Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Singapore Classic Tips 2024

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It wasn’t to be for us at the Jonsson Workwear Open the week before last, with headline selection Thriston Lawrence (18/1) and 125/1 shot Shaun Norris both finishing in a tie for 2nd place behind Matteo Manassero, who closed with 4 straight birdies to take his first top-level title since winning at Wentworth way back in 2013.

After a week to recuperate, we head east and towards the equator this week as we return to Singapore for the second consecutive year after last year’s inaugural Singapore Classic, which was the first event in the country at this level since 2014.

Fresh from his top 20 finish at TPC Sawgrass, Shane Lowry flies in this week and heads the market at a best-price 10/1. Farmers Insurance Open winner Matthieu Pavon undertakes the same journey, although he missed the cut at The PLAYERS, and the leading pair are joined by Rasmus Hojgaard and Paul Casey at sub-16/1 before we get into the DP World regulars.

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Before we go into more detail and my final Singapore Classic tips, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System as we head towards The Masters. Welcome to you all and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, 6,300-strong private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Course Overview. There are two courses at the Laguna National resort in Singapore, the Masters Course – which hosted the Singapore Open on the European Tour as was until 2007, then the Championship at Laguna National in 2014 – and the Classic Course which is our venue for this week’s event, as it was last February.

From an event history perspective, the Classic Course has seen less professional action since it was opened in 1993, with the 2015 World Classic Championship, won by Danthai Boonma, on the Asian Tour the only notable event to have used the track prior to last year’s inaugural Singapore Classic.

Dubbed ‘The Beast’, the course certainly showed its teeth back in 2015 with only Boonma and runner-up Nicholas Fung finishing the right side of par, and only just the right side at that at 2- and 1-under respectively. Post-monsoon conditions last year tamed the beast though with a course that was flooded at times providing the sort of soft conditions that allow professionals to make a score, with Ockie Strydom eventually winning at 19-under par.

A hilly course stretching to 7,420 yards from its tips, some renovations were made following Boonma’s win and it will play as a Par 72 this week as it did last year, with the back 9 considerably long than the front.

The rough tends to be thick and penal here and 5 imposing lakes and water features are ready to gobble up any seriously errant play, however the fairways are quite generous and in general this is best described as a second shot course.

singapore classic tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Singapore Classic that will help to shape a view on players who could go well this week.

Event form is taken from the various events held here at Laguna National resort since 2002, with 2015 and 2023 the only events played specifically on this week’s ‘Classic’ track: Current Form | Event Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Current/Event Form.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Laguna National Winners:

  • Classic Course: 2023: Ockie Strydom, 19; 2015: Danthai Boonma (-2, played as a Par 71)
  • Masters Course: 2014: Felipe Aguilar, -22; 2007: Wen-Chong Liang, -11; 2006: Mardan Mamat, -12; 2005: Nick Dougherty, -18; 2004: Colin Montgomery, -16; 2003: Lien-Wei Zhang, -10; 2002: Arjun Atwal, -14.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Singapore is here.

Mainly dry and humid conditions are expected throughout, with temperatures peaking in the high-80s Fahrenheit, although thundery showers can never be discounted in this part of the world. Winds will be light to moderate at around 10 mph.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Last year’s Singapore Classic top 5 finishers recorded the following numbers:

  • 1st Ockie Strydom. 299 yards (32nd), 78.6% fairways (22nd), 77.8% greens in regulation (10th), 75% scrambling (9th), 1.68 putts per GIR (22nd).
  • 2nd Sami Valimaki. 310 yards (10th), 75% fairways 31st), 79.2% greens in regulation (4th), 60% scrambling (36th), 1.66 putts per GIR (16th).
  • 3rd Alejandro Del Rey. 330 yards (1st), 58.9% fairways (59th), 65.3% greens in regulation (55th), 68% scrambling (22nd), 1.66 putts per GIR (17th).
  • 3rd Marcel Schneider. 298 yards (37th), 82.1% fairways (11th), 73.6% greens in regulation (20th), 78.9% scrambling (4th), 1.70 putts per GIR (29th).
  • 3rd Jeunghun Wang. 293 yards (47th), 83.9% fairways (7th), 69.5% greens in regulation (40th), 77.3% scrambling (7th), 1.73 putts per GIR (37th).

Although it was an Asian Tour event, we do also have some skill stats recorded for the 2015 World Classic Championship held here on the Classic course. The top 4 finishers recorded the following numbers:

  • 1st Danthai Boonma. 279 yards (45th), 87.5% fairways (7th), 72.2% greens in regulation (6th), 60% scrambling (1st), 1.77 putts per GIR (49th).
  • 2nd Nicholas Fung. 289 yards (28th), 94.6% fairways (2nd), 63.9% greens in regulation (38th), 57.7% scrambling (2nd), 1.72 putts per GIR (25th).
  • 3rd Jenughun Wang. 303 yards (3rd), 80.4% fairways (23rd), 72.2% greens in regulation (6th), 30% scrambling (29th), 1.69 putts per GIR (15th).
  • 4th Sam Brazel. 296 yards (14th), 87.5% fairways (7th), 72.2% greens in regulation (6th), 20% scrambling (53rd), 1.65 putts per GIR (5th).

With soft conditions last year, driving distance was more of a factor with all players in the final top 10 averaging at least 293 yards from off the tee. Similarities between the two events in terms of high average driving accuracy figures reinforces the assertion that this is a second shot course where either maximising GIR or having a strong week on and around the greens are the routes to success.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, stats for the same top 5 finishers last year were as follows:

  • 1st Ockie Strydom: T: 39th; A: 2nd; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 5th; P: 58th
  • 2nd Sami Valimaki: T: 12th; A: 13th; T2G: 11th; ATG: 53rd; P: 9th
  • 3rd Alejandro Del Rey: T: 13th; A: 25th; T2G: 14th; ATG: 33rd; P: 26th
  • 3rd Marcel Schneider: T: 24th; A: 33rd; T2G: 7th; ATG: 4th; P: 27th
  • 3rd Jeunghun Wang: T: 16th; A: 28th; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 1st; P: 57th

The most consistent statistic last year was SG Tee to Green, with each of the top 5 finishers ranking inside the top 14 in the field on that count.

Although Valimaki and Del Rey’s numbers weren’t as impressive, Strydom, Schneider and Wang all ranked inside the top 5 for SG Around the Green too, and that is another key stat potentially.

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form. The incoming form of the same 5 players would suggest that sparkling incoming form isn’t the be-all and end-all here, with the top two finishers both missing their last two cuts:

  • 1st Ockie Strydom: 31/16/12/6/MC/MC/15/1/WD/63/MC/MC
  • 2nd Sami Valimaki: 20/22/68/MC/27/2/56/58/11/10/MC/MC
  • 3rd Alejandro Del Rey: MC/17/13/MC/MC/16/38/30/23/MC/MC/28/
  • 3rd Marcel Schneider: 7/MC/16/13/28/23/8/25/34/MC/75/19
  • 3rd Jeunghun Wang: 26/14/44/22/5/23/3/48/MC/MC/28/MC

Looking at the difference in winning scores and difficulty between last year’s tournament and the 2015 Asian Tour event, the main difference was timing with the event last year being played in February instead of November. Now the relevance of that is the monsoon season in Singapore, which came after the 2015 event and before the 2023 event, meaning that last year’s event was played in much softer conditions.

We’re a month or so further on in the calendar this year, and although there’s the omnipresent risk of electrical storms any given day which could soak the course, in general we shouldn’t be looking at such a soft course this time around. That being said, there’s little wind in the forecast and I’d still expect the players to be getting into the low teens under par over the course of 4 days, if not maybe quite as deep as 13 months ago.

My selections are as follows:

Paul Casey 3pts EW 16/1 (5EW, 1/4) with bet365

Much has been written, and said, about the validity and mechanics of the Official World Golf Rankings over the years, with tweaks and changes to the algorithm barely touching the sides, however the advent of LIV has increased the level of column inches as well as the decibel level on the matter considerably in recent times.

Few would argue that Scottie Scheffler doesn’t deserve to sit at the top of the pile  – and by some considerable distance – however there’s similarly few who could reasonably argue that Paul Casey is the 832nd best golfer on the planet right now. This is a player don’t forget who reached 3rd in the OWGR back in 2009 when at his very best, in a time when the rankings perhaps meant something more than they do right now.

A win here won’t correct the Englishman’s position overnight, nor will it earn him a start at Augusta next month – which makes it 3 years on the spin where he’ll have to give The Masters a miss – however a win would nevertheless elevate him significantly up the rankings, for whatever that’s worth.

We saw at the back end of 2023 that LIV golfers who venture back to DP World Tour level through whichever category works for them are more than competitive: Joaquin Niemann won the co-sanctioned Australian Open in December with LIV colleagues Dean Burmester and Louis Oosthuizen both winning twice in the DP World Tour’s ‘Opening Swing’ before Christmas. All 3 received healthy boosts to their OWGR position, and whilst the trio still sit outside of the world’s top 50 right now, they’re undoubtedly closer than they would have otherwise been.

Casey tees it up this week with the far more lucrative Valspar Championship, which he’s won twice, happening the other side of the Atlantic and perhaps he’ll have a point to prove arriving here on a sponsor’s exemption. 5th at LIV Golf Las Vegas just over a month ago was followed by 29th in Jeddah then a play-off defeat to Abraham Ancer last time out in Hong Kong, where a final round 64 earned him a chance to take the title in extra time which just fell short. 1st for GIR and 2nd for Scrambling were eye-catching stats at Fanling and undoubtedly bode well for this week’s task.

Although this will be the 46 year-old’s competitive course debut, 10th, 2nd and 16th from 3 starts at this level in Singapore at Sentosa golf club suggest a level of comfort in the region, and with wins in China and Korea to his name from the past, he’s well capable of beating up what’s largely a weak field aside from those around him at the very top of the market. RESULT: 6th

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Daniel Brown 1pt EW 90/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

I backed Daniel Brown when he secured his breakthrough victory at the ISPS Handa World Invitational back in August, and although he continued to make cuts following his win without really threatening a win, it’s the most recent signs of life in his game that make him backable here this week.

Prior to that success last summer, the Northallerton man had impressed with a 17th place finish at the Made in Himmerland followed by 7th at the PGA Tour co-sanctioned Barbasol Championship which followed a few poor weeks, and 7 months on we’re faced with a very similar scenario as we head to Singapore.

43rd at the 60-man Dubai International was followed by a missed cut at the Dubai Desert Classic as the 29 year-old failed to build on the spark of form he’d shown in Mauritius just before Christmas when finishing 3rd. 76th in Ras al Khaimah and 61st in Qatar offered little further encouragement, however a switch of continent saw him spring back to life with a contending 4th place finish at the SDC Championship followed by a fast-finishing 23rd last time out at the Jonsson Workwear Open.

64 to close at Glendower on that most recent effort was just a stroke off of the best rounds of the day, and he can approach this week with confidence having had 4 rounds to look at this week’s venue last year when he finished in a tie for 38th.

A strong all-round player who can fire on any given statistic on any given week, it was interesting to see that it was the putter that worked nicely at the SDC Championship to give him a chance of winning the event before last, and it was the putter here 13 months ago which also caught the eye, ranking 2nd for Putts per GIR in old money. Now that Dan’s starting to get a second look at these courses I’m expecting some big improvements over the previous year’s effort, potentially starting this week. RESULT: MC

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Ashun Wu 1pt EW 90/1 (8EW, 1/5) with BetFred

If you’ve been following my previews this year then you’ll know that I’ve chanced my arm with Ashun Wu a couple of times already in 2024 to no avail, firstly at the Dubai Invitational where he finished in a tie for 48th, then at the Kenya Open where he finished 23rd.  Progress in terms of his finishing position undoubtedly, however nothing to trouble the bookies so far.

9th at the Qatar Masters is the 4-time DP World Tour winner’s best finish of the year to date, and that effort on a tougher week for scoring is the clue that I need to take a chance on him here this week in Singapore.

12th here last year in a week where overly soft conditions nullified much of the threat that ‘The Beast’ can pose, the promise of a dry, hot week this time round could be music to the ears of the Chinese star whose 72-hole career victories have all come between 9- and 16-under par. Wu isn’t the longest of hitters either, so for him to have fared so well last year – closing with a round of 64 which was beaten only by eventual winner Ockie Strydom – I suspect the course will set up even better for him this time around.

29th last time out at Glendower was still noteworthy given the low-scoring nature of that week, and 2nd for SG Approach (normal South African event caveats apply) that week suggests that his irons were in good shape.

From the little tangible evidence we have from this course, a strong short game isn’t a bad asset to have here at Laguna National, and Wu has led the field for scrambling in 2 of his last 3 starts and also leads the Tour for Sand Saves for the season to date. Perhaps my loyalty to the 38 year-old will prove to be misguided once again, however at the price on offer I’m happy to take the chance that I’m right. RESULT: T43

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Ugo Coussaud 1pt EW 100/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

Rookie Ugo Coussaud continues to impress as he navigates his way through his first season at the top of European golf, and there’s plenty to suggest that a breakthrough at this level isn’t too far away.

Since graduating to the DP World Tour courtesy of finishing 4th on last year’s Challenge Tour rankings, the Frenchman has barely looked back after missing the cut at the Joburg Open on his first start, not missing a weekend since and finishing as runner up at the Qatar Masters last month on a course which he was seeing for the first time. With course experience this week largely limited to last year’s renewal only, the 31 year-old will undoubtedly be less disadvantaged here in Singapore.

24th at the SDC Open and 23rd at Glendower since that effort at Doha, Coussaud’s numbers are really starting to impress, ranking 7th, 1st and 2nd for SG Around the Green over his last 3 starts – which given what we saw here last year is no bad thing – and putting averages of 3rd, 3rd and 14th over those same three starts suggests he’s getting plenty out of his game on and around the greens at present.

A win in India last year on the Challenge Tour, plus runner-up finishes in Abu Dhabi, South Africa and Sweden, suggests that this long hitter travels well and has the versatility to adapt to any kind of test. RESULT: T37

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Ockie Strydom 1pt EW 160/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

Finally, after backing him on his last two starts to no avail, I’ll give Ockie Strydom one last chance here this week after a week’s break for him to get himself ready and focussed for his title defence.

31st at the SDC Championship and a missed cut last time out at Glendower are hardly grounds for massive confidence I grant you, however neither were the pair of missed cuts that preceded his victory here last February, and if there’s one thing that is certain about the 39 year-old is that you can just never be sure what to expect. This week is no different – it could be another weekend off, or the South African might, just might, make a valiant attempt to retain his Singapore Classic crown.

One piece of tangible evidence that we have to suggest he could go well is that driving accuracy, an area that he’s struggled on of late, doesn’t seem to matter quite as much here at Laguna National. Even when finishing 4th in Bahrain and 16th in Qatar last month, Ockie was hitting little more than 40% of fairways, and that metric ultimately did for him last time out at Glendower where 21% accuracy simply won’t cut it.

Yet the Classic Course here at Laguna National encourages far higher driving accuracy percentages, levelling the field in that respect, and that brings a player like Strydom into play, much as it did here last year when he won. Having hit 28% of fairways the previous week in Ras al Khaimah, the more amenable dimensions of this track allowed him to find the short grass nearly 80% of the time, which in turn freed him up to create and convert opportunities.

You have to go back over a decade, granted, and drop to the IGT Pro Tour to find evidence that Ockie can defend a title, however he did just that at the 2012/13 Mafeking Pro-Am events back then, and perhaps he’ll get the kind of positive vibe when returning to the scene of last year’s triumph that sets him up for another big week. RESULT: T43

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 13:00GMT 18.3.24 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.

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