Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Portugal Masters Tips 2022

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Having reached 13-under par with 8 holes to play in Mallorca – two of which were eminently reachable par-5s for a player of his length – it was frustrating to see 45/1 shot Nicolai Hojgaard play those final holes in 4 over par, especially given that the winning score was just 15-under in the end. Congratulations if you were on eventual winner Yannik Paul, who’d shown enough potential for the bookies to be pricing him at 25/1 or shorter last week.

This week we return to the Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course for the 15th consecutive year for the Portugal Masters, before heading to South Africa for the Nedbank Golf Challenge after a week off; we then hop across to the Earth Course the week after for the Tour’s finale to round off the season.

Needs must at this time of the year and with just 120 players teeing it up this week, many of the field will have a keen eye on their R2D ranking with those around or inside the top 50 looking to bolster or improve their position. Others further down the list will be looking to ensure that they’re inside the top 117, which is the provisional position for retention of playing rights into next season.

With last year’s winner Thomas Pieters not in attendance this week, favouritism falls to Robert MacIntyre at around the 14/1 mark as he looks to win for a second time this autumn and further improve his Ryder Cup qualification position. Jordan Smith (16/1) and Victor Perez (18/1) complete the leading trio, with the likes of Antoine Rozner, Yannik Paul, Eddie Pepperell, Nicolai Hojgaard and Matt Wallace following on closely behind.

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Odds above used for illustrative purposes and were correct at 14:40BST 24.10.22, but are naturally subject to fluctuation.

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Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course, Vilamoura, Portugal. Designer: Arnold Palmer, 2004; Course Type: Resort; Par: 71; Length: 7,191 yards; Fairways: Bermuda; Rough: Bermuda; Greens: L93 Bentgrass/Poa; Stimp: 10.5ft.

Course Overview. The Victoria course tends to be set up to suit the more aggressive players who can handle the fast, undulating Bent/Poa greens, however a premium still remains on finding the vast majority of greens in regulation to be in position to make a decent enough score to contend on Sunday afternoon.

The 7,191 yard, par 71 Arnold Palmer design is pretty flat and exposed with water in play on 7 holes and a number of strategically-placed fairway bunkers to contend with; it’s not overly difficult by today’s standards and a score of 18-under par or better has generally been required to be in with a sniff coming down the stretch in recent times.

The addition of some new trees prior to the 2019 event was intended to prevent the bombers from cutting corners on a number of holes, plus a new strain of Bermuda rough has been used to help the course become more water-efficient, however the course hasn’t changed fundamentally and with good weather forecast I’d still expect high teens under par to be contending for the win on Sunday afternoon, give or take.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key statistics for this week’s event that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at Vilamoura: Current Form | Course Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Course Winners. 2021, Thomas Pieters, 25/1; 2020, George Coetzee, 16/1; 2019, Steven Brown, 150/1; 2018: Tom Lewis, 50/1; 2017: Lucas Bjerregaard, 66/1; 2016: Padraig Harrington, 100/1; 2015: Andy Sullivan, 50/1; 2014: Alexander Levy, 70/1; 2013: David Lynn, 80/1; 2012: Shane Lowry, 66/1; 2011: Tom Lewis, 100/1; 2010: Richard Green, 50/1.

For a summary of winners’ odds on the European Tour for the past 10 years click here.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

A settled four days are expected with dry and largely sunny weather and temperatures reaching the mid 70s Fahrenheit in the afternoons. The breeze will be generally light at 5-10mph throughout, maybe a little higher on Saturday.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the last 12 winners of this event gives us a little more insight into the type of player suited to this test:

  • 2021, Thomas Pieters (-19). 288.9 yards (24th). 51.8% fairways (15th), 75.0% greens in regulation (13th), 66.7% scrambling (27th), 1.66 putts per GIR (6th)
  • 2020, George Coetzee (-16). 297.8 yards (15th). 48.2% fairways (48th), 68.1% greens in regulation (32nd), 69.6% scrambling (13th), 1.59 putts per GIR (2nd)
  • 2019, Steven Brown (-17). 286.1 yards (46th). 53.6% fairways (30th), 76.4% greens in regulation (29th), 82.4% scrambling (2nd), 1.65 putts per GIR (1st)
  • 2018, Tom Lewis (-22). 311.4 yards (12th), 41.1% fairways (69th), 76.4% greens in regulation (23rd), 41.2% scrambling (66th), 1.62 putts per GIR (5th)
  • 2017, Lucas Bjerregaard (-20). 339.1 yards (4th), 60.7% fairways (16th), 81.9% greens in regulation (4th), 53.8% scrambling (33rd), 1.61 putts per GIR (1st)
  • 2016, Padraig Harrington (-23). 301.5 yards (25th), 51.8% fairways (49th), 69.4% greens in regulation (67th), 81.8% scrambling (2nd), 1.54 putts per GIR (1st)
  • 2015, Andy Sullivan (-23). 310.6 yards (11th), 71.4% fairways (9th), 81.9% greens in regulation (5th), 100% scrambling (1st), 1.66 putts per GIR (4th)
  • 2014, Alex Levy (-18). 281.3 yards (40th), 71.4% fairways (11th), 77.8% greens in regulation (46th), 100% scrambling (1st), 1.46 putts per GIR (1st)
  • 2013, David Lynn (-18). 268.9 yards (67th), 42.9% fairways (70th), 77.8% greens in regulation (20th), 87.5% scrambling (2nd), 1.64 putts per GIR (7th)
  • 2012, Shane Lowry (-14). 302.3 yards (15th), 66.1% fairways (13th), 75.0% greens in regulation (13th), 55.6% scrambling (40th), 1.65 putts per GIR (1st)
  • 2011, Tom Lewis (-21). 309.5 yards (4th), 58.9% fairways (40th), 86.1% greens in regulation (4th), 80.0% scrambling (2nd), 1.74 putts per GIR (33rd)
  • 2010, Richard Green (-18). 281.3 yards (43rd), 71.4% fairways (14th), 83.3% greens in regulation (11th), 41.7% scrambling (59th), 1.72 putts per GIR (20th)

In lower-scoring years, the winner has generally dominated on the par 4s. Pieters was -10 for the par 4s, Brown was -13, Lewis was -11, Bjerregaard was -9, Harrington was -14, Sullivan was -13, Levy was -11 over two rounds, Lynn -10 and Lewis -7.

16 under from George Coetzee in 2020 was the second-highest winning score in that stretch detailed above and that was reflected in his par-4 scoring of -7.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, both Steven Brown and George Coetzee topped SG Putting on their way to victory, whereas Thomas Pieters excelled from Tee to Green:

  • 2021; Thomas Pieters. T: 14th; A: 4th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 38th; P: 11th
  • 2020: George Coetzee. T: 21st; A: 9th; T2G: 10th; ATG: 45th; P: 1st
  • 2019: Steven Brown. T: 35th; A: 35th; T2G: 33rd; ATG: 37th; P: 1st

A strong approach and tee-to-green game is a viable route to getting into contention here, however the eventual winner is still going to need to putt well on the week and 8 of the top 11 finishers last year also ranked inside the top 11 for SG Putting.

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: 7 of the past 12 winners here had recorded a win (Coetzee, Lewis, Sullivan, Levy) or a runner-up finish (Lynn, Lowry, Green) of some descriptions in that season to date, so had been clearly knocking at the door at various points that year; even Harrington with his pretty non-descript incoming form had finished 13th at the US PGA Championship which was a few levels higher than this.

2019 winner Steven Brown had recorded his best finish of an otherwise disappointing season the week before in France, George Coetzee arrived in hot form, having finished 2/1 on the Sunshine Tour on his previous 2 starts, and Thomas Pieters recorded 4 rounds in the 60s for a tie for 16th on his last outing:

  • 2021, Thomas Pieters: 29/12/35/16/54/MC/18/9/9/39/MC/16
  • 2020, George Coetzee: 24/21/6/MC/MC/2/8/6/7/MC/2/1
  • 2019, Steven Brown: 15/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/15/64/MC/37/MC/11
  • 2018, Tom Lewis: 30/MC/26/10/47/MC/3/29/6/65/1/3
  • 2017, Lucas Bjerregaard: MC/62/7/59/MC/MC/61/MC/17/28/43/9
  • 2016, Padraig Harrington: MC/MC/9/30/21/36/13/64/21/MC/MC/63
  • 2015, Andy Sullivan: 17/6/13/MC/6/62/30/MC/MC/18/MC/46
  • 2014, Alex Levy: 57/12/25/MC/12/35/21/58/30/67/MC/25
  • 2013, David Lynn: MC/MC/MC/17/MC/53/22/MC/19/MC/23/MC
  • 2012, Shane Lowry: 68/WD/MC/MC/51/17/11/2/49/MC/13/34
  • 2011, Tom Lewis: 59/30/10/70
  • 2010, Richard Green: 47/WD/2/MC/32/41/14/5/MC/11/8/29

Course Form: Overly positive form at the Victoria doesn’t look absolutely essential despite Tom Lewis having won this twice, both Padraig Harrington and David Lynn having recorded a 3rd place finish prior to their success, Lucas Bjerregaard arriving with consecutive top-12 finishes here, George Coetzee having recorded three top-7 finishes around these parts, and last year’s winner Thomas Pieters having finished 6th here back in 2015.

To balance that, Alex Levy and Tom Lewis (the first time around) were both playing here competitively for the first time when they won, and the other 4 winners since 2010 had hardly set the world alight on their previous attempts before lifting the trophy:

  • 2021, Thomas Pieters: 111/6/31/74
  • 2020, George Coetzee: 3/6/21/31/7/20/14
  • 2019, Steven Brown: 44/MC
  • 2018, Tom Lewis: 1/49/38/58/MC/29/39
  • 2017, Lucas Bjerregaard: 47/9/12
  • 2016, Padraig Harrington: 3/16/16/47/31
  • 2015, Andy Sullivan: 37/46/47
  • 2014, Alex Levy: Debut
  • 2013, David Lynn: 40/14/41/WD/3/MC
  • 2012, Shane Lowry: 30/54/16
  • 2011, Tom Lewis: Debut
  • 2010, Richard Green: 42

Despite the relatively recent changes, this Arnold Palmer design is a resort course first and foremost with wide fairways to encourage the longer hitters to attack.

It’s interesting to note though that Steven Brown, Richard Green and David Lynn aren’t the most aggressive of players and each have prevailed since 2010, so it’s clear that there’s more than one way to succeed around here. However, in general, I’d favour the more aggressive types who can attack through a combination of a strong tee-to-green performance, coupled with a good week on and around the greens.

My selections are as follows:

Nicolai Hojgaard 3pts EW 20/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

The early field here at Vilamoura promised the likes of Thomas Pieters, Rasmus Hojgaard and Adri Arnaus amongst others, which could have helped make this a really competitive betting heat, however the final field has left Robert MacIntyre as the favourite at around 14/1.

A win at the Italian Open and nothing worse than 20th in his 3 starts since is fair justification at the head of affairs, yet a single outing here in the Algarve where he finished a tailed-off 64th courtesy of a closing 82 doesn’t instil masses of confidence for a player that short in the betting.

Jordan Smith is plenty short enough too given his conversion rate, and of those at the very top of the market Victor Perez made the most appeal, however I’ll start my team this week a little further down by keeping faith in Nicolai Hojgaard.

Frustrating as it was to see the talented young Dane finish outside the each-way places last week when backed at around twice the price that’s on offer here, there was enough to suggest that a third DP World Tour title shouldn’t be too far away.

Statistically it looks like his game last week was propped up by the putter, yet Sunday saw him spurn enough opportunities on the greens to have got him very close to the winning total. Long game Strokes Gained numbers were impacted by reloaded tee-shots at the 7th on Thursday and the 17th on Sunday – plus a shank into the water on the par-5 11th on Friday when in prime position – however outside of that there was plenty to like, and this week should be a little more forgiving if he does produce the odd wild shot.

1st for SG Off the Tee and 16th for SG Tee to Green the week before at Valderrama suggests that the mistakes can be minimised, and perhaps of more consequence was the fact that the 21 year-old saw enough birdies dropping over the course of the week – 20 in total, 3rd in the field – to encourage that a low enough score can be compiled here this week to challenge for the title.

On top of the recent efforts, we also have a runner-up finish here at the Dom Pedro behind Thomas Pieters last year on debut to further bolster his case. 1st for Driving Distance and 2nd for Putting Average in old money last year is a potent combination on this track, and from a Strokes Gained perspective, 5th for Off the Tee and 2nd for Tee to Green tells us just how suited Nicolai is to this course. RESULT: MC

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Marcel Schneider 1.5pts EW 40/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

A little further down the betting, Marcel Schneider could take inspiration from compatriot Yannik Paul’s breakthrough DP World tour win last week and contend for his own maiden title at this level, having impressed a number of times already this season.

3 times a Challenge Tour winner, each of those wins came between 16- and 22-under which is a perfect range for the Portugal Masters, and the most recent of those successes came on Portuguese soil in September last year at the Open de Portugal at 19-under.

A solitary outing here at Vilamoura in 2020 resulted in a 44th place finish as he was getting to grips with life on the Tour following lockdown, however two years further down the line and I suspect we’ll see a significant improvement from the talented German this week.

His game should fit the course nicely in my view: long enough off the tee without being excessively long, Marcel tends to combine sufficient accuracy with his drives to help set up scoring opportunities, something that was evident again last week when he ranked 2nd for Total Driving in Mallorca. 37th for SG Off the Tee and 25th for SG Tee to Green are solid season-long rankings and he combines that with 24th for SG Putting to complete a compelling set of figures that could prove the key to unlocking this track.

At 53rd in the Race to Dubai, a final effort this week should be enough to see the 32 year-old make his debut at the Earth Course next month, which will top off his best-ever season at the top level. RESULT: T8

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✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

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Marcus Kinhult 1pt EW 80/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

The current and course form combinations on show from both Matthieu Pavon and Joakim Lagergren make them interesting plays this week, however I’ll reluctantly pass them both up given the prices on offer. Pavon in particular will have demons to exorcise here in the Algarve, having led by two strokes last year on the back 9 before finding the water three times to hand the trophy to Thomas Pieters.

At around twice the price, I’ll take a chance on Marcus Kinhult who has slightly less striking course and current form, but something to work with nevertheless.

4th here on debut in 2018, fuelled largely by back-to-back rounds of 65 on Friday and Saturday, the Swede hasn’t made the weekend on his subsequent two starts around these parts, although that’s kind of what you get with him.

The 26 year-old has talked openly about his challenges with epilepsy over the last few years which understandably held back his progress having made his breakthrough at the 2019 British Masters and coming close again at the Nedbank later that year, eventually losing out in a play-off to Tommy Fleetwood.

After a tough year in 2021, Kinhult got back to winning ways on the Nordic circuit before recording an 8th place finish at the Kenya Open and 3rd at the Qatar Masters in successive starts earlier this year. 3rd at the Cazoo Classic was another bright spot before he went off the boil again, however 6th at Valderrama on his last start – after opening with a round of 76 which looked like it would signal an early bath – was a positive outing ahead of this far more suitable layout.

Long enough and often straight enough to help set up scoring opportunities on tracks that encourage an aggressive approach, Marcus can also find the odd spark of form with the putter on Bentgrass-based greens such as we’ll see this week. RESULT: T34

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Ross Fisher 1pt EW 75/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

At a similar price, Ross Fisher also appeals having shown some positive signs at Valderrama on his last start, particularly with his long game performance.

14th at the most claustrophobic of tests saw the Englishman lead the field for Driving Distance, Greens In Regulation and Total Driving, whilst ranking 2nd for Driving Accuracy, 3rd for SG Approach, 6th for SG Off the Tee and 9th for SG Tee to Green. In short, a long game masterclass which we know the 41 year-old is capable of when at his best.

Now plucking out these exceptional performances from tee-to-green isn’t anything new for Ross as he’s been doing it for years, albeit less so in more recent times. What we really need though if the Londoner is going to contend is a positive week with the putter, and there has been the odd sign that things are improving in that respect. SG Putting was only marginally negative in Andalucia – that’s a good thing for Ross – and we saw him hit the dizzy heights of 10th in the field on that count at the Hero Open back at the end of April. Clearly something he’s acutely aware of, and something he’s working hard to improve upon.

Fisher’s record here at the Dom Pedro is also worthy of note. 7th here on debut in 2007, he’s gone on to finish 8th, 3rd and 2nd over the years on a course that he feels comfortable on and where he knows he can be competitive. 70th in the Race Dubai means it’s a seriously contending finish or he’s not making the Dubai finale this year, so perhaps that extra motivation will see him excel here this week. RESULT: T18

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✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

bet365 New Customer Offer: New Customers only. Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad

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Marc Warren 1pt EW 150/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

Finally, I’ll take a chance on Marc Warren at a juicy 3-figure price who’s shown some interesting sparks with the long game lately that warrant a little support here.

A typically inconsistent season for the Scot – where a series of missed cuts and tailed-off performances was countered by a 2nd place finish at the Scandinavian Mixed to the outstanding Linn Grant – he’s recently hinted at something a little more stable, fuelled by some strong iron play.

8th at the Spanish Open saw the 41 year-old hit 75% of greens in regulation, ranking 3rd in the field in that respect, and he improved on that further last week in Mallorca, hitting over 80% of putting surfaces in the requisite number to rank 2nd behind Ryan Fox. 4th for Driving Accuracy too last week inevitably helped all of his long-game Strokes Gained ranks stand out, with just a cold putter stopping him from progressing any higher than 30th place overall.

Of course, Vilamoura and a cold putter don’t get on well and there’s a leap of faith that he can hole more than his fair share of putts this week, however there’s plenty of evidence that this streaky putter can suddenly start seeing the ball hit the bottom of the cup. 2nd for SG Putting at the aforementioned Scandinavian event is one such example; 3rd on the same count at last year’s Spanish Open is another, and a field-leading display in Abu Dhabi at the start of last year is a third. Fact is, the Glaswegian can and does find explosive form on the greens every now and then, and if that combines with a strong ball-striking week then he can seriously contend.

Warren’s last 3 attempts at taming the Dom Pedro haven’t been the most convincing, however he led to halfway here in 2016 before eventually finishing 12th, then finished runner-up to an excellent Lucas Bjerregaard the following year to suggest that he gets on just fine with this layout. RESULT: T66

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 14:55BST 24.10.22 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.