Paul Williams

Paul Williams' The Open Tips 2026

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Stats Pages For The 2026 Open:

 

The very best players in world golf are being joined at Royal Birkdale this week by those who’ve qualified through the many and varied routes, as 156 hopefuls battle to win the Claret Jug and the title of Champion Golfer of the Year in what’s sure to be an enthralling 4 days on the Merseyside links.

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With a top-class field comes an intriguing betting market, with world number 1 Scottie Scheffler rating as the 15/2 favourite at the time of writing despite not having played his very best golf so far in 2026. Rory McIlroy follows behind at 17/2 with Matt Fitzpatrick and local hero Tommy Fleetwood at around 16/1 before the prices begin to lengthen into the 20/1 and beyond range.

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The 2026 Open Championship looks to be the most competitive Major Championship that we have ever seen. Additional each-way place hunters are spoilt for choice, and we’ve never seen so many additional each-way places offered at a Major.

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You can read Liam Williams’ Power Rankings for The Open at bet365 News.

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Royal Birkdale Golf Club, Southport, Merseyside: Designer: Frederick G. Hawtree & J.H. Taylor, with Martin Hawtree 1993, plus Mackenzie & Ebert 2023-2025 renovations; Course Type: Coastal Links, Medium Length; Par: 70; Length: 7,223 yards; Number of Holes Water is in Play: 1; Number of Sand Bunkers: 110; Acres of Fairway: 29; Fairways: Fescue with Browntop Bentgrass; Rough: Fine Fescue + Buckthorn/Dwarf Willow – Semi – 1.4”, Primary 2.75 – 3”; Greens: 6,000 sq.ft average featuring A1/A4 Creeping Bentgrass, Fine Fescue and Poa Annua mix.

The Open Championship is always a stern test of any golfer, but Royal Birkdale is regarded as the fairest test on the Open course rota. Yes the Open’s 1998 and 2008 visits to Southport saw over par champions in Mark O’Meara and Padraig Harrington. But those Open Championships saw some of the worst weather of any renewals.

Ian Baker-Finch won the title in 1991 with a -8/262 total, whereas Jordan Spieth in the latest 2017 renewal took the Claret Jug back to Texas after a -12/268 score. That 2017 championship was famous for Branden Grace becoming the first man to shoot 62 in a Major, achieving the feat on the Saturday on a soft golf course with minimal wind.

Birkdale links sets its stall out from the start with perhaps the most demanding Open rota 1st hole, but difficultly is a total marriage with the local weather conditions.In terms of Royal Birkdale in 2026, the course has received a Mackenzie & Ebert renovation which took place over 2023 and 2025. It’s been extended out to a circa 7,220 yard, Par 70, up 70-odd yards from 2017. In reality it’s a medium length test which features a 34-36 split, where the players’ first look at a par-5 is the 14th hole.

For a full breakdown of the course, changes since The Open last visited, and player quotes from the 2017 Open Championship hosted here, read Steve Bamford’s pre-event trends article.

open championship tips

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Open Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats | Recent Majors Stats.

Predictor Model: Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Winners & Prices: 2025, Scottie Scheffler, 5/1; 2024, Xander Schauffele, 14/1; 2023: Brian Harman, 125/1; 2022: Cameron Smith, 28/1; 2021: Collin Morikawa, 40/1; 2019: Shane Lowry: 70/1; 2018: Francesco Molinari, 33/1; 2017: Jordan Spieth, 16/1; 2016: Henrik Stenson, 33/1; 2015: Zach Johnson, 110/1; 2014: Rory McIlroy, 18/1; 2013, Phil Mickelson, 20/1; 2012: Ernie Els, 45/1; 2011: Darren Clarke, 200/1; 2010: Louis Oosthuizen, 250/1.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

The glorious hot and sunny conditions in England will continue right up to the start of this year’s tournament, with Thursday promising sunshine and temperatures approaching 80 Fahrenheit. It will cool a little from there with highs of 73 Fahrenheit over the weekend, however any showers will be negligible in terms of their impact on the course. Wind will be mostly light at around 10mph throughout.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Let’s take the final skill statistics from Padraig Harrington and Jordan Spieth from the latest 2008 and 2017 Open Championships held at Royal Birkdale. There was no Strokes Gained data back then of course. This gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2017, Jordan Spieth (-12). 295 yards (44th), 42.9% fairways (59th), 69.4% greens in regulation (3rd), 72.7 % scrambling (4th), 1.72 putts per GIR (10th).
  • 2008, Padraig Harrington (+3). 292 yards (45th), 51.8% fairways (37th), 52.8% greens in regulation (30th), 49.6 % scrambling (13th), 1.66 putts per GIR (4th).

Statistics don’t always highlight the full story, especially at an Open Championship, and traditional non-Strokes Gained stats are pretty blunt. But the last two Champions here were controlled off the tee in terms of their driving distance but not accurate. Scrambling and putting were where both Harrington and Spieth excelled, as did Matt Kuchar who was runner-up in 2017.

Recent Form: Going back to the Open held at St Andrews in 2010, each of the 15 players who’ve lifted the Claret Jug have had some contending form in the recent past. Each of the winners had a top-3 finish or better in their last 8 starts, and if you take the past 8 Open victors in isolation, each of them had a win or 2nd place finish in one of their past 9 outings.

Last 10 event form of Open Championship winners since 2010 reads as follows (most recent result on the right):

  • 2025, Scottie Scheffler: 2/4/8/1/1/4/1/7/6/8
  • 2024, Xander Schauffele: 2/5/8/18/2/1/8/7/13/15
  • 2023, Brian Harman: MC/7/MC/MC/29/MC/43/2/9/12
  • 2022, Cameron Smith: 33/1/3/MC/21/13/13/48/MC/10
  • 2021, Collin Morikawa: 1/41/56/18/7/8/14/2/4/71
  • 2019, Shane Lowry: 62/MC/MC/24/MC/3/8/2/28/34
  • 2018, Francesco Molinari: 17/20/49/16/MC/1/2/25/1/2
  • 2017, Jordan Spieth: 12/30/MC/11/MC/MC/2/13/35/1
  • 2016, Henrik Stenson: 11/3/2/24/MC/MC/4/WD/1/13
  • 2015, Zach Johnson: 20/9/MC/17/13/19/5/72/6/3
  • 2014: Rory McIlroy: 25/7/8/8/6/1/15/23/MC/14
  • 2013: Phil Mickelson: 3/MC/16/54/3/MC/2/2/MC/1
  • 2012: Ernie Els: 4/12/MC/2/MC/41/7/58/9/52
  • 2011: Darren Clarke: 12/48/MC/77/1/45/63/46/MC/66
  • 2010: Louis Oosthuizen: 3/44/2/1/MC/MC/21/20/MC/MC

The other point to note here are the finishes of our last four winners who all played the Scottish Open the week before lifting the Claret Jug. Cam Smith finished 10th at Renaissance, Brian Harman finished 12th, Xander finished 15th, and Scottie Scheffler finished 8th on the North Berwick links last year.

For current form stats for this week’s field click here.

2026 Victory: Going back to the start of the century, 18 of the 25 Open Championship winners had already won an event of some description in that calendar year to date, so siding with players who have already tasted success in 2026 may not be a bad ploy.

For reference they were: Tiger Woods (00, 05, 06), Ernie Els (02), Todd Hamilton (04), Padraig Harrington (07), Louis Oosthuizen (10), Darren Clarke (11), Phil Mickelson (13), Rory McIlroy (14), Henrik Stenson (16), Jordan Spieth (17), Francesco Molinari (18), Shane Lowry (19), Collin Morikawa (21), Cameron Smith (22), Xander Schauffele (24) and Scottie Scheffler (25).

Open Championship Record: Positive previous Open Championship performances have also been a factor when you look through the history of the most recent winners of golf’s oldest Major.

12 of the last 15 Open Champions had all previously secured at least a top-10 in this event in their careers – the exceptions to that rule being Louis Oosthuizen’s win at St Andrews in 2010, Collin Morikawa who won at Royal St George’s on debut in 2021, and Cameron Smith in 2022 at St Andrews.

Smith’s record could and perhaps should have been much better though, having sat in 5th place after 36 holes in 2019 and 9th after 54 holes in 2021, before getting it right over the weekend 4 years ago.

Brian Harman restored the trend in 2023 having finished 6th at St Andrews the year before and continuing a sequence of improving performances at The Open, Xander built on a solid Open record in 2024 which included runner-up to Francesco Molinari at Carnoustie in 2018, and Scottie Scheffler had recorded two top-10s at The Open before capturing the Claret Jug for the first time last year:

  • 2025, Scottie Scheffler: 8/21/23/7
  • 2024, Xander Schauffele: 20/2/41/26/15/17
  • 2023, Brian Harman: 26/MC/MC/MC/MC/19/6
  • 2022, Cameron Smith: MC/78/20/33
  • 2021, Collin Morikawa: Debut
  • 2019, Shane Lowry: 37/32/9/MC/MC/MC/MC
  • 2018, Francesco Molinari: MC/13/MC/MC/39/9/15/40/36/MC
  • 2017, Jordan Spieth: 44/36/4/30
  • 2016, Henrik Stenson: MC/34/48/MC/3/13/3/68/2/39/40
  • 2015, Zach Johnson: MC/MC/MC/20/51/47/76/16/9/6/47
  • 2014: Rory McIlroy: 42/47/3/25/60/MC
  • 2013: Phil Mickelson: 41/24/76/MC/11/30/66/59/3/60/22/MC/19/48/2/MC
  • 2012: Ernie Els: 2/10/28/24/2/3/1/18/2/34/3/4/7/8/MC/MC
  • 2011: Darren Clarke: 11/2/MC/30/7/3/37/59/11/15/MC/MC/52/44
  • 2010: Louis Oosthuizen: MC/MC/MC

For event history stats for this week’s field click here.

Recent Majors Form: One aspect that we’ve discussed on the Golf Betting System Podcast when previewing The Open over the years is the growing and consistent trend that recent Open Champions have recorded a top-25 finish in one of their previous 4 Major starts, and in the case of the last 8 Open winners, a top-11 finish.

Last 4 Majors of Open winners:

  • 2025, Scottie Scheffler: 1/2/14/4
  • 2024, Xander Schauffele: 17/8/1/7
  • 2023, Brian Harman: 6/MC/MC/43
  • 2022, Cameron Smith: 33/3/13/MC
  • 2021, Collin Morikawa: MC/18/8/4
  • 2019, Shane Lowry: 12/MC/8/28
  • 2018, Francesco Molinari: MC/2/20/25
  • 2017, Jordan Spieth: 30/13/11/35
  • 2016, Henrik Stenson: 40/25/24/WD
  • 2015, Zach Johnson: 47/69/9/72
  • 2014: Rory McIlroy: MC/8/8/23
  • 2013: Phil Mickelson: MC/36/54/2
  • 2012: Ernie Els: MC/MC/-/9

Logically this makes a level of sense as players who have found themselves in and around the top end of a Major leaderboard in recent times may well take that experience forward and build on it when the chance arises at The Open.

For recent Major Championship form for this week’s field click here.

OWGR Ranking Of Winners: It’s also interesting to note that only two players since 2000 have won The Open whilst ranking outside of the world’s top-55 when entering this week: Ben Curtis in 2003 and Darren Clarke in 2011 were the two to achieve this.

Taking this another step further, every Open Champion since Clarke’s win has ranked inside the OWGR top 40 at the time:

  • 2025, Scottie Scheffler: 1st
  • 2024, Xander Schauffele: 3rd
  • 2023, Brian Harman: 26th
  • 2022, Cameron Smith: 6th
  • 2021, Collin Morikawa: 4th
  • 2019, Shane Lowry: 33rd
  • 2018, Francesco Molinari: 15th
  • 2017, Jordan Spieth: 3rd
  • 2016, Henrik Stenson: 6th
  • 2015, Zach Johnson: 25th
  • 2014, Rory McIlroy: 8th
  • 2013, Phil Mickelson: 6th
  • 2012, Ernie Els: 40th

Of course there’s the LIV factor to consider given that those players haven’t had the same level of opportunities to gather OWGR points over the last two years, however the history to this point is pretty indisputable.

The performance of Jordan Spieth in 2017 and his eventual winning score of 12-under was achieved in far more receptive conditions, and with this year’s renewal promising to be far firmer and faster, I can’t see the players getting so deep in terms of scoring this time around.

My 2026 Open Championship Selections Are As Follows:

Rory McIlroy 5pts Win Only 17/2 with SpreadEx

I’ll level with you all here, I’d seen enough after Thursday’s and Friday’s rounds at Renaissance to convince me that Rory McIlroy was the most likely winner of this year’s Open.9-under through the first two days having not played competitively since the US Open was encouraging not only for his fans but for the Northern Irishman himself no doubt, who’d hinted before the event that his appearance at Renaissance was more about getting a scorecard in his pocket and some rust out of his system than an assault on the Scottish Open title.

A third round 73 with some less impressive approach play effectively took him out of the equation and may have put some punters off backing him for this week, however when he tapped the accelerator on Sunday he’d have liked what he saw, rattling off 8 birdies in a round of 64 that catapulted him up into a tie for 7th.

In comparison, Scottie Scheffler missed his first cut since 2022 and simply hasn’t been at his imperious best in recent times, and with the two men hovering around the same kind of price bracket in the betting, I have no hesitation in taking the World No.2 over the man ahead of him in the rankings on this occasion.

Skipping some of the Signature events seems to have been the key to keeping the 37 year-old motivated of late, “The benefits are seeing my family more. Feeling like I have a bit more balance in my life. I think one of the other benefits for me, like I’m nearly 20 years into this, and I need to do everything I can to keep my enthusiasm as high as possible, and playing a lighter schedule definitely does that.” Using that extra time proactively by spending time here at Royal Birkdale, a course which he rates as one of the very best tracks on the Open rota, may be the final piece of the jigsaw when it comes to adding to his 2014 title, won a few miles down the coast at Hoylake.

With the Career Grand Slam in the rear-view mirror and following a successful defence of his Masters title earlier this year, I’d imagine that winning both The Masters and The Open in the same year is a viable objective as he looks for motivational factors to keep his interest levels peaked – something that he can cross off his list with victory here this week.

With a relatively benign weather forecast, the challenges that Rory faced with a left-to-right wind last week – which he talked about at length in interview – may have all but dissipated by the time play starts on Thursday. If that’s the case then the rest of the field should be very, very wary of his chances this week, as should punters.

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Wyndham Clark 2pts EW 25/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes

Americans have an excellent record here at Royal Birkdale over the years, with Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, Johnny Miller, Tom Watson, Mark O’Meara and Jordan Spieth all proving victorious on the Merseyside links, and perhaps it’s Wyndham Clark who has the best chance of adding to that list of Stateside champions.

If we’re looking for someone to repeat the victory of Spieth here in 2017 then perhaps Clark is the closest correlation. Like Clark, Spieth had two Majors to his name when arriving here at Birkdale 9 years ago, both achieved in the relatively recent past. Wyndham of course won the US Open last month so has nothing to prove neither this season nor in a career that’s now been elevated to a bracket that few have ever achieved. I get the feeling though that there’s more to come with the 32 year-old, and we know with Clark that he can rattle off multiple wins when at the peak of his powers.

His breakthrough Major in 2023 came just 4 starts after his maiden PGA Tour title at the Wells Fargo Championship, and it was less then a year before he added the AT&T Pebble Beach title to his resume, closing with an exceptional round of 60 to pinch the title. Pebble Beach victories hold some correlation with a number of Birkdale winners over the years, including Spieth who won the Pro-Am there in the same year he was victorious here.

Success at the Byron Nelson in May ahead of his Shinnecock exploits tells us that Wyndham is playing some of the best golf on the planet this year, and last week’s tie for 13th was a similarly throttled-down performance that we saw at the Canadian Open in the lead up to the US Open. Bogey-free rounds of 67/66 on Friday and Saturday at Renaissance saw the Scottsdale resident enter the final day in a tie for 7th, with a closing round of 71 causing him no unnecessary emotional exertions.

4th at last year’s Open completes the argument that Clark should be supported this week. An opening round of 76 put him a long way outside of the cut line, however nobody bettered his closing three round total of 197 strokes and with (perhaps) a slightly less hostile crowd for him to overcome in Southport than in New York, I can see him seriously contending here this week.

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Viktor Hovland 2pts EW 35/1 (8EW, 1/5) with BetFred

With Rory backed win-only at the top of the market, I’m keeping this year’s staking plan nice and tight with just three each-way plays who I feel can seriously contend and potentially win this year’s Open, with Viktor Hovland my next selection.

Eight times a winner now on the PGA Tour, the Norwegian stared down Scottie Scheffler at last month’s Travelers Championship, piling the pressure on the World No.1 in the play-off by holing his birdie putt on the first extra hole and forcing the miss from his opponent in true match-play style. That was the Norwegian’s first win for a little over a year and I wonder if it will spark the kind of run of sustained form we saw from him in 2023 when he followed up his Memorial Tournament victory in June with success at the BMW Championship and Tour Championship to become the third-youngest FedEx Cup Champion.

That Travelers win correlates nicely with 2017 Birkdale winner Jordan Spieth who also won in Connecticut the month before taking the title here 9 years ago, and there’s further crossover between the pair with Hovland’s previous two wins at East Lake and Innisbrook also matching Spieth’s CV.

13th last week at Renaissance was an ideal warm-up for this year’s test given what we’ve seen from our last 4 winners who all finished between 8th and 15th on the North Berwick links prior to capturing the Claret Jug, The 28 year-old wanted his putter to warm up judging by his interviews in the early rounds last week and he got his wish on Sunday, carding a final round 64 and making over 100 feet of putts in the process to get the confidence flowing ahead of this week’s main event.

Viktor has recorded top-7 finishes in each of the Majors over the years and the next step for him now is to turn one of those contending performances into a maiden Major title. 4th at the 2022 Open at St Andrews was the closest that he’s come so far in this event, entering the final day in a tie for the lead alongside Rory McIlroy before carding a closing round of 74. With five wins and a couple of successful Ryder Cup appearances under his belt since that time, I suspect we’d see a far stronger closing effort should he find himself in position this time around.

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Patrick Reed 1pt EW 55/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

With Steve Bamford covering off his pick of the longer-priced options, I’ll conclude my team of Claret Jug contenders with Patrick Reed.

Like the other American in my team, Reed isn’t the most popular of players with golf enthusiasts, however that often makes him all the more backable with punters often giving him a wide berth. Fact is though, the current Race to Dubai leader is having a fabulous season so far and deserves to be shorter in the betting in my view.

Victory at the Dubai Desert Classic and Qatar Masters with a play-off defeat in Bahrain wedged in-between, Captain America had done enough by the start of February to ensure that he’ll be playing PGA Tour golf next year come what may. The decision to leave LIV early may prove to be a masterstroke when the dust settles, however in the meantime I’m sure that the 35 year-old would love nothing more than to capture a second Major title and give himself what would be a dominant lead at the top of the season-long rankings.

In terms of the trends that we ran through in our Open Championship Research Podcast, Reed ticks every box. With those two victories, 10th at The Masters, 12th at the PGA Championship as well as a 10th place finish at the 2019 Open on his CV, the World No.26 has all the credentials I’m looking for in a winner, and like 2017 winner Jordan Spieth,  he’ll be looking to bring the Claret Jug back home to Texas this week.

A firm and fast Royal Birkdale will suit Patrick who isn’t the longest from off the tee, but who possesses the kind of outstanding wedge and short game that might just prove pivotal this week. 2nd for both SG Approach and SG tee to Green on the DP World Tour this season tells us that there’s more than that to his game right now, and if he puts it all together this week then we know he’s got the guile to win this kind of prize.

13th last week at Renaissance completes the argument for me with Reed improving his position with every round without expending the mental energy of those at the very top of the leaderboard. A cracking each-way option in my opinion.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 10.40BST 13.7.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.