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Paul Williams' The Open FRL Tips 2026
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For full FRL stats for the 2026 Open with tee times added click here.
The First Round Leader (FRL) market is fascinating given there are many ways to review the data to hand, especially at the Open Championship which uses a course rota system.
How does the weather forecast impact conditions? Will it be softer earlier, windier for some, warmer for others? What tee times have the recent FRL winners had? Have the recent FRL winners started well in an Open Championship in the past? Have the recent FRL winners started well in their recent events; have they even been playing well in recent events?
Lots of questions and the odd red herring along the way I’m sure, however I think there are a few factors to consider which might help point us in the right direction.
First up the weather: BBC Forecast
The UK’s recent heatwave may well be starting to relent by the time this year’s Open has concluded on Sunday, but that will simply mean it won’t be quite so hot and humid. Dry, sunny conditions are expected throughout with winds in the 8-12mph region so the course will continue to bake under the July sunshine. Temperatures will dip from 25 Centigrade on Thursday (77 Fahrenheit) to 22/72 on Sunday, however it will still be shirt sleeves and factor 50 all week long.
Going back to 2012 and Royal Lytham, 21 players have shared the First Round Leader market spoils over 13 renewals and 14 of those players teed off in the morning. Although that’s hardly a representative sample size, it does however tell a story about course conditions plus more receptive greens for the early starters.
Last year was mixed with 5 players tying the lead after day 1, 3 from the morning and 2 from the afternoon wave, although that would have been different if Jacob Skov Olesen hadn’t bogeyed the 18th hole from a 7.08 tee time.
FRL market winners since 2012 are listed below, beginning with the AM starters:
AM
- 07:08 – 2025: Royal Birkdale, Jacob Skov Olesen
- 07:41 – 2025: Royal Birkdale, Haotong Li
- 07:52 – 2018: Carnoustie, Kevin Kisner
- 07:52 – 2023: Hoylake, Christo Lamprecht
- 08:25 – 2022: St Andrews, Cameron Young
- 08:42 – 2012: Royal Lytham, Adam Scott
- 09:25 – 2025: Royal Birkdale, Matt Fitzpatrick
- 09:26 – 2014: Hoylake, Rory McIlroy
- 09:33 – 2015: St Andrews, Dustin Johnson
- 09:47 – 2017: Royal Birkdale, Jordan Spieth
- 09:47 – 2023: Hoylake, Tommy Fleetwood
- 09:58 – 2021: Royal St George’s, Louis Oosthuizen
- 10:06 – 2013: Muirfield, Zach Johnson
- 10:09 – 2017: Royal Birkdale, Brooks Koepka
PM
- 13:26 – 2016: Royal Troon, Phil Mickelson
- 13:26 – 2023: Hoylake, Emiliano Grillo
- 13:37 – 2017: Royal Birkdale, Matt Kuchar
- 13:37 – 2025: Royal Birkdale, Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- 14:26 – 2019: Royal Portrush, JB Holmes
- 15:21 – 2025: Royal Birkdale, Harris English
- 16:16 – 2024: Royal Troon, Daniel Brown
If we look back at 2017 when The Open last visited Royal Birkdale, Jordan Spieth and Brooks Koepka shot 65 from morning tee times on the Thursday, with Matt Kuchar matching that score later in the afternoon:
- 09:47 – 2017: Royal Birkdale, Jordan Spieth
- 10:09 – 2017: Royal Birkdale, Brooks Koepka
- 13:37 – 2017: Royal Birkdale, Matt Kuchar
For me, history slightly favours the early starters and with a baked out Royal Birkdale being presented to the players this week, any moisture will likely be reserved for the morning wave with the greens firming as the sunshine beats down. To that end I’ve backed two from the morning wave:
Viktor Hovland 1pt EW 45/1 (5EW, 1/4) with bet365
- Open Starts: 5
- Open FRL Best: 5th (2022)
- Open FRL Top-7s: 1
- Last 8 Event FRL Form: 2/60/20/105/55/120/8/27
- Tee Time: 9.36am
I’ve backed Viktor Hovland in my outright selections and if he’s going to seriously contend this week then getting off to a fast start would help his cause.
The Norwegian’s been stringing low rounds together recently which makes Sunday’s closing 64 at Renaissance of interest, a round which tied the low score of the day and included over 100 feet of putts made. 64/65 to open at the RBC Heritage is one such example of him doubling up good rounds, as was his closing 64/65 at the RBC Canadian Open last month where he tied for 3rd. Victory at the Travelers Championship included middle rounds of 61/64 and hopefully he can take the momentum from Sunday’s round and hit the ground running here in Southport.
5th after day 1 at the 2022 is Viktor’s best opening effort at the Open – he went on to co-lead into the final day before eventually finishing 4th – however he does have FRL history at the Majors in general, leading the 2023 Masters with an opening 65 plus he’s sat 2nd and 6th after day 1 at the US PGA Championship.
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Russell Henley 1pt EW 55/1 (5EW, 1/4) with bet365
- Open Starts: 10
- Open FRL Best: 4th (2024)
- Open FRL Top-7s: 1
- Last 6 Event FRL Form: 33/20/37/67/19/23/17/14
- Tee Time: 9.36am
In the same 9.36am group as Hovland, I’m also backing Russell Henley to get off to a fast start, as he’s done many a time in his career. For reference the third member of the group is Justin Rose who’s also another with a strong Thursday record at the Majors, so hopefully the group can feed off of each other’s momentum.
Henley was one of the early Monday market movers as punters began putting together the firm and fast conditions emerging from Royal Birkdale and an event record that’s seen him finish 5th and 10th over the past two years. The 37 year-old was 4th after the opening 18 holes in the first of those efforts in 2024 to offer further encouragement for this bet.
Victory at Colonial in May combined with a 3rd place finish at The Masters has seen Russell maintain his top-5 OWGR position from the start of the year, and he comes into this week with some positive momentum having closed The Travelers with rounds of 65/64 for a tie for 12th last time out.
11 career FRLs from a little over 320 professional starts puts his strike rate well ahead of his odds this week, and within those first round leads we have two at Major Championship level at the 2018 and 2021 US Opens, so getting off to a quick start on the biggest of stages doesn’t seem to be an issue for the Georgia man who also led last year’s Tour Championship with a sparkling opening round of 61.
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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 07:00BST 15.7.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.