Soudal Open Tips 2023 - Golf Betting System

Paul Williams' Soudal Open Tips 2023

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The Soudal Open is the DP World Tour’s final event before next week’s US PGA Championship, continuing on from last year’s inaugural event which picked up the reins from the Belgian Knockout which was Belgium’s premier event held here at Rinkven International Golf Club in 2018 & 2019.

Whereas the Belgian Knockout was one of the Tour’s forays into new, exciting formats – combining 36 holes of strokeplay with a series of 9-hole knockout matches over the weekend – the Soudal Open is a regular 72 holes of strokeplay with a full field of 156 players.

Thomas Detry returns from State-side action to head this week’s betting market at 16/1 as he continues to search for his first top-tier solo victory either side of the Atlantic. Thorbjorn Olesen, Yannik Paul, Alexander Bjork, Jorge Campillo and Adrian Otaegui follow on in the betting at 25/1 or shorter before the field begins to thin out a little.

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Course Overview. The Course at Rinkven is a parkland affair originally designed by Paul Rolin in 1985 and subsequently updated by Martin Hawtree. Some holes are tree-lined whilst others are exposed, however it’s generally a flat, scoreable track.

The layout played is a composite of the North and South courses and measures 6,940 yards for its par of 71 and is the same routing as we saw both last year and also at the Belgian Knockout events hosted here.

The front 9 is slightly longer than the back 9 with a solitary par-5 on both halves, however the short par-4s at the 11^th and 16^th both played easier than the long 17^th last year and presented eagle and birdie opportunities to those who were aggressive on those holes. Just 3 par-3s explains the par of 71, with 13 par-4s overall for the players to tackle.

The greens are Poa Annua-based, but overseeded with Bentgrass each year to achieve the desired playing surface of 80% Bentgrass, 20% Poa.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key statistics for this week’s event that will help to shape a view on players who might go well this week.

Course stats include results from the 4 events held here at Rinkven since 2010: Current Form | Course Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Course Winners. Soudal Open: 2022: Sam Horsfield, -13, 22/1; Belgian Knockout: 2019: Guido Migliozzi; 2018: Adrian Otaegui; Telenet Trophy (Challenge Tour): 2010: Lee Slattery, -21.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

Sunny spells and the odd shower are expected to accompany a fairly light breeze of 5-10mph, with the odd gust maybe a little higher. Temperatures will peak in the mid 60s Fahrenheit.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Last year’s Soudal Open gives us a starting point for this week, with the top 3 finishers producing the following core statistics:

1st: Sam Horsfield (-13). 46.7% fairways (58th), 70.8% greens in regulation (15th), 81% scrambling (2nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (13th).
2nd: Ryan Fox (-11). 45% fairways (61st), 70.9% greens in regulation (12th), 42.9% scrambling (60th), 1.57 putts per GIR (2nd).
2nd: Yannik Paul (-11). 58.3% fairways (23rd), 75% greens in regulation (7th), 77.8% scrambling (3rd), 1.72 putts per GIR (26th).

Accuracy off the tee didn’t prove pivotal here 12 months ago, with performance from the second shot and in much more important. With 18-21 a typical number of missed greens on the week for those contending near the top of the leaderboard, the ability to get up and down with regularity – or in the case of Ryan Fox compensate bogeys with birdies – seems critical.

Digging beneath the numbers from the two Belgian Knockout events gives us more history to peruse for this week. Analysing the final stats of the top 2 after the 36-hole strokeplay element gives us a little more insight into this test:

2019: Chris Paisley (-12). 66.7 % fairways (16th), 72.2% greens in regulation (42nd), 80.0% scrambling (11th), 1.58 putts per GIR (5th).
2018: Jorge Campillo (-8). 73.3% fairways (1st), 80.6% greens in regulation (5th), 28.6% scrambling (87th), 1.66 putts per GIR (12th).

Looking at the same 36-hole data for the eventual winners gives us another angle:

2019: Guido Migliozzi. 60.0% fairways (34th), 86.1% greens in regulation (2nd), 100% scrambling (1st), 1.77 putts per GIR (64th).
2018: Adrian Otaegui. 60.0% fairways (28th), 69.4% greens in regulation (35th), 54.5% scrambling (25th), 1.76 putts per GIR (50th).

Of course these numbers exclude the Matchplay element so the sample sizes are small, however the requirement to either hit greens or save bogeys when you don’t is at least fairly consistent.

Rinkven GC was also used for the Telenet Trophy on the Challenge Tour in 2010 won by Lee Slattery (final leaderboard is here) with a 21-under total. Although there were 4 par-5s on the course at the time, it was the par-4s that proved pivotal for Slattery 13 years ago as he finished -11 for those holes over the course of the week. Runner-up Edouard Dubois led the field for par-4 scoring at -13 on the week, and although we’re playing a different course routing now, the requirement for par-4 scoring was evident again last year:

1st: Sam Horsfield: Par 3, -2; Par 4, -8; Par 5, -3.
2nd: Ryan Fox: Par 3, -1; Par 4, -5; Par 5, -5.
2nd: Yannik Paul: Par 3, level; Par 4, -8; Par 5, -3.

Strokes Gained: There’s a similar caveat with the SG numbers that were captured in 2019 only, in that they are from the first 36 holes before the Matchplay element began. Some correlation is evident though with 36-hole leader Chris Paisley ranking 2^nd for SG Tee to Green behind eventual winner Guido Migliozzi:

2019 – 36 Hole Leader:

1st, Chris Paisley: T: 45th; A: 4th; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 17th; P: 5th

2019 – Overall Winner:

1st, Guido Migliozzi: T: 1st; A: 35th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 48th; P: 76^th

With the full 4 rounds played and recorded for last year’s Soudal Open, the picture becomes a little clearer with more consistency from the top 3 finishers’ SG Approach, Tee to Green and Putting performances:

2022 – Soudal Open:

1st, Sam Horsfield: T: 51st; A: 3rd; T2G: 12th; ATG: 32nd; P: 5th
2nd, Ryan Fox: T: 55th; A: 1st; T2G: 13th; ATG: 37th; P: 8th
2nd, Yannik Paul: T: 33rd; A: 4th; T2G: 4th; ATG: 26th; P: 25th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: Looking at the same players who finished ahead after 36 holes over the 2 Belgian knockout events, we see some solid recent form trends:

2019, Chris Paisley: 34/24/18/MC/56/24/9/48/57/38/MC/4
2018, Jorge Campillo: 35/27/MC/12/14/MC/2/4/27/5/46/3

Similarly, eventual 2018 winner Adrian Otaegui was also in a rich vein of form coming into this event with 5 consecutive top-20 finishes to his name and a runner-up finish in China behind Alexander Bjork on his previous start, whereas 2019 winner Guido Migliozzi had won the Kenya Open earlier in the season and hadn’t missed a cut since.

Last year’s winner Sam Horsfield had returned from a 3-month absence due to injury the week before his victory, finishing 21^st at the British Masters. Prior to that, 12^th in Abu Dhabi and 4^th in Dubai had signalled some good form in stronger fields:

2022, Sam Horsfield: MC/15/35/64/MC/12/44/9/12/4/WD/21
2019, Guido Migliozzi: MC/MC/56/MC/MC/63/MC/1/41/25/32/35/33
2018, Adrian Otaegui: 12/73/60/42/40/22/39/12/10/12/19/2

Last year’s Soudal Open gives us a few clues as to what to expect here this week, with similar conditions expected which may well lead to a similar winning score. A short course with far less reliance on the par 5s levels the playing field for players of all styles, putting more emphasis on performance from the second shot and in.

My selections are as follows:

Yannik Paul – WD Pre-Event

From the top of the market, I’m going back to the well this week and am backing Yannik Paul once again.

Although ultimately disappointing when we’ve had him on-side at the Indian Open and ISPS Handa Championship this year – the former in particular when he relinquished a 5-stroke halfway lead to Marcel Siem – he has nevertheless been profitable for us when backed and I’m happy to support him once more.

Headline form of 2/2/6/38/23 may hint that he’s already peaked and is on the other side of his form now, however there’s plenty to suggest otherwise if you dip into his numbers. A pair of 68s in South Korea saw the German in pole position heading into the weekend before fading, and he was on the fringes of contention for the first 3 rounds last week in Italy before dropping from 8^th place heading into Sunday to 23^rd in the end.

Statistically those last 2 efforts haven’t quite reached the levels that saw him rank 5^th, 1^st and 2^nd for SG Approach and 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd for SG Tee to Green over that spell of consecutive top-6 finishes, however hitting those heights once again on a course that sets up nicely this week wouldn’t surprise – particularly when you consider he finished in a tie for 2^nd here 12 months ago.

Since that effort here last year, Paul has gone on to claim his maiden DP World Tour title – that came at 15-under in Mallorca on another sub-7,000 yard par 71 parkland layout with Bentgrass greens – and he can be fancied to go close here this week. WD PRE-EVENT

Ashun Wu 1pt EW 60/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

When crunching through the data for last year’s inaugural Soudal Open, one hypothesis I landed upon was a correlation between this week’s venue and Diamond Country Club, home of the Austrian Open/Lyoness Open/Shot Clock Masters in the recent past, which in turn led me to Ashun Wu.

2010 Rinkven winner Lee Slattery has 4th and 9th place finishes to his name at Diamond CC; 2018 winner Adrian Otaegui finished 2nd there in 2016 and runner-up Benjamin Hebert also finished 6th in 2012; 2019 winner Guido Migliozzi hasn’t played Diamond competitively, however runner-up Darius Van Driel was 4th there on debut in 2020.

Last year’s winner Sam Horsfield finished 15^th at Diamond on his one and only visit in 2021, which doesn’t entirely prove the hypothesis but doesn’t blow it out of the water either, and his 69/67 over the weekend was amongst the best final 36 hole scores on the week to suggest he certainly didn’t dislike the track.

All of this bodes well for Wu then, who won the 2016 Lyoness Open at Diamond CC, backing up the promise he’d shown when breaking through at the top level at the Volvo China Open. 2 further DP World Tour wins have followed since at the 2018 KLM Open and at last year’s Magical Kenya Open, and there’s just enough of a hint in his recent form to suggest that another win could come soon and perhaps as early as this week on a course that suits.

Progressive form of 61^st (Japan), 59^th (Korea) and 32^nd (Italy) may not look like the signal for impending success, however 26^th into Sunday in Korea could have been much better with a decent closing round, and take away last week’s Friday 76 – having started the day in 3^rd place – and the Chinese star would have been far closer on Sunday evening.

44^th overall last year did contain one big positive in that Wu topped the field for Strokes Gained putting, so if he can combine that with the positive SG Approach performance (12^th) we saw last week in Italy then he could go close. RESULT: T41

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Daniel van Tonder 1pt EW 70/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

After an indifferent start to 2023 on the DP World Tour, a return back home seems to have done the trick for Daniel van Tonder as he bounced back to form last week in Italy with a 5^th place finish.

I was keen on the South African’s chances here on debut last year before he pulled out pre-event, however my fundamental assertion that this course should suit still remains. The main evidence for this comes from his victory at Karen Country Club in Kenya back in 2021, which is another short, parkland-style course with bentgrass-based putting surfaces.

That victory ties in nicely with 2019 Belgian Knockout winner Guido Migliozzi, who’s also a winner on that same course on the outskirts of Nairobi, which would suggest there’s maybe a little more to link the two results than just the topography and agronomy correlations.

Having recorded a pair of 32^nd place finishes at the SDC Championship and Jonsson Workwear Open co-sanctioned events in March, Danie went on to finish 2^nd at the Limpopo Championship on his next start at Sunshine Tour level to suggest that the hints evident in his long game stats were coming to fruition. 28^th and 18^th followed at the same level before his eye-catching 5^th place finish last week in Italy, where his typically strong long game was backed up crucially by a Strokes Gained positive performance with the putter. RESULT: W/D

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Santiago Tarrio Ben 1pt EW 80/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

At a longer price, a player who caught the eye statistically last week was Santiago Tarrio and he deserves support as an each-way punt.

With the return of shot-tracking technology in Italy, we can categorically say that the Spaniard’s approach and tee-to-green games were in fine form at the Marco Simone, ranking 1^st and 3^rd in terms of Strokes Gained Approach and Tee to Green respectively, with only a relatively cold putter preventing him from finishing higher than his eventual 16^th place. A solid effort nonetheless for the 32 year-old whose 4 wins at lower levels have all come between May and June in the golfing year.

3^rd at the 2021 Hero Open at Fairmont St Andrews and 3^rd this year at the Kenya Open rate as Tarrio’s best finishes on the DP World Tour as he searches for his breakthrough at the top level of European golf, and his effort last week combined with that best result of the season to date at Muthaiga would suggest that this week’s parkland affair isn’t a bad fit whatsoever.

33^rd here last year on course debut came with middling performances with his irons, ranking 29^th and 28^th for SG Approach and SG Tee to Green respectively, which would suggest a significant improvement on that result is distinctly possible if he can pick up where he left off last week with his approach play. RESULT: T50

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