun to hit off the tee. So Ryan is used to hitting driver off most tees. So hitting drivers off the tee, I flip flop every now and then between a driver, sometimes as a 3 wood. Watching a local guy pull driver there, maybe there is something to it. I hit driver there a bit, but that being said, my drive is a little different than some of the longer guys. But my driving accuracy is pretty strong. I think that’s a strength of mine. I try to use those strengths on certain holes where I can take an advantage. Maybe 9, if I’m feeling good with the driver to make that into a birdie hole and try to turn what a lot of times to get a par and get out of there into a legitimate shot at making birdie.”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the Charles Schwab Challenge since 2010:
Shots From the Lead: Below are the Charles Schwab Challenge winners since 2010 and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
7 – Justin Rose.
5 – Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth.
2 – Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Brian Harman, Billy Horschel, Chris Kirk, K.H. Lee, Troy Merritt.
1 – Sam Burns, Cameron Champ, Luke Donald, Dylan Frittelli, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Michael Kim, Kevin Kisner, Russell Knox, David Lingmerth, Ben Martin, J.T. Poston, Chez Reavie, Rory Sabbatini, Scottie Scheffler, Scott Stallings, Kevin Streelman, Brendon Todd, Danny Willett.
Colonial has a habit of producing shorter-priced winners. Justin Rose won at 20/1 in 2018, whilst Kevin Kisner won at 33/1 in 2016 and Jordan Spieth was the 7/1 favourite in 2015. Chris Kirk delivered at 35/1 in 2015, whilst Adam Scott was 18/1 in 2014. Prior to that, winner’s prices at the Crowne Plaza Invitational read: 2009: 28/1; 2010: 50/1; 2011: 33/1; 2012: 16/1. Outside of that, the in-form Boo Weekley scored here in 2014 at a very nice 100/1, and we need look no further than the last 4 champions here. Kevin Na won this at 70/1 in 2019, Daniel Berger in 2020 at 70/1, Jason Kokrak at 60/1 and Sam Burns last year at 30/1. Hardly outlandish prices in themselves. Overall across the past 8 renewals here we see an average winning price of 38/1.
It’s clear that experience wins around Colonial with all winners here since 2004 having played a minimum of 2 tournament appearances prior. But as with many a classical golf course, both short-game specialists or grinding ball-strikers can get the job done at Colonial Country Club, where scoring is generally low-teens to mid-teens under par unless the wind really blows.
From a course form perspective, we’ve seen mixed looks in terms of winners’ profiles here of late. Burns’ win here last year came in his third visit to Colonial with course form of MC/31. Berger’s win here in 2020 also came in his third appearance, where he had MC/53 to his name prior. Justin Rose’s victory here in 2018 was his first ever in Texas and came in his 5th appearance at Colonial. In those preceding visits to Fort Worth his best finish had been 13th way back on course debut in 2005. Adam Scott won here with nothing better than 64th and 65th in 2 previous appearances.
But conversely Kokrak (3rd), Na (4th, 7th, 9th and 10th), Kisner (5th and 10th), Kirk (5th), Weekley (9th), Zach Johnson (1st, 4th, 9th) and Toms (2nd, 3rd, 4th) all had top 10 results here before triumphing since 2011.
My Final Charles Schwab Challenge Tips Are As Follows
3rd for Team USA Ryder Cup qualification – behind only Scottie Scheffler and Brooks Koepka – we find Max Homa who yet again disappointed at a Major last week at Oak Hill. That means little for the task ahead this week although at +3 he found himself in 35th spot at the halfway stage, eventually finishing 55th. Hardly disastrous. He’s also behind the likes of both Spieth and Morikawa in the Charles Schwab Challenge betting – which looking at his course form makes some sense. However from a betting perspective it’s worth noting that Max has won 3 PGA Tour titles since Spieth’s last win (2022 RBC Heritage) and 4 since Morikawa’s (2021 Open Championship), so I’m prepared to take them both on with Homa at a tournament and course that should suit.
Homa has always been the sort who thrives on tree-lined classical tests where the scoring is around -10 to around mid to late teens under par. Looking at the course and the weather, Colonial should be perfect for the Californian this week. 11 of the approaches here are sub-150 yards, meaning that we are in for a “wedge fest” and Max ranks beautifully this season on that basis. In the top 45 for proximity from 100-125 yards and top 20 for approaches from 125-150 yards on the Tour, you can see why Homa has made 4 appearances here in Fort Worth. 23rd here 12 months ago was his best finish here with 3 rounds in the 60’s showing he’s learning this tricky test where experience pays.
8th at the Wells Fargo Championship just 3 weeks ago, Max is confident with the putter right now and if he can find the Tee to Green game that he had at Quail Hollow – 21st for Tee to Green – I can see him challenging for his 7th PGA Tour victory this week. RESULT: T9
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I’ll also have a bet on defending champion Sam Burns. A 5-time winner on the PGA Tour across his past 51 appearances, it’s interesting to see what level of preceding finish wins have actually come from. The answer is 4/18/26/20/6 but I’m prepared to write off the pair of Missed Cuts we have seen from Burns across May. Form of 55/WD at Quail Hollow prior to this season suggests he’s going to struggle at the North Carolina Major set-up and Burns, till this point, has never cut the mustard at Major Championship level, so last week was hardly a shock.
To this point Sam has really been quite a specialist – all 5 wins have come on Bermudagrass fairways, with Bermudagrass or Zoysiagrass rough. Wins have also come on golf courses measuring between 7,100 and 7,460 yards. So the booming Quail Hollow set-up which Viktor Hovland describes as a “driving range golf course” was never likely to fit, nor was a cold, long, golf course in New York State which featured north-eastern, non-Bermuda, agronomy.
So “relevant” form in my mind reads 6th at Valspar when defending (medium length Par 71 set-up featuring Bermudagrass agronomy), 1st at the WGC-Dell World Match Play (short Par 71 set-up featuring Bermudagrass agronomy) and 15th at Harbour Town (short Par 71 set-up featuring Bermudagrass agronomy). Burns when defending has finished 1st (2022 Valspar Championship), 30th (2022 Sanderson Farms Championship) and 6th (2023 Valspar Championship) plus despite ranking 14th in the OWGR, he now finds himself outside the 6 automatic spots for the American Ryder Cup team, with the likes of Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa and Tony Finau. RESULT: T6
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Justin Rose 1.5pts EW 28/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Justin Rose is a Colonial course winner coming off a 9th place finish at the PGA Championship last week. Not a bad combination I think you’ll agree.
The most winningest player on the PGA Tour since 2008 on Bentgrass greens in this field – 7 wins – the 42 year-old has undoubtedly had a renaissance in Ryder Cup year. The winner of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, since then he’s finished 6th at The Players Championship, 16th at The Masters and 9th last week at the PGA. He was also 2nd going into the weekend at the RBC Heritage – before finishing an eventual 25th on Bermudagrass greens I never have thought have been to his liking. Facts are that Justin has always been better away from Bermudagrass greens as 9 of this 11 PGA Tour titles have been on Bentgrass or Poa Annua greens, so Colonial fits nicely in that regard as did Oak Hill last week.
13th (2005), 1st (2018) and 3rd (2020) here at Colonial, the World Number 29 ranks 3rd here for Strokes Gained Total. Ranking 8th for Strokes Gained Ball Striking in this field at Colonial, he also putts well here, ranking 10th in this field for Strokes Gained Putting. 27th for Birdie Average and 20th for Strokes Gained Putting across the PGA Tour season to date, the London-based ex World Number 1 was 13th for Approach, 17th for Tee to Green and 13th for Putting from a Strokes Gained perspective in Rochester last week. He’s also 3rd for Strokes Gained Current Form in this field over the past 8 weeks. RESULT: T12
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Harris English 1pt EW 66/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Harris English is another who’s perfectly suited for the classical Colonial test this week, and his game is undoubtedly on the upturn after a post 2021 Ryder Cup hangover.
2022 and early 2023 were very poor, but since February there have been real green shoots of progress. 12th at the Genesis Invitational, English has gone onto finish 2nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 3rd at the Wells Fargo Championship. All elevated events and it’s noticeable that Harris’ fundamentals are also improving. 21st for Total Driving, 8th for Total Accuracy and 13th for Greens in Regulation at Quail Hollow, he gained 7.50 Strokes with his Approach play – that’s his best iron play performance going back to the 2017 St Jude Classic and 2nd best ever on Tour. And at an event where Strokes Gained Putting is far more than important than a standard week on the PGA Tour, the World Number 39, ranks 22nd season to date with the flat stick.
Wins at TPC Southwind (2013), El Camaleon (2013) and TPC River Highlands (2021) – short to medium length non Par 72s – correlate well with Colonial and his form here in Fort Worth is eye-catching. 5th on debut in 2012, Harris has finished 30th (2014), 2nd (2016), 29th (2017) and 20th (2018) across 7 appearances. RESULT: T12
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Kevin Tway 0.5pt ew 250/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
Kevin Tway is sparky in the extreme. Awful for weeks, sometimes months at a time, on the odd occasion he finds his game and strings each-way payout results together. The PGA Tour focussing on Bermudagrass greens for months on end doesn’t help the Oklahoma State University graduate, who undoubtedly plays his best stuff on Bentgrass or Bentgrass Poa Annua green surfaces. So when the Tour travels to California, Texas or Up-State, you often see Kevin’s name towards the higher echelons of the leaderboard.
His one win on the PGA Tour came at the 2018 Safeway Open played on the short, classical, tree-lined, Silverado course which features Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix greens. 6th (2018) and 5th (2019) at the Travelers Championship, played at TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, Connecticut, which again sports similar green agronomy to Silverado, Tway also tends to play well in Texas. 20th (2017) at Las Colinas (Bentgrass putting surfaces), 9th (2018) at Trinity Forest, 2nd (2021) at Memorial Park and 11th (2 weeks ago) at TPC Craig Ranch (Bentgrass putting surfaces), highlights that Kevin likes to play in the Lone Star State. That 11th by the way featured closing rounds of 66-63, which was T4 for Last 36 Hole Scoring, behind only winner Jason Day, Eckroat and Jaeger.
At 131st in the FedEx Cup, Tway needs a decent week to boost his chances of retaining his card, and this week’s Sponsor’s Invite will have been well received on the basis he plays well here at Colonial. 18th (2017), 5th (2018) and 19th (2019) from 6 appearances, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tway, who ranked 9th for Strokes Gained Approach and 21st for Strokes Gained Putting at Craig Ranch, contend for a top 10 or better this week in Fort Worth. RESULT: MC
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Chez Reavie 0.5pt EW 350/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
A soft, tough, 7,400 yard Par 70, Major Championship venue didn’t scream Chez Reavie to me, so I was surprised to see the 41 year-old on the fringes of the first page of the PGA Championship leaderboard on Sunday afternoon. 3 birdies in his first 5 holes had the Kansas born, Scottsdale, Arizona resident in and around the top 15, but a closing 39 on the back-9 ended his challenge. His eventual 40th flies under the radar, although in reality a double bogey on the 18th put paid to a top 26 finish.
Reavie though is the sort who likes courses where Driving Accuracy actually gains Strokes Off the Tee. 8th (2017) and 3rd (2019) at Waialae CC (Sony Open); 2nd (2018) and 3rd (2019 U.S. Open) at Pebble Beach; 2nd (2018) and 4th (2019) at TPC Scottsdale (WM Phoenix Open); 1st (2019) and 8th (2022) at TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship); 1st (2008) at Glen Abbey (RBC Canadian Open); 5th (2011) at TPC Deere Run (John Deere Classic); 4th (2017), 6th (2018) and 6th (2020) at TPC Southwind (St Jude); 3rd (2020) at Silverado (Fortinet Championship); 4th (2016) at El Camaleon (WWT Championship). All courses where short, straight hitters with a strong wedge game can compete. So theoretically Colonial Country Club should suit Chez well this week.
5th (2011), 11th (2013) and 27th (last year), Reavie has played well here in the past, and right now he’s undoubtedly playing some decent golf under the radar. 6th at the Texas Open, 11th at the RBC Heritage and 49th (19th after 36 holes) at the Mexico Open preceded the PGA Championship. That translates across my 8-week Strokes Gained trackers in this field to ranks of 9th for Approach, 7th for Putting and 21st for Current Form. RESULT: T40
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