Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Soudal Open Tips 2025

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The DP World Tour hits northern Europe for the first time in 2025 this week, with the Soudal Open kicking off a 3-event stretch before we break again for the US Open. Talking of the US Open, a large number of players from this week’s field were involved in the qualifier on Monday over at Walton Heath – results will be posted here once available.

This is the fourth renewal of the Soudal Open, an event that picked up the reins from the Belgian Knockout which was Belgium’s premier event held here at Rinkven International Golf Club in 2018 & 2019. Whereas the Belgian Knockout was one of the Tour’s forays into new, exciting formats – combining 36 holes of strokeplay with a series of 9-hole knockout matches over the weekend – the Soudal Open is a regular 72 holes of strokeplay with a full field of 156 players.

In what looks to be one of the most open markets so far this year on the DP World Tour, Jordan Smith, Thomas Pieters and Laurie Canter are all available around the 22/1 mark at the top of the market, with the likes of Haotong Li, Eugenio Chacarra and Keita Nakajima just a few points longer.

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Course Overview. The Course at Rinkven is a parkland affair originally designed by Paul Rolin in 1985 and subsequently updated by Martin Hawtree. Some holes are tree-lined whilst others are exposed, however it’s generally a flat, scoreable track.

The layout played is a composite of the North and South courses, measuring 6,940 yards for its par of 71, and is the same routing as we saw in 2022-24 as well as at the Belgian Knockout events hosted here.

The front 9 is slightly longer than the back 9 with a solitary par-5 on both halves, however the short par-4s at the 11th and 16th both generally play easier than the long 17th and present eagle and birdie opportunities to those who were aggressive on those holes. Just 3 par-3s explains the par of 71, with 13 par-4s overall for the players to tackle.

The greens are Poa Annua-based, but overseeded with Bentgrass each year to achieve the desired playing surface of 80% Bentgrass, 20% Poa.

soudal open tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key statistics for this week’s event that will help to shape a view on players who might go well this week.

Course stats include results from the 6 events held here at Rinkven since 2010: Current Form | Course Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats| SG Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Course Winners. Soudal Open: 2024, Nacho Elvira, 100/1;  2023: Simon Forsstrom, 200/1; 2022: Sam Horsfield, 22/1; Belgian Knockout: 2019: Adrian Otaegui; 2018: Guido Migliozzi; Telenet Trophy (Challenge Tour): 2010: Lee Slattery.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

A generally dry 4 days are expected this week with sunny spells at times. With the wind coming from the north, temperatures will be a little subdued for the first couple of days at least at around 12-15 Celsius before it warms a little over the weekend. Wind will be light to moderate, with 10-15mph likely throughout the tournament days.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. The last three Soudal Opens give us a starting point for this week, with the winners producing the following core statistics:

  • 2024: Nacho Elvira (-18). 60% fairways (40th), 76.4% greens in regulation (11th), 76.5% scrambling (18th), 1.60 putts per GIR (5th).
  • 2023: Simon Forsstrom (-17). 53.3% fairways (62nd), 73.6% greens in regulation (16th), 84.2% scrambling (1st), 1.69 putts per GIR (24th).
  • 2022: Sam Horsfield (-13). 46.7% fairways (58th), 70.8% greens in regulation (15th), 81% scrambling (2nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (13th).

Accuracy off the tee didn’t prove pivotal here in any of the renewals, with performance from the second shot and in much more important. With 18-24 a typical number of missed greens on the week for those contending near the top of the leaderboard, the ability to get up and down with regularity seems critical.

Digging beneath the numbers from the two Belgian Knockout events gives us more history to peruse for this week. Analysing the final stats of the top 2 after the 36-hole strokeplay element gives us a little more insight into this test:

  • 2019: Chris Paisley (-12). 66.7 % fairways (16th), 72.2% greens in regulation (42nd), 80.0% scrambling (11th), 1.58 putts per GIR (5th).
  • 2018: Jorge Campillo (-8). 73.3% fairways (1st), 80.6% greens in regulation (5th), 28.6% scrambling (87th), 1.66 putts per GIR (12th).

Looking at the same 36-hole data for the eventual winners gives us another angle:

  • 2019: Guido Migliozzi. 60.0% fairways (34th), 86.1% greens in regulation (2nd), 100% scrambling (1st), 1.77 putts per GIR (64th).
  • 2018: Adrian Otaegui. 60.0% fairways (28th), 69.4% greens in regulation (35th), 54.5% scrambling (25th), 1.76 putts per GIR (50th).

Of course these numbers exclude the Matchplay element so the sample sizes are small, however the requirement to either hit greens or save bogeys when you don’t is at least fairly consistent.

Rinkven GC was also used for the Telenet Trophy on the Challenge Tour in 2010, won by Lee Slattery (final leaderboard is here) with a 21-under total. Although there were 4 par-5s on the course at the time, it was the par-4s that proved pivotal for Slattery 15 years ago as he finished -11 for those holes over the course of the week. Runner-up Edouard Dubois led the field for par-4 scoring at -13 on the week, and although we’re playing a different course routing now, the requirement for par-4 scoring was evident again over the past 3 years:

  • 2024: Nacho Elvira: Par 3, -3; Par 4, -12; Par 5, -3.
  • 2023: Simon Forsstrom: Par 3, Level; Par 4, -14; Par 5, -3.
  • 2022: Sam Horsfield: Par 3, -2; Par 4, -8; Par 5, -3.

Strokes Gained: There’s a similar caveat with the SG numbers that were captured in 2019 only, in that they are from the first 36 holes before the Matchplay element began. Some correlation is evident though with 36-hole leader Chris Paisley ranking 2nd for SG Tee to Green behind eventual winner Guido Migliozzi:

2019 – 36 Hole Leader:

  • 1st, Chris Paisley: T: 45th; A: 4th; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 17th; P: 5th

2019 – Overall Winner:

  • 1st, Guido Migliozzi: T: 1st; A: 35th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 48th; P: 76th

With SG stats captured from all three Soudal Opens, SG Approach and SG Tee to Green were the most consistent metrics, with Forsstrom also excelling Around the Green and Horsfield & Elvira in terms of Putting:

2022-24 – Soudal Opens:

  • 2024, Nacho Elvira: T: 43rd; A: 12th; T2G: 22nd; ATG: 34th; P: 3rd
  • 2023, Simon Forsstrom: T: 38th; A: 13th; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 1st; P: 27th
  • 2022, Sam Horsfield: T: 51st; A: 3rd; T2G: 12th; ATG: 32nd; P: 5th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: Looking at the same players who finished ahead after 36 holes over the 2 Belgian knockout events, we see some solid recent form trends:

  • 2019, Chris Paisley: 34/24/18/MC/56/24/9/48/57/38/MC/4
  • 2018, Jorge Campillo: 35/27/MC/12/14/MC/2/4/27/5/46/3

Similarly, eventual 2018 winner Adrian Otaegui was also in a rich vein of form coming into this event with 5 consecutive top-20 finishes to his name and a runner-up finish in China behind Alexander Bjork on his previous start, whereas 2019 winner Guido Migliozzi had won the Kenya Open earlier in the season and hadn’t missed a cut since.

2022 winner Sam Horsfield had returned from a 3-month absence due to injury the week before his victory, finishing 21st at the British Masters. Prior to that, 12th in Abu Dhabi and 4th in Dubai had signalled some good form in stronger fields. 2023 winner Simon Forsstrom was a little tougher to find, although there were 3 top-10 finishes in his previous 11 starts to encourage punters and a second round 67 the week before in Italy tied the best round of the day.

To complete the picture, last year’s winner Nacho Elvira had finished runner-up at the Kenya Open earlier in the year before recording three humdrum finishes on less conducive courses before winning here 12 months ago:

  • 2024, Nacho Elvira: 3/43/50/28/41/16/MC/13/2/44/51/56
  • 2023, Simon Forsstrom: 29/9/50/MC/4/MC/58/62/8/60/MC/32
  • 2022, Sam Horsfield: MC/15/35/64/MC/12/44/9/12/4/WD/21
  • 2019, Guido Migliozzi: MC/MC/56/MC/MC/63/MC/1/41/25/32/35/33
  • 2018, Adrian Otaegui: 12/73/60/42/40/22/39/12/10/12/19/2

With so many of this week’s field in action on Monday at Walton Heath, fatigue after 36 holes and travel/preparation time for this week’s event from those who were involved could be a factor, although conversely those who showed some form could bring forward momentum with others in this field not having played competitively since before the PGA Championship.

My selections are as follows:

Guido Migliozzi 2pts EW 45/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

The top of the betting market is bunched this week which suggests to me that the bookmakers have little real idea who might win, which leads me to form a slightly more speculative team of mid-price chances.

With US Open qualifying having taken place on Monday, we’ve had an opportunity to gauge how well some of this week’s field are playing before they fly off to Belgium. As I said in my preamble those results can be interpreted in a number of ways, however I cannot ignore the performance of Guido Migliozzi as he returns to the scene of his Belgian Knockout win from 2019 here at Rinkven this week.

That was the Italian’s second win on Tour – his first came at the Magical Kenya Open earlier that year, form that’s a good indicator for this with that year’s venue, Karen Country Club, and its successor Muthaiga both carrying solid form lines to Rinkven – and two more successes have followed since.

Rounds of 68/67 have put Guido on the cusp of US Open qualification as I published this preview, with 11 birdies and 2 eagles a strong enough return on his Monday’s work at Walton Heath to get him the nod here. That effort follows a tie for 17th in Turkey before last week’s PGA Championship, where his irons and scrambling were strong enough for the 28 year-old to record 3 bogey-free rounds on the week.

Guido’s win here in 2019 came courtesy of his performance in the knockout element over the weekend, however suffice it to say that he’ll have fond memories of the course and with his game seemingly in good shape I’m happy to take on the favourites with him this week.

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Frederic Lacroix 1.5pts EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Next up, with Martin Couvra striking a blow for the French contingent on Tour on the last regular DP World Tour event, perhaps his compatriot Frederic Lacroix can take inspiration from that victory and seal a second career victory at this level here in Belgium.

The Paris native has turned 30 since his breakthrough win at the Danish Golf Championship last August and milestone birthdays can have a similar effect on a player’s motivation like other intangible factors such as the birth of children. That aside, that victory in Denmark isn’t a bad barometer for this week’s test at Rinkven, with both courses being short Par 71s with a mix of tree-lined and more exposed holes, with the greens sharing a Bentgrass base at both venues. Lacroix ran out an impressive 4-stroke winner that week, finishing Strokes Gained positive in every category and ranking 2nd for SG Tee to Green.

A best of 13th this season came on his penultimate start at the Indian Open, however it was his 24th place finish in Turkey which really caught the eye. 9th for SG Approach and 8th for SG Tee to Green on the week, Frederic closed with a sublime final round of 63 despite making bogey at his final hole to record the best score of the day.

Finishes of MC/33/34 here at Rinkven don’t tell the whole story as he was 6th after day 1 in 2023 and 11th heading into the weekend last year, and having shot  rounds of 67/68 at Walton Heath on Monday in his quest to qualify for the US Open, it’s fair to say that he’s playing good enough golf to contend here this week.

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Brandon Robinson-Thompson 1.5pts EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

After missing out on Martin Couvra in Turkey last time out, having featured in my staking plan a number of times in 2025 and arriving as he did off the back of a top-5 finish on his previous outing, I won’t make the same mistake with Brandon Robinson-Thompson.

I last backed the Isle of Wight man at the Kenya Open where he finished a disappointing 41st, however results either side of that effort of 8th in Bahrain, 3rd in Qatar and 7th in Johannesburg impressed, and he made another noteworthy effort last time out in Turkey, eventually finishing 4th. A third round 62, which bettered anything that anyone else could muster on the week, propelled him into contention to win his maiden DP World Tour title, and although Sunday didn’t go quite to plan it’s all good experience and he can take that forward to the remainder of this season.

14th for SG Approach, 9th for SG Tee to Green and 2nd for SG Around the Green were the eye-catching stats to come out of his Turkish effort, and from what we’ve seen of the 32 year-old so far it appears that his form comes in clumps. Aside from the results I’ve already mentioned from earlier this season, he recorded finishes of 3/1/6 firstly on the Challenge Tour and then the DP World Tour’s Czech Masters in successive weeks last August. The year before he won 4 times in the space of 2 months at lower levels and would appear to be the type of player who can build positively on his most recent effort on course debut this week.

An opening 4-under round of 68 at Monday’s US Open qualifying at Walton Heath was also positive, although he couldn’t follow that up in the afternoon to take one of the 8 spots in the Oakmont field. Like many, once the chance had gone it was more of a case of downing tools rather than poor form, and he showed just about enough in that first round to suggest he can hit the ground running when he gets to Belgium.

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John Parry 1pt EW 70/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Next in my team and a little further down the betting board this week is John Parry, whose career resurgence at the age of 38 could be complete if he can maintain his position on the Race to Dubai this season and grab himself a PGA Tour card for next year.

Three wins in 2024 on the Challenge Tour paved the way for automatic promotion back to the top level of European golf and the Englishman started his 2024/25 campaign in fine style, finishing runner-up at Leopard Creek in December before winning in Mauritius before the Tour broke up for the festive period. That was Parry’s first win at the upper level since his maiden success at the Vivendi Cup way back in 2010, and he’s shown enough since then to suggest there’s more to come.

21st at the Qatar Masters saw John sit 7th heading into the weekend on that tricky test and he followed that up with a runner-up finish in Kenya where he led to halfway and was ultimately unlucky to run into an inspired Jacques Kruyswijk that week. That form in itself is interesting when you consider that defending champion Nacho Elvira finished in an identical position in Nairobi before winning by a stroke here 12 months ago.

Solid if unspectacular since that effort in Kenya, Parry returned to action in Turkey after 6 weeks off and impressed in patches for his tie for 33rd, in particular with his approach game where he ranked 4th in the field from a Strokes Gained perspective. That’s his bread and butter – he ranks 6th on Tour for the season on that count – and combined with 8th for SG Tee to Green and 14th for Scrambling this year he’s a good fit for this course, and at 4th in the Race To Dubai the incentive is clear for Parry to keep his performance levels high as the season progresses.

A missed cut on PGA Championship debut last week doesn’t concern me given that Quail Hollow isn’t remotely a good fit for John, instead the weekend off will have given him time to regroup and mentally prepare for this week’s task at hand.

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Jacob Skov Olesen 1pt EW 75/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Finally, Martin Couvra’s performance in Turkey was a reminder how talented some of the young rookies are on the DP World Tour, and another who’s impressed enough so far in 2025 to get my support is Jacob Skov Olesen.

The Copenhagen resident made history last year when he became the first Dane to win The Amateur Championship, a feat which earned him a start at last year’s Open Championship where he played well enough to make the cut. The 25 year-old would have qualified for this year’s Masters and US Open too had he remained an amateur, however he clearly has lofty aspirations and chose to turn professional in November having gained a DP World Tour card through Q-School.

9th in Mauritius, 13th in Kenya, 7th in Johannesburg, 8th in China and 12th last time out in Turkey have been flanked by the odd missed cut as he’s got to grips with new courses and countries, however Belgium should be far more familiar to the 25 year-old given its northern European location and the fact that he won the International Juniors of Belgium as a teenager.

32nd for the season for SG Approach and 24th for SG Tee to Green, combined with 34th for Scrambling, tick the initial boxes that I’m looking for ahead of this week, and Jacob performed on all three counts last time out in Turkey ranking 2nd, 5th and 18th on the same three metrics respectively where he closed with an impressive round of 65.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:50BST 19.5.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.