Course Guide: The Country Club at Brookline has hosted the 1999 Ryder Cup plus 3 U.S. Opens (1913, 1963, 1988). Interestingly it also hosted the 2013 U.S. Amateur won by Matt Fitzpatrick, with that tournament, in the main, being played on the Gil Hanse renovated golf course.
The Country Club, Brookline, Massachusetts: Designer: Willie Campbell 1895, Rees Jones, 1988, with Gil Hanse restoration 2009 ongoing; Course Type: Classical; Par: 70; Length: Circa 7,264 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 3; Fairways: Bentgrass with Poa Annua; Rough: Perennial Rye, Kentucky Bluegrass, Poa Annua, with Fescue 3-5″; Greens: 4,388 sq.ft average featuring Poa Annua (75%) with Bentgrass (25%) mix.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Gil Hanse designs/renovations include:
- Aronimink Golf Club – 2019 BMW Championship
- Plainfield CC – The Barclays – 2011 & 2015
- Ridgewood CC – The Barclays / Northern Trust 2010, 2014 & 2018
- Trump National Doral – 2014 through 2016 WGC Cadillac Championship
- TPC Boston – Deutsche Bank / Dell Technologies Championship through 2018 plus 2020 Northern Trust
- Winged Foot – 2020 U.S. Open
Course Overview: No competitors, viewers or punters will have seen The Country Club in its new 2022 U.S. Open guise. Since the 1957 U.S. Amateur for additional yardage purposes, a composite championship course had excluded three holes on the main course to stretch the total length by circa 450 yards. But this all changes in 2022 with re-routing including selected holes from the next door Primrose Course and the addition of the iconic 130 odd yard downhill par-3 12th hole – which will actually play as the 11th. The par-3 will be included for the first time in a U.S. Open at Brookline since 1913, when the United States Open Championship returns to The Country Club after a 34-year absence.
The Country Club’s standing as an iconic American golf course is well-known. It’s a circa 7,250 yard, Par 70 layout with infamous postage-stamp greens that roll fast and true, punishing rough, and picturesque fescue tracing the contour of many holes. Gil Hanse has performed course restoration both prior to the 2013 U.S. Amateur and ongoing.
Blind tee shots and approaches are plentiful here at Brookline; indeed semi-blind or totally blind approaches to raised and well-defended green complexes are far more common than at typical PGA Tour stop-offs. Fescue grass across the property is definitely a Massachusetts golf course characteristic and something we see regularly down the road at TPC Boston. Here though at Brookline, the fescue forms a very proactive defence for the golf course, both on errant drives and approaches.
And after Augusta National and Southern Hills in terms of major venues, we will see a significant change in the Brookline set-up this week. Green surfaces are 75% Poa Annua with 25% Bentgrass mix. The green complexes are also small – I can only think of Pebble Beach and Harbour Town which are smaller regular stop-offs on the PGA Tour.
Most green complexes also tilt from back to front – think Donald Ross course design style – with many also featuring false fronts which grab short approaches. Contours which lead to downhill putts from the back of the green will make approach control vital, so as to keep the ball below the hole as much as possible.
Another significant difference to both Augusta and Southern Hills is the fact that the Brookline set-up allows for deep, lush rough around both the sides and back edges of green complexes. Naturally the USGA need no second invitation on that front. The back 9 also sees a step-change where access to green complexes has to be 100% aerial. The 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 15th, 16th and closing 18th holes are all defended with bunkers and lush rough across 360 degrees, making ground attack impossible on the par-4s and single par-5, for those who are in trouble off the tee. Bunkering – 82 across the course in total – is plentiful, plus deep and difficult around the greens.
Winners: 2021: 2021: John Rahm (-6); 2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6); 2019: Gary Woodland (-13); 2018: Brooks Koepka (+1); 2017: Brooks Koepka (-16); 2016: Dustin Johnson (-4); 2015: Jordan Spieth (-5); 2014: Martin Kaymer (-9); 2013: Justin Rose (+1); 2012: Webb Simpson (+1); 2011: Rory McIlroy (-16); 2010: Graeme McDowell (E); 2009: Lucas Glover (-4).
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats | Recent Majors Stats.
Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Jon Rahm, Sam Burns Xander Schauffele, Will Zalatoris, Scottie Scheffler, Shane Lowry and Matthew Fitzpatrick.
Winners & Prices: 2021: Rahm 10/1; 2020: DeChambeau 25/1; 2019: Woodland 80/1; 2018: Koepka 25/1; 2017: Koepka 45/1; 2016: Dustin Johnson 16/1; 2015: Spieth 9/1; 2014: Kaymer 40/1; 2013: Rose 28/1; 2012: Simpson 80/1; 2011: McIlroy 22/1; 2010: McDowell 80/1. Average: 38/1.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Brookline, Massachusetts, is here.
Major championships in 2022 have meant less than ideal weather and that looks set to continue in Boston this week. Wind will again be a factor with +20 mph gusts looking a feature across all 4 days. That will cause huge problems at a U.S. Open-tough Brookline. Winds are from the south west (Thursday), west (Friday) and the north west (Saturday and Sunday).
Temperatures fall from 25 degrees Celsius on Thursday and Friday to 15 degrees on Sunday. Turf wise, rain has been falling early Monday, but the threat of rain is pretty limited throughout tournament week. So expect ever increasing fairway run and firm greens, unless the wind becomes too strong, when they will need to be watered.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the ISPS Handa Championship in Spain which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events. Players’ rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
- Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Cameron Young; 2) Joaquin Niemann; 3) Rory McIlroy; 4) Sungjae Im; 5) Matt Fitzpatrick; 6) Jason Kokrak / Jordan Spieth; 8) Tony Finau; 9) Mito Pereira; 10) Will Zalatoris; 11) Keegan Bradley / Patrick Rodgers / Justin Thomas; 14) Abraham Ancer / Corey Conners; 16) Kurt Kitayama; 17) Luke List; 18) Stewart Cink / Chan Kim / Min Woo Lee / Shane Lowry / Victor Perez; 23) Viktor Hovland / Jon Rahm; 25) Max Homa.
- Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Ryan Fox; 2) Kevin Na; 3) Xander Schauffele; 4) Mito Pereira; 5) Rory McIlroy; 6) Aaron Wise; 7) Scottie Scheffler; 8) Sungjae Im; 9) Max Homa; 10) Cameron Smith; 11) Dustin Johnson; 12) Victor Perez / Harold Varner III; 14) Davis Riley / Thomas Pieters; 16) Sam Burns / Tommy Fleetwood / Collin Morikawa; 19) K.H. Lee; 20) Justin Rose / Will Zalatoris; 22) Sebastian Munoz; 23) Jordan Spieth; 24) Shane Lowry / Hideki Matsuyama / Webb Simpson.
- Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Kevin Na; 2) Harold Varner III; 3) Tony Finau; 4) Jordan Spieth; 5) Shane Lowry; 6) Lucas Herbert / Justin Thomas; 8) Sungjae Im / Cameron Young; 10) Adam Hadwin; 11) Brian Harman / Si Woo Kim / Xander Schauffele; 14) Denny McCarthy; 15) Talor Gooch / Billy Horschel; 17) Cameron Smith; 18) Andrew Novak; 19) Andrew Putnam / Patrick Reed; 21) Scottie Scheffler; 22) Bryson DeChambeau / Mito Pereira; 23) Wyndham Clark / Sam Horsfield; 25) Min Woo Lee.
- Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Rory McIlroy; 2) Sungjae Im / Mito Pereira; 4) Xander Schauffele; 5) Jordan Spieth; 6) Ryan Fox; 7) Tony Finau / Davis Riley / Harold Varner III; 10) Matt Fitzpatrick / Kevin Na / Aaron Wise / Cameron Young; 14) Max Homa; 15) Scottie Scheffler; 16) Cameron Smith / Will Zalatoris; 18) Shane Lowry; 19) Joaquin Niemann / Jon Rahm; 21) Tommy Fleetwood / Justin Thomas; 23) Victor Perez; 24) Sam Burns; 25) Brian Harman.
- Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Brooks Koepka; 2) Denny McCarthy; 3) Max Homa; 4) Lucas Herbert; 5) Beau Hossler; 6) Justin Thomas; 7) Sam Horsfield; 8) Sam Burns; 9) Viktor Hovland / Davis Riley / Patrick Rodgers; 12) Joaquin Niemann; 13) Alex Noren / Jon Rahm / Justin Rose; 16) Matt Fitzpatrick; 17) Stewart Cink / Marc Leishman; 19) Troy Merritt; 20) Rory McIlroy; 21) Bryson DeChambeau; 22) Keegan Bradley; 23) Tom Hoge; 24) Sebastian Munoz; 25) Lanto Griffin / Seamus Power.
- Top 25 SG Total: 1) Rory McIlroy; 2) Davis Riley; 3) Mito Pereira; 4) Max Homa; 5) Xander Schauffele; 6) Sungjae Im; 7) Ryan Fox; 8) Jordan Spieth; 9) Tony Finau; 10) Joaquin Niemann; 11)Matt Fitzpatrick; 12) Jon Rahm; 13) Justin Thomas / Aaron Wise; 15) Shane Lowry; 16) Sam Burns; 17) Kevin Na; 18) Victor Perez / Cameron Smith; 20) Denny McCarthy; 21) Tommy Fleetwood / Cameron Young; 23) Scottie Scheffler; 24) Keegan Bradley / Harold Varner III.
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 12 winners of the U.S. Open:
- 2021 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 6th.
- 2020 – Bryson DeChambeau: Round 1: 14th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.
- 2019 – Gary Woodland: Round 1: 8th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2018 – Brooks Koepka: Round 1: 46th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 1st.
- 2017 – Brooks Koepka: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
- 2016 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
- 2015 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2014 – Martin Kaymer: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2013 – Justin Rose: Round 1: 16th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 5th.
- 2012 – Webb Simpson: Round 1: 23rd, Round 2: 29th, Round 3: 8th.
- 2011 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2010 – Graeme McDowell: Round 1: 10th, Round 2 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
Shots From the Lead: Below are the winners of the U.S. Open and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
- 2021 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 3 back.
- 2020 – Bryson DeChambeau: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 2 back.
- 2019 – Gary Woodland: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 2 ahead, Round 3: 1 ahead.
- 2018 – Brooks Koepka: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: level.
- 2017 – Brooks Koepka: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 1 back.
- 2016 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 4 back.
- 2015 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: level.
- 2014 – Martin Kaymer: Round 1: 3 ahead, Round 2: 6 ahead, Round 3: 5 ahead.
- 2013 – Justin Rose: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 2 back.
- 2012 – Webb Simpson: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 6 back, Round 3: 4 back.
- 2011 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 3 ahead, Round 2: 6 ahead, Round 3: 8 ahead.
- 2010 – Graeme McDowell: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 2 ahead, Round 3: 3 back.
Incoming form of U.S. Open winners since 2010:
- Jon Rahm: WD Memorial/8th PGA/34th Byron/MC Quail.
- Bryson DeChambeau: 25th Tour Champ/50th BMW Champ/MC Northern Trust/4th PGA.
- Gary Woodland: 52nd Memorial/8th PGA/MC Quail Hollow/32nd Augusta.
- Brooks Koepka: 30th TPC Southwind/2nd Colonial/11th TPC Sawgrass/42nd Quail.
- Brooks Koepka: 37th TPC Southwind/31st Memorial/50th TPC4S/16th TPC Sawgrass.
- Dustin Johnson: 5th TPC Southwind/3rd Memorial/12th TPC4S/28th TPC Sawgrass.
- Jordan Spieth: 3rd Memorial/30th TPC4S/2nd Colonial/MC TPC Sawgrass.
- Martin Kaymer: 12th Wentworth/29th TPC4S/1st TPC Sawgrass/18th Quail.
- Justin Rose: 8th Memorial/50th Wentworth/MC TPC Sawgrass/15th TPC Louisiana.
- Webb Simpson: MC Memorial/MC TPC Sawgrass/ 4th Quail/13th New Orleans.
- Rory McIlroy: 5th Memorial/24th Wentworth/MC Quail/3rd Kuala Lumpur.
- Graeme McDowell: 1st Celtic Manor/4th Madrid/28th Wentworth/26th TPC Sawgrass.
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.
- 2021 – Henley/Oosthuizen – AM/PM Split -4/67 – 100/1 & 45/1.
- 2020 – Thomas – AM -5/65 – 25/1.
- 2019 – Rose – PM -6/65 – 40/1.
- 2018 – Henley/D Johnson/Piercy/Poulter – 2AM/2PM -1/69 – 125/1, 16/1, 200/1 & 100/1.
- 2017 – Fowler – AM -7/65 – 40/1.
- 2016 – Landry – AM -4/66.
- 2015 – D Johnson/Stenson – Both AM -5/65.
- 2014 – Kaymer – PM -5/65.
- 2013 – Mickelson – AM -3/67.
- 2012 – M Thompson – AM -4/66.
- 2011 – McIlroy – PM -6/65.
- 2010 – Casey/de Jonge/Micheel – All PM -2/69.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Poa Annua and Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
- 11 – Dustin Johnson.
- 6 – Bubba Watson.
- 5 – Phil Mickelson.
- 4 – Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm.
- 3 – Colin Morikawa, Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth.
- 2 – Max Homa, Brooks Koepka, Adam Scott, Gary Woodland.
- 1 – Jonas Blixt, Keegan Bradley, Patrick Cantlay, Stewart Cink, Harris English, Tom Hoge, Billy Horschel, Marc Leishman, Luke List, Shane Lowry, Hideki Matsuyama, Joaquin Niemann, Andrew Putnam, Justin Rose, Scott Stallings, Nick Taylor, Justin Thomas, Erik van Rooyen
Recent U.S. Open history features a new breed of champions with first-time Major winners galore. Indeed, going back to 2009, 10 of the last 13 champions had never captured a Major title.
So for me it’s interesting to look at the prices of first-time Major winners going back to Danny Willett winning the 2016 Masters:
- 2022 Masters Scottie Scheffler 16/1
- 2021 US Open Jon Rahm 10/1 Favourite
- 2021 Masters Hideki Matsuyama 45/1
- 2020 US Open Bryson DeChambeau 25/1
- 2020 PGA Championship Collin Morikawa 35/1
- 2019 Open Championship Shane Lowry 70/1
- 2019 US Open Gary Woodland 80/1
- 2018 Open Championship Francesco Molinari 33/1
- 2018 Masters Patrick Reed 50/1
- 2017 PGA Championship Justin Thomas 45/1
- 2017 US Open Brooks Koepka 50/1
- 2016 PGA Championship Jimmy Walker 150/1
- 2016 Open Championship Henrik Stenson 33/1
- 2016 US Open Dustin Johnson 16/1
- 2016 Masters Danny Willett 66/1
Overall it’s well worth noting that the average price for U.S. Open winners since 2015 is 30/1. Jordan Spieth won at 9/1 in 2015, fresh from a Masters win, and since then the winning prices have been 16/1 (2016 – Johnson), 45/1 (2017 – Koepka), 25/1 (2018 – Koepka), 80/1 (2019 – Woodland), 25/1 (2020 – DeChambeau) and 10/1 (2021 – Rahm).
My selections are as follows:
US Open – Featured In-Play Bookmaker:
