Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford's US Open Tips 2023

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Congratulations if you were on-board Nick Taylor at Monday prices of 66/1 last week. He became the first Canadian for 69 years to win his home Open and what a reaction from the crowd! Tommy Fleetwood came ever so close to taking his first PGA Tour title and can certainly hold his head high. It remains though that Fleetwood had an open goal standing on the 18th tee of a sub-500 yard par-5 and made a real howler of it.

On to this week and the 123rd US Open is visiting the Los Angeles Country Club for the first time in its illustrious history. It should be an absolute feast of golf with the deepest field in Major Championship golf present.

Before we go into the detail surrounding the US Open, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube, and our hugely popular, +6,200 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

2023 US Open Key Bookmaker Promotions

The 2023 U.S. Open looks to be a very open affair with a whole host of top players looking to take out the final United States Major Championship of 2023. The U.S. Open always gets punters excited and bookmakers have risen to the challenge in 2023 with a fantastic range of extended each-way place term promotions equalling a record number of extended each-way places for us punters.

These are value-packed times in golf betting and we have never seen so many additional each-way places offered at Major Championships. Make sure that you take advantage, we detail the current new customer offers for you to enjoy below.

For those of you looking for independent analysis as to who are the best golf betting bookmakers offering the most each-way places in 2023, read our analysis available here.

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Odds above used for illustrative purposes and were correct at 10:40BST 12.6.23, but are naturally subject to fluctuation.

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Course Guide: The United States Open Championship returns to Los Angeles, California for the first time since 1948. The North Course at Los Angeles Country Club is the venue. It’s set in a unique landscape, which takes advantage of numerous hilltops, valleys and ridges to create a series of distinctive holes that seem unique in world golf.

North Course, Los Angeles Country Club, Los Angeles, California: Designer: George Thomas with William P. Bell 1928; Gil Hanse with Jim Wagner and Geoff Shackelford restoration 2010; Course Type: Classical, Technical, Long Length; Par: 70; Length: Circa 7,421 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 0; Fairways: Tifway Bermudagrass; Rough: Tifway & Bandera Bermudagrass, with Fescue and Buffalo Grass 3-4″; Greens: Pure Distinction Creeping Bentgrass. Stimpmeter: 13.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Gil Hanse designs (including re-renovations/restorations) include:

  • Aronimink Golf Club – 2019 BMW Championship
  • Plainfield CC – The Barclays – 2011 & 2015
  • Ridgewood CC – The Barclays / Northern Trust 2010, 2014 & 2018
  • Southern Hills CC – 2022 PGA Championship
  • The Country Club, Brookline – 2022 U.S. Open
  • Trump National Doral – 2014 through 2016 WGC Cadillac Championship
  • TPC Boston – Deutsche Bank / Dell Technologies Championship through 2018 plus 2020 Northern Trust
  • Winged Foot – 2020 U.S. Open

Course Overview: The North Course is a George Thomas original – the same designer who helped pen another Los Angeles classic, namely Riviera Country Club which hosts Tiger Woods’ Genesis Invitational every February on the PGA Tour. The much acclaimed Gil Hanse, who worked on recent U.S. Open venues Winged Foot (2020) and Brookline (2022), along with the Southern Hills which hosted the 2022 PGA Championship, renovated the North Course across 2009-2010.

2009 saw all fairway bunkering on the course renovated. 2010 saw greenside bunker restoration, new tees, re-grassing (Poa Annua to Bentgrass greens), irrigation, plus the mass removal of trees and accompanying shrubs. So successful was the project that the bunkering and use of hazards here on the North Course rivals those at the best parkland courses in the country including Merion (2013 U.S. Open) and Oakmont (2016 U.S. Open).

In simple numbers, the North Course plays on the scorecard as a 7421 yard, Par 70 for the 2023 U.S. Open. That yardage will change by day, but it’s irrefutable that this will be a long test. The Par 70 set-up will not be as standard; instead the course features 5 par-3s, 10 par-4s and 3 par-5s.

Agronomy is also worth taking note of for this U.S. Open. California courses tend to feature a mix of Ryegrass, Kikuyugrass or Poa Annua grass fairways and rough, plus Poa Annua or Bentgrass mixed with Poa Annua putting surfaces. I’m talking California classics here like Pebble Beach, Riviera Country Club and Torrey Pines.

The North Course at Los Angeles Country Club this week will feature Bermudagrass fairways and rough, which is being employed at a U.S. Open for the first time since Pinehurst Number 2 in 2014. Green complexes and fringes will feature Pure Distinction Creeping Bentgrass greens which are quoted to run at 13 on the Stimpmeter.

LACC is famous for both its location right next to Beverly Hills, but more pertinently for its distinctly hilly topography and its sheer variety which includes long and short hole yardages, severe up and downhill elevation changes. Throw in cambered fairways aplenty, plenty of doglegs, framed by severe Merion-like bunkering and natural gorges and ravines known locally as barranca. A number of holes feature these sandy, rocky features with tall fescue thrown in as well, especially on the front-9. The barranca dissects fairways, flanks fairways holes or front green complexes. The wayward hitting into them have to play their ball with lies varying from excellent to nigh-on unplayable. So expect plenty of double and triple bogeys on this stretch of the golf course for the wayward off the tee.

So the 2023 U.S. Open is visiting a pretty unique venue and let’s also think through the mid-June date. Southern California weather is likely to help the USGA when it comes to making the course more challenging for pros. “You know it’s going to be dry,” Hanse said. “We have the necessary length and the USGA will be able to dictate the firmness. That’s the most effective defence for modern-day Tour players.” Huge drives, aided by wide, running fairways will be the norm. The real interest though comes around the greens for me, which are likely to release in the afternoons and especially over the weekend.

Now there is thick rough around green complexes, but it tends to be targeted on certain sides of them. With many of these greens elevated, where steep banks surround complexes, you see closely mown run-off areas. There is more of this feature than we saw at Oak Hill in that respect – so with less responsive greens we can expect more wayward shots that will fall back off, raised, contoured putting surface edges into collection areas or back to the fairway.

US Open Tips

U.S. Open Winners: 2022: Matt Fitzpatrick (-6); 2021: John Rahm (-6); 2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6); 2019: Gary Woodland (-13); 2018: Brooks Koepka (+1); 2017: Brooks Koepka (-16); 2016: Dustin Johnson (-4); 2015: Jordan Spieth (-5); 2014: Martin Kaymer (-9); 2013: Justin Rose (+1); 2012: Webb Simpson (+1); 2011: Rory McIlroy (-16); 2010: Graeme McDowell (E); 2009: Lucas Glover (-4).

  • 2022: Matt Fitzpatrick 68-70-68-68 -6/274
  • 2021: Jon Rahm 69-70-72-67 -6/278
  • 2020: Bryson DeChambeau 69-68-70-67 -6/274
  • 2019: Gary Woodland 68-65-69-69 -13/271
  • 2018: Brooks Koepka 69-63-66-66 -16/264
  • 2017: Brooks Koepka 67-70-68-67 -16/272

OWGR of U.S. Open Winners: 2022: Fitzpatrick 18; 2021: Rahm 3; 2020: DeChambeau 9; 2019: Woodland 24; 2018: Koepka 9; 2017: Koepka 22.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

Published Predictor Models: My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own model in real time using the variables listed on the left hand side.

U.S. Open Winners & Prices: 2022: Fitzpatrick 25/1; 2021: Rahm 10/1; 2020: DeChambeau 25/1; 2019: Woodland 80/1; 2018: Koepka 25/1; 2017: Koepka 45/1; 2016: Dustin Johnson 16/1; 2015: Spieth 9/1; 2014: Kaymer 40/1; 2013: Rose 28/1; 2012: Simpson 80/1; 2011: McIlroy 22/1; 2010: McDowell 80/1. Average: 37/1.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Beverly Hills, California, is here.

This area hasn’t received any significant rain since the 19th May, so the USGA are set to get exactly what they wanted when they chose the North Course at LACC. Weather in these parts tends to be on repeat from day to day, and that’s certainly the case this week.

Temperatures reaching a very pleasant 20-24 degrees Celsius (68-75 Fahrenheit) will be on tap. Early mornings will feature little wind, with later morning through the afternoon seeing nothing more than 10mph off of the Pacific. Rain won’t be a feature whatsoever. Cloudy starts will disappear late morning so scoring will be best for the early starters whilst the greens have a little moisture within them. As the day moves on the course will get faster with releasing putting surfaces.

Player Strokes Gained 8-Week Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the ISPS Handa Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

  • Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Bryson DeChambeau; 2) Scottie Scheffler; 3) Mito Pereira; 4) Patrick Cantlay; 5) Brooks Koepka; 6) Xander Schauffele; 7) Sam Bennett; 8) Adrian Meronk; 9) Viktor Hovland / Jon Rahm; 11) Min Woo Lee / Gary Woodland; 13) Austin Eckroat / Brent Grant / Lucas Herbert / Vincent Norrman; 17) Luke List / Rory McIlroy; 19) Tommy Fleetwood / Tyrrell Hatton / Si Woo Kim; 22) Corey Conners / Adam Scott / Jordan Smith; 25) Keith Mitchell / Cameron Young.
  • Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Brooks Koepka; 2) Mito Pereira; 3) Justin Rose / Scottie Scheffler; 5) Collin Morikawa; 6) Bryson DeChambeau; 7) Russell Henley; 8) Hideki Matsuyama; 9) Cameron Smith; 10) Wyndham Clark; 11) Jon Rahm; 12) Si Woo Kim / Carson Young; 14) Tyrrell Hatton; 15) Emiliano Grillo; 16) Shane Lowry / Xander Schauffele; 18) Dylan Wu; 19) Rickie Fowler / Adam Schenk; 21) Ross Fisher; 22) Ryan Armour / Austin Eckroat / Andrew Putnam / Gary Woodland.
  • Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Brooks Koepka; 2) Scottie Scheffler; 3) Pablo Larrazabal; 4) Padraig Harrington; 5) Justin Rose / Cameron Smith; 7) Tony Finau; 8) Eric Cole / Hideki Matsuyama; 10) Chris Kirk / Patrick Reed; 12) Rickie Fowler / Alex Noren; 14) Kevin Streelman; 15) Dustin Johnson; 16) Matt Kuchar; 17) Tyrrell Hatton / Gary Woodland; 19) Rory McIlroy / Davis Thompson; 21) Tommy Fleetwood; 22) Keegan Bradley / Vincent Norrman; 24) Ryan Fox; 25) Corey Conners.
  • Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Brooks Koepka; 3) Bryson DeChambeau; 4) Mito Pereira; 5) Justin Rose; 6) Tyrrell Hatton / Adrian Meronk / Jon Rahm; 9) Si Woo Kim; 10) Hideki Matsuyama / Xander Schauffele; 13) Patrick Cantlay; 14) Rory McIlroy; 15) Viktor Hovland / Vincent Norrman / Gary Woodland; 18) Tony Finau  / Collin Morikawa / Adam Scott; 21) Russell Henley; 22) Tommy Fleetwood; 23) Austin Eckroat; 24) Eric Cole; 25) Corey Conners.
  • Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Cameron Smith; 2) Patrick Reed; 3) Thomas Pieters; 4) Denny McCarthy; 5) Max Homa / Victor Perez; 7) Brooks Koepka; 8) Justin Suh; 9) Tyrrell Hatton; 10) Xander Schauffele; 11) Adam Scott; 12) Sahith Theegala; 13) Ryan Fox; 14) Viktor Hovland; 15) Tommy Fleetwood / Carson Young; 17) Bryson DeChambeau / Pablo Larrazabal; 19) Wyndham Clark; 20) Andrew Putnam; 21) Stewart Cink; 22) Dustin Johnson / Justin Rose; 24) Emiliano Grillo; 25) Matt Kuchar / Rory McIlroy / Adam Svensson / Michael Thorbjornsen.
  • Top 25 SG Total: 1) Brooks Koepka; 2) Scottie Scheffler; 3) Bryson DeChambeau; 4) Cameron Smith; 5) Tyrrell Hatton; 6) Justin Rose; 7) Adam Scott; 8) Xander Schauffele; 9) Viktor Hovland; 10) Rory McIlroy / Mito Pereira / Patrick Reed; 13) Patrick Cantlay; 14) Tommy Fleetwood; 15) Rickie Fowler / Hideki Matsuyama / Jon Rahm; 18) Max Homa / Denny McCarthy / Adrian Meronk; 21) Ryan Fox; 22) Si Woo Kim; 23) Carson Young; 24) Keegan Bradley / Eric Cole / Andrew Putnam.

Player Strokes Gained 8-Week Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the ISPS Handa Championship which includes PGA Tour and DP World Tour events but only PGA Tour players. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

  • Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Patrick Cantlay; 3) Xander Schauffele; 4) Sam Bennett; 5) Viktor Hovland / Jon Rahm; 7) Min Woo Lee / Gary Woodland; 9) Austin Eckroat / Brent Grant / Lucas Herbert / Vincent Norrman; 13) Luke List / Rory McIlroy; 15) Tommy Fleetwood / Tyrrell Hatton / Si Woo Kim; 18) Corey Conners / Adam Scott; 20) Keith Mitchell / Cameron Young; 22) Cam Davis / Shane Lowry; 24) Jason Day / Sam Stevens.
  • Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Justin Rose / Scottie Scheffler; 3) Collin Morikawa; 4) Russell Henley; 5) Hideki Matsuyama; 6) Wyndham Clark; 7) Jon Rahm; 8) Si Woo Kim / Carson Young; 10) Tyrrell Hatton; 11) Emiliano Grillo; 12) Shane Lowry / Xander Schauffele; 13) Dylan Wu; 14) Rickie Fowler / Adam Schenk; 16) Ryan Armour / Austin Eckroat / Andrew Putnam / Gary Woodland; 20) Tom Kim; 21) Nick Taylor; 22) Harris English / Luke List; 24) Eric Cole; 25) Tommy Fleetwood / Ryan Fox.
  • Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Padraig Harrington; 3) Justin Rose; 4) Tony Finau; 5) Eric Cole / Hideki Matsuyama; 7) Chris Kirk; 8) Rickie Fowler / Alex Noren; 10) Kevin Streelman; 11) Matt Kuchar; 12) Tyrrell Hatton / Gary Woodland; 14) Rory McIlroy / Davis Thompson; 16) Tommy Fleetwood; 17) Keegan Bradley / Vincent Norrman; 19) Ryan Fox; 20) Corey Conners; 21) Charley Hoffman / Taylor Montgomery; 23) Mackenzie Hughes; 24) Harris English / Adam Hadwin.
  • Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Justin Rose; 3) Tyrrell Hatton / Jon Rahm; 5) Si Woo Kim; 6) Hideki Matsuyama / Xander Schauffele; 8) Patrick Cantlay; 9) Rory McIlroy; 10) Viktor Hovland / Vincent Norrman / Gary Woodland; 13) Tony Finau  / Collin Morikawa / Adam Scott; 16) Russell Henley; 17) Tommy Fleetwood; 18) Austin Eckroat; 19) Eric Cole; 20) Corey Conners; 21) Ryan Fox; 22) Shane Lowry / Sepp Straka; 24) Wyndham Clark / Charley Hoffman.
  • Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Denny McCarthy; 2) Max Homa; 3) Justin Suh; 4) Tyrrell Hatton; 5) Xander Schauffele; 6) Adam Scott; 7) Sahith Theegala; 8) Ryan Fox; 9) Viktor Hovland; 10) Tommy Fleetwood / Carson Young; 12) Wyndham Clark; 13) Andrew Putnam; 14) Stewart Cink; 15) Justin Rose; 16) Emiliano Grillo; 17) Matt Kuchar / Rory McIlroy / Adam Svensson / Michael Thorbjornsen; 21) Keegan Bradley; 22) Billy Horschel; 23) Nick Taylor; 24) Francesco Molinari / Patrick Rodgers.
  • Top 25 SG Total: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Tyrrell Hatton; 3) Justin Rose; 4) Adam Scott; 5) Xander Schauffele; 6) Viktor Hovland; 7) Rory McIlroy; 8) Patrick Cantlay; 9) Tommy Fleetwood; 10) Rickie Fowler / Hideki Matsuyama / Jon Rahm; 13) Max Homa / Denny McCarthy; 15) Ryan Fox; 16) Si Woo Kim; 17) Carson Young; 18) Keegan Bradley / Eric Cole / Andrew Putnam; 21) Wyndham Clark / Matt Fitzpatrick; 23) Corey Conners; 24) Russell Henley; 25) Emiliano Grillo / Adam Hadwin / Kevin Streelman.

Want to see who the best Major Championship performers have been since the start of 2017? Here is our Recent Major Championship Finish Analysis.

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for U.S. Open winners since 2010:

  • 2022 – Matt Fitzpatrick: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 13th, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2021 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 6th.
  • 2020 – Bryson DeChambeau: Round 1: 14th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.
  • 2019 – Gary Woodland: Round 1: 8th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2018 – Brooks Koepka: Round 1: 46th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2017 – Brooks Koepka: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
  • 2016 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
  • 2015 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2014 – Martin Kaymer: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2013 – Justin Rose: Round 1: 16th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 5th.
  • 2012 – Webb Simpson: Round 1: 23rd, Round 2: 29th, Round 3: 8th.
  • 2011 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2010 – Graeme McDowell: Round 1: 10th, Round 2 1st, Round 3: 2nd

Shots From the Lead: Below are the winners of the U.S. Open and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:

  • 2022 – Matt Fitzpatrick: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: level.
  • 2021 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 3 back.
  • 2020 – Bryson DeChambeau: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 2 back.
  • 2019 – Gary Woodland: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 2 ahead, Round 3: 1 ahead.
  • 2018 – Brooks Koepka: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: level.
  • 2017 – Brooks Koepka: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 1 back.
  • 2016 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 4 back.
  • 2015 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: level.
  • 2014 – Martin Kaymer: Round 1: 3 ahead, Round 2: 6 ahead, Round 3: 5 ahead.
  • 2013 – Justin Rose: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 2 back.
  • 2012 – Webb Simpson: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 6 back, Round 3: 4 back.
  • 2011 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 3 ahead, Round 2: 6 ahead, Round 3: 8 ahead.
  • 2010 – Graeme McDowell: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 2 ahead, Round 3: 3 back.

Incoming Form of U.S. Open winners since 2010:

  • Matt Fitzpatrick: 10th Canada/MC Memorial/5th PGA/2nd Wells Fargo.
  • Jon Rahm: WD Memorial/8th PGA/34th Byron/MC Quail.
  • Bryson DeChambeau: 25th Tour Champ/50th BMW Champ/MC Northern Trust/4th PGA.
  • Gary Woodland: 52nd Memorial/8th PGA/MC Quail Hollow/32nd Augusta.
  • Brooks Koepka: 30th TPC Southwind/2nd Colonial/11th TPC Sawgrass/42nd Quail.
  • Brooks Koepka: 37th TPC Southwind/31st Memorial/50th TPC4S/16th TPC Sawgrass.
  • Dustin Johnson: 5th TPC Southwind/3rd Memorial/12th TPC4S/28th TPC Sawgrass.
  • Jordan Spieth: 3rd Memorial/30th TPC4S/2nd Colonial/MC TPC Sawgrass.
  • Martin Kaymer: 12th Wentworth/29th TPC4S/1st TPC Sawgrass/18th Quail.
  • Justin Rose: 8th Memorial/50th Wentworth/MC TPC Sawgrass/15th TPC Louisiana.
  • Webb Simpson: MC Memorial/MC TPC Sawgrass/ 4th Quail/13th New Orleans.
  • Rory McIlroy: 5th Memorial/24th Wentworth/MC Quail/3rd Kuala Lumpur.
  • Graeme McDowell: 1st Celtic Manor/4th Madrid/28th Wentworth/26th TPC Sawgrass.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

  • 2022 – Hadwin – PM -4/66 – 125/1.
  • 2021 – Henley/Oosthuizen – AM/PM Split -4/67 – 100/1 & 45/1.
  • 2020 – Thomas – AM -5/65 – 25/1.
  • 2019 – Rose – PM -6/65 – 40/1.
  • 2018 – Henley/D Johnson/Piercy/Poulter – 2AM/2PM -1/69 – 125/1, 16/1, 200/1 & 100/1.
  • 2017 – Fowler – AM -7/65 – 40/1.
  • 2016 – Landry – AM -4/66.
  • 2015 – D Johnson/Stenson – Both AM -5/65.
  • 2014 – Kaymer – PM -5/65.
  • 2013 – Mickelson – AM -3/67.
  • 2012 – M Thompson – AM -4/66.
  • 2011 – McIlroy – PM -6/65.
  • 2010 – Casey/de Jonge/Micheel – All PM -2/69.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

  • 8 – Rory McIlroy.
  • 7 – Justin Rose.
  • 6 – Dustin Johnson.
  • 5 – Patrick Cantlay, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas.
  • 4 – Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama, Webb Simpson.
  • 3 – Keegan Bradley, Bryson DeChambeau, Lucas Glover, Matt Kuchar, Phil Mickelson, Francesco Molinari, Adam Scott.
  • 2 – Stewart Cink, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Sergio Garcia, Brian Harman, Billy Horschel, Martin Kaymer, Chris Kirk, K.H. Lee, Patrick Reed, Xander Schauffele.
  • 1 – Sam Burns, Padraig Harrington, Charley Hoffman, Max Homa, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Joaquin Niemann, J.T. Poston, Seamus Power, Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Scott Stallings.

Recent U.S. Open history features a new breed of champions with first-time Major winners galore. Indeed, going back to 2009, 11 of the last 14 champions had never captured a Major title.

So for me it’s interesting to look at the prices of first-time Major winners going back to Danny Willett wining the 2016 Masters.

  • 2023 Open Championship Cam Smith 28/1
  • 2023 US Open Matt Fitzpatrick 25/1
  • 2022 Masters Scottie Scheffler 16/1
  • 2021 US Open Jon Rahm 10/1 Favourite
  • 2021 Masters Hideki Matsuyama 45/1
  • 2020 US Open Bryson DeChambeau 25/1
  • 2020 PGA Championship Collin Morikawa 35/1
  • 2019 Open Championship Shane Lowry 70/1
  • 2019 US Open Gary Woodland 80/1
  • 2018 Open Championship Francesco Molinari 33/1
  • 2018 Masters Patrick Reed 50/1
  • 2017 PGA Championship Justin Thomas 45/1
  • 2017 US Open Brooks Koepka 50/1
  • 2016 PGA Championship Jimmy Walker 150/1
  • 2016 Open Championship Henrik Stenson 33/1
  • 2016 US Open Dustin Johnson 16/1
  • 2016 Masters Danny Willett 66/1

Overall it’s well worth noting that the average price for U.S. Open winners since 2015 is 29/1. Jordan Spieth won at 9/1 in 2015, fresh from a Masters win, and since then the winning prices have been 16/1 (2016 – Johnson), 45/1 (2017 – Koepka), 25/1 (2018 – Koepka), 80/1 (2019 – Woodland), 25/1 (2020 – DeChambeau), 10/1 (2021 – Rahm) and 25/1 (2023 – Fitzpatrick).

My US Open Tips For 2023 Are As Follows:

Brooks Koepka 3pts ew 11/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Brooks Koepka has always been a Major Championship monster.

The PGA Tour and now the LIV Tour has always been secondary to the Floridian. With 5 of Koepka’s 9 PGA Tour wins being Majors themselves, Brooks wants his legacy to be remembered purely on the volume of Major success and a U.S. Open win, just a month after winning the PGA Championship, is the sort of achievement that he plays the game for. For me he has both the motivation and the ability to win back-to-back United States-based Majors, as he did when winning both the U.S. Open (Shinnecock) and the PGA (Bellerive) in 2018.

And that’s the deal with Brooks who can mix it in all conditions and on all Major Championship golf courses, no matter the weather. In the past we have landed him at 20/1, 11/1 and 18/1 across his 3 PGA Championship wins, and I can’t really see a reason to swap allegiance for Los Angeles Country Club. With confidence now restored and potentially boosted by the announcement last week, I can only see Koepka, who additionally has 9 top-5 and 3 further top-10 finishes over and above his 5 Major wins since 2014, going well in Southern California.

-75 in all Major Championships since 2016, and with a formidable 70.01 Major Championship Scoring Average since the 2017 Masters, Brooks, when fit, has always been pretty straightforward to read. If the driver and approach play is peaking then watch out at the Majors. 7th for Strokes Gained Off the Tee and 5th for Approach at the PGA Championship, last time out at LIV Washington he was also 8th for Total Accuracy (Sum of Driving Accuracy & Greens in Regulation) plus was in the top 10 for daily scoring across both Rounds 2 and 3.  It appears he hasn’t downed tools just yet! RESULT: T17

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Viktor Hovland 2.5pts ew 16/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Outside of the top 4 in the betting, Viktor Hovland is a must-back for me, especially now he’s just landed his first United States PGA Tour title, and as titles go the Memorial Tournament isn’t a bad one to land! Shaking Jack Nicklaus’ hand just off the 18th green has to instantly boost your confidence, especially as it’s something that the likes of Scheffler, McIlroy, Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Cam Smith, Schauffele, Spieth and Thomas plus many more just haven’t experienced.

So can I see Hovland going back-to-back? Well the answer is obviously yes as he’s in my selections, and I’ll explain why in a few points. Firstly Viktor seems one of the most down-to-earth professional golfers I have ever seen. Forget the notion that he was out and about celebrating his Memorial victory for days on end; instead Hovland, who won in a playoff Sunday at Muirfield Village and earned $3.6 million, was on the bag for Zach Bauchou, his former roommate at Oklahoma State University on the Monday morning. That in a nutshell is Viktor Hovland.

Secondly Hovland is now an established Major Championship performer. His last 3 Major appearances have seen him finish 4th at the 2022 Open Championship, 7th at the 2023 Masters Tournament, and 2nd at the 2023 PGA Championship. It was only 4 weeks ago that Viktor gave Brooks Koepka all he wanted for 15 Sunday holes, until that fairway bunker on 16. It’s well worth remembering that Viktor was in the white heat of contending on a Major Sunday, whilst effectively in a Matchplay situation with Brooks as the rest had all melted away, or in the case of Scheffler was too far back to mount a live, credible winning challenge. That kind of experience will be valuable this week.

Finally Viktor right now is playing golf from the gods. Los Angeles Country Club will play perfectly to his knack of long and accurate driving, and when it comes to creative approach shots that the North Course will demand, there are very few better than the World Number 5. Even better, his chipping and pitching has improved immeasurably of late as has his putting with Viktor ranking 26th, 17th and 3rd for Strokes Gained Putting across Oak Hill, Colonial Country Club and Muirfield Village. For the record, all featured Bentgrass putting surfaces. RESULT: 19th

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Bryson DeChambeau 1.5pts ew 40/1 (10EW, 1/5) with William Hill

Go all the way back to Graeme McDowell in 2010 and the U.S. Open has seen winners between the 40/1 to 80/1 mark pretty often. G-Mac was 80/1, Simpson (2012) was 80/1, Kaymer (2014) was 40/1, Koepka (2017) was 45/1 and Gary Woodland as recently as 2019 was an 80/1 chance, backed at the time by my Golf Betting System podcast colleague Barry O’Hanrahan.

2020 U.S. Open champion Bryson DeChambeau can be backed at that juicy each-way price this week and I like where his game is at in 2023. Having lost 18lbs in 24 days, a slimline Bryson looks far healthier as does his golf. Incoming form of 5/4/9 is eye-catching for Californian Bryson, who has already won this title plus finished 4th at the 2020 PGA Championship (TPC Harding Park, California), 8th at the 2022 Open Championship (Sandwich) and 4th last month at the Oak Hill-hosted PGA Championship. He’s undoubtedly a Major performer, whilst I see plenty of players shorter in the market where you have to ask serious questions about when it comes to performing in the Major tests.

3rd, 5th, 1st and 7th for Driving Distance across his last 4 appearances, Bryson 23-style is hitting far more fairways and greens right now and across LIV Singapore to the PGA Championship he’s ranked 10th, 8th and 2nd for Ball Striking. More than happy on firm golf courses, Bryson is an 8-time PGA Tour winner, 7 of which have been on greens that have featured Bentgrass (3 pure Bentgrass with 4 Bent/Poa Annua mix). He’s also a Gil Hanse course specialist having won at Ridgewood (2018), TPC Boston (2018) and Winged Foot (2020). RESULT: T20

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Corey Conners 1pt EW 60/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

I’ll close with Corey Conners who is a decent each-way punt at this price.

Season-to-date numbers of 18th for Off the Tee, 22nd for Approach, 18th for Tee to Green and 24th for Strokes Gained Total tell you pretty much what you get with the 31 year-old Canadian. 30th for Driving Distance All Drives, 8th for Greens in Regulation, 17th for Ball Striking and in the top 75 for Approaches from above 200 yards, it’s obvious that Corey’s strengths are in the ball striking department, and that could well prove beneficial for a player who I think will welcome this different U.S. Open set-up.

A 2-time winner at the long and relatively tough TPC San Antonio, Corey is more than apt on Bermudagrass tee-to-green agronomy and on Bentgrass greens. A prime example is Augusta National where he’s finished 10th (2020), 8th (2021) and 6th (2022). 17th at the 2021 PGA Championship at Kiawah Island (10th after 54 holes) and 12th at the Oak Hill-hosted PGA Championship last month, where he was 2nd going into Sunday, Conners can play some excellent stuff on stringent tests if he can putt anywhere close to neutral.

7th, 23rd and 18th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green across Quail Hollow, Oak Hill and his home Canadian Open last week at Oakdale, I could see Corey going very well at Los Angeles Country Club, avoiding big trouble and hitting plenty of Greens in Regulation. He’ll also be likely buoyed by Nick Taylor’s win last week in Canada and by his own performance where he was 2nd at halfway and was a factor pretty much throughout, under the home microscope. RESULT: MC

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 11:50BST 12.6.23 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.