UK Championship Tips

There’s an interesting dynamic to the top of the market this week with Thomas Pieters and Rasmus Hojgaard sharing favouritism from Matt Wallace, however I’m going to take a chance on HaoTong Li who’s just a little further down the betting but well-capable of taking this field on given what we saw for large parts last week in Wales.

Pieters struggled with his irons a little once again last week at Celtic Manor, ranking 55^th of those who made the weekend in terms of Greens In Regulation, and he’ll need to sharpen that aspect up quick-smart if he’s going to contend this week in my view. There were no such issues for Hojgaard in that respect before he took some time off having already qualified for the US Open courtesy of his finishes of 2/6/3 to start the UK Swing, and it’s that feeling of ‘job done’ and a firm eye on next month’s Major debut that puts me off the talented Dane.

At his best, Matt Wallace would be a worthy favourite in this field, however form of 59/77/MC from his last three State-side outings is off-putting, particularly as he’s lost strokes from Tee-to-Green on each of those occasions. The same can’t be said for Haotong though who impressed at the US PGA Championship, finishing 17^th overall having led at the halfway stage, and he followed that up with an 8^th place finish last week in Wales which could have quite reasonably been a victory save for a few too many costly errors.

Saturday’s round of 76 at Celtic Manor was the Chinese star’s undoing, and in particular the front 9 where a triple bogey on the 3^rd hole and a further double bogey on the 8^th effectively took him out of the tournament. To his credit Li fought back on Sunday to record one of the best rounds of the day with a 67 – despite another double bogey – and takes some good momentum into this week. 2^nd for SG Approach and 1^st for SG Tee to Green in Wales bodes well for this week and the 25 year-old will be keen to get his career moving in a positive direction once again having dropped out of the OWGR top-100, having been well inside the top-50 a little over a year ago.

Li’s Dubai Desert Classic win back in 2018 correlates well with Belfry Winners Jose Maria Olazabal (won the Dubai Desert Classic in 1998), Henrik Stenson (won the Dubai Desert Classic in 2007) and Lee Westwood (3-times runner-up at the Dubai Desert Classic), and in truth there’s nothing in this field that should overly concern him this week. RESULT: T31

Plenty of punters will be feeling aggrieved after last week’s result, taking nothing away from Romain Langasque. As well Connor Syme and Sami Valimaki, both of whom we were on, Sebastian Soderberg was also carrying the hopes and money of many of you judging by Social Media, however in the end none of them could convert as the European Tour Sunday ritual of the lead passing round like a hot potato was in full effect.

Eventual winner Langasque will have slipped under many a punter’s radar last week simply because he hadn’t played the previous week at Celtic Manor, however I’m not going to make the same mistake with his talented compatriot Victor Perez who was last seen finishing 22^nd at TPC Harding Park on his Major Championship debut.

If strokes gained in the various long-game departments proves to be the deciding factor in this week’s test at The Belfry, then we only need to look at the stretch of 5 results from his win at the Dunhill Links in September to his runner-up finish at the Turkish Airlines Open in November of last year for evidence of his chance here this week. During that stretch he topped SG Off the Tee twice, SG Approach 3 times and SG Tee to Green 3 times as he leapt from close to 200^th in the OWGR to inside the top-50 by the end of the year.

So, we have a game that seemingly fits and some Gallic momentum from last week’s winner to compliment an impressive performance on the elite stage, which was only bettered by my headline selection Haotong Li at TPC Harding Park. In addition, that breakthrough win at the Dunhill Links is a title shared with the only Belfry winner in the field here this week, Lee Westwood. 4^th at the HSBC Champions also correlates well with both Westwood and Stenson having finished runner up in that event twice each, plus 2^nd in Abu Dhabi behind Westwood (again) also clearly fits, as does the fact that Stenson has again finished runner up there twice and Paul Casey has won there twice.

Going back to that aforementioned effort at the US PGA Championship. 4^th for Total Driving and 4^th for Ball-Striking would suggest that his long game’s in a pretty good place right now and he could well prove to be a more formidable player in this week’s field than his position in the betting market suggests. RESULT: T65

The buzz surrounding last week’s PGA Tour event at TPC Boston was undoubtedly all around the low scoring, with an incredible 30-under total from Dustin Johnson – including a 2^nd round of 60 which could have been well into the 50s – and of course Scottie Scheffler’s magical round of 59, however another player who’s gone super-low recently is James Morrison.

Now the 58 that the Englishman recorded shortly after lockdown started to ease and golf courses opened in the UK carries a few caveats of course when comparing it to the feats of the new world number 1 and Sheffler. It was achieved on a short par 70 at Morrison’s home course of St George’s Hill whilst playing with friends as opposed to in any pressurised competition, however you need to be playing some very nice golf regardless to produce that kind of round wherever you tee it up. Sam Horsfield has already proven (twice) that you should ignore these minor details at your peril.

There’s a little more substance to this bet than that effort in June though. 27^th at the Celtic Classic and 5^th last week on the same track suggests that his game is trending nicely forwards and 3^rd for SG Tee to Green last week is the green light for me to take a chance on him continuing his improvement here this week.

10^th for Driving Accuracy, 13^th for GIR and 2^nd for Scrambling last week are tidy enough figures ahead of this week and any kind of improvement with the putter may well see him contend for this week’s title at a long price. 135 over the weekend was the lowest aggregate 2-round score of the entire field at Celtic Manor part II and with that strategy nearly paying dividends for us last week with Sami Valimaki, I’ll happily adopt the same approach given the price on offer. RESULT: T39

Finally I’ll take a punt on Scotland’s Craig Howie who impressed at the Diamond Country Club on the Tour’s reappearance after the Covid lockdown and, from the little tangible form we’ve seen, would appear to be a good fit for The Belfry.

4^th in Austria was the Peebles golfer’s best career finish and, with his limited status for playing on the European Tour, he’s well aware that opportunities like that and again this week need to be capitalised upon if he’s going to continue rising up the levels.

The 26 year-old’s maiden professional victory came a couple of years ago on the Pro Golf Tour; however he’s shown since with a strong Q-School campaign that earned his Challenge Tour card for this year, as well as limited starts at the upper level such as last week and this, that he’s capable of operating at a decent level.

10^th at the Limpopo Championship on the Sunshine Tour gives us a hint that his long game is suitable for the demands of the Brabazon this week, ranking 2^nd for Driving Accuracy that week. 25^th at the Dimension Data Pro-Am prior to lockdown demonstrated much of the same (5^th for Accuracy, 4^th for GIR) and although we don’t have figures for Austria, it’s a fair assumption given the demands of that track that we saw something similar that week too.

21^st last week at Celtic Manor was another positive display, punctuated by an impressive 76.4% of Greens In Regulation, which ranked 2^nd in the field, as well as finishing 6^th for SG off the Tee and 8^th for SG Tee to Green, both of which may well prove to be important factors again this week. Craig lost strokes on the greens last week, however a more placid forecast and greens that have historically favoured those with a little less prowess with the putter could well work to his advantage, and another strong finish could see each-way backers rewarded once again. RESULT: T5