Saudi International Tips

Finding the right angle of attack proved to be a bit of dilemma for me this week. At the top of the market, the relative lack of outings in recent months for both Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka is a little off-putting, however it’s impossible to put a line through them with any conviction and either could win. Equally both could fail to live up to their short prices and make any leap of faith as to their form and fitness a bad decision.

Victor Perez was the closest I came to backing someone near the top of the market and, his final round last week aside, he’s been playing some beautiful golf of late. 22/1 though with names like Johnson and Koepka in front of him holds little appeal and has ultimately driven me far further down the list where an each-way payout would roughly equal the return on a straight win from the likes of a Perez, Lowry, Garcia, Stenson or Ancer.

The shortest priced player in my team of 4 this week is Ryan Fox. 2^nd to MinWoo Lee in the Driving Distance charts for the full European Tour season last year, the Kiwi has the raw power that I want to see this week on a course that rewards aggressive play on the short par-4s and two par-5s. Accuracy suffers for a player of his prodigious length as you might expect, however that seemed of secondary consideration here last year and the 33 year-old acquitted himself well with a 6^th place finish on his Royal Greens debut.

Ryan’s most eye-catching form has come on either linksy or coastal tracks with 2^nd at the 2018 Irish Open, 4^th at the 2017 Irish Open, 4^th at the 2017 Scottish Open and 6^th at, again, the Scottish Open the pick of the bunch. Add to that his breakthrough victory at the Super 6 in Perth, which isn’t a million miles inland, and we have a player who thrives when the seaside isn’t far away.

That Lake Karrinyup link might not be as tenuous as it sounds with 4^th place finisher here last year MinWoo Lee having twice made the final 8 in Perth, plus Alex Levy – that perennial risk/reward performer who finished 5^th last year – also finishing 2^nd on the track when it was a regular strokeplay event back in 2016.

Ryan’s recent form on the face of it is a little understated with no top-10 finishes in 24 starts since winning that aforementioned maiden title in Australia, however after going right off the boil following his win, there are definite signs that he’s on the ascendancy once again.

5^th heading into the weekend at the Dunhill Links was a big step forward and he led the Open de France a couple of starts later before eventually finishing in a tie for 18^th. 69 to open at the Australian PGA put him inside the top 10 after day 1 and a 3^rd round 66 last week in Dubai was only a shot off the best round recorded on the day.

The 2019 PGA Tour of Australasia Order of Merit winner should be buoyed by that career milestone; he could also feed off the positive vibes here in Saudi Arabia from last year’s performance to reward each-way backers with a place return or better. Result: T27

Whilst not quite as long off the tee as Ryan Fox, Renato Paratore is no slouch when it comes to Driving Distance and at 22^nd in the embryonic charts for the 2020 season he’s got the power and attacking mindset to take on this week’s task.

The 2017 Nordea Masters champion finished 18^th here last season, quickly getting to grips with the layout with an opening round of 65 which left him 2^nd to Thomas Pieters after 18 holes. He repeated that score on Saturday to give himself an outside chance of making the frame which ultimately didn’t happen, however it was his Friday 74 that let him down in truth and there were lots of positives to take from his effort overall.

8^th at the British Masters was the Italian’s best effort of the 2018/19 season thereafter, however he’s started this new 2019/20 season off in fine style with a 19^th place finish at Leopard Creek, a play-off defeat to Rasmus Hojgaard in Mauritius and a big personal best finish of 21st in Abu Dhabi where he led after round 1 with a blistering round of 64 and closed with a 66. Last week’s missed cut in Dubai can be overlooked given the severity of the setup and this week’s task should be much more to his liking. Result: T27

2^nd for Driving Distance on the European Tour in 2018, 4^th on the same count in 2019 and 6^th in the early stages of the 2020 stats tells us everything we need to know about the long game of Dean Burmester, however with 7 Sunshine Tour wins to his name – one of which was the European Tour co-sanctioned Tshwane Open – there’s a little more about him than just pure bombing.

7^th at the 2017 Abu Dhabi Championship, 4^th at both the 2017 and 2018 DP World Tour Championship season-ending affairs in excellent company, and 3^rd last week in Dubai for a big personal best around the Majlis course tells us that the 30 year-old is more than comfortable playing in the Middle East and I’m happy to ride last week’s bounce in form in the hope that he can build on that further here in Saudi.

A missed cut here last year wasn’t overly surprising as it followed finishes of MC/49/48/MC leading into the event, however we know that Dean can blow hot and cold and given the price on offer I’m happy to take a chance on him here.

4 Missed Cuts leading up to last week’s effort in Dubai hardly inspired confidence, however prior to that he’d finished 14^th at Vilamoura – another risk/reward style track – and had been firmly in contention heading into Sunday in 2^nd place, so something was clearly percolating in his game.

We’ve seen before that Burmester can hold his form when he finally finds it – 6 event form of 4/7/41/4/17/11 immediately preceded that maiden European Tour win in his homeland 3 years ago – and encouragingly both his approach play and short game looked in good health last week, a potent combination for a player who hits it as far as he does. Result: T11

Finally, continuing the theme of my big-hitting longshots this week, I’m also taking a punt on the enigmatic Scott Hend. I say enigmatic as he’s a tough player to call right, however 15 professional victories in a career that’s spanned 4 decades tells us that he’s more than capable of getting over the line when the situation arises, which is more than can be said of many of his peers.

Despite regularly residing towards the very top of the Driving Distance charts, the 46 year-old’s best European Tour efforts have generally come on short courses at the likes of Hong Kong, Malaysia and in the Swiss Alps at Crans-Sur-Sierre where he’s twice finished runner-up. That’s the point with Hend as it’s tended to be courses that he can overpower that have reaped the best rewards, rather than long tracks where his length simply gives him a fighting chance. The dimensions here at Royal Greens play firmly to his strengths, an assertion that’s backed up by his 6^th place finish here 12 months ago where a second round 63 thrust him into contention.

It wasn’t to be here last year, however he arrives here in better overall form with 2 top-20 finishes in his last 4 starts and despite missing the cut last week in Dubai, where he perennially struggles from off the tee, seeing him keep up the recent domination by his compatriots of PGA and European Tour golf isn’t out of the equation.

12^th in Thailand before Christmas featured Scott’s best GIR performance since winning in Malaysia last March and 17^th in Abu Dhabi featured his best putting performance for nigh-on 2 years. Last week’s effort at the Emirates aside, the key aspects of his game for this week’s test have been firing nicely and I’m happy to take a chance on him here this week given the price on offer. Result: MC