With the Open Championship only 2 weeks away, my 2021 Open Tips Research Preview is available for you to read.
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Course Guide: Detroit Golf Club is 10 miles north-west of central Detroit. An historic club, established in 1899, we are dealing with a hybrid of 2 courses this week, namely the North (17 holes) and South (3rd hole) course. Both are Donald Ross original courses, which feature his classic architecture, with this week’s championship holes having seen phased modernisation and construction preparation since 2014.
It’s a Par 72 test at 7,370 yards, which features the standard breakdown of 4 par-3s, 10-par-4s and 4 par-5s. An old-style, tree-lined course, the course received positive reviews since it made its PGA Tour debut in 2019. As per Donald Ross design classics, Detroit features uneven fairway lies and plenty of front-to-back contoured and multi-layered undulations within green complexes. Scoring-wise, its lack of length and receptive greens leads to very low scoring.
Detroit Golf Club, Detroit, Michigan: Designer: Donald Ross 1916; Course Type: Classical, Resort; Par: 72; Length: 7,370 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 1; Fairways: Bentgrass with Poa Annua; Rough: Bluegrass mix 4″; Greens: 5,150 sq.ft average featuring Poa Annua with Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 10.5ft. 2019: 70.11 (-1.89), Difficulty Rank 42 of 49 courses. 2020: 70.05 (-1.95), Difficulty Rank 38 of 41 courses.
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Detroit Golf Club, and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:
- Detroit Golf Club: 250 yards from tee: 34 yards wide; 275:34; 300:35 325:34; 350:33.
- TPC River Highlands: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:36; 300:29; 325:29; 350:28.
- Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
- Colonial: 250 yards from tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:27; 325:26; 350:23.
- Ocean Course – Kiawah Island: Up to 50 yards wide.
- Quail Hollow: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:32; 300:31; 325:30; 350:29.
- Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
- Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:26; 300:22; 325:26; 350:22.
- Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:29; 325:27; 350:26.
- PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
- TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
- Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
- Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Donald Ross designs include:
- Pinehurst Number 2 – 2014 U.S. Open
- East Course at Oak Hill – 2013 PGA Championship
- Sedgefield CC – Wyndham Championship
- Plainfield – 2011 & 2015 Barclays
- Aronimink GC – 2010 & 2011 AT&T National + 2018 BMW Championship
- East Lake GC – Tour Championship
Course Overview: Detroit Golf Club is a Donald Ross 1916 original which has received some modernisation work of late. 5 new tees were built in 2018 to add length to the course, but even so a 7,370 yard Par 72 is short from a PGA Tour perspective.
This week we’re dealing with a classical, tree-lined course, with water only featuring on the par-4 14th hole. Greens feature the Donald Ross trademark back-to-front pitch surrounded by tightly mown run-offs into collection areas. The green complexes are constantly watered to make the course player-friendly, but player comments all note how contoured the green complexes are here.
Downhill putts are difficult to attack so distance control to position approach shots below the pin proves to be critical here. There’s lots of movement and contours on green complexes, which feature 80% Poa Annua and 20% Bentgrass within them, so similar to TPC River Highlands last week.
The layout itself features par-5s which are 635 yards (4th), 552 yards (7th), 555 yards (14th) and 577 yards (17th), which means 3 of are reachable to the more powerful drivers. But it’s the par-4s which are vulnerable with 5 of them measuring in at sub-450 yards. Indeed the 1st (397 yards), 4th (393 yards), 8th (372 yards) and 13th (393 yards) are all sub-400 yards. And with no wind, warm temperatures and lush receptive greens accepting darts, greens are also super easy to hit, with 15 (2019) and 16 (2020) players hitting 80% Greens in Regulation or more. Scrambling here is also very easy, so all-in-all the course, without tough weather, is there for the taking.
Other points to note are usage of original Ross drainage swales, which cause penalty strokes for those who are flagrant off the tee. Indeed on the 18th, the swale runs down the entire left side of the fairway before crossing the fairway and routing to the right of the green complex. Holes 14-15-16 represent Area 313 on the golf course, with the ultimate aim of an eagle on the 14th, ace on the 15th and birdie on the 16th all adding up to the Detroit dialling code.
Winners: 2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-23); 2019: Nate Lashley (-25).
Lead Score Progression:
- 2020: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -19; Round 4 -23.
- 2019: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -23; Round 4 -25.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here.
You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Bryson DeChambeau, Webb Simpson, Emiliano Grillo, Patrick Reed, Brice Garnett, Hank Lebioda, Charles Howell III, Chris Kirk, Andrew Putnam and Cameron Tringale.
Recent Player Skill Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to Wells Fargo Championship / Canary Islands Championship, which includes PGA Tour and European Tour events. Rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
- Driving Accuracy: 1) Brendon Todd; 2) Chez Reavie; 3) Ryan Armour; 4) Brian Stuard; 5) Kyle Stanley; 6) J.J. Spaun; 7) K.J. Choi; 8) Andrew Landry; 9) Sungjae Im; 10) Kramer Hickok; 11) David Hearn; 12) Satoshi Kodaira; 13) Tom Hoge / Adam Long; 15) Pat Perez; 16) Doug Ghim / Michael Thompson; 18) Brice Garnett / Ian Poulter; 20) Henrik Norlander; 21) Keegan Bradley / Bo Hoag; 23) Chase Seiffert; 24) Martin Laird / Hideki Matsuyama.
- Greens in Regulation: 1) Emiliano Grillo; 2) Hank Lebioda; 3) Kyle Stanley; 4) Garrick Higgo; 5) Bryson DeChambeau; 6) Doug Ghim / Russell Knox / Hideki Matsuyama; 9) Beau Hossler / Charles Howell III / Martin Laird / Gary Woodland; 13) Joseph Bramlett; 14) Joel Dahmen / Pat Perez / Camilo Villegas; 17) Danny Lee / Joaquin Niemann / Will Zalatoris; 20) Cameron Davis / Kramer Hickok / Robert Streb; 23) Henrik Norlander; 24) D.J. Trahan; 25) Brice Garnett / Bo Hoag / Cameron Tringale.
- Scrambling: 1) Rhein Gibson; 2) Rob Oppenheim; 3) Kevin Kisner; 4) Will Zalatoris; 5) Keegan Bradley; 6) Byeong Hun An; 7) John Pak; 8) Bryson DeChambeau; 9) Hank Lebioda / Patrick Reed; 11) Russell Knox / Webb Simpson; 13) James Hahn / Brian Stuard; 15) Jason Day / K.H. Lee / Sean O’Hair / Danny Willett / Gary Woodland; 20) Pat Perez / Robert Streb; 22) Jason Kokrak / Doc Redman / Brendon Todd; 25) Alex Noren.
- Putting Average (Putts per GIR): 1) Satoshi Kodaira; 2) Harrison Frazar; 3) Jason Kokrak; 4) Andrew Landry; 5) Brandon Hagy / Phil Mickelson; 7) Ian Poulter / Seamus Power; 9) Danny Willett; 10) Rafael Campos / Emiliano Grillo / Hunter Mahan; 13) Webb Simpson; 14) Vincent Whaley; 15) Lucas Glover / Patton Kizzire; 17) Aaron Baddeley / Michael Gellerman; 19) Mark Anderson / Ryan Armour; 21) Rickie Fowler; 22) K.J. Choi / Joaquin Niemann / Brandt Snedeker / Cameron Tringale.
Recent Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Wells Fargo Championship / Canary Islands Championship, which includes PGA Tour and European Tour events. Players rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
- Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Bryson DeChambeau; 2) Charles Howell III; 3) Bubba Watson; 4) Tom Lewis; 5) Joseph Bramlett / Hideki Matsuyama; 7) Will Zalatoris; 8) Maverick McNealy / Joaquin Niemann; 10) Alex Noren; 11) Garrick Higgo / Kyle Stanley; 13) Keegan Bradley / Scott Harrington / Scott Piercy; 16) Jason Day; 17) Si Woo Kim; 18) Tyler McCumber / J.J. Spaun; 20) Rafael Campos; 21) Byeong Hun An / Cameron Champ / Adam Schenk; 24) Matt Jones / Gary Woodland.
- Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Kyle Stanley; 2) Emiliano Grillo; 3) Hideki Matsuyama; 4) Aaron Baddeley; 5) Seamus Power; 6) Joel Dahmen; 7) Scott Piercy / Gary Woodland; 9) Keegan Bradley; 10) Russell Knox / Doc Redman / Patrick Reed; 13) Andrew Putnam; 14) Cameron Percy; 15) Matthew NeSmith; 16) Kevin Chappell / Garrick Higgo / Will Zalatoris; 19) Joaquin Niemann; 20) Danny Lee / Henrik Norlander / Bo Van Pelt; 23) Martin Laird / Hank Lebioda; 25) Sean O’Hair.
- Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Kyle Stanley; 2) Seamus Power; 3) Hideki Matsuyama; 4) Patrick Reed; 5) Joel Dahmen; 6) Hank Lebioda / Will Zalatoris; 8) Scott Piercy / Gary Woodland; 10) Bryson DeChambeau; 11) Danny Willett; 12) Jason Day; 13) Keegan Bradley; 14) Joseph Bramlett / Emiliano Grillo; 16) Pat Perez; 17) Joaquin Niemann; 18) Ryan Armour; 19) Alex Noren; 20) Kevin Chappell; 21) Harold Varner III; 22) Si Woo Kim / Camilo Villegas; 24) Kramer Hickok / Garrick Higgo / Martin Laird / Chez Reavie / Vincent Whaley.
- Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Satoshi Kodaira; 2) Rhein Gibson; 3) Jason Kokrak; 4) Kevin Kisner; 5) Cameron Davis; 6) Troy Merritt; 7) Adam Long / Hunter Mahan / John Pak; 10) Doc Redman; 11) Garrick Higgo; 12) Adam Hadwin / Andrew Landry; 14) Ian Poulter; 15) Robert Streb; 16) Jonas Blixt / Rob Oppenheim / Sepp Straka; 19) Harrison Frazar / Patton Kizzire / Hank Lebioda / Alex Noren; 23) Denny McCarthy; 24) Brian Gay / Patrick Reed / Brendon Todd.
- Top 25 SG Total: 1) Satoshi Kodaira; 2) Patrick Reed; 3) Hank Lebioda; 4) Bryson DeChambeau; 5) Kyle Stanley; 6) Gary Woodland; 7) Ian Poulter; 8) Alex Noren; 9) Danny Willett; 10) Emiliano Grillo / Joaquin Niemann; 12) Garrick Higgo; 13) Ryan Armour / Jason Day / Rhein Gibson; 16) Kramer Hickok / Pat Perez; 18) Hideki Matsuyama; 19) Doc Redman; 20) Keegan Bradley / Troy Merritt; 22) Vincent Whaley; 23) Scott Piercy / Will Zalatoris; 25) Joseph Bramlett / Joel Dahmen / Brice Garnett.
Winners & Prices: 2020: DeChambeau 7/1; 2019: Lashley 250/1; Overall Average: 129/1.
Historical Weather:
- 2020: Thursday: Sunny. High of 91. Wind N 4-8 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 90. Wind N 4-8 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 89. Wind ENE 6-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 90. Wind SSE 5-10 mph.
- 2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 89. Wind S 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 90. Wind WNW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 86. Wind NW 7-14 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 85. Wind NNE 6-12 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Detroit, Michigan, is here.
PGA Tour officials aren’t scared of a birdie-fest here in Detroit, and this week’s weather forecast looks pretty ideal. 169mm of rain in the past should make the course soft and receptive and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday cannot be ruled out either. With no significant wind in the forecast, expect fireworks. The only discernable difference to previous years here will be lower temperatures, ranging from 22 to 26 degrees Celsius, where previously we have seen up to 33 degrees.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners here at the Rocket Mortgage Classic gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this:
- 2020, Bryson DeChambeau (-23). 351 yards (1st), 58.9% fairways (58th), 77.8% greens in regulation (13th), 37’6″ proximity to hole (69th), 68.8 % scrambling (29th), 1.63 putts per GIR (7th).
- 2019, Nate Lashley (-25). 300 yards (44th), 73.2% fairways (11th), 81.9% greens in regulation (4th), 30’10” proximity to hole (19th), 84.6% scrambling (3rd), 1.58 putts per GIR (2nd).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 23rd, Driving Accuracy: 35th, Greens in Regulation: 9th, Proximity to Hole: 44th, Scrambling: 16th, Putting Average 5th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
- 2020, Bryson DeChambeau (-23). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 51st, SG Around the Green: 26th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 1st.
- 2019, Nate Lashley (-25). SG Off the Tee: 29th, SG Approach: 6th, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 2nd.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
- SG Off the Tee: 15th, SG Approach: 29th, SG Around the Green: 20th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 2nd.
Let’s take a view from players as to how the course sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Bryson DeChambeau (2020): “ Well, the conditions are really nice, they’re beautiful. Greens are beautiful, fairways are perfect. It’s a golf course that I enjoy. I do really well on country club-style golf courses, so I’m looking forward to another great week. The greens have a lot of the slopes are from back to front. Layout seems like it’s fairly tight, a lot of rough. I think there’s a lot of bunkers that are around like 290, so hopefully I’ll be able to clear those and take those out of play. So, sorry, Mr. Ross, but, you know, it is what it is. And I like the style of golf courses, it just seems to fit me. They’re like country club style. I grew up on Belmont Country Club, which is very similar to that style of course, so I’m comfortable with it. I really enjoy those types of courses and I feel like I thrive on them, so this course is none the different.
I’m again trying to be the casino and give myself the best opportunity to win. Having 9-iron into those par 5s, it’s definitely nice to be able to attack par-5 flags rather than kind of move away from them. There’s a couple holes where I can get it up close to the green and just chip it on there and make a putt. I’ve just got to keep hitting my driver good and getting more comfortable with the driver and if that happens, it’s going to be a fun week.”
Nate Lashley (2019): “ Yeah, like you said, there is a lot of undulation. I got it under the hole on most holes and had a lot of uphill putts with not a lot of break, so I was able to knock those in. Yeah, there’s some putts out there. I made a really nice putt on 4 from the fringe, too. A putt I was just trying to get close and it happened to fall in. So yeah, putted really well today. Game feels good and hopefully can continue this through the week.
I don’t know that there’s a whole lot of tricky holes out there or really overly difficult holes. If you hit the fairways here, you can really score. I think that’s, you know, the name of the game. If you hit it in the fairway, you’re going to have a lot of birdie putts. But the greens, the greens do have quite a bit of slope, some of them around the holes that have a lot of undulation. If you get it on the right spot, though, and get it in the right tier, you can make a lot of birdies
It’s nice when you have one of these weeks at a course you can score on, and if you play well, you get rewarded. Some of the weeks the courses are so tough, people don’t really realize it. You could hit good shots all day and shoot over par. A lot of the weeks the courses are really difficult, so it’s a nice change coming here. You hit good shots and you can shoot a good score.”
Brandt Snedeker (2019): ” I seem to like Donald Ross courses. That’s the whole reason why I showed this week. When I saw the golf course we were playing I knew I wanted to be up here. So I did a great job of putting the ball in the fairway off the tee, and from there I could be aggressive. Had a lot of wedges in my hand, hit some great short irons and then obviously played to my strength. I’m a good putter, I love poa annua greens. We had perfect greens this morning. Made a lot of putts, which you’ve got to do around here. So I’m excited about hoping to build on that for tomorrow and kind of making sure I have the same M.O. tomorrow.”
Patrick Reed (2019): ” I think the biggest thing is it’s a shot-making golf course. You have to work the ball both ways, you can flight it, take it up in the air. There’s a bunch of different shots, especially when the wind blows, that you have to play. It’s not just see a number, hit a number. You have to use the contours of the greens, use the wind in a bunch of different areas. I love being creative and having to work the ball around. A place like this kind of suits me and I feel real comfortable over the ball. The golf course is pure, it’s in great shape, and it’s a birdie fest. You’ve got to go out and shoot low, got to go out and make birdies, especially this time of year, you know, after a U.S. Open, which normally par is a good score. And then on top of it you’re leading into another major, The Open coming up. And so you’re sitting there and to have a week like this where you can go out and make a bunch of birdies, if you’re hitting fairways, hitting wedges in there close, make a bunch of putts, you know, make a lot of birdies gives you confidence moving forward. I think it’s a great.”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the Rocket Mortgage winners:
- 2020 – Bryson DeChambeau: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 2nd.
- 2019 – Nate Lashley: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
Shots Off the Lead: Below are the shots from the lead during the tournament of the Rocket Mortgage Classic winners:
- 2020 – Bryson DeChambeau: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 3 back.
- 2019 – Nate Lashley: Round 1: 1 ahead, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 6 ahead.
Incoming Form of winners since 2010:
- Bryson DeChambeau: 6th River Highlands/8th Harbour/3rd Colonial/4th Bay Hill.
- Nate Lashley: 28th US Open/MC Hamilton/69th Colonial/29th Trinity Forest.
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.
- 2020 – Kisner/Redman/Stallings – 2AM/1PM – 7/65 – 80/1, 66/1, 80/1.
- 2019 – Lashley – AM -9/63 No Price
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Poa Annua and Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
- 6 – Bubba Watson.
- 5 – Phil Mickelson.
- 4 – Jason Day, Bryson DeChambeau, Brandt Snedeker.
- 3 – Patrick Reed, Jimmy Walker.
- 2 – Hunter Mahan, Scott Piercy, Nick Watney, Gary Woodland.
- 1 – Aaron Baddeley, Jonas Blixt, Keegan Bradley, Cameron Champ, Jason Dufner, Emiliano Grillo, James Hahn, J.B. Holmes, Max Homa, Russell Knox, Nate Lashley, Hideki Matsuyama, William McGirt, Sean O’Hair, Ted Potter Jnr, Andrew Putnam, Chez Reavie, Scott Stallings, Nick Taylor, Vaughn Taylor, Kevin Tway, Bo Van Pelt, Richy Werenski.
Naturally we’ve only seen two renewals of this tournament, but the difference in winners couldn’t have been more stark. 2019 saw 250/1 shot Nate Lashley pretty much lap the field, shooting an incredible -25/263. A second season player, Nate had only scored a single PGA Tour top-10 finish in Puerto Rico in the April, prior to winning here. He was outside the top 125 in the FedEx Cup, but arrived in Detroit as an alternate, buoyed by 28th place at the Pebble Beach hosted U.S. Open on his last outing. An opening 67 at Pebble had him in 6th place at the end of Thursday and he hung around admirably, ranking 6th for Greens in Regulation, 6th for Strokes Gained on Approach and 14th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green. Clearly on the crest of a wave confidence wise, Lashley arrived in Detroit on Wednesday evening as a last place alternate and recorded a huge win for the bookmakers. Since his win he’s gone on to finish 4th at Old White TPC, 3rd at TPC Scottsdale and 5th at Pebble Beach. His single win on the Korn Ferry Tour had been at -20/268 at the 2017 Corales Championship.
Last year saw Bryson DeChambeau arrive off post Covid-19 resumption form of 6th at the Travelers Championship, 8th at the RBC Heritage and 3rd at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He was the 7/1 favoutite. Bryson has already won 5 PGA Tour titles and won by 3 shots from Matthew Wolff and by 5 from Kevin Kisner.
Linking Bryson and Nate from a playing style is difficult, nee impossible! Both though were highly ranked highly in terms of Strokes Gained on Approach arriving in Michigan, and both renewals also highlight that Strokes Gained Putting was the key to victory. Nate Lashley, with 2.06 Strokes Gained Tee to Green per round, outscored that with his putter, gaining 2.33 Strokes Putting per round. Bryson DeChambeau, with 1.82 Strokes Gained Tee to Green per round, outscored that with his putter gaining 1.96 Strokes Putting per round. A rarity that on the PGA Tour. So we want strong SG on Approach play and hope that goes hand-in-hand with a hot week for the putter.
