2026 sees the Sony Open in
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You can read Liam Williams’ Power Rankings for the Sony Open in Hawaii at bet365 News.
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Course Guide: Waialae Country Club has changed in recent years from a tight, technical track by the coast to a course where low scoring is more than achievable if the wind allows. The 1927 Seth Raynor-designed property used to be the domain of the short, accurate hitter, but in recent renewals longer hitters such as Ryan Palmer (2010), Jimmy Walker (2014 and 2015), Justin Thomas (2017) and Grayson Murray (2024) have won in Honolulu where accurate driving has become immaterial despite the players making out that it is.
This is a real Jekyll and Hyde course where the winning score has varied from -11/269 (2020) to a resort-level -27/253 (2017) dependant upon rough length (short 2″ is the norm), speed of the course, and – naturally in Hawaii – the strength of the wind. 2026 looks similar to last year so a mid-teens winning total is likely.
Waialae Country Club, Honolulu, Hawaii: Designer: Raynor, 1927 with Tom Doak restoration 2017/18; Course Type: Coastal, Mid-Score Scoring, Short; Par: 70; Length: 7,044 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 5; Number of Bunkers: 83; Acres of Fairway: 50; Fairways Bermudagrass; Rough: Bermudagrass, 3″; Greens: 7,100 sq.ft TifDwarf Bermudagrass; Stimpmeter: 11ft.
Designer Links: For research purposes other Raynor input designs include:
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for the Waialae Country Club and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
Course Overview: The scoring at Waialae is always shaped by the level of wind, depth of rough, and the speed of the greens. -16/264 plus -17/263 winning scores over the past 2 renewals were driven by 25 to 30 mph winds. -18/262 was the winning score in 2023, mainly driven by thicker rough and greens that were slightly firmer than the previous year. Softer conditions and a breeze no higher than 16 mph across the 4 days saw a -23/257 winning total required in 2022, similar to -21/259 in 2021. This place can bite though: 2020 saw plenty of wind with 35-40mph easterly trade winds on Thursday/Friday, which dropped slightly to 20-25 mph over the weekend. The result was Cameron Smith winning at -11/269 which was the highest winning score of the Sony Open since Vijay Singh in 2005.
One thing to note with Waialae is a trend of new green complexes across the property. Holes 1, 11 and 13 were re-modelled in 2017 with overhauls of the greens on the par-4 6th hole, par-3 17th and par-5 18th in 2018.
In tranquil conditions Waialae Country Club is a pretty straightforward 7,044 yard Par 70 – it was the third easiest Par 70 on Tour last year. It’s a flat design with generous enough fairways and fairly small green complexes which can yield plenty of birdies as long as you’re consistently hitting greens. It’s a traditional Par 70 format which features a couple of par-5s, both of which are reachable.
Waialae is one of the more difficult tests for driving accuracy, with fairways which traditionally run very fast seeing drives run through into light Bermuda rough. The view from players that getting close to the pin from off the fairway is difficult is backed up by the fact that Waialae is traditionally in the top 20 most difficult courses in terms of Rough Proximity. However the need for driving accuracy has been significantly negated in recent years as lower rough height has played into the hands of the longer hitters or just the wayward. Accuracy no longer appears to be a pre-requisite for victory. Fact is that hitting masses of fairways is not a pre-requisite to winning the tournament as long as you can consistently hit excellent approach shots.
The key to success is fairly simple as approach shots from 125-200 yards make up 70% of approaches. Waialae over recent renewals has been the easiest course for par-5 Birdie or Better Conversion – indeed the par-5 holes last year yielded 63 eagles and an incredible 520 birdies across both the 9th and 18th.
Allied to this, now that we have plenty of Strokes Gained data to peruse, it’s clear that SG Approach and SG Tee to Green are the key factors when it comes to winning around Waialae. It’s undoubtedly a second shot golf course, which is ultimately won with a progressive, but not necessarily red hot putter. Green complexes are pretty flat, but many a player finds the TifDwarf Bermudagrass difficult to putt on. So look for players who are confident with the putter on Bermudagrass and who can convert birdie chances.
Sony Open Winners: 2025: Nick Taylor (-16); 2024: Grayson Murray (-17); 2023: Si Woo Kim (-18); 2022: Hideki Matsuyama (-23); 2021: Kevin Na (-21); 2020: Cameron Smith (-11); 2019: Matt Kuchar (-22); 2018: Patton Kizzire (-17); 2017: Justin Thomas (-27); 2016: Fabian Gomez (-20); 2015: Jimmy Walker (-23); 2014: Jimmy Walker (-17); 2013: Russell Henley (-24); 2012: Johnson Wagner (-13); 2011: Mark Wilson (-16); 2010: Ryan Palmer (-15).
OWGR of Sony Open Winners: 2025: N Taylor 73; 2024: Murray 132; 2023: Si Woo Kim 84; 2022: Matsuyama 19; 2021: Na 38; 2020: Smith 54; 2019: Kuchar 32; 2018: Kizzire 105; 2017: Thomas 12.
Datagolf Ranking of RSM Classic Winners: 2025: N Taylor 172; 2024: Murray 258; 2023: Si Woo Kim 75; 2022: Matsuyama 20; 2021: Na 66.
Cut Line: 2025: -2; 2024: -2; 2023: -2; 2022: -5; 2021: -4; 2020: +1; 2019: -2.
Lead Score Progression:
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for Sony winners:
Shots From the Lead: Below are Sony winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
Incoming form of Sony winners since 2010:
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Collin Morikawa, 2) Russell Henley, 3) Hideki Matsuyama, 4) Chris Kirk, 5) Keegan Bradley, 6) Benjamin Griffin, 7) SiWoo Kim, 8) J.J Spaun, 9) Nick Taylor, 10) Jordan Spieth.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
Sony Open Winning Prices: 2025: N Taylor 125/1; 2024: Murray 400/1; 2023: Si Woo Kim 45/1; 2022: Matsuyama 20/1; 2021: Na 80/1; 2020: Smith 55/1; 2019: Kuchar 40/1; 2018: Kizzire 80/1; 2017: Thomas 14/1; 2016: Gomez 100/1; 2015: Walker 18/1; 2014: Walker 40/1; 2013: Henley 100/1; 2012: Wagner 125/1; 2011: Wilson 80/1; 2010: Palmer 250/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 134/1 Overall Average: 98/1.
Historical Weather:
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Honolulu is here.
This area has taken on a decent amount of rain in December and early January (approx 140mm – 5.5 inches). There’s a 60% chance of rain on Monday and 85% chance on Wednesday evening into early tournament Thursday morning, so I’m expecting softer fairway conditions plus soft greens which are likely to stay that way throughout.
Wind will also be a factor throughout, with +20 mph across all 4 days, consistent from the north-east – i.e. trade winds. Temperatures will be slightly lower than 2025 at 23 degrees Celsius – 73 Fahrenheit – throughout. All-in-all, mid- to upper-teens seems the right kind of winning total.
Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Sanderson Farms Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Sony Open winners here at Waialae Country Club since 2015 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this tree-lined, old-style, coastal, Par 70:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
Stroked Gained history for this week’s field at the Sony Open since 2016 is available here.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners here since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
Tournament Skill Averages:
So let’s take a view from players as to how the Waialae course sets up and what skills the course favours:
Nick Taylor (2025): “In 2020 I hit it great. It was a really windy here that year. Just didn’t putt very well. I think I finished maybe 30th. Knew, okay, that was maybe one of my best results here. I think the COVID year I finished 11th. I think I had the lead through the first couple days, so again, I was getting momentum on this golf course.
The last three years have been great. I felt like this has been a course that I really started to enjoy. I see the lines really well on the greens. I’ve played them in the nine years probably in every winds condition possible, so really no surprises anymore. Yeah, I had confidence coming into this week. Last week, that’s one course on Tour where I’m confused how low they shoot, so I felt like my game was pretty good and I wasn’t overly concerned with only beating eight guys last week. I knew I was coming to a course that I felt like matched my game a little better.
Put some work in in the off-season and really wanted to be ready to go. Not that you’re ever expecting necessarily to win right away out of the gates after some time off, but I knew my west coast — because I was in the first two Signature Events, that my west coast was going to be great and a lot of golf courses I played well on and enjoy. So, again, to have this good of a start is awesome.”
Grayson Murray (2024): “Keegan played great and kind of was back and forth all day, and obviously Ben posted 17-under early. Keegan was at 17 with one to go and I was at 16 with one to go and I had to make a birdie to at least have a chance, and obviously hit a heck of a wedge shot in there close to get that birdie and fortunate enough to get in that playoff.
That tee shot on 18 is not a good tee shot for a fader with the wind off the left. Tug it off the tee in the playoff, and we each just had to lay up. Didn’t hit my best wedge shot, but obviously I made the putt and was expecting both of them to make birdie, at least one of them.
I was kind of losing my balance off the tee shot the last few holes, just maybe a little nerves, maybe a little fatigue, and I left it out right. I’d get over there, and the rough isn’t trampled down like we thought so I wasn’t going to get a great lie when we did drop from the grandstands. We assessed the lie and I thought maybe I could open up a 7-wood and get it up there close to the green, but I don’t think the risk-reward was there, so we decided to hit I think — I forget what I hit, but we laid up to a great number where when the wind was in our face I could hit a low wedge shot in there.
I think we played that hole great, and we talked about, when we did get out of position all week, we talked it out. That’s the one thing I’m working on is just being super patient when I don’t hit the shot that I’m trying to hit at first.”
Si Woo Kim (2023): “Last week (Kapalua) is huge up-and-down and this course kind of flat. It’s kind of still windy, so hard to distance control.”
Hideki Matsuyama (2022): “Yeah, I mean, I feel great. To be able to win back-to-back with ZOZO and here with at the Sony, and especially on a course that I haven’t really played that well. It’s a tough golf course for me.
The differences between this week and last week? The fairways are so wide there at the Plantation Course, but here at Waialae, it’s narrow. The key this week was to keep the ball in the fairway off the tee.”
Kevin Na (2021): “I’m striking the ball very well. I’m making my share of putts. These greens can be really tricky out there and the grains can fool you. And it’s tough to read. If I can make some momentum putts tomorrow, I think I’ll be all right. It’s not a golf course you need to overpower. Just keep hitting it straight.”
The greens roll great but the only difficult part is the grains are sometimes difficult to judge. You know, we’ve had a couple putts this week and just not — not just myself, even my fellow playing partners, where it looks like it’s going to do one thing and it doesn’t. If you can just read these greens well, you’re going to be really ahead of the field.”
Cameron Smith (2020): ” Yeah, I think that’s what you kind of to lean on in weeks like this. You’re going to miss greens, and with the greens being so small and the fairways being so small, yeah, definitely need a good short game around here.
I think with the Presidents Cup being so late I didn’t get a chance to kind of put the clubs down. Probably only had four or five days off, whereas usually have three or four weeks off. Yeah, just kind of a bit of momentum from those tournaments. I felt like I played really good in Australia all three weeks. Obviously not with the results that I wanted with all three tournaments, but, yeah, I felt as though I played pretty solid.”
Matt Kuchar (2019): “If you drive it well you can play well. This course is tricky, it’s tight, there are a lot of doglegs. Finding fairways are a tough thing to do and I drove it really well. Certainly this course is unique. We don’t play many like it. Reminds me a little bit of Hilton Head, a little bit of Colonial. It’s tight, it’s narrow, it’s flat, but, man, it’s tricky.
Similarities between El Camaleon and here? Both courses are very tight, very demanding driving golf courses. That would probably be the biggest similarity. The state of my game has felt similar; I’ve felt very much in control of what I’ve been doing with the golf ball.”
Patton Kizzire: “There’s a lot of birdies out there. You just have to make the most. I think it’s going to be a shootout. There’s a lot of opportunities on those par 5s and the par 4s. If you hit good shots, you can make birdies on almost every hole. But if you’re in the rough or out of position, you’re really scrambling for par. So I think there’s a lot of guys that are going to be making birdies. I just got to keep the pedal down and try to make a bunch.”
Justin Thomas: “Yeah, that same round, I was driving it well. And I know this course, if you drive it well, you can play it really well. It’s the hardest fairways to hit on Tour I think, and the greens aren’t big, and the rough is kind of that length to where you can get some flyers or it can come out dead. The biggest thing is just getting it in play, because I can just hit a lot of 2-irons out here and then I’m having short irons in, and I felt comfortable enough with those that I could hit my numbers. It wasn’t windy. Going back to that round, I remember, like I said, hitting it well and just kind of, it was an easy 61. Not that, you know, today wasn’t easy by any means, but it’s just low stress. It’s fairway, green under the hole, make the putt, not very much break, sort of thing. That’s just kind of what I did today. Yeah, it’s obviously two total and completely different golf courses. A lot more drivers last week. Just kind of whaling away more so. The fairways are huge this week. It’s a lot of position, and getting in the fairways, but I am kind of starting to hit a decent amount of drivers. Just to use my length to my advantage, and I feel comfortable with some of the drives.”
Kevin Kisner: “I have to keep it in the fairway, which is difficult with some of the winds and how fast the fairways were going, but today I was able to do that and hopefully keep doing it through the weekend. I love these greens. They were a little less grainy than last week and more like what I grew up on, so I feel very comfortable with them. I must have gotten better since the last few times I played here. I’ve always struggled at this course, coming over, being a little rusty from the East Coast and cold weather and trying to adjust. But this year I got to go to Maui and get kind of the rust off and the game feels good.”
Jimmy Walker: “Obviously I know this is one of the harder weeks on Tour to hit fairways, I think, is what this statistically comes down to. I always joke with my buddies that that plays into my hands because I don’t hit any fairways anyway. But it is nice to be in the fairway here. I remember I did drive it well here last year. I drove it really well, and that helps you set up to attack some of these greens and attack the pins. The greens are small. I mean, they’re tiny compared to last week. Fairways are tiny. It’s a much smaller course, but it does still play long. We were hitting a lot longer mid irons today with no wind, and it’s just a fraction soft. But you’ve still got to hit really good second shots. Driving it good here is nice because the rough is up and greens are small and you don’t want to be catching fliers into these greens and then you’ve got tough chip shots. I think it’s kind of get it in the fairway, get it on the green and get some putts to go in. It seems like you always go about 4 under a day out here or 5 under, that usually gets you right where you want to be.”
Zach Johnson: “Compare Waialae to Kapalua? Completely different. You’re talking about the hardest walk in golf at Maui to potentially and arguably the easiest golf on the PGA TOUR here at Waialae. Vastly different, but also challenging, too, because you’re going for some of the biggest fairways and some of the smallest fairways, and you’re going for some of the biggest greens and some of the smallest greens. Everything you would want in a golf course where you’ve got to pick it apart and plot your way around I think this golf lends itself to. If there’s any wind here, it’s hard, and it usually is blowing. This is hit the ball in the fairway, however you do it, get the ball in the fairway and then stay below the pin, keep the golf course in front of you and make those four and five footers. A great test.”
Matt Kuchar: “I told people that coming from Kapalua, these greens are much friendlier to putt. I feel like I have really good chances to see the ball go in. I love Kapalua, but the amount of slope and the amount of grain in the greens is challenging. It’s challenging to make putts there. Here these greens are much flatter with much less grain and much less slope, and it seems like it’s a much easier place to make putts now. The biggest difference is you can make putts more easily here, but hitting fairways is a much tougher task here than it is over at Kapalua. Here hitting fairways is so critical and today I did a very good job of that. There are a number of holes that can be extremely tough, that are tough holes, particularly finding the fairway, and if you don’t find the fairway, you’re struggling for pars. I found a lot of fairways today and was able to take a little more advantage. A hole can be taken advantage of when you’re in the fairway.”
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their group and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
In a traditional season, there’s no doubt that players who have played at Kapalua the week before the Sony Open have historically had an advantage. Of the past 27 Champions, 18 (67%) had played on Maui the week before triumphing here. However in 2026 with no Sentry event, we will see the first PGA Tour action of the year. Since 2014, Waialae winners namely Walker (x2), Gomez, Thomas, Kizzire, Kuchar, Na, Matsuyama and Nick Taylor, all played The Sentry. But what about the exceptions?
Sadly no longer with us, Grayson Murray’s last competitive action in 2024 had been the RSM Classic in late-November before flying to Honolulu for the Sony Open. Murray had won on the Korn Ferry Tour in September but Grayson’s only PGA Tour outing in the Fall had been a Missed Cut at the RSM Classic.
Si Woo Kim’s last competitive action had been the Houston Open in mid-November before flying to Honolulu for the 2023 Sony Open. In retrospect, if you are a form-in punter you would have had to take a leap of faith for a player whose 3 prior finishes were 35th in Houston, 52nd at the CJ Cup and 45th at the ZOZO Championship in Japan.
2019 saw Cameron Smith beating long-term leader Brendan Steele in a play-off to take his 2nd PGA Tour title. Neither had played the Tournament of Champions.
Course experience seems to be pay real dividends at Waialae as 19 of the past 20 champions had played the Sony Open prior to lifting the trophy. The only exception to this rule was Russell Henley in 2013 when he beat the rest of the field by a huge margin in his first PGA Tour start in his rookie season, having arrived in Honolulu fresh from 2 late season wins on the web.com Tour.
The key skill attributes at Waialae are hard to ascertain. All shapes and player types have won here from long hitters like Walker, Thomas, Matsuyama and Murray through to short game specialists such as Mark Wilson, Kevin Na and Nick Taylor. One-size fits all!
Making putts here though tends to be key be that in terms of Putts per GIR or Strokes Gained Putting. With small, flat greens this tournament eventually comes down to who converts the most chances, i.e. who putts the best on fairly grainy TifDwarf Bermudagrass greens. 10 of the past 14 winners of the Sony since 2012 finished in the top 10 for Strokes Gained Putting on the week. Worth noting though that 4 of the past 5 champions have not in the form of Kevin Na (23rd for SG Putting), Si Woo Kim (38th for SG Putting), Grayson Murray (29th for SG Putting) and Nick Taylor (23rd for Strokes Gained Putting), who clearly mashed their approaches and gained positively around the green as well.
Brian Harman 1.5pts EW 45/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
In an event where mid- to longer-priced winners have been the rule rather than exception, I’ve gone with a speculative team of four this week to kick off the 2026 season, headlined by Brian Harman.
The St Simons Island, Georgia resident kept himself active late into 2025 which I like, travelling over to India on the DP World Tour in October where he sat in 2nd place at halfway and 4th into Sunday before falling away with a closing round of 74. A pair of 67s at the RSM Classic wasn’t enough to make the weekend in a birdie-fest, before he closed off with a 16th place finish at the Hero in December. Unspectacular I grant you, but hardly disastrous either for a 4-time PGA Tour winner and former Ryder Cup team member.
A former winner on Bermudagrass greens and more than comfortable in a breeze, the 38 year-old sits inside the top 10 for performances on shorter courses over the past 5 years as per this week’s Predictor Model, as well as inside the top 20 for both Par-70 set-ups and Mid-Score tests, making him a more than suitable candidate to contend here at Waialae. A best of 4th here in 2018 where he led to halfway, Brian has made the cut here on his last 6 attempts and sat 5th heading into Sunday 12 months ago before closing with 71 to finish in a tie for 21st.
9th for SG Tee to Green and 11th for SG Approach on my 8-week Strokes Gained trackers tells us that his iron-play is in good enough shape to feature this week, and I like Harmon’s chances with a number of those above him in the betting having been inactive for some time.
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Billy Horschel 1pt EW 66/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
An injured hip kept Billy Horschel away from the course for much of 2025, however a gentle return to action in the autumn contained some positive signs and I’m happy to take a chance on the Floridian as he looks to climb back into the OWGR top 50.
A missed cut at Wentworth on his reappearance in September was to be expected, having been out of action since April at the RBC Heritage, however 54th at the Baycurrent Classic after an opening 77 was better, and 11th at the Bank of Utah Championship where he closed with three straight rounds of 66 suggested he was rapidly getting back to something like his best. 3rd for SG Around the Green and 12th for SG Putting in Utah was encouraging given that sharpness on and around the greens is often what needs most work after a long lay-off.
A best of 7th here at Waialae in 2021 is noteworthy, as are 4 career wins on Bermudagrass greens, and having dropped out of the OWGR top 50 before the end of the year and with only an Open Championship start guaranteed at this stage in terms of Majors, the 39 year-old will be looking to put himself back the right side of the line as soon as possible. Some TGL action over the past week or so will have knocked a little rust off of his game after the festive season, so Billy could be ready to fire this week in Hawaii.
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Austin Eckroat 1pt EW 110/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
Although the requirement for accuracy off the tee has been negated a little here at Waialae in recent years, there’s still scope for an accurate sort to contend here and to that end Austin Eckroat peaks my interest.
27th on Tour last year for Driving Accuracy puts the Edmond, Oklahoma resident in the upper echelons of precision from off the tee, despite 2025 failing to live up to the heights that he hit the year before. Wins at the Cognizant Classic and WWT Championship in 2024 highlight that Eckroat, who celebrated his 27th birthday on Monday, isn’t afraid to win, and after a poor follow-up season there were signs in the Fall segment of the schedule that his game was on a more positive trajectory.
11th at the Procore Championship in September represented Austin’s joint-best finish of 2025, and he closed the year with a round of 63 at the RSM Classic to lift himself up to a tie for 41st and give him some confidence heading into the new season.
12th here on debut in 2023, he led to halfway the year after before carding weekend rounds of 69/72 to drop down the leaderboard. There’s enough in those performances though to suggest that the course suits his eye, and with the 2025 slate wiped clean perhaps he can hit the ground running here this week in Hawaii.
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Nick Dunlap 1pt EW 170/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
Finally, I’ll take a chance on Nick Dunlap who, like Eckroat, largely had a 2025 to forget until the latter end of the year after a spectacular 2024 season.
Wins at the American Express in January 2024 (noteworthy for biorhythm fans) as an amateur and at the Barracuda Championship when we were on-board later that year singled out Dunlap as one of the brightest young talents to emerge in recent times, yet 2025 wasn’t anywhere near as impressive. 10th here at Waialae 12 months ago on debut was encouraging – and certainly a factor in me picking him for this week – but his off-the-tee game was poor all year and so were his results.
11th at the John Deere Classic showed some signs of life, however it wasn’t until he arrived in Mexico for the WWT Championship that he found something like his best game with that more forgiving setup, eventually finishing in a tie for 8th having been in the mix all week. 22nd to close the year in Japan at the Dunlop Phoenix saw him sit inside the top-10 for GIR for the second consecutive tournament, and perhaps we’ll see more of the same as he returns for a second look at Waialae.
A field-leading performance here last year in terms of SG Putting catches the eye, and with the strides that he appears to have been making with his game in general at the back end of 2025, that could be a potent combination given the price on offer.
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✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way
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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 14:00GMT 12.1.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.