Paul Williams

Paul Williams' The Open Tips 2023

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The very best players in world golf are being joined at Royal Liverpool Golf Club, Hoylake this week by those who’ve qualified through the many and varied routes, as 156 hopefuls battle to win the Claret Jug and title of Champion Golfer of the Year in what’s sure to be an enthralling 4 days on the Merseyside links.

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With a top-class field comes an intriguing betting market, with Rory McIlroy rating as the best-priced 7/1 favourite at the time of writing following his win in Scotland, followed by the likes of world number 1 Scottie Scheffler (9/1), Masters Champion Jon Rahm (12/1), defending champion Cameron Smith (16/1) and US PGA Champion Brooks Koepka (20/1). As ever, there’s a case to be made for almost all of those near the head of the betting in what looks to be a pretty open affair.

If longshots are more to your taste then check out Steve Bamford’s pick of the triple-digit chances, plus a view on this week’s Barracuda Championship here.

2023 Open Championship Key Bookmaker Promotions

The 2023 Open Championship looks to be the most competitive Major Championship that we have ever seen. Additional each-way place hunters are spoilt for choice, and we’ve never seen so many additional each-way places offered at a Major.

For those of you looking for independent analysis as to who are the best golf betting bookmakers offering the most each-way places in 2023, read our analysis available here.

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Odds above used for illustrative purposes and were correct at 10:00BST 17.7.23, but are naturally subject to fluctuation.

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Ladbrokes 10 Places Each-Way at the 2023 Open

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And, to finish off, bet365 are offering a superb balance this week at the 2023 Open Championship, with market-best odds on a whole host of leading players, plus extended 8 places each-way at 1/5 odds:

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Royal Liverpool Golf Club, Hoylake, Merseyside, England: Designer: Harry Colt 1895, with Martin Ebert additions 2020; Course Type: Coastal, Links, Medium Length; Par: 71; Length: 7,383 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 0; Fairways: Fescue; Rough: Bentgrass, Fescue, with tall fescue 2″ First Cut; Greens: 6,458 sq.ft average featuring Browntop Bentgrass with Fescue. Course Scoring Average 2014: 72.77 (+0.77), Difficulty Rank 10 of 48 PGA Tour courses.

Course Overview: The Hoylake Links is an original Harry Colt design and will play as a 7,383 yard, Par 71 as the course has been extended by 71 yards since 2014 via a renovation project managed by eminent course designer Martin Ebert. The par change comes at the 10th Hole named Far, which has changed from a par-5 of 532 yards to a par-4 of 507 yards.

A summary of Hoylake in terms of its position within the Open Championship rota would be a fairly straightforward affair, with good play rewarded. It’s a relative flat track with few towering sand dunes. But for what it lacks in topography, Royal Liverpool gains with tall fescue in play on all holes and plenty of Out of Bounds.

All Par-4s and Par-5s feature 2-3 yards of semi-rough; stray over that in you’re instantly into knee- to waist-high fescue. The transition from fairway to tall fescue is both stark but also amazingly small in terms of miss distance.

Out of Bounds is also interesting with 6 holes featuring clear and obvious lines over which if you stray it’s an instant shot penalty. Tie that in with deep, penalising, fairway bunkering which has been re-positioned for 2023 golf distances, and it becomes clear that for players to thrive here they need to have control of their golf ball from off the tee.

For a full breakdown of the course, changes since The Open last visited, and player quotes from the 2014 Open Championship hosted here, read Steve Bamford’s pre-event trends article.

open championship tips

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Open Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats | Recent Majors Stats.

Predictor Model: Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Winners & Prices: 2022: Cameron Smith, 28/1; 2021: Collin Morikawa, 40/1; 2019:, Shane Lowry: 70/1; 2018: Francesco Molinari, 33/1; 2017: Jordan Spieth, 16/1; 2016: Henrik Stenson, 33/1; 2015: Zach Johnson, 110/1; 2014: Rory McIlroy, 18/1; 2013, Phil Mickelson, 20/1; 2012: Ernie Els, 45/1; 2011: Darren Clarke, 200/1; 2010: Louis Oosthuizen, 250/1.

For a full list of winners’ prices back to 2010, click here: PGA Tour | DP World Tour

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

A moderate westerly breeze of between 10-15mph is expected to accompany sunny spells and showers, with temperatures reaching the mid 60s Fahrenheit in the afternoons.

2014 Weather: For comparison, here’s how the weather played out in 2014, the last time Hoylake hosted The Open:

  • Thursday: Mostly sunny. Winds N/NW 10-15 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. High of 78 Fahrenheit.
  • Friday: Partly cloudy with a few light showers in the morning. Winds S/SE 15-25 mph. High of 80 Fahrenheit.
  • Saturday: Overcast with rain throughout the day. Winds W/NW 8-15 mph. High of 80 Fahrenheit.
  • Sunday: Mostly sunny and warmer, with highs in the mid-80s Fahrenheit. Winds N/NW 8-15 mph.

Even with the wind, Rory McIlroy still managed to get to 12-under through the first 36 holes, with Dustin Johnson next best at 8-under. With relatively soft conditions, scoring here isn’t likely to be too onerous for those who can keep the ball in play.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Let’s take the final skill statistics from Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy at their 2006 and 2014 wins here at Hoylake:

  • 2014: Rory McIlroy (-17). 328 yards (1st), 66.1% fairways (20th), 68.1% greens in regulation (25th), Ball Striking Rank 6th, 69.6% scrambling (4th), 1.65 putts per GIR (6th).
  • 2006: Tiger Woods (-18). 291 yards (53rd), 85.7% fairways (1st), 80.6% greens in regulation (2nd), Ball Striking Rank 10th, 50.0% scrambling (13th), 1.62 putts per GIR (12th).

A key angle jumps out from these basic traditional statistics. Firstly, accurate but not necessarily long driving is a must. Woods’ win here in 2006 is the stuff of Major Championship legend, with a Grade A tee-to-green strategy that Tiger hatched in his first practice round. A sun-baked Hoylake had left the course with rock hard fairways and greens, so Woods ditched his 5 wood for a 2 iron and proceeded to play conservatively off the tee, taking the fairway bunkers out of the equation, in turn maximising the amount of time he was in the fairway. Indeed TW only used his driver once during the whole tournament, hitting 48 of 56 fairways or 85.71% – that was first across the whole field.

McIlroy in 2014 took a typically buccaneering strategy off the tee, where he averaged 328 yards in distance which only Brooks Koepka could match. Less evident but just as important was the fact that Rory hit 37 of 56 fairways or 66.1%, which equated to a rank of 20th for Driving Accuracy. Spray the ball off the tee here at Hoylake and you won’t be winning the Open Championship come Sunday.

Ball Striking (totalling a player’s total driving and greens in regulation) as a statistic only holds so much water, but Woods ranked 10th and McIlroy 6th when lifting the trophy at Royal Liverpool. Naturally top-level putting was also a feature of their successes, but you’d expect nothing else at a Major Championship.

Scoring Breakdown: In terms of specific scoring stats, 4 areas correlate between both Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods in their respective victories:

2014, Rory McIlroy:

  • Eagles: 2, Tied 1st
  • Birdies: 20, Tied 3rd
  • Bogeys: 7, Tied 8th
  • Par 5 Scoring: -12, Tied 1st

2006, Tiger Woods:

  • Eagles: 3, Tied 1st
  • Birdies: 19, Tied 6th
  • Bogeys: 7, Tied 2nd
  • Par 5 Scoring: -14, Tied 3rd

Some Opens venues are more restrictive when it comes to scoring, however eagles and birdies are generally more available here at Hoylake with the Par 5s historically offering the best opportunities for red (or yellow) numbers.

There are also a number of identifiable trends from the past few Open Championship winners that are worth considering this week:

Recent Form: Going back to the Open held at St Andrews in 2010, each of the 12 players who’ve lifted the Claret Jug have had some contending form in the recent past. Each of the winners had a top-3 finish or better in their last 8 starts, and if you take the past 6 Open victors in isolation, each of them had a win or 2nd place finish in one of their past 9 outings.

Last 10 event form of Open Championship winners since 2010 reads as follows (most recent result on the right):

  • 2022, Cameron Smith: 33/1/3/MC/21/13/13/48/MC/10
  • 2021, Collin Morikawa: 1/41/56/18/7/8/14/2/4/71
  • 2019, Shane Lowry: 62/MC/MC/24/MC/3/8/2/28/34
  • 2018, Francesco Molinari: 17/20/49/16/MC/1/2/25/1/2
  • 2017, Jordan Spieth: 12/30/MC/11/MC/MC/2/13/35/1
  • 2016, Henrik Stenson: 11/3/2/24/MC/MC/4/WD/1/13
  • 2015, Zach Johnson: 20/9/MC/17/13/19/5/72/6/3
  • 2014: Rory McIlroy: 25/7/8/8/6/1/15/23/MC/14
  • 2013: Phil Mickelson: 3/MC/16/54/3/MC/2/2/MC/1
  • 2012: Ernie Els: 4/12/MC/2/MC/41/7/58/9/52
  • 2011: Darren Clarke: 12/48/MC/77/1/45/63/46/MC/66
  • 2010: Louis Oosthuizen: 3/44/2/1/MC/MC/21/20/MC/MC

For current form stats for this week’s field click here.

2023 Victory: Looking back to the start of the century, 16 of the 22 Open Championship winners had already won an event of some description in that calendar year to date.

For reference they were: Tiger Woods (00, 05, 06), Ernie Els (02), Todd Hamilton (04), Padraig Harrington (07), Louis Oosthuizen (10), Darren Clarke (11), Phil Mickelson (13), Rory McIlroy (14), Henrik Stenson (16), Jordan Spieth (17), Francesco Molinari (18), Shane Lowry (19), Collin Morikawa (21) and Cameron Smith (22).

In total, 51 players in this week’s field fulfil that criteria – listed by OWGR as of 14/7/22:

  • Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Cameron Smith, Max Homa, Matt Fitzpatrick, Wyndham Clark, Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, Keegan Bradley, Sam Burns, Rickie Fowler, Sungjae Im, Kurt Kitayama, Jason Day, Sepp Straka, Justin Rose, Corey Conners, Siwoo Kim, Chris Kirk, Emiliano Grillo, Nick Taylor, Taylor Moore, Adrian Meronk, Lucas Herbert, Pablo Larrazabal, Abraham Ancer, Victor Perez, Thriston Lawrence, Davis Riley, Rasmus Hojgaard, Thorbjorn Olesen, Talor Gooch, Takumi Kanaya, Matt Wallace, Jorge Campillo, Daniel Hillier, Keita Nakajima, Ockie Strydom, Taiga Semikawa, Hiroshi Iwata, Padraig Harrington, Marcel Siem, David Micheluzzi, Kensei Hirata, Seungsu Han, Kyle Barker, Brandon Robinson-Thompson, Ernie Els, Taichi Kho.

Open Championship Record: Positive previous Open Championship performances have also been a factor when you look through the history of the most recent winners of golf’s oldest Major.

9 of the last 12 Open Champions had all previously secured at least a top-10 in this event in their careers – the exception to that rule being Louis Oosthuizen’s win at St Andrews in 2010, Collin Morikawa who won at Royal St George’s on debut, and Cameron Smith last year at St Andrews.

Smith’s record could and perhaps should have been much better though, having sat in 5th place after 36 holes in 2019 and 9th after 54 holes in 2021, before getting it right over the weekend 12 months ago:

  • 2022, Cameron Smith: MC/78/20/33
  • 2021, Collin Morikawa: Debut
  • 2019, Shane Lowry: 37/32/9/MC/MC/MC/MC
  • 2018, Francesco Molinari: MC/13/MC/MC/39/9/15/40/36/MC
  • 2017, Jordan Spieth: 44/36/4/30
  • 2016, Henrik Stenson: MC/34/48/MC/3/13/3/68/2/39/40
  • 2015, Zach Johnson: MC/MC/MC/20/51/47/76/16/9/6/47
  • 2014: Rory McIlroy: 42/47/3/25/60/MC
  • 2013: Phil Mickelson: 41/24/76/MC/11/30/66/59/3/60/22/MC/19/48/2/MC
  • 2012: Ernie Els: 2/10/28/24/2/3/1/18/2/34/3/4/7/8/MC/MC
  • 2011: Darren Clarke: 11/2/MC/30/7/3/37/59/11/15/MC/MC/52/44
  • 2010: Louis Oosthuizen: MC/MC/MC

For event history stats for this week’s field click here.

Recent Majors Form: One aspect that we discussed on the Golf Betting System Podcast when previewing The Open is the growing and consistent trend that recent Open Champions have recorded a top-25 finish in one of their previous 3 Major starts, and in the case of the last 5 Open winners, a top-11 finish.

Last 3 Majors of recent Open winners:

  • 2022, Cameron Smith: 3/13/MC
  • 2021, Collin Morikawa: 18/8/4
  • 2019, Shane Lowry: MC/8/28
  • 2018, Francesco Molinari: 2/20/25
  • 2017, Jordan Spieth: 13/11/35
  • 2016, Henrik Stenson: 25/24/WD
  • 2015, Zach Johnson: 69/9/72
  • 2014: Rory McIlroy: 8/8/23
  • 2013: Phil Mickelson: 36/54/2
  • 2012: Ernie Els: MC/-/2

Logically this makes a level of sense as players who have found themselves in and around the top end of a Major leaderboard in recent times may well take that experience forward and build on it when the chance arises at The Open.

For recent Major history for this week’s field click here.

OWGR Ranking Of Winners: It’s also interesting to note that only two players since 2000 have won The Open whilst ranking outside of the world’s top-55 when entering this week: Ben Curtis in 2003 and Darren Clarke in 2011 were the two to achieve this.

Taking this another step further, every Open Champion since Clarke’s win has ranked inside the OWGR top 40 at the time:

  • 2022, Cameron Smith: OWGR rank 6th
  • 2021, Collin Morikawa: 4th
  • 2019, Shane Lowry: 33rd
  • 2018, Francesco Molinari: 15th
  • 2017, Jordan Spieth: 3rd
  • 2016, Henrik Stenson: 6th
  • 2015, Zach Johnson: 25th
  • 2014, Rory McIlroy: 8th
  • 2013, Phil Mickelson: 6th
  • 2012, Ernie Els: 40th

Hoylake isn’t one of the tougher Open Championship venues, even with a little breeze keeping the players honest, and unless the wind seriously blows here we should expect leading players to reach the mid-teens under par or thereabouts by Sunday afternoon. A change of par from 72 to 71 may dampen the scoring a little, however it doesn’t change the fundamental test that’s presented here.

What does this mean? Well, for me firmer, tougher conditions would swing the pendulum towards the more experienced veterans and links specialists, whereas softer conditions might favour a more ‘modern’ style of golfer.

Second-guessing seaside conditions can be a dangerous game to play, however the forecast does seem fairly stable at the time of writing with just a moderate breeze and showers, so I’m not expecting a Darren Clarke-style tournament and result. All that said, to lift the Claret Jug a player will also need to demonstrate masses of guile and determination coming down the stretch on Sunday under the most intense of pressure.

My 2023 Open Championship Selections Are As Follows:

Collin Morikawa 2pts EW 35/1 (8ew, 1/5) with bet365

There’s a very valid argument for backing world number Scottie Scheffler each-way at 9/1 this week given the masses of extended places on offer. 16 starts in 2023 have produced 16 top-12 finishes in an incredible run of consistency which sees him top a plethora of PGA statistics. Wins in Phoenix and at TPC Sawgrass, despite not putting well, tells us everything about the quality of his long game, and seeing him out of the frame this week doesn’t seem likely. Yet actually winning The Open may ultimately be beyond him unless he finds something significant with the flat stick.

Rory McIlroy can’t be ignored either, nor should he after last week’s effort. The 2014 champion here at Hoylake in not dissimilar conditions is the worthy favourite given his performance at Renaissance, yet no Major title since 2014 is a run that’s bound to be on his mind and once again the expectation as he enters this week might just hamper his chances. I can’t say with any conviction that neither Scheffler or McIlroy won’t win – the bookies aren’t wrong in that respect – however at the prices on offer I can take a chance and leave them alone.

The test here at Hoylake demands the kind of ball-striking prowess that the two favourites undoubtedly boast, however another player who can compete with the illustrious pair on that same count is Collin Morikawa who’s increasingly looked like a first win since November 2021 is on the horizon over the past few months.

In terms of ticking boxes from the various trends that I highlighted in the preamble, the only missing element from the American’s claim is not having won so far in 2023, a feat which 16 of the last 22 Open winners have achieved. Yet nobody bettered the 26 year-old’s 72-hole total last time out at the Rocket Mortgage Classic where he lost out to Rickie Fowler in a play-off, and had that result gone the other way then he’d have a full house here statistically.

That effort in Detroit needs a little extra scrutiny, following a missed cut the week before at the Travelers Championship where he improved out of sight on an opening round of 80 with a Friday 63 to narrowly miss out on the weekend’s golf. A 24-under total that contained 2 eagles, 21 birdies and just 1 bogey is fantastic preparation for this week’s task, and although he’s chosen to switch playing in Scotland for some time out at the tennis at Wimbledon, he’ll be fully acclimatised by the time the week starts and won’t have endured the trials and tribulations of a tough weekend at Renaissance.

Morikawa, who sits 5th in Par-5 scoring on the PGA Tour for the season which correlates nicely with both Woods and McIlroy’s wins here, has shown progressive form with his long game in every aspect since his US PGA Championship effort. In-field rankings where he’s made the weekend of 35/35/17/8 for SG Off the Tee, 23/10/9/7 for SG Approach, and 21/15/15/2 for SG Tee to Green shows a game that’s reaching a climax, and should he continue that trend then he’ll go very close this week.

The world number 19, who has season-long Majors form of 10/26/14 and the benefit of his 2021 Open Championship victory to draw upon this week, looks the most likely winner if one of the big two fail to convert. RESULT: MC

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Brooks Koepka 3pts EW 18/1 (10ew, 1/5) with Ladbrokes

It’s fact that 8 out of the last 10 Open Championship winners played the week immediately prior to lifting the Claret Jug, whether that’s at the Scottish Open which has traditionally been the warm-up event this side of the Atlantic, or one of the State-side tournaments that precedes golf’s oldest Major.

Since the Covid-cancelled 2020 edition, both of our winners Morikawa and Smith had played at Renaissance, yet taking a knife to anyone who didn’t tee it up on the North Berwick coastline would instantly remove all LIV players including Brooks Koepka and that seems like a mistake to me.

There were some positive performances at the Scottish Open which shouldn’t be ignored as you’ll see further from my third and final selection, however the fact that Brooks has had an enforced break is no bad thing for a player who likes to unwind and take the pressure off the week before a Major wherever possible, and that’s proven to be a potent strategy over the years as we well know.

5 times a Major Champion following his US PGA Championship win in May takes him one ahead of this week’s favourite McIlroy – in fact all 5 have been won since the Northern Irishman last tasted success at one of golf’s big 4 events – and of his contemporaries who are still active in some capacity, only Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson sit ahead of him right now for total Majors won. Put simply, he’s a Major machine.

2nd at this year’s Masters tied his best effort at Augusta National and gave everyone a huge hint of what was to come at Oak Hill the following month. 72 to open that week gave way to rounds of 66, 66 and 67 as the rain began to soften the course and a final 54-hole total that nobody in the field could get close to matching was the result. A firmer US Open at LACC saw him finish in a tie for 17th, however the promise of some cut in the ground here this week and further rain in the forecast helps his chances massively in my view.

Open Championship form is impressive enough with 4 top-10 finishes from 8 starts, and he has 4 rounds of competitive action here at Hoylake to his name having finished 67th here back in 2014 on what was just his fifth Major start at the time when playing a lot of his golf in Europe. Of the Open venues, my feeling is that this flatter terrain will suit better than some of the more undulating affairs and those with more blind shots which he’s not a fan of.

A winner of the LIV Orlando event earlier in the year, 3rd at the claustrophobic confines of Valderrama a fortnight ago where he ranked 2nd for Total Driving and 3rd for Ball Striking tells us all we need to know about the quality of his long game right now, and he can approach this week’s task with confidence in my view. RESULT: T64

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Tom Kim 1.5pts EW 45/1 (8ew, 1/5) with bet365

Finally, I still remember colleague Steve Bamford quoting Sir Matt Busby when successfully tipping Collin Morikawa at the 2020 US PGA Championship, “If you’re good enough, you’re old enough,” proving to be incredibly apt as the then 23 year-old impressively won by two strokes to secure his first Major title.

Having turned 21 a month ago, Tom Kim falls into the same category of incredibly talented youngsters with the immense talent and potential to win one of golf’s big titles very early in his career.

After turning professional at the tender ago of 16, Kim has gone on to win 11 times around the world in his short career to date, 2 of which came last year on the PGA Tour to make him the youngest player to win multiple titles on golf’s top circuit since Tiger Woods – illustrious company indeed.

47th on Open Championship debut at St Andrews 12 months ago, Tom has gone on to finish 16th on his debut at Augusta National earlier this season before recording his career-best Major finish last month at the US Open, recovering from an opening round of 73 to finish 8th at LACC. Comfort levels at golf’s biggest tests are clearly improving for the South Korean.

3rd at Renaissance last year announced Kim to the wider audience as he had a live chance to win that event coming down the stretch on a links course which offered up some significant defence, and he featured again last week on the same course, reaching the summit during Sunday’s play before finally succumbing a little down the stretch with his final tie for 6th impacted by a 72nd hole double bogey as he was desperately trying to clear out of Rory McIroy’s way.

10th for SG Approach, 19th for SG Tee to Green, 6th for Driving Accuracy and 7th for GIR are season-long statistics that work nicely, and with conditions less likely to favour the more experienced players this week than some other renewals, I can see the world number 24 feature here. RESULT: T2nd

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 10:10BST 17.7.23 but naturally subject to fluctuation.

If longshots are more to your taste then check out Steve Bamford’s pick of the triple-digit chances, plus a view on this week’s Barracuda Championship here.