The American Express Tips

My view on the Sony Open in Hawaii last week was that we needed a putter who was hitting greens on the build-up. Naturally I never tipped up one Kevin Na, who for a putter ranked 6th in my 8-week Greens in Regulation tracker! A recent top 3 also seems a pre-requisite year in, year out of a Sony Open winner, and Na had finished T2 at the QBE Shoot Out in late December with partner Sean O’Hair. Well played if you were on Kevin at anything up to 80/1, and it’s worth noting that’s he’s now won across the past 4 seasons at 45/1, 70/1, 70/1 and now 80/1.

Low scoring again is the key this week as the PGA Tour reaches California for The American Express at PGA West. It was latterly known as the Desert Classic or CareerBuilder Challenge, but I’ll always remember this as the Bob Hope Classic. It used to be played over 4 courses and 5 days as a Pro-Am, but that latter aspect has been cancelled for 2021. Instead we’ll see a 156-man field play over the host Pete Dye designed Stadium Course and the Jack Nicklaus designed Tournament Course. Low scoring yet again will be the order of the day and we could well see something similar to Andrew Landry’s total of -26/262 being needed to grab the $1,206,000 first prize and a coveted Masters invite for those who haven’t received a letter through the post recently.

Before we go into the detail surrounding The American Express, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System as the golfing year kicks off. Welcome to you all and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +5,700 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

 2021 Majors Competition Sponsored By bet365:

Following on from the success of the last 9 annual GBS Majors competitions, bet365 have kindly offered to sponsor the 2021 edition once again with a massive £250 CASH prize fund! Our 2021 winner will receive £150 (or currency equivalent) in cash with additional £75 and £25 prizes for 2nd and 3rd place finishers.

Basically we want you to pick a single player for each of the 4 Majors any time before the start of the 2021 Masters and get those 4 names entered into the competition by one of the methods detailed on our rules page here. Best of luck all!

 The American Express – Featured Bookmaker

Betfair Sportsbook are attacking this week’s The American Express, offering an industry best 8 places each-way at 1/5 odds, with strong prices to boot. If you haven’t already got a Betfair Sportsbook account then new customers can access their up to £100 in Free Bets promotion – 18+, T&Cs apply:

Course Guide: Where we see The American Express usually on a unique 3-course rotation, 2021 sees no Pro-Am format in play and the action will be restricted to the PGA West facility – 3 rounds at the TPC Stadium Course (Host Course) and a single Thursday/Friday round at the Nicklaus Tournament course. The tweak in format changes little except for our TV viewing.

This tournament is the ultimate resort course challenge with short Par-72 courses featuring extremely receptive and pure TifDwarf Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis green complexes.

TPC Stadium, PGA West, Palm Springs, California: Designer: Pete Dye, 1986; Course Type: Desert, Resort; Par: 72; Length: 7,147 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 7; Fairways Tifgreen Bermudagrass with Ryegrass; Rough: Tifgreen Bermudagrass with Ryegrass, 2″; Greens: 5,000 sq.ft average featuring TifDwarf Bermudagrass with Poa Trivialis; Stimpmeter: 11ft; Course Scoring Average 2016: 70.82 (-1.18), Difficulty Rank 41 of 50 courses. 2017: 71.59 (-0.41), Difficulty Rank 30 of 50 courses. 2018: 71.18 (-0.82), Difficulty Rank 36 of 51 courses. 2019: 70.24 (-1.76), Difficulty Rank 40 of 49 courses. 2020: 70.36 (-1.64), Difficulty Rank 36 of 41 courses.

Tournament Course, PGA West: Designer: Jack Nicklaus, 1987; Par: 72; Length: 7,181 yards; Greens: TifDwarf Bermudagrass with Poa Trivialis; Tournament Stimp: 10.5ft; Course Scoring Average 2016: 68.94 (-3.06), Difficulty Rank 49 of 50 courses. 2017: 70.74 (-1.26), Difficulty Rank 39 of 50 courses. 2018: 69.45 (-2.55), Difficulty Rank 50 of 51 courses. 2019: 69.06 (-2.94), Difficulty Rank 48 of 49 courses. 2019: 70.24 (-1.76), Difficulty Rank 40 of 49 courses. 2020: 69.24 (-2.77), Difficulty Rank 40 of 41 courses.

Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for TPC Stadium (Host Course) and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:

• TPC Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
• Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
• Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
• Seaside Course: 250 yards from the tee: 42 yards wide; 275:40; 300:34; 325:31; 350:23.
• TPC Summerlin: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:30; 350:31.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus designs include:

Pete Dye:

• Austin Country Club – WGC Dell Matchplay since 2016
• Crooked Stick – 2012 and 2016 BMW Championship
• Harbour Town – RBC Heritage
• Ocean Course – Kiawah Island – 2012 PGA Championship
• TPC River Highlands – The Travelers
• TPC Louisiana – Zurich Classic of New Orleans
• TPC Sawgrass – The Players Championship
• Whistling Straits – 2010 and 2015 PGA Championship

Jack Nicklaus:

• Annandale Golf Club – Sanderson Farms Championship through 2013
• Glen Abbey – RBC Canadian Open – 2008, 2013, 2015-2018
• Montreux Golf & Country Club – Barracuda Championship through 2019
• Muirfield Village – Memorial Tournament
• Old Greenwood GC – Barracuda Championship 2020
• PGA National – Honda Classic
• PGA West – Nicklaus Private – Humana Challenge through 2015
• Sherwood Country Club – Thousand Oaks – World Challenge through 2013
• Valhalla Golf Club – 2014 PGA Championship

Course Overview: Since 2012, this tournament has played a 3-course rota over 72 holes because of the Pro-Am nature of the tournament. Things though have changed in 2021 with no Pro-Am and a 2-course setup. The odd course out is La Quinta Country Club, which sits outside of the PGA West estate, so it’s been cut. TPC Stadium Course and the Nicklaus Tournament Course are the 2 active courses in 2021 and both are known quantities.

2016 saw TPC Stadium Course added to the rota as the host course and the Nicklaus Tournament Course was also added for the very first time. TPC Stadium hosted a round of the Bob Hope Classic back in 1987 and has been home to the PGA Tour Q-School numerous times including 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2012. The Nicklaus-designed Tournament Course shared hosting duties across these Q-Schools as well.

The TPC Stadium host course is a Pete Dye design and is viewed by many as the sequel to the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass. The course features its own island 17th hole which will play as a 165 yard par-3 this week. TPC Stadium will play as a 7,113 yard, Par 72 and has plenty of water in play. With a scoring average of 70.36 in 2020 it had a difficulty rank of 36 of 41 courses on the PGA Tour last season, in comparison to 40th for the Tournament Course. Eagles and birdies are certainly the currency this week.

Statistically TPC Stadium is an interesting course where flagrant power is seemingly negated just a little bit. The par-5s play tough, compared to both the par-3s and par-4s which yield masses of birdies. That comes across in the Going for the Green statistics where TPC Stadium traditionally ranks in the lowest 10 courses on Tour where players were aggressive. Those that go for the green see relatively little success. Brute power alone doesn’t work here – instead crisp wedge play from within 125 yards is critical. Scrambling on the course is easy for these PGA Tour pros and the TifDwarf Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis greens are pure enough that One-Putt Percentages are always some of the very highest on the PGA Tour.

With calm conditions forecast, the Tournament Course (look for Nicklaus course experts) always plays slightly easier than the Stadium Course and is there to be taken apart.

This tournament is a testament to US resort-style golf – go low or go home, it’s that simple. Since 2012 when the tournament moved to a conventional 72-hole format; -24/264, -25/263, -29/259, -22/266, -25/263, -20/268, -22/266, -26/262 and -26/262 have been the winning totals. Birdie or better conversion rates at 36% (2012), 38% (2013), an astonishing 44% (2014 by Patrick Reed), 32% (2015), 42%, 36%, 38%, 36% and 43% last year are traditionally some of the highest we see all year. For reference Andrew Landry made 31 birdies 12 months ago – astonishing.

Winners: 2020: Andrew Landry (-26); 2019: Adam Long (-26); 2018: Jon Rahm (-22); 2017: Hudson Swafford (-20); 2016: Jason Dufner (-25); 2015: Bill Haas (-22); 2014: Patrick Reed (-29); 2013: Brian Gay (-25); 2012: Mark Wilson (-24).

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Kevin Na, Patrick Cantlay, Brendan Steele, Martin Laird, Patton Kizzire, Vaughn Taylor, Russell Henley, Sam Burns, Abraham Ancer and Jason Dufner.

Recent Player Skill Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Houston Open and Cyprus Showdown, which includes PGA Tour and European Tour events. Rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Driving Accuracy: 1) Steve Stricker; 2) Tim Wilkinson; 3) Brian Stuard; 4) Jason Dufner; 5) Abraham Ancer / Ryan Armour / Adam Long; 8) Martin Laird; 9) Keegan Bradley / Austin Cook; 11) Scottie Scheffler; 12) Brice Garnett; 13) Brian Harman / Russell Henley; 15) Matthew NeSmith / Doc Redman / Brandt Snedeker; 18) Vaughn Taylor; 19) Patrick Cantlay / David Hearn; 21) Chris Baker / Michael Thompson / Erik van Rooyen; 24) John Huh; 25) Sam Burns / James Hahn / Sungjae Im.
• Greens in Regulation: 1) Sam Burns; 2) Adam Long; 3) Paul Casey; 4) Abraham Ancer; 5) Cameron Champ; 6) Charles Howell III; 7) Jim Herman; 8) Charley Hoffman; 9) Cameron Tringale; 10) Patrick Cantlay / Kyle Stanley; 12) Matt Jones / Aaron Wise; 14) Emiliano Grillo / Kevin Na / Kevin Streelman; 17) Akshay Bhatia; 18) Zach Johnson / Sepp Straka; 20) Keegan Bradley / Kevin Tway; 22) Matthew NeSmith / J.J. Spaun; 24) Michael Thompson / Erik van Rooyen.
• Scrambling: 1) Patrick Cantlay; 2) Paul Casey; 3) Kevin Na; 4) Adam Long; 5) Patrick Reed; 6) Matthew Wolff; 7) Scott Brown; 8) Josh Teater; 9) Michael Thompson; 10) Brooks Koepka / Troy Merritt; 12) Scott Piercy; 13) Bo Hoag; 14) Nick Taylor; 15) Sungjae Im; 16) Kelly Kraft; 17) Austin Cook / Max Homa / John Huh / Roger Sloan; 21) Chris Baker / Jason Dufner / Russell Henley / Charles Howell III / J.T. Poston / Charl Schwartzel.
• Putting Average (Putts per GIR): 1) Anirban Lahiri; 2) Wyndham Clark / Bill Haas; 4) Patrick Reed; 5) Rickie Fowler; 6) Michael Thompson / Steve Stricker; 8) Patton Kizzire; 9) Max Homa; 10) Scottie Scheffler; 11) Brooks Koepka; 12) John Huh / Alex Noren; 14) Cameron Tringale; 15) Patrick Cantlay; 16) Tony Finau / Matthew Wolff; 18) Kevin Na / Pat Perez; 20) Chris Kirk / Kelly Kraft; 22) K.H. Lee; 23) Joel Dahmen / Martin Trainer; 25) Sam Burns.

Recent Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Houston Open and Cyprus Showdown, which includes PGA Tour and European Tour events. Players rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Sam Burns; 2) Brooks Koepka; 3) Max Homa; 4) Patrick Cantlay; 5) Scottie Scheffler; 6) Joel Dahmen / Tony Finau; 8) Charley Hoffman; 9) Si Woo Kim / Matthew NeSmith; 11) Keegan Bradley; 12) Cameron Champ; 13) Charles Howell III; 14) Doc Redman; 15) Abraham Ancer / Scott Brown / Jim Herman / Vincent Whaley; 19) Patrick Reed; 20) Michael Gligic; 21) Chris Baker; 22) Bronson Burgoon / Sungjae Im; 24) Nick Taylor / Erik van Rooyen.
• Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Sam Burns; 2) Sepp Straka; 3) Adam Long; 4) Keegan Bradley; 5) Cameron Champ; 6) Russell Henley / Brian Stuard; 8) Abraham Ancer; 9) Kevin Na / Patrick Reed; 11) Kyle Stanley / Erik van Rooyen; 13) Charley Hoffman; 14) Joseph Bramlett; 15) Patrick Cantlay / Lanto Griffin / Michael Thompson / Camilo Villegas; 19) Kramer Hickok / Matthew NeSmith; 21) Emiliano Grillo / Cameron Tringale; 23) Will Gordon / Andrew Putnam; 25) Francesco Molinari.
• Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Lucas Glover / Patton Kizzire; 3) Max Homa / Scottie Scheffler; 5) Patrick Reed; 6) Ben Taylor; 7) Kevin Na; 8) Patrick Cantlay; 9) Cameron Champ / Francesco Molinari; 11) Peter Malnati; 12) Russell Henley; 13) Roger Sloan / Aaron Wise; 15) Denny McCarthy / Martin Trainer; 17) Chris Kirk / Brooks Koepka; 19) Brian Harman / Kramer Hickok; 21) Bo Hoag; 22) Tony Finau / Sung Kang; 24) Fabian Gomez; 25) Alex Noren / C.T. Pan.
• Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Sam Burns; 2) Adam Long; 3) Cameron Tringale; 4) Patrick Reed; 5) Russell Henley; 6) Charley Hoffman / Francesco Molinari; 8) Kramer Hickok; 9) Cameron Champ; 10) Keegan Bradley / Patrick Cantlay / Kevin Na; 13) Brooks Koepka; 14) Sepp Straka; 15) Jim Herman / Chris Kirk / Aaron Wise; 18) Brian Stuard / Erik van Rooyen; 20) Max Homa; 21) Scott Brown / Tony Finau; 23) Abraham Ancer / Lucas Glover; 25) Charles Howell III / Roger Sloan.
• Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Chesson Hadley / Brooks Koepka; 3) Patrick Cantlay; 4) Michael Thompson; 5) Josh Teater; 6) Scottie Scheffler; 7) Ryan Brehm; 8) Nelson Ledesma; 9) Francesco Molinari; 10) Austin Cook / Tony Finau / Bill Haas / Beau Hossler / Patton Kizzire; 15) Cameron Percy; 16) Kevin Na; 17) John Huh / Patrick Reed; 19) Zach Johnson / Matt Jones; 21) Joel Dahmen / Brice Garnett / Nick Taylor; 24) Anirban Lahiri / Alex Noren.
• Top 25 SG Total: 1) Brooks Koepka; 2) Sam Burns; 3) Chesson Hadley; 4) Patton Kizzire; 5) Patrick Reed; 6) Patrick Cantlay; 7) Francesco Molinari; 8) Cameron Tringale; 9) Kevin Na / Michael Thompson; 11) Charley Hoffman; 12) Scottie Scheffler; 13) Chris Kirk; 14) Cameron Percy; 15) Russell Henley; 16) Tony Finau; 17) Cameron Champ / John Huh; 19) Erik van Rooyen; 20) Peter Malnati; 21) Aaron Wise; 22) Austin Cook; 23) Abraham Ancer / Joel Dahmen / Sungjae Im.

Winners & Prices: 2020: Andrew Landry 200/1; 2019: Adam Long 600/1; 2018: Rahm 10/1; 2017: Swafford 66/1; 2016: Dufner 40/1; 2015: Haas 30/1; 2014: Reed 135/1; 2013: Gay 80/1; 2012: Wilson 125/1; 2011: Vegas 200/1; 2010: Haas 100/1. Past 7 Renewals Average: 154/1. Overall Average: 144/1.

For a full summary of winner’s odds on the PGA Tour since 2010 click here.

Historical Weather:

• 2020: Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 68. Wind SE at 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 68. Wind NE 4-8 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 72. Wind E 3-6 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 77. Wind ESE 3-6 mph.
• 2019: Thursday: Mostly cloudy and rainy. High of 66. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Due to fog, play at La Quinta Country Club was delayed one hour (9:30 a.m. start) and delayed at the Stadium and Nicklaus Tournament Courses one hour, 15 minutes (9:45 a.m. start). Friday: Sunny. High of 74. Wind NW 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 75. Wind light and variable 4-8 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 74. Wind SE 4-8 mph.
• 2018: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 78. Wind variable 4-8 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 78. Wind variable 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 65. Wind NW 20-30 mph, with gusts to 40 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 66. Wind variable 4-8 mph.
• 2017: Thursday: Overcast, with light morning rain. Mostly sunny in the afternoon, with a high of 64. Wind W 8-15 mph. Friday: Overcast, with intermittent rain throughout the day. High of 61. Wind NE to SSE 8-15 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 63. Wind NW 10-15 mph, with gusts of 25 mph. Sunday: Cloudy, with intermittent rain throughout the day. High of 61. Wind SSE 8-15 mph.
• 2016: Thursday: Clear skies with an afternoon high of 74 degrees. Wind SE 4-8 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 73 degrees. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 71 degrees. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with an afternoon high of 82 degrees. Wind NW 7-15 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for La Quinta, California is here. Weather in the main looks okay for The American Express. Despite little rain in the Californian desert, greens are always watered and responsive here. No rain is expected for tournament week and expect minimal breeze. The only twist could be cold temperatures: 18-20 degrees Celsius on Thursday and Friday fall to a chilly 15 degrees at the weekend.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of winners since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2020, Andrew Landry (-26). 286 yards (61st), 75.0% fairways (3rd), 76.4% greens in regulation (7th), 27’11” proximity to hole (16th), 76.5 % scrambling (25th), 1.46 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2019, Adam Long (-26). 291 yards (28th), 69.6% fairways (12th), 70.8% greens in regulation (41st), 29’5″ proximity to hole (30th), 85.7 % scrambling (7th), 1.51 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2018, Jon Rahm (-22). 310 yards (5th), 64.3% fairways (28th), 72.2% greens in regulation (20th), 328″ proximity to hole (31st), 75.0 % scrambling (21st), 1.56 putts per GIR (8th).
• 2017, Hudson Swafford (-20). 307 yards (5th), 55.4% fairways (61st), 80.6% greens in regulation (1st), 30’2″ proximity to hole (27th), 71.4 % scrambling (30th), 1.66 putts per GIR (24th).
• 2016, Jason Dufner (-25). 290 yards (49th), 75.0% fairways (5th), 75.0% greens in regulation (15th), 30’6″ proximity to hole (20th), 72.2 % scrambling (40th), 1.54 putts per GIR (5th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 30th, Driving Accuracy: 22nd, Greens in Regulation: 17th, Proximity to Hole: 25th, Scrambling: 25th, Putting Average 8th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:

• 2020, Andrew Landry (-26). SG Off the Tee: 5th, SG Approach: 9th, SG Around the Green: 65th, SG Tee to Green: 13th, SG Putting: 6th.
• 2019, Adam Long (-26). SG Off the Tee: 40th, SG Approach: 43rd, SG Around the Green: 30th, SG Tee to Green: 46th, SG Putting: 9th.
• 2018, Jon Rahm (-22). SG Off the Tee: 4th, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 60th, SG Tee to Green: 12th, SG Putting: 28th.
• 2017, Hudson Swafford (-20). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 5th, SG Around the Green: 71st, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 44th.
• 2016, Jason Dufner (-25). SG Off the Tee: 26th, SG Approach: 42nd, SG Around the Green: 8th, SG Tee to Green: 23rd, SG Putting: 14th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

• SG Off the Tee: 15th, SG Approach: 21st, SG Around the Green: 47th, SG Tee to Green: 20th, SG Putting: 20th.

So let’s take a view from players as to how the American Express sets up with the Stadium Course as host plus what skill sets the course favours:

Andrew Landry (Nicklaus Course): “I like that atmosphere over there, there’s some good holes, there’s some mediocre holes, you just got to drive the ball well out there, you got to hit your irons very well out there and you got to play smart, because there’s some par-5s out there that can jump up and bite you if you’re not playing smart. So we got a good game plan for it, we played well there in the past, and now we’ll see what happens tomorrow.

The key to this week has been good putting. I’ve been putting the ball absolutely beautifully and just kind of everything’s been there, my wedge play has been there, I hit some really good wedges. I went to a 54 degree this week instead of a playing a 52, 60 and it’s just kind of given me that 105 to 115 number just a lot better. And I’ve had it three or four times and I’ve hit every one of them gimmie. So the wedges are there, the putting’s there, just need to go out and go do it again tomorrow.”

Adam Long: “I had some pretty good hopes, I guess, because I played well in my practice rounds and made a lot of birdies and felt pretty good leading up to Thursday, so I would have been surprised had I not had a good start. But yeah, it’s three awesome golf courses and you hit fairways and greens and you can make a lot of putts because these greens on all three courses are just perfect. So you can make them from all over. I played here for Q-School in 2011, so, yeah, it’s been a bit. I think a junior tournament too before that. But been here a few times, but it’s a great place to play golf and, yeah, I’ve had good mojo here and hope to keep it going.”

Jon Rahm: “This area, the courses are always in really, really good shape, so it’s tough to pick one. But just because I’m familiar with it I would say the Nicklaus, just because I played it, I mean, this would be about my ninth round on this golf course, so I know it pretty good. But again, I feel like any other person, when you have a good day, any course is fit for you. It’s about making good shots. Well, yeah, I mean I’ve been living in this area for five years and most of the college tournaments we played was around here, so exactly, we played here – we played the Norman course as well – I’m just familiar with this type of golf course.

The Stadium Course, it’s a Pete Dye design, where I played four years of my life, it’s a Pete Dye design. Very, very similar type of golf. You need to hit it a lot more accurate off the tee because being in the fairway is a lot more important. With the small greens, you have water in play, you need to be more precise, clearly the hardest golf course. If you can have 5- or 6-under there you’re going to pick up a lot of shots. So hopefully have an organized round like I did yesterday, not have to fight too much to shoot under par.”

Hudson Swafford (TPC Stadium): “Absolutely, yeah, no, this is a tough golf course. When you come to the desert, all you think is birdies, usually the scores yield birdies. But this Stadium Course has kind of changed that. I know there is a lot of good rounds out here, but one errant shot, it’s very penalizing. So you got to be super patient on this golf course.”

Jason Dufner: “I came out before I went to Sony and played these golf courses, both of them, twice. Spent some time out here practicing and playing. So I felt good. We have had some great weather, obviously that helps. The courses are in great shape. So I’m pretty comfortable right now.

The Stadium Course, it’s a difficult golf course. There’s a little bit of room to play off the tee, in my opinion, but if you get off the path a little bit, you can get into some trouble. He’s got some water out there, he’s got some tricky bunkers, you get some uneven lies here and there. The greens kind are difficult. They run on some angles and there’s some slope. So it’s definitely the most difficult of the courses we have played here in the desert area. But today it just was one of those days, but I had a wedge in my hand. So just be aggressive. I know that, if I miss, it’s a soft fade to the right, so I can manage that.”

Kevin Na: “It’s quite a bit of a change. The Nicklaus, no. But the Stadium, yes. We get to play these courses every year and you get comfortable. You don’t even have to have play a practice round, you just want to go out and – we’re playing holes just to see how the course is playing, how it’s bouncing, the firmness or the wetness, whatever the rough might be. But it’s a big change. I think the Stadium’s going to play a lot more difficult than the Palmer Course, in my opinion. But the Nicklaus Course will be about the same.”

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the 5 winners since the tournament moved to the current course rota – Stadium/Tournament plus previous to this year La Quinta:

• 2020 – Andrew Landry: Round 1: 6th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2019 – Adam Long: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 11th, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2018 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 4th.
• 2017 – Hudson Swafford: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2016 – Jason Dufner: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the 5 winners since the tournament moved to the current course rota – Stadium/Tournament plus previous to this year La Quinta – and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:

• 2020 – Andrew Landry: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: level.
• 2019 – Adam Long: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 6 back, Round 3: 3 back.
• 2018 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 1 ahead, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2017 – Hudson Swafford: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2016 – Jason Dufner: Round 1: level, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 2 ahead.

Form of winners since 2016:

• Andrew Landry: MC Sony/MC RSM/MC Mayakoba/MC Houston.
• Adam Long: MC Sony/MC RSM/MC Sanderson/63rd Safeway.
• Jon Rahm: 2nd ToC/1st DPWTC/36th HSBC/MC Valderrama.
• Hudson Swafford: 13th Sony/36th RSM/46th Mayakoba/23rd HSBC/29th CIMB.
• Jason Dufner: 9th Sony/1st Shark Shoot/9th RSM/40th Mayakoba.

Due to local COVID-19 circumstances, the tournament will be conducted without traditional Pro-Am format and contested on PGA West’s Stadium Course (host) and the Nicklaus Tournament Course.

Course Rotation since 2016:

• 2020 – Andrew Landry: Round 1: Stadium; Round 2: La Quinta; Round 3: Tournament.
• 2019 – Adam Long: Round 1: Tournament; Round 2: Stadium; Round 3: La Quinta.
• 2018 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: La Quinta; Round 2: Tournament; Round 3: Stadium.
• 2017 – Hudson Swafford: Round 1: La Quinta; Round 2: Tournament; Round 3: Stadium.
• 2016 – Jason Dufner Round 1: Tournament; Round 2: Stadium; Round 3: La Quinta.

5 of the last 9 winners, namely Jason Dufner, Bill Haas, Patrick Reed, Brian Gay and Mark Wilson, had all won PGA Tour titles on Bermudagrass greens prior to capturing the title here in La Quinta. Jon Rahm extends that trend to a degree, on the basis he’d won the DP Tour Championship on the European Tour at the Earth Course in November 2017, prior to winning this in January 2018.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 4 – Brian Gay, Bill Haas, Zach Johnson, Patrick Reed.
• 3 – Brandt Snedeker, Camilo Villegas.
• 2 – Paul Casey, Luke Donald, Jason Dufner, Rickie Fowler, Fabian Gomez, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Chris Kirk, Phil Mickelson, Scott Piercy, Jimmy Walker, Mark Wilson.
• 1 – Ryan Armour, Aaron Baddeley, Keegan Bradley, Cameron Champ, Austin Cook, Tyler Duncan, Branden Grace, Lanto Griffin, Adam Hadwin, James Hahn, Jim Herman, Max Homa, Charles Howell III, Sungjae Im, Patton Kizzire, Satoshi Kodaira, Brooks Koepka, Martin Laird, Andrew Landry, Adam Long, Peter Malnati, Francesco Molinari, Sebastian Munoz, Grayson Murray, Seung-yul Noh, Sean O’Hair, C.T. Pan, Pat Perez, J.T. Poston, Rory Sabbatini, Charl Schwartzel, Scott Stallings, Kevin Streelman, Steve Stricker, Brian Stuard, Hudson Swafford, Nick Taylor, Michael Thompson, D.J. Trahan, Nick Watney, Gary Woodland.

Recent champions here include Vegas and Long (both Tour Rookies); Swafford, Perez, Hoffman (all 1st time PGA Tour winners); Trahan, Reed and defending champion Landry (1 Win at the time); Campbell (2 Wins); with Dufner, Gay (3 Wins) plus Wilson (4 wins). Bill Haas has won this title in both 2010 and 2015, being his 1st and 6th PGA Tour titles. The very elite Jon Rahm won this in 2018 – he had won 3 main Tour victories in 2017, one of which was a PGA Tour victory at Torrey Pines. Pick the bones from that little lot!

The plot thickens further when you look at the circumstances prior to victories for recent winners. Defending champion Andrew Landry had inbound form of MC/MC/MC/MC/MC before winning here 12 months ago. Out of 6 seasonal outings, he had a single 23rd to his name. Course form lovers could have plucked out a 2nd place finish here 2 years earlier where he lost in a play-off to Jon Rahm, but let’s be frank – Landry was a find and a half.

Then we have Adam Long, who was a 600/1 prior to winning this. In 4 previous starts on the PGA Tour he had 3 Missed Cuts and a 63rd to his name. Again pick the bones from that! Rahm in 2018 had finished 2nd at Kapalua 2 weeks before winning this tournament. Hudson Swafford in 2017 finished 13th the week before at Waialae – he had been T3 after 54 holes. 2016 saw Jason Dufner win this after another showing the week before at Waialae. He ultimately finished 9th at the Sony Open, and had been 6th after 54 holes. He had also won the Franklin Templeton Shoot Out in late December with Brandt Snedeker.

So what’s the right recipe for success this week? In all honesty it’s very hard to gauge, as it would be at a tournament where the average winning price over the past 7 renewals has been 154/1 and where the past 3 winners have been 200/1, 600/1 and the 10/1 Favourite. If previous renewals are anything to go by then all types of player can thrive here, both the long bomber, accurate ball-striker and a player who has a career-breaking week with the putter.

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 06:45GMT 19.1.21 but naturally subject to fluctuation.