What was once part of the Race to Dubai’s ‘Final Series’ and a big-money end of season affair, the Turkish Airlines Open returns to the schedule this week after a 6-year absence as the DP World Tour starts its European Swing.
A new spot on the calendar and a reduced $2.75m prize fund (down from the previous $7m) means that this 156-man affair is essentially now just a regular DP World Tour event, however with a little course history from its previous guise for us to dig into we do at least have a starting point.
Haotong Li heads the betting this week at around the 14/1 mark from Jordan Smith (18/1) and Wenyi Ding (22/1), with the likes of Matthew Jordan and Joost Luiten following behind in what looks to be a very open betting heat.
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Course Overview. After 3 years at the nearby Montgomerie Maxx for the 2013-15 events, the 2016 Turkish Airlines Open event shifted a little way up the coast to a new layout for the Tour at the Regnum Carya Golf & Spa Resort, where it stayed for 3 renewals. A solitary return to the Montgomerie Maxx in 2019 completes the course history lesson and the event returns this week with Regnum Carya resuming hosting duties.
The par 71, which measures a modest 7,220 yards, is a lopsided 34-37 where the back 9 measures nearly 600 yards longer than the front. Save for the 505 yard 10th, the par-4s are generally of scoreable length where a decent drive will result in a wedge into the large, undulating Bermuda TifEagle greens and birdies will most likely be the order of the day here this week once again. With the 10th hole safely navigated, players are presented with the short par-4 11th and a couple of reachable par-5s before they reach the closing holes on a course where birdies are there to be made.
The Peter Thomson design is a classical layout with its inspiration taken from the heathland tracks in England with most holes flanked by pine and eucalyptus trees. Around a million heather plants were added to the course to enhance its look and feel and floodlights allow for play at night making the course an extremely popular destination for visiting golfers.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the Antalya region is here.
Perfect conditions are likely to be presented to the players with sunny spells expected throughout the 4 days accompanied by a negligible breeze. Temperatures will peak in the low 80s Fahrenheit in the afternoons.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the top 3 finishers here for the three events played here between 2016-18 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2018:
1st: Justin Rose (-17). 296 yards (35th), 71.4% fairways (14th), 81.9% greens in regulation (6th), 30.8% scrambling (68th), 1.66 putts per GIR (7th)
2nd: Haotong Li (-17). 300 yards (22nd), 62.5% fairways (37th), 79.2% greens in regulation (13th), 60% scrambling (18th), 1.63 putts per GIR (2nd)
3rd: Thomas Detry (-15). 286 yards (58th), 53.6% fairways (63rd), 69.4% greens in regulation (63rd), 86.4% scrambling (1st), 1.62 putts per GIR (1st)
3rd: Adrian Otaegui (-15). 289 yards (54th), 62.5% fairways (37th), 79.2% greens in regulation (13th), 60% scrambling (18th), 1.75 putts per GIR (29th)
2017:
1st: Justin Rose (-18). 298 yards (24th), 81.4% fairways (2nd), 88.9% greens in regulation (1st), 87.5% scrambling (3rd), 1.75 putts per GIR (24th)
2nd: Nicolas Colsaerts (-17). 310 yards (7th), 71.4% fairways (11th), 83.3% greens in regulation (5th), 50% scrambling (37th), 1.65 putts per GIR (2nd)
2nd: Dylan Frittelli (-17). 307 yards (9th), 62.5% fairways (37th), 76.4% greens in regulation (19th), 82.4% scrambling (6th), 1.76 putts per GIR (25th)
2016:
1st: Thorbjorn Olesen (-20). 291 yards (17th), 53.6% fairways (63rd), 83.3% greens in regulation (8th), 66.7% scrambling (10th), 1.68 putts per GIR (7th)
2nd: David Horsey (-17). 275 yards (65th), 66.1% fairways (19th), 76.4% greens in regulation (31st), 70.6% scrambling (4th), 1.62 putts per GIR (2nd)
2nd: Haotong Li (-17). 292 yards (12th), 71.4% fairways (6th), 81.9% greens in regulation (11th), 53.8% scrambling (25th), 1.69 putts per GIR (9th)
The consensus prior to the 2016 event was that a sound tee-to-green game was the primary weapon to attack this course, however eventual winner Thorbjorn Olesen, ranking 63rd out of 78 players in terms of driving accuracy, raised questions over that approach. Justin Rose’s successes in the two years that followed redressed the balance somewhat, although it’s clear from the three sets of results that there’s more than one way to succeed here.
The Regnum Carya is a resort course first and foremost and despite some thick-looking rough, those players who drift from the straight and narrow tend to find it relatively straightforward to play their ball unless they’re blocked out by trees.
The greens are typically firm and fast, however very smooth and true which means that a lot of mid-range putts can be converted for birdie. There are multiple tiers to the greens which puts an emphasis on finding the right parts of greens in order to score, with the consensus from many of the players being that this is far easier achieved after finding the fairway.
Incoming Form: Looking at the recent form of the same top-3 finishers from the three years held here gives a mixed picture. Justin Rose was in top form when successfully defending his title here in 2018, hence his 9/2 price point, and had finished 3rd when defending his WGC HSBC Champions the week before. Runner-up Haotong Li was also in decent nick, having finished top-11 on his previous three outings. Detry and Otaegui were a little less obvious, but both had a top-10 finish in their previous 6 starts.
In 2017, Rose arrived here having won at Sheshan the week before and prior to that had recorded 4 consecutive top-10 finishes. Runner-up Nicolas Colsaerts had 3 top-25 finishes from 4 events prior to arriving here and was also pickable, however Dylan Frittelli less so given some indifferent finishes of late.
Going back to 2016, 3-shot winner Thorbjorn Olesen had failed to break the top-50 in any of his previous 6 starts and runner-up Haotong Li was also quite difficult to fancy. Fellow 2nd-place finisher David Horsey was in better form though with 4 top-12 finishes in his previous 6 starts:
2013: Victor Dubuisson: 61/MC/3/MC/53/MC/18/17/MC/3/17/44
With the exception of Thorbjorn Olesen, every winner had a top-10 finish or better in their last 8 starts.
Event Form. To complete the circle, here’s the event form of our winners of the Turkish Airlines Open since its inception:
2019: Tyrell Hatton: 19/26/10/16
2018: Justin Rose: 3/1
2017: Justin Rose: 3
2016: Thorbjorn Olesen: 29/72/41
2015: Victor Dubuisson: 1/15
2014: Brooks Koepka: Debut
2013: Victor Dubuisson: Debut
A sound tee-to-green game seems to be the most logical starting point with many of the player interviews from 2016-18 alluding to the fact that this course is scoreable when approach shots are being played from the short grass. The heather may well be little more than an aesthetic feature than something to truly differentiate a player’s chances, however those with a liking for Bermuda greens will enjoy putting here.
My final Turkish Airlines Open tips are as follows:
Having invested a fair chunk in Haotong Li so far this year, dropping him now in an event where he’s the deserved favourite could prove to be a mistake, so I’ll stick to my guns and see if my perseverance pays off.
In hindsight, backing the Chinese star at the Hainan Open last time out when he’d had such a good chance to win his home Open the week before was asking a bit much of him, however with a week’s rest and time to reflect on what’s been an excellent start to 2025, perhaps the 29 year-old will come out this week with renewed focus.
The point I’ve been making with Haotong is that he’s very much focussed on gaining one of the ten PGA Tour cards that are up for grabs again this season, and from his current position of 8th overall in the Race to Dubai he’s in great shape to achieve that, particularly as a number of those ahead of him don’t need the card.
Victory at the Qatar Masters in February was followed by progressive form of 41/16/9/4 before his blip at the Hainan Open where he finished 51st, however he co-led after the first round to remind us that he’s not lost all form overnight and a return to the Regnum Carya might just spark more fireworks. 3 starts here have seen him finish runner-up twice, first to an impressive Thorbjorn Olesen on course debut in 2016, and then he lost out in a play-off to Justin Rose two years later. Let’s be frank, there’s very little here this week of the quality of Olesen or Rose to worry our man should he find himself in a similar position this time around.
In years gone by, Li has relied on his putter to get him out of the trouble he so often found himself in, however his long game in 2025 has been a revelation. 19th for SG Off the Tee, 6th for SG Tee to Green and 2nd for SG Approach match the requirements of this course very nicely in my view and he could take all the beating here this week.
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With course history at a premium this week, those with less experience on Tour may not be as disadvantaged as some other weeks and that opens the door for talented maidens such as Ugo Coussaud.
The Frenchman is somewhat of a late bloomer, hitting the DP World Tour on a full-time basis last year and now at the age of 32 is hinting more and more that a breakthrough at this level could be on the cards. Ugo gained promotion to this level courtesy of his win in India on the Challenge Tour in 2023 combined with three further runner-up finishes, and is ready to take the next step in my view.
2nd at last year’s Qatar Masters is the closest that Ugo has come to winning at the upper level with only an inspired Rikuyu Hoshino preventing his from getting over the line that week, and further finishes of 7th at the BMW PGA Championship and 6th in Abu Dhabi were impressive given the strength of opposition.
11th at the South African Open is Coussaud’s best finish of 2025 to date, however progressive form of 25/20/17 before the DP World Tour broke up ahead of The Masters was positive and after some downtime he shook off the rust by winning a low-key event in Bordeaux last week.
At 22nd on Tour for Driving Distance, the fact that he’s twice finished inside the top-7 for fairways found over his last five starts is encouragement enough that he can give himself plenty of wedges into these greens to set up scoring opportunities, and 8th for GIR on his penultimate start in Singapore suggests that his irons are in good enough shape to take advantage this week.
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Adrian Otaegui 1pt EW 45/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred
It’s interesting reading through some of the interviews when Regnum Carya hosted this event in years gone by.
Lee Westwood commented, “One of the keys to this golf course, because the greens are quite firm, is hitting fairways so you can attack some of these pin.”
Nicolas Colsaerts was of a similar view, “It’s almost like an easier version of Valderrama-type thing; off the tee looks the same, and if you place the ball well on the fairways, you can be pretty aggressive at pins.”
Now this isn’t Valderrama by any stretch, nor is it massively demanding from off the tee, however finding the right portions of greens and avoiding the run-offs is key to scoring and that’s far easier achieved when attacking from the fairway, and in Adrian Otaegui we have a player who’s amongst the very straightest on Tour.
Coincidentally – or not given that claustrophobic track’s demand for accuracy – Otaegui’s a former winner at Valderrama amongst a tally of titles that reached 5 when he won the China Open at the start of May last year, another point which ticks the biorhythms box.
The Spanish-born star will feel at home in this Mediterranean test – indeed he finished 3rd here the last time we visited in 2018 – and having assumed a his new sporting nationality in December, the fact that he’s been living in his adopted UAE homeland for 13 years will have given him plenty of practice on similar Bermudagrass greens, a fact that’s washing through in his numbers more regularly now when the Tour visits the Middle East at various points.
26th at the China Open and 11th at the Hainan Classic before the DP World Tour’s latest week off showed progress following a slow start to 2025, punctuated by improving SG Approach and SG Putting figures to accompany a typically metronomic fortnight with his driver.
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Jordan Gumberg 1pt EW 150/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred
Finally I’ll take a chance on Jordan Gumberg who I backed to no avail at the China Open last month but who I still feel isn’t being given the respect he deserves from the bookies.
Accuracy is the American’s game which is no bad starting point for this week, hitting an identical 83.9% of fairways across his two starts in China which followed from a field-leading 90.5% accuracy at the Singapore Classic the previous month. Whilst not the longest from off the tee, he’s certainly not the shortest either – and that combination should allow the 30 year-old to earn more score opportunities than many others this week.
The Florida native earned his DP World Tour breakthrough at last year’s SDC Championship at St Francis links, a course of similar length to this week’s test, located just inland from the coast as we are again this week, and the field-leading performances that Jordan put together that week in terms of accuracy and scrambling would serve him well for a chance to double his tally this week.
16th last time out at the Hainan Classic on a course more suitable for flagrant bombing than accurate plotting saw Gumberg Strokes Gained positive in every category, the same as he was in the week of his aforementioned victory in South Africa, building on 49th at the China Open the week before where he achieved a career-best in-field ranking of 7th for SG Putting. If he can keep the momentum moving forwards then he could reward each-way backers at a very healthy price.
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