The Open FRL Tips 2025

For full FRL stats for the 2025 Open with tee times added click here.

The First Round Leader (FRL) market is fascinating given there are many ways to review the data to hand, especially at the Open Championship which uses a course rota system.

How does the weather forecast impact conditions? Will it be softer earlier, windier for some, warmer for others? What tee times have the recent FRL winners had? Have the recent FRL winners started well in an Open Championship in the past? Have the recent FRL winners started well in their recent events; have they even been playing well in recent events?

Lots of questions and the odd red herring along the way I’m sure, however I think there are a few factors to consider which might help point us in the right direction.

First up the weather: Met Office | BBC Forecast

Both forecasts suggest a day of sunshine and showers with temperatures picking up to around 20 Centigrade / 68 Fahrenheit in the afternoon. The breeze will be at its strongest just after lunchtime at around 14mph before there’s a hint that it drops away a little, although this is coastal golf and all of that could change in the next 24 hours of course.

Going back to 2012 and Royal Lytham, 16 players have shared the First Round Leader market spoils over 12 renewals and 11 of those 16 players teed off in the morning. Although that’s hardly a representative sample size, it does however tell a story about course conditions plus more receptive greens for the early starters. But as Phil Mickelson, Matt Kuchar, JB Holmes, Emiliano Grillo and Dan Brown proved in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2023 and 2024 respectively, late starters can start fast, especially if a weather window appears.

FRL market winners since 2012 are listed below, beginning with the AM starters:

AM

• 07:52 – 2018: Carnoustie, Kevin Kisner
• 07:52 – 2023: Hoylake, Christo Lamprecht
• 08:25 – 2022: St Andrews, Cameron Young
• 08:42 – 2012: Royal Lytham, Adam Scott
• 09:26 – 2014: Hoylake, Rory McIlroy
• 09:33 – 2015: St Andrews, Dustin Johnson
• 09:47 – 2017: Royal Birkdale, Jordan Spieth
• 09:47 – 2023: Hoylake, Tommy Fleetwood
• 09:58 – 2021: Royal St George’s, Louis Oosthuizen
• 10:06 – 2013: Muirfield, Zach Johnson
• 10:09 – 2017: Royal Birkdale, Brooks Koepka

PM

• 13:26 – 2016: Royal Troon, Phil Mickelson
• 13:26 – 2023: Hoylake, Emiliano Grillo
• 13:37 – 2017: Royal Birkdale, Matt Kuchar
• 14:26 – 2019: Royal Portrush, JB Holmes
• 16:16 – 2024: Royal Troon, Daniel Brown

If we look back at 2019 when The Open last visited Royal Portrush, JB Holmes got off to a flying start by shooting 66 from an afternoon tee time, surpassing the 67 that eventual winner Shane Lowry had carded earlier in the day. 13 players then shot 68 from a variety of starting times:

• 1^st. JB Holmes, 66: 14:26
• 2^nd, Shane Lowry, 67: 07:52

2025 First Round Leader Bookmaker Open Championship Promotions

First Round Leader punters often get forgotten about by the bookmakers, but that certainly isn’t the case at the 2025 Open Championship.

7 Places Each-Way at 1/5 Odds

Unibet have gone 7 places each-way at 1/5 odds across Thursday’s opening round action, so do check their odds before placing your bets. Their latest new customer offers is as follows:

For me there’s not a massive amount in it if we’re looking for any draw bias with the middle part of the day forecast to get the strongest of the wind, so I’ve gone with one of the earlier starters balanced by one of the later starters:

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 07:05BST 16.7.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.