RBC Canadian Open Tips 2022

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The week before the U.S. Open is always a fascinating scenario on the PGA Tour and in 2022 we see the long awaited return of the RBC Canadian Open, played in Toronto at St George’s Golf & Country Club. This week the field includes Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton and Shane Lowry.

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Course Guide: Pre-Covid pandemic we got used to the RBC Canadian Open being played at Glen Abbey, but with a course rota system now in play, the long awaited 2022 renewal sees Golf Canada take their national title to Islington in west Toronto to play the classical and short Par 70 at St George’s Golf & Country Club. This will be the sixth time that the course has hosted the Canadian Open, with Carl Pettersson (2010) winning here in the only renewal played in the recent past. At just around 7,000 yards in length, you won’t find too many shorter courses on the PGA Tour this season, but some severely tiered and contoured green complexes could potentially offer up some defence.

St George’s Golf & Country Club, Toronto, Ontario: Designer: Stanley Thompson, 1929, with Doak & Andrew 2014 + 2019 renovations; Course Type: Classical, Mid-Score; Par: 70; Length: 7,014 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-play: 3; Fairways: Bentgrass with Poa Annua; Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass with ryegrass 3.5″; Greens: 4,000 sq.ft average featuring Luminary Creeping Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 12ft; Course Scoring Average 2010: 70.10 (+0.10).

Course Overview: As we get used to these days on the PGA Tour, St George’s G&CC has received some renovation work since the last time we saw it in 2010. Tom Doak and Ian Andrew have managed the worked with tree removal, fairway widening and the greens being re-built and re-laid in 2014, allied to bunkering work as recently as 2019. Green surfaces have been enlarged, but the most striking aspect for us punters to understand is that the Bentgrass Poa Annua mix greens which saw Carl Pettersson win here in 2010, are now pure Luminary Creeping Bentgrass putting surfaces.

The course, as you would expect in the lavish Islington suburb of Toronto, is a parkland, tree-lined affair and is classical in nature. Space is at a premium, so the course only measures 7,014 yards to its tips. It’s also a hybrid specimen, a Par 70 which features 5 par-3s and 3 par-5s. A 34/36 set-up. Let’s start with the par-3s which are pretty unique as in they are very stringent – indeed 4 of them, namely the 3rd, 8th, 13th, and 16^th, are between 200 and 215 yards long.

The 10 par-4s are intriguing too. 370-odd yard openers on both sides of the course will be taken apart, and there is also another sub-400 yard par-4 at the 12th. The other par-4s though all measure between 450 and 486 yards, which are lengthy enough.

On to the par-5s which at 538 yards (9th), 528 yards (11th) and 560 yards (15th) are pretty gettable. Carl Pettersson shot -10 across his 12 looks at the par-5s on his way to victory here 12 years ago, a feat matched by both Charley Hoffman and Webb Simpson. The North Carolina-based Swede won at -14/266, shooting a -10/60 on Saturday to jump 66 spots on the leaderboard. -8/62s were also available across Thursday and Friday, so I’m not expecting tough, technical scoring this week, unless weather conditions dictate.

And it’s not as if Golf Canada are averse to low scores winning their national Open title. Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson and Jhonattan Vegas have won this title at -22, -23 and -21 respectively over the last 3 renewals across Hamilton G&CC (McIlroy) and Glen Abbey (Johnson and Vegas).

RBC Canadian Open Winners: 2019: Rory McIlroy (-22); 2018: Dustin Johnson (-23); 2017: Jhonattan Vegas (-21); 2016: Jhonattan Vegas (-12); 2015: Jason Day (-17); 2014: Tim Clark (-17); 2013: Brandt Snedeker (-16); 2012: Scott Piercy (-17); 2011: Sean O’Hair (-4); 2010: Carl Pettersson (-14).

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Justin Thomas, Cameron Smith, Shane Lowry, Scottie Scheffler Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns, Adam Hadwin, Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Rose and Tony Finau.

RBC Canadian Open Winners & Prices: 2019: McIlroy 10/1; 2018: Johnson 7/1F; 2017: Vegas 125/1; 2016: Vegas 125/1; 2015: Day 9/1F; 2014: Clark 66/1; 2013: Snedeker 14/1; 2012: Piercy 50/1; 2011: Sean O’Hair 100/1; 2010: Pettersson 80/1. Past 6 Renewals Average: 57/1; Overall Average: 59/1.

Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Toronto, Ontario, is here.

Expect a soft golf course with 30mm of rain falling pre-tournament week and rain highly likely on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday evening. Precipitation during the tournament can’t be ruled out either on Thursday and Saturday. Temperatures will be 18-21 degrees Celsius across the 4 days. Light north-easterly breeze up to circa 15 mph will be a feature on Friday and Sunday only, so the green light for scoring will be on.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the RBC Heritage which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events. Players’ rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Rory McIlroy; 2) Patrick Rodgers; 3) Tony Finau; 4) Matt Fitzpatrick / Tommy Gainey; 6) Chris Kirk; 7) Cameron Champ / Corey Conners; 9) Sam Burns; 10) Austin Smotherman; 11) Paul Barjon; 12) Justin Thomas; 13) Doug Ghim / Mark Hensby; 15) Hayden Buckley / Brandon Wu; 17) Trey Mullinax; 18) Rasmus Hojgaard / Scottie Scheffler; 20) Emiliano Grillo; 21) Jonas Blixt / Sebastian Munoz / Curtis Thompson; 24) Greg Chalmers / Scott Gutschewski / Brandon Hagy / Scott Piercy.
• Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Rory McIlroy / Scottie Scheffler; 3) Robert Garrigus / Cameron Smith; 5) C.T. Pan; 6) Harold Varner III; 7) Matt Wallace; 8) Sebastian Munoz; 9) Shane Lowry; 10) Nick Taylor; 11) Sang-moon Bae / Sam Burns / J.J. Spaun; 14) Austin Cook / Justin Rose; 16) David Lipsky / Vaughn Taylor; 18) Alex Smalley / Justin Thomas; 20) Tyler Duncan / Matt Fitzpatrick 22) Tony Finau / Tyrrell Hatton; 24) Wesley Bryan / Stephan Jaeger / J.T. Poston.
• Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Rory Sabbatini; 2) Tony Finau; 3) Jonathan Byrd; 4) David Skinns; 5) Adam Hadwin; 6) Wesley Bryan / John Huh; 8) Justin Thomas; 9) Michael Gligic / Chris Kirk; 11) Vince Whaley / Danny Willett; 13) Luke Donald / Tyrrell Hatton; 15) Ryan Armour / Brice Garnett; 17) Matt Fitzpatrick; 18) Peter Malnati / Andrew Novak / Harold Varner III; 21) Stephan Jaeger / David Lingmerth / Justin Rose; 24) Bill Haas; 25) Henrik Norlander.
• Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Rory McIlroy; 2) Tony Finau / Harold Varner III; 4) Cameron Smith; 5) Matt Fitzpatrick / Scottie Scheffler; 7) Shane Lowry; 8) Chris Kirk; 9) Justin Thomas; 10) Corey Conners; 11) Sam Burns; 12) Tyrrell Hatton / Scott Piercy; 14) Ryan Armour / C.T. Pan; 16) Adam Long / Sebastian Munoz; 18) Justin Rose; 19) Peter Malnati; 20) Patrick Rodgers / J.J. Spaun; 22) Doug Ghim / David Lipsky; 24) Rasmus Hojgaard; 25) Emiliano Grillo / Scott Gutschewski / Stephan Jaeger / Alex Smalley.
• Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Scott Brown; 2) D.A. Points; 3) Robert Garrigus; 4) Tyrrell Hatton; 5) Ben Kohles; 6) Sam Burns / Shane Lowry / Callum Tarren; 9) Matthias Schwab / Justin Thomas; 11) Bill Haas / Johnson Wagner; 13) Patrick Rodgers; 14) Brendon Todd; 15) J.T. Poston; 16) Martin Trainer; 17) Jonathan Byrd; 18) Brett Drewitt; 19) Greg Chalmers / Hank Lebioda / David Lipsky / Sebastian Munoz; 23) Keith Mitchell; 24) Justin Lower; 25) Rory McIlroy / Justin Rose.
• Top 25 SG Total: 1) Rory McIlroy; 2) Tony Finau / Shane Lowry; 4) Tyrrell Hatton; 5) Harold Varner III; 6) Cameron Smith; 7) Sam Burns / Justin Thomas; 9) Scottie Scheffler; 10) Sebastian Munoz; 11) Matt Fitzpatrick; 12) Corey Conners; 13) Rory Sabbatini / Patrick Rodgers; 15) Adam Long / C.T. Pan; 17) David Lipsky / J.T. Poston; 19) Robert Garrigus / Chris Kirk; 21) Justin Rose; 22) Brendon Todd; 23) Peter Malnati; 24) Scott Piercy; 25) Aaron Rai.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winner here at St Georges G&CC in 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this classical test:

• 2010, Carl Pettersson (-14). 285 yards (57th), 73.1% fairways (9th), 68.1% greens in regulation (46th), 30’11” proximity to hole (26th), 60.9 % scrambling (21st), 1.63 putts per GIR (4th).

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:

• 2010, Carl Pettersson (-14). SG Off the Tee: 36th, SG Approach: 20th, SG Around the Green: 33rd, SG Tee to Green: 14th, SG Putting: 3rd.

Let’s take a view from players as to how St Georges G&CC set up in 2010 and what skill sets the course favours:

Carl Pettersson (2010): “And then yesterday I drove the ball better, didn’t hit my irons great, but managed to scrape the round, shot 2-under, because it’s not that easy, if you don’t drive it well around here, it’s not very easy.

But what makes the scoring low, I think, is the par-5s; they’re all reachable, except for 15. The very long hitters can reach it, but the other holes I made two eagles today, and I think if you can play the difficult holes well and then score on the easier holes, that’s what makes the scoring good.

It’s a good golf course. I’m kind of stunned I shot 60, to be honest with you. Just the par-5s, you know, they’re all reachable. That’s where you can make your scores. And I’m surprised how low the scoring is this week. Me and my caddy thought 10-under would win the tournament at the start of the week. The greens were fairly soft. That’s what it makes it a little easier, and if the greens were firmer, it would be a different ball game.”

Luke Donald (2010): “I didn’t feel like I putted as well as I could have this week. The greens were tricky. With a lot of slope on them, the putts uphill were pretty slow and the putts downhill didn’t quite break, so it was tough to hole putts this week. But again, yeah, I think I’m going to come up a little bit short, which is disappointing, but all in all a great solid week.”

Mike Weir (2010): “Yeah. I can’t think of any that have, that can be this severe, and I think they’re a great greens speed right now for the slope. Otherwise, you know, it’s tough to find pins out there right now, so if you have any bounce here, you can really lose some pin placements out there.

So yeah, I can’t think of any. I mean Westchester Country Club that we used to play had some pretty severe greens, but there’s probably a couple greens out there that are semi-flat, and there’s probably 15 of them that are very severe. So I guess overall consistency of very difficult greens, I can’t think of any outside of really Augusta that are this difficult.”

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the 2010 RBC Canadian Open winner here at St Georges:

• 2010 – Carl Pettersson: Round 1: 100th, Round 2: 68th, Round 3: 2nd.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the shots from the lead during the tournament of the 2010 RBC Canadian Open winner here at St Georges in 2010:

• 2010 – Carl Pettersson: Round 1: 9 back, Round 2: 9 back, Round 3: 4 back.

Form of RBC Canadian Open winners since 2010:

• Rory McIlroy: MC Memorial/8th PGA/8th Wells Fargo/21st Augusta.
• Dustin Johnson: MC Open/3rd US Open/1st St Jude/8th Memorial.
• Jhonattan Vegas: MC Open/MC National/MC Travelers/MC US Open.
• Jhonattan Vegas: 4th Barbasol/53rd Barracuda/44th Congressional/MC Memorial.
• Jason Day: 4th Open/9th US Open/MC Memorial/MC TPC Sawgrass.
• Tim Clark: 5th JDC/MC Greenbrier/MC Travelers/19th St Jude.
• Brandt Snedeker: 11th Open/8th AT&T National/17th US Open/MC St Jude.
• Scott Piercy: 3rd JDC/12th Greenbrier/ MC US Open/MC Memorial.
• Sean O’Hair: MC Open/MC AT&T National/63rd Travelers/MC Memorial.
• Carl Pettersson: MC JDC/6th AT&T National/34th Travelers/28th Memorial.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score at RBC Canadian Open since 2015. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

• 2019 – Bradley – AM -7/63 – 60/1.
• 2018 – Garrigus – AM -9/63 – 200/1.
• 2017 – Chappell/Every/Hagy/Schniederjans/Swafford – 1AM/4PM  -7/65 – 50/1 250/1 125/1 80/1 100/1.
• 2016 – D Johnson/List – AM/PM Split -6/66.
• 2015 – Grillo – AM -8/64.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 8 – Rory McIlroy.
• 7 – Justin Rose.
• 5 – Justin Thomas.
• 3 – Ryan Moore.
• 2 – Jason Dufner, Chris Kirk, Martin Laird, Patrick Reed, Jhonattan Vegas.
• 1 – Sang-moon Bae, Jonas Blixt, Sam Burns, Jonathan Byrd, Cameron Champ, Luke Donald, Tony Finau, Dylan Frittelli, Bill Haas, Jim Herman, Charley Hoffman, Danny Lee, David Lingmerth, Ben Martin, Sean O’Hair, Rory Sabbatini, Scottie Scheffler, Brandt Snedeker, Brendon Todd, Camilo Villegas, Nick Watney, Danny Willett.

First off, we must remember that this week can be a nightmare for tipsters, punters and layers alike with U.S. Open Sectional Qualifying taking place on Monday around 9 locations in Canada and the United States. Naturally players having to expend their efforts in the US-based qualifiers will not be arriving in Toronto, Ontario until late Monday evening at the earliest. And expect WDs in the direct build-up to the tournament through Monday and into Tuesday.

Traditionally, the mix of winners across the tournament before the U.S. Open is a little confusing. Up until recently, this week always saw the annual trip to TPC Southwind in Memphis for the FedEx St Jude Classic. Memphis produced 4 maiden PGA Tour victors in the last 9 renewals post-2010. That could be something worth bearing in mind. One of those was Daniel Berger who won at TPC Southwind at 33/1 (2016) and 28/1 when defending his first ever PGA our title (2017). For both of his wins the Floridian was ranked within the OWGR top 50.

Indeed high-class winners who had already qualified for the U.S. Open have won the week before in 2008, 2010 (12/1), 2012 (20/1), 2016 (33/1), 2017 (28/1), 2018 (7/1F) and 2019 (10/1) – namely Justin Leonard, Lee Westwood, Daniel Berger (twice), Dustin Johnson (twice) and Rory McIlroy. They undoubtedly took the opportunity to land a PGA Tour title with no hesitation, as did Garrick Higgo last year who won at the one-off Palmetto Championship at 50/1. He entered the week in red-hot form on the European Tour (as was) and at 54th in the OWGR, before grabbing a PGA Tour win as a non-member.

So that’s an elite (I have extended to the OWGR top 55 when victorious) winner the week before the U.S. Open percentage of 62% across the last 13 renewals, when the U.S. Open has been played in June. Food for thought, when linked to the Tour maidens angle as well.

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 17:45BST 6.6.22 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.