The final leg of the early-season Middle East part of the International Swing takes us back to Doha for the Qatar Masters, an event and venue that we’ve seen on Tour regularly since the turn of the century with only the 2020 and 2021 renewals being hosted elsewhere.
Many of the players who competed in Bahrain last week have stuck around for this week, with the notable exceptions of the LIV players who return back for the start of their Tour this week.
Talking of LIV, one high-profile player not heading back to that circuit is Patrick Reed, and he heads the betting this week having come within a play-off of making it back-to-back victories in the Middle East over the past fortnight. Jayden Shaper and Daniel Hillier follow in the market ahead of the disappointing Angel Ayora in what’s almost a cut-and-paste of last week’s betting.
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Doha GC. Designer: Harradine, 1996; Course Type: Desert; Par: 72; Length: 7,508 yards; Water Hazards: 6; Fairways: Bermuda; Rough: Bermuda; Greens: Paspalum, 11’6″ on the stimp.
Course Overview. This week we return to the Harradine-designed Doha Golf Club which had hosted this event since its inauguration in 1998, until the event moved to Education City in 2020 for 2 renewals before returning in 2022, giving us plenty of course history stats to review.
At 7,508 yards in length, the course has historically favoured longer hitters when conditions are tranquil; wayward drives aren’t punished as severely as other courses on the circuit with relatively thin rough, allowing the bombers to attack more freely. However the exposed layout is particularly susceptible to wind and even the most tranquil of forecasts in the region can still result in a fair breeze blowing over the track at times, which brings the more controlled ball-strikers into the mix.
The par-72 layout is a conventional pair of 9s with the outward 9 measuring 198 yards longer than the inward 9. The par-5s play amongst the easiest of the holes as you might expect with even the 639-yard 9th playing under par generally, however the driveable par-4 16th is also a birdie and eagle opportunity for most of the field.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Qatar Masters that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2025: Haotong Li, 50/1; 2024: Rikuyu Hoshino, 45/1; 2023: Sami Valimaki, 80/1; 2022: Ewen Ferguson, 150/1; 2021: Antoine Rozner, 22/1; 2020: Jorge Campillo, 125/1; 2019: Justin Harding, 55/1; 2018: Eddie Pepperell, 70/1; 2017: Jeunghun Wang, 33/1; 2016: Branden Grace, 8/1; 2015: Branden Grace, 25/1; 2014: Sergio Garcia, 8/1; 2013: Chris Wood, 100/1; 2012: Paul Lawrie, 50/1; 2011: Thomas Bjorn, 200/1; 2010: Robert Karlsson, 66/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the Doha region in Qatar is here.
Clear skies and temperatures in the low-70s Fahrenheit will greet the players this week. Thursday looks set to be the breeziest of the four days with 10-15mph, gusting to 20mph, before the wind drops away as we head towards the weekend, although it may just pick up a little once again for the final round.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the past 14 winners here at Doha gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2025: Haotong Li. 316 yards (6th), 41.1% fairways (53rd), 75% greens in regulation (18th), 72.2% scrambling (4th), 1.72 putts per GIR (4th).
2024: Rikuyu Hoshino. 299 yards (33rd), 53.6% fairways (33rd), 73.6% greens in regulation (16th), 73.7% scrambling (5th), 1.70 putts per GIR (6th).
2023: Sami Valimaki. 318 yards (7th), 55.4% fairways (38th), 86.1% greens in regulation (3rd), 80.0% scrambling (6th), 1.74 putts per GIR (22nd).
2022: Ewen Ferguson. 297 yards (46th), 57.1% fairways (21st), 72.2% greens in regulation (14th), 65.0% scrambling (18th), 1.75 putts per GIR (10th).
2019: Justin Harding. 300 yards (31st), 53.6% fairways (20th), 69.4% greens in regulation (50th), 72.7% scrambling (13th), 1.72 putts per GIR (10th).
2018: Eddie Pepperell. 268 yards (77th), 67.9% fairways (3rd), 80.6% greens in regulation (16th), 71.4% scrambling (9th), 1.66 putts per GIR (9th).
2017: Jeunghun Wang. 292 yards (37th), 50% fairways (40th), 77.8% greens in regulation (26th), 68.8% scrambling (7th), 1.71 putts per GIR (15th).
2016: Branden Grace. 306 yards (6th), 46.4% fairways (44th), 76.4% greens in regulation (19th), 76.5% scrambling (3rd), 1.71 putts per GIR (4th).
2015: Branden Grace. 296 yards (9th), 48.2% fairways (61st), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 66.7% scrambling (23rd), 1.63 putts per GIR (2nd).
2014: Sergio Garcia. 300 yards (5th), 51.8% fairways (54th), 75.0% greens in regulation (32nd), 72.2% scrambling (12th), 1.72 putts per GIR (18th).
2013: Chris Wood. 297 yards (13th), 62.5% fairways (17th), 81.9% greens in regulation (6th), 53.8% scrambling (58th), 1.65 putts per GIR (3rd).
2012: Paul Lawrie. 300 yards (9th), 54.8% fairways (23rd), 79.6% greens in regulation (7th), 72.7% scrambling (6th), 1.63 putts per GIR (3rd).
2011: Thomas Bjorn. 288 yards (34th), 42.9% fairways (56th), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 68.8% scrambling (9th), 1.69 putts per GIR (5th).
2010: Robert Karlsson. 296 yards (15th), 57.1% fairways (49th), 77.8% greens in regulation (4th), 68.8% scrambling (11th), 1.63 putts per GIR (4th).
With the exception of Chris Wood in 2013, scrambling ranks are generally high here at Doha and that makes sense in an event where keeping one’s card as clean as possible is of paramount importance given that birdies aren’t that easy to come by.
The par 3s are the toughest element of the course in my opinion, so picking players with a strong mid-iron game is a positive. This venue is particularly susceptible to the wind, so siding with strong ball-strikers or those with a proven wind/coastal pedigree if the forecast suggests anything other than a flat calm week isn’t a bad move either.
Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, the 5 winners since 2019 all performed fairly average from off the tee, bolstered by stronger approach, tee-to-green and putting stats:
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
Incoming Form: It’s worth noting that all Qatar Masters winners featured in the analysis below had recorded at least one top-13 finish in their previous 7 starts, and if you isolate the events here at Doha specifically, that can be refined to a top 10 or better.
Last year’s winner Haotong Li follows that trend with a 7th place finish 6 starts before winning here, plus he’d sat in 5th to halfway at Ras Al Khaimah a fortnight before:
2013: Chris Wood: 36/12/1/26/WD/43/MC/15/7/10/26/70
2012: Paul Lawrie: 59/35/16/45/59/11/49/MC/46/2/10/8
2011: Thomas Bjorn: 15/MC/MC/11/17/38/5/MC/WD/52/MC/44
2010: Robert Karlsson: 53/71/32/16/MC/MC/33/MC/MC/2/9/60
Event Form. For the events held here at Doha, event history was mixed and certainly not a prerequisite. Last year’s winner Haotong Li hadn’t made a cut in the Qatar Masters at either venue before finishing 16th the year before his victory:
2012: Paul Lawrie: 48/1/27/34/36/69/MC/11/25/46/MC/19/
2011: Thomas Bjorn: MC/MC/23/9/33/60/8
2010: Robert Karlsson: 40/2/MC/25/5/15/22/60/37
A cursory look through the list of winners here screams coastal and links golf, which makes a level of sense given the often windswept nature of the course here at Doha. With a breeze forecast for two of the tournament days, that’s probably no bad place to start here this week.
For me, some positive Middle East form is one element to look at, as is a smattering of recent form without the need for anything too spectacular. Paspalum-positive players should also shine on these greens and those players who perform well on par 3s – the toughest part of this track as I’ve mentioned above – should excel.
My Final Qatar Masters Tips Are As Follows:
Grant Forrest 2pts EW 40/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Betfred
A carbon-copy of the top end of last week’s market greets us this week, however I’m dipping a little deeper in the betting this week after pinning much of my hopes last week on Angel Ayora’s misfiring putter.
Patrick Reed makes his Qatar Masters debut this week after having chances to win successive tournaments to celebrate his move away from LIV, however how much he’s got left in the tank remains to be seen. Jayden Schaper’s recent efforts may also be catching up with him after a closing 76 in Bahrain, whereas Daniel Hillier continues to produce strong performances without converting. For me though, the winner may come from the next section in the betting and to that end Grant Forrest makes most appeal.
Doha has always been a desert course where a dotted form line can by drawn to the links and links-style tests that feature on the European circuit, and last year’s Nexo Championship winner looks to be rounding into some form ahead of this week’s wholly compatible test.
The Scot scored for us in that event last summer at Trump International in Aberdeen, having previously won down the coast at Fairmont St Andrews in 2021 when he secured his maiden victory. Doha hasn’t been such a positive venue as the east coast of Scotland for the 32 year-old, despite having made 3 of 4 cuts here over the years, however he arrives this week with his best incoming form ahead of this event and I suspect we’ll see a huge personal best here this week.
2026 has been largely positive for the North Berwick resident, having sat 9th to halfway at the Dubai Invitational and 12th after day 1 at the Emirates a week later. He was competitive right up until the latter stages of Sunday last week in Bahrain, with only a closing double-bogey taking the gloss off of a 7th place finish – a birdie would have been enough to make the play-off.
Forrest led the field for Par-3 Scoring last week at Royal Golf Club and that bodes well ahead of a Doha test where the short holes can make or break a player’s week. 5th for SG Off the Tee and 9th for SG Tee to Green were strong long game metrics, whilst 2nd for GIR suggests that his irons are in great shape overall, notwithstanding the odd mistake.
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Jorge Campillo 2pts EW 40/1 (6EW, 1/5) with BetMGM
At a similar position in the market, I’m also backing Jorge Campillo who won this title at Education City back in 2020.
Having produced progressive results here at Doha of 20th, 13th and 2nd before the event moved to its temporary home for the 2020 and 2021 renewals, the change in venue was clearly no issue for the Spaniard as he secured what was his second title at DP World Tour level at the time, having won the Trophee Hassan II the year before. A further win has since followed at the 2023 Magical Kenya Open and, in the context of this week’s field, being a 3-time Tour winner puts the 39 year-old towards to the very top of the pile in terms of victories.
Jorge almost made it four titles later that same year, once again rubber-stamping his liking for golf in Qatar by leading after 54 holes and eventually losing out in a play-off to Sami Valimaki here at Doha. 5th here the following February before he jetted off to the USA to make use of the PGA Tour card that he’d earned further reinforces the assertion that an in-form Campillo is a force to be reckoned with in this part of the world.
A pair of 23rd place finishes to complete 2025 at the Nedbank and also at the Alfred Dunhill Championship were solid if unspectacular, and he’s picked up where he left off in 2026 with finishes of 19th and 16th over the past fortnight. In both instances a lacklustre final day has prevented Jorge from recording a much more eye-catching finish, however perhaps that changes this week as he returns to more prolific surroundings.
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Nathan Kimsey 1pt EW 85/1 (6EW, 1/5) with SpreadEx
A little further down the market, one player who caught my eye is Nathan Kimsey.
9th last week in Bahrain continued a progressive form line of 32nd at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and 25th at the Mauritius Open in December, and that most recent effort was all the more impressive as the Englishman was staring a missed cut in the face after an opening round of 72 at Royal Golf Club.
Rounds of 65, 69, 69 from Friday onwards for 203 strokes was tied 3rd for final 54-hole scoring alongside the aforementioned Grant Forrest and behind the likes of Patrick Reed and Sergio Garcia, and that’s got to give him confidence as looks to build on a positive start to his 2026 campaign.
Twice a winner on the Challenge Tour including the 2022 Grand Final, the 32 year-old had a huge chance to sew up a PGA Tour card the following year when he made it to a play-off at the co-sanctioned Barbasol Championship, eventually losing to Vincent Norrman on the first extra hole. It wasn’t to be that week, however 3rd later that year at the Spanish Open showed further promise and he arrives this week with momentum having just recorded his first top-10 finish since that event in Spain back in October 2023.
Talking of top 10s, Kimsey’s first on the European Tour came here at Doha back in 2017 during a period of otherwise poor form as he adjusted to this level with that effort flanked by five missed cuts. 9 years on and the Boston man will have a second look at the track this week with his game in good shape, having produced positive Strokes Gained numbers in every category last time out.
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Chris Wood 1pt EW 400/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
Finally, although it might seem a little far-fetched to suggest that 2013 Qatar Masters champion Chris Wood can repeat the feat 13 years on from that breakthrough victory, given the price on offer I’m happy to play to see if he snag us some each-way returns.
That victory here at Doha was the first of three titles at European Tour level, the most recent and most prestigious of which was the BMW PGA Championship in 2016. Physical and mental health battles have followed, resulting in a loss of form and playing privileges, however at the age of 38 the Bristolian has seemingly resurrected his career when retirement from the game was a serious option, by winning twice in the space of the past two months on the MENA circuit.
Now wins at the Rolear Algarve Classic in December and in Egypt a little over a week ago need to be taken in context as the Middle East Tour is a fair few rungs down the ladder, however success breeds confidence and perhaps Chris can take advantage of the rarest of starts at DP World Tour level due to his past tournament winner status and produce a prominent performance. It would undoubtedly be a fairytale should he go on to seriously contend, however that’s what sport is all about and I for one sincerely hope to see the giant Englishman in the mix.
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